Author Topic: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)  (Read 13468 times)

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Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« on: August 23, 2016, 01:54:56 PM »

Offline mef730

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tl;dr: Harry Giles

The next draft class looks absolutely loaded. Check out where the next generation of stars is likely to land.


For NBA execs and scouts of teams such as the Sixers, Lakers and Celtics, it's never too early to start talking draft. And to help determine the most likely draft order, we have the ESPN Summer Forecast.

Remember: In a mock draft, we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft will likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our first Big Board of the year here.

1. Philadelphia 76ers*


Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard


Will the Sixers win the No. 1 pick for a second straight year? It's hardly a sure thing, because they'll be significantly better than they were last season, and they'll have more "competition" for the No. 1 pick.

Regardless of where they land, look for them to consider grabbing the top point guard available in a draft loaded with potential franchise PGs.

Fultz was terrific all summer for Team USA's under-18 squad. Although he isn't currently No. 1 on our Big Board, many scouts think he might end up there by the end of the season. And he can play off the ball as a 2-guard, making him more compatible with point forward Ben Simmons.

Fultz has size, athleticism and one of the most well-rounded games you'll find in an 18-year-old guard.

Odds of winning lottery (if they finish with the worst record): 25 percent

Projected record: 20-62

2. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*


Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward


The Billy-King-for-Celtics-MVP campaign continues, as Boston gets richer once again thanks to the infamous 2013 trade with King, the Nets' former GM.

Last year, the Celtics landed the No. 3 pick, Jaylen Brown, with a pick that previously belonged to Brooklyn. This year, the Celtics have the right to swap picks with Brooklyn. Given the Nets' roster, it's looking very likely that this pick will land in the top three or four.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Top 5 prospects for stellar 2017 NBA draft
Who are the best NBA prospects in the 2017 draft class? Chad Ford gives his top five and previews the big storylines to watch for next year.

Ford: Ranking top 30 NBA draft prospects
Chad Ford debuts his 2017 Big Board, ranking Josh Jackson, Harry Giles other top-30 prospects in what looks like one of the strongest drafts in the last decade.
If the Celtics pick here, Giles would be a very strong candidate. He was the consensus No. 1 player in his class before he tore his ACL prior to his senior season. If he's back to his explosive self as a freshman at Duke, he's a steal at No. 2. Think the next Chris Webber.

Odds of winning lottery (via Nets): 19.9 percent

Projected record: 20-62

3. Los Angeles Lakers*


Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward


The trade for Steve Nash is still hanging over the Lakers franchise.

If the Lakers land in the top three, then they keep their pick, just as in 2016.

If they fall to fourth or lower in the lottery, and they must send the pick to the 76ers. If the Lakers finish with the fourth-worst record, the lottery odds indicate there is a 62.2 percent chance that they'll send the pick to Philly. Right now, our ESPN Forecast crew has them right on the bubble.

If they keep the pick, they must send their unprotected first-rounder to Philly in 2018.

We're assuming for now that they will keep the pick, and want Josh Jackson.

Jackson is actually ranked No. 1 on our Big Board right now. He is super explosive, has an unbelievable motor and competes on both ends of the floor. He's a jump shot away from being a superstar.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent

Projected record: 25-57

4. Phoenix Suns


Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard


The Suns already have two starting point guards on their roster: Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. But at least one of them could be gone by the trade deadline or draft day in 2017.

Smith missed his senior season because of a torn ACL but looked like a monster this summer at the Adidas Nations camp. He's the most athletic point guard in the draft.

Odds of winning lottery (via Nets): 11.9 percent

Projected record: 26-56

5. Sacramento Kings*

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard


The Kings keep trying to find their way out of lottery purgatory, but our Forecast crew thinks it won't happen this year.

The last thing the Kings really need right now is more rookies. Still, a long-term answer at point guard is on the wish list, and Ntilikina, a pass-first PG from France, is the real deal.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent (if the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery, and are within the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers)

Projected record: 30-52

6. Denver Nuggets


Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward


The Nuggets have stockpiled some serious backcourt talent in the past two drafts. A combination of Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris looks like the backcourt of the future.

Isaac reminds some scouts of Brandon Ingram. He's a super tall, super skinny small forward who can shoot.

Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent

Projected record: 34-48

7. Orlando Magic


Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard


Elfrid Payton might have the starting point guard job right now, but the team could always use long-term depth, and Ball could be a star with a rare combination of elite court vision and scoring ability.

He averaged a triple-double as a high school senior. His game is a bit more a subject of debate among scouts than that of the other point guards on the list, but if he hits, he'll hit big.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent

Projected record: 35-47

8. New Orleans Pelicans


Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward


The Pelicans are another team that will be deeply disappointed if they don't make the playoffs, but in a crowded West, someone has to miss out.

Tatum is a prototypical NBA small forward on just about every metric but one: He doesn't have a great 3-point shot yet. Most of his damage is done in the midrange. Given the Pelicans' current lineup, he would be a long-term upgrade at the 3.

Odds of winning lottery (via Knicks): 2.8 percent

Projected record: 35-47

9. Miami Heat


Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward


The Heat took a significant step backward this summer, when they lost both Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. If Chris Bosh can't play again, the Heat's decline could get steeper. But there is still some real talent at this pick.

Rabb had a very strong freshman season at Cal. If he can get stronger and improve his outside shooting, he would be a great fit in Miami, especially as a potential Bosh replacement.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent

Projected record: 36-46

10. Milwaukee Bucks


De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard


Jason Kidd has been churning through point guards, and the current crop of Michael Carter-Williams and Tyler Ennis was on the trade block all summer. Although Matthew Dellavedova was a solid pick-up, he isn't the long-term answer.

Fox is often compared to a young John Wall. He's super quick and aggressive getting to the basket. If he can get stronger, cut down on turnovers and improve his jumper, he'd be a very interesting addition.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent

Projected record: 39-43

11. Minnesota Timberwolves*


Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard


The Wolves have a wealth of young riches right now. So much so that I wouldn't be surprised if they beat their Forecast prediction and end up in the playoffs.

Shooting continues to be a long-term need for Minnesota, and Ferguson really put himself on the NBA radar with a terrific shooting performance in the Nike Hoop Summit.

But he decommitted from Arizona to play pro ball in Australia. I'm not sure how it will affect his draft stock, but the draft doesn't have a lot of great shooters, which should help him.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent

Projected record: 39-43

12. Chicago Bulls


Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center


The Bulls replaced Joakim Noah with Robin Lopez this summer, but they could use more depth.

Allen needs to get stronger and tougher, but he is a good defender, moves well and impressed at the Nike Hoop Summit.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent

Projected record: 40-42

13. Dallas Mavericks


Marques Bolden
Duke
Freshman
Center


Andrew Bogut will hold down the middle for the Mavs this season. He's a terrific player when healthy, but he's 31 years old and he has had a long history of injuries.

Bolden has all the physical tools to be a dominant NBA center. If Mike Krzyzewski can get him to play hard at Duke this year, he should have a great future.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent

Projected record: 40-42

14. New York Knicks


Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard


The Knicks added some veteran help this summer in Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee. That should put them on the brink of the playoffs when teamed with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis.

Monk might be a bit undersized (6-foot-3, 185 pounds), but he's both an explosive athlete and a scorer. He could be a good long-term fit for the Knicks at the 2.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent

Projected record: 40-42

15. Washington Wizards


Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward


Bam Adebayo already has the body of an NBA veteran. He's tough, physical and athletic.

His on-court decision-making and offensive game are raw, but on a team such as the Wizards, he'd have plenty of time to develop. You can't teach his sort of toughness and motor.

Projected record: 41-41

16. Houston Rockets


Edmond Sumner
Xavier
Sophomore
Guard


Five of the first nine players taken in this mock were point guards. After they're gone, there's a pretty big drop-off in PG talent.

Sumner was one of the stars of the Nike Skills Academy this summer. He has terrific size for a point guard and great quickness. Given the dearth of point guards on the Rockets' roster, Sumner might be a good get.

Projected record: 41-41

17. Charlotte Hornets


OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunoby was a breakout star in the NCAA Tournament, and with his size, athleticism and ability to shoot 3s, he fits the type of 3-and-D player that scouts covet these days.

If he breaks out again this year, I'm not sure he'll still be around at No. 17.

Projected record: 43-39

18. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)*

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward


The Nuggets get this pick from the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top five, and this would be their second first-round pick.

They are loaded with some talented international players, and Markkanen would be another score. He's yet another 7-footer who can shoot 3s, rebound and score inside. He isn't an elite athlete, but the Nuggets have figured out as well as anyone how to utilize players with his skills.

Projected record: 43-39

19. Atlanta Hawks



Omer Yurtseven
NC State
Freshman
Center


Yurtseven scored 91 points and ripped down 28 boards in an under-18 game this summer. The guy can play.

If he gets cleared by the NCAA and has a great season for the Wolfpack, he could end up much higher on this list.

Projected record: 44-38

20. Oklahoma City Thunder


Carlton Bragg
Kansas
Sophomore
Forward


Many scouts walked away from Kansas' practices last season feeling that Bragg was the best NBA prospect on the squad.

He can play both the 3 and the 4 and can score from anywhere. He'll play a much bigger role on the team this year and could end up being a steal at this position in the draft.

Projected record: 44-38

21. Indiana Pacers


Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward


The Pacers actually dumped their 2016 first-rounder to land a power forward from the Nets, Thaddeus Young.

But Lydon is an intriguing prospect whose abilities to both shoot the ball and protect the rim will draw a lot of attention from scouts this year.

Projected record: 45-37

22. Utah Jazz

Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 18
Forward


Our Forecast team is very bullish on the Jazz improving this year.

Kurucs is a bit of a draft sleeper. His size, athleticism and shooting ability are all appealing, and he's a terrific athlete.

He doesn't get on the floor much at FC Barcelona, but the talent is clearly there.

Projected record: 45-37

23. Detroit Pistons


Grayson Allen
Duke
Junior
Guard


The Pistons took a major step forward last season and could use some scoring off the bench.

Allen provides shooting, athleticism and toughness. He's a polarizing player among scouts and can border on dirty play, but Van Gundy would love his mentality.

Projected record: 45-37

24. Portland Trail Blazers

Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward


Hartenstein can score from just about anywhere on the floor. He's still working on his feel for the game, and he can fall in love with his jumper, but he has a ton of skills that appeal to NBA scouts.

The Blazers are pretty deep at every position, which makes him a nice long-term play for them.

Projected record: 46-36

25. Toronto Raptors


Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 19
Forward/center

Raptors GM Masai Ujiri has never been shy about grabbing international talents, and at this point in the draft, getting a player such as Jeanne -- all 7-foot-2 of him -- seems like a good gamble.

He's skilled, versatile and fluid for a big man. He just needs to add a lot of strength.

Projected record: 51-31

26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)


Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward

The Nets lose 24 spots in the draft, thanks to that pick swap with Boston, but given the depth in this draft, it isn't the end of the world.

Bridges is one of the best athletes in the draft and has an NBA-ready body. He just needs to become a more consistent shooter.

Projected record: 51-31

27. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)*

Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard


This is the second first-rounder for the Raptors, and again, I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.

Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring acumen make him an attractive option.

Projected record: 52-30

28. Cleveland Cavaliers


Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Sophomore
Center


Bryant is huge, has great hands, rebounds, shoots a high percentage in the paint and can even step out and hit 3s. However, his slow feet are hurting him.

With no sure centers on the Cavaliers' roster (Tristan Thompson doesn't really count), Bryant could end up filling a long-term need.

Projected record: 57-25

29. San Antonio Spurs


Jaron Blossomgame
Clemson
Senior
Guard/forward


Blossomgame was one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball last season, and he seriously flirted with the draft before deciding to finish his senior season at Clemson.

He has size and athleticism and can really stroke the ball. At this point, it's his age that is hurting his draft stock. The Spurs obviously have Danny Green to do a lot of that work, but with Manu Ginobili likely in his last season, Blossomgame could be a nice fit.

Projected record: 57-25

30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*


Jalen Brunson
Villanova
Sophomore
Guard

The Jazz are actually loaded at the point right now, with George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack and Raul Neto.

Why add another? Because I've had several scouts swear to me that he is a great fit for Utah, with his unselfish but effective style.

Projected record: 67-15

*Traded picks

No. 1: The Magic will get the Sixers' pick if it is outside the top 11. ... No. 2: The Sixers will get the Lakers' pick if it is outside the top three. ... No. 3: The Celtics can swap first-round picks with the Nets. ... No. 5: The Sixers can swap picks with the Kings if Sacramento's pick is in the top 10. Also, the Bulls will get the Kings' pick if it is outside the top 10. ... No. 18: The Nuggets will get the Grizzlies' pick if it is outside the top five. ... No. 27: The Raptors will get the Clippers' pick if it is outside the top 14. ... No. 30: The Jazz will get the Warriors' pick.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2016, 02:08:13 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I'd rather go for Josh Jackson if we can get him. Giles really scares me with his knee injuries in the past.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 03:33:39 PM »

Offline TheTruthFot18

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I'm all for bashing the Lakers but Philly geez.

Two years in a row they are so close to getting two top 5 picks. This year seems even more likely.
The Nets will finish with the worst record and the Celtics will end up with the 4th pick.

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Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2016, 03:38:50 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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forecasting the Nets as the #2 in a deep draft is something to really look forward too.  I suspect the Nets will have a worse record than the Sixers this year and that's without them making a trade to balance out the roster.  all the other bottom teams from this past year have improved more than the Nets have (at least on paper)

only team I think could be the surprise 'tanker' of the year is Miami if there's no Bosh, Winslow doesn't develop and Dragic ends up being their best player.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2016, 03:45:40 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2016, 04:01:26 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.

Nah, I think this draft class will live up to it's hype. It's people's own fault for thinking their is an Anthony Davis level player in this draft when scouting says there isn't. Anyone who thinks their is a future top five player in this draft is going to be disappointed. I think it's fair to say Simmons would be taken number 1 in this draft as well. However, it's a deep draft filled with potential all stars.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2016, 04:03:27 PM »

Offline gift

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.

I think we'll start hearing rumblings before college ball even starts. Not that that means anything either. People can say it's weak and it still turns out strong.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2016, 04:12:25 PM »

Offline saltlover

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forecasting the Nets as the #2 in a deep draft is something to really look forward too.  I suspect the Nets will have a worse record than the Sixers this year and that's without them making a trade to balance out the roster.  all the other bottom teams from this past year have improved more than the Nets have (at least on paper)

only team I think could be the surprise 'tanker' of the year is Miami if there's no Bosh, Winslow doesn't develop and Dragic ends up being their best player.

I don't think Miami will be good enough to get more than the 8 seed, and will more than likely miss the playoffs, but there is still too much talent on that team to fall to bottom 3 territory.  The Nets have maybe one player who could start for them (Lopez could if Bosh is it and that's it), and I'd say the Heat also have the better bench.  I'm not trying to compliment the Heat here -- just trying to illustrate the difference between the Nets and even mediocre teams.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2016, 04:24:49 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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I like the sound of "the next Chris Webber."
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 04:33:20 PM by GetLucky »

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2016, 04:29:38 PM »

Offline number_n9ne

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.

I'll take the over.

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2016, 04:33:08 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I'd rather go for Josh Jackson if we can get him. Giles really scares me with his knee injuries in the past.

If he makes it through the season healthy and playing at a high level, I would not be too worried.  I think the Chris Webber comp is a bit of a stretch.  College Chris Webber is the player that made me like basketball.  If Giles has that combination of skill, athleticism, and size, even after consecutive knee injuries, I would pick him at #1.

Seriously, Chris Webber was ahead of his time.  He was made for today's NBA, not the NBA of 20 years ago.  Who tells their 25 year-old center who's shooting 34% from 3 for his career that he's A) no longer a center and B) should stop shooting 3s?  Sigh.

I haven't heard before that Harry Giles is that kind of player, but if he is, absolutely I'd pick him first, and would be stoked if we got him at 2, 3, or later.  (I've heard he's good, but not in that mold.)

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2016, 04:40:19 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Also, a prediction:

Jalen Brunson goes ahead of Grayson Allen.  The question is, in 10 months will I be correct, or in 10 months will I even remember I made this prediction?

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2016, 04:51:09 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.

Not this year. This one is loaded!

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2016, 05:05:05 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Over/under December 15th before we start hearing how overrated / weak this draft class is.

I think we'll start hearing rumblings before college ball even starts. Not that that means anything either. People can say it's weak and it still turns out strong.

It seems like every single year we hear, at some point, that the draft class is weak and overrated.  Over-analysis tends to do that.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Chad Ford 1.0 (8/23/16)
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2016, 05:05:52 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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Sounds good.

Let's hope Harry Giles takes Boston's academia seriously.

Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."