Author Topic: LeBron is due for an injury  (Read 5009 times)

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Re: LeBron is due for an injury
« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2016, 02:13:59 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I would imagine so, in all honesty. 

As you said not wishing an injury on him, but if Lebron James has just finished his 13th season in the NBA at the age of 31, moving on to 32. 

His career path has been eerily similar to that of KG up to this point...

* Lebron (like KG) came straight from high school to the NBA

* Lebron (like KG) was 19 years old during his first NBA season

* Lebron (like KG) played his 13th NBA season at the age of 31

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 987 regular season games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 38.98 MPG over those 13 seasons.  KG by the end of his 13th season had played 998 NBA games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 37.94 MPG over those 13 seasons.

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG.   KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.

* Lebron has played in 12 All-Star games, while KG (by the end of his 13th season) had played in 11 All-Star games.

* Lebron so far (over 13 NBA seasons) has been very durable - he's played in 92.5% of possible regular season games and has played < 69 games in a season only once.  KG was also incredibly durable during his first 13 NBA seasons - he had played in 93.6% of possible games and had only 1 season in which he played less then 71 games.

After his 13th season his body started to break down.

Over his final 8 seasons KG has managed only 464 games played out of a possible 656 (an average only 58 games played per season, or 70.7% attendance) and he averaged only only 27.06 MPG over that stretch.

KG took great care of his body his entire career and was incredibly durable, but at the end of the day he put a LOT of mileage on that 250 pound body of his, and his very physical style of play didn't help.

Lebron has been similarly durable so far, but he has put a similar amount of mileage on his own 250 pound frame, and plays a very physical game - it's only a matter of time (IMHO) before his body starts to break down from sheer wear and tear.

Off the top of my head I believe Kobe (who also entered the NBA from high school) also started to see his body breaking down around that same time in his career.

KG was lucky that he was such a good midrange shooter, and that probably helped a LOT to prolong his career by reducing some punishment on his body in his later years.  The same could be said about Kobe.  Lebron has never been a good outside shooter, so unless he makes some dramatic strides in that area, I can't see his body lasting any longer then KG's did.
that's a tommy point if i ever seen one :D
For sure a great post, but James is much closer physically to a guy like Karl Malone (you know 6'9", 250 pounds of solid muscle), who never got hurt until he left Utah for 1 season and who 13 seasons in was aged 34, but had played in 1061 of a possible 1066 games and 137 playoff games (so pretty close to James since he had a number of deep playoff runs that KG never had).  Malone was also still playing huge minutes and was the MVP in year 12.  In fact, Malone was still so good that he was the MVP again in his 14th season, the strike shortened 50 game season and would miss just 5 games in his 14th through 18th seasons at about 37 minutes a game.

James obviously isn't going to be as a great a player as he was in his prime, but this notion that he has been healthy and thus must get hurt because it happens to everyone, is just silly because it doesn't really happen to everyone.  Malone healthy until the last year.  Duncan healthy his entire career.  Kareem healthy basically his entire career.  And they aren't the only great players that played heavy minutes and almost every game.  Heck Pierce played 15 seasons in Boston and only had one season where he was injured for any period of time (06/07).  Jordan had that one flukey injury in season 3, but otherwise barely missed a game outside of self-imposed hiatuses. 

James has shown very little sign he will get injured.  Sure, he statistically will start to fade, but just because you lose a step doesn't mean you will get injured.

But LeBron's game is way different than Kareem, Malone, or Duncan.

LeBron relies on speed, and agility, none of those other guys could come close to making the cuts he does. They also didn't need to jump as high, as they were taller and longer.

Kareem barely needed to leave the ground for blocks and rebounds. Malone was shorter, and was built like a tank, but he wasn't dancing around like a gazelle, he used pure strength to impose his will.

LeBron's style of play might put a beating on his knees and legs, as it did KG and Kobe. And LeBron's heavy frame and sheer speed will put even more torque on his joints than those guys.
How about Dr. J?  Close enough for you.  Didn't play in less than 71 games (his second season) until his final year (16th season) in 86/87 when he still managed 60 games.  Had lots of playoff games as well. 

Maybe you prefer Boston's own Hondo who barely missed a game.  Or maybe Reggie Miller. Or  George Gervin.  Or Gary Payton.  Or Elvin Hayes.  Or Moses Malone.  Or Alex English.  Should I go on?

I also noticed you ignored Pierce and Jordan (each with one injury but near perfect health the rest of the time).

* Reggie Miller entered the league at 22 (three years older then KG / Lebron) so when he was 31 he was only in his 10th season.  Over his first 13 seasons he averaged > 37 MPG only twice, and he played a similar style of play to Ray Allen - lots of running off screens and lots of outside shooting - he didn't have an overly aggressive / physical style of play.  He was also skinny as a twig at 6'7" / 185 lbs.  Put all that together and there's nowhere near as much strain on that body as there would be for guys like Lebron and KG - 250 pound athletic big men who play with extreme aggressiveness. 

* Michael Jordan entered the NBA at age 21 (not 19) and missed a LOT of time over his career.  He played 18 games in 85/86, zero games in 93/94, 17 games in 94/95, then didn't play a single game for three years (from 98/99 to 00/01).

* Payton entered the league at 22 years old (three years older then Lebron / KG did) so he wasn't in his 13th season until he was 34 years old.  After that year he still played a lot of games, but his minutes and his production dropped off dramatically after that point.  After 10 straight seasons averaging at least 19 PPG / 38 MPG (including his 13th year).  He remained relatively productive in his 14th seasons (14.6 PPG / 34.5 MPG), then over his final three seasons he dropped off a clii to the point hwere he was pretty much a "backup"caliber player, averaging 8.1 PPG / 27.8 MPG over that stretch.

* Karl Malone lasted a very long time, but he changed his game late in his career and became more of a jump shooter, less of a banger.

Anyway of course there will be examples of some guys who did last a long time, but how many of those guys have been hauling a 250 pound frame around for an average of 39 MPG, while playing an incredibly physical/intense style of game, since the day the left high school?  The answer is, not many. 

Lebron may well continue to put up star numbers well into his 30's (like Kobe did) while also remaining fairly healthy - but I think it's a long shot. 

A quick look at Dwyane Wade is another great example of a guy who played a very physical/intense game, and who started to break down after he started getting in to his 30's. 

The problem with Lebron is that unlike guys like Kobe and Malone, I don't think Lebron is an especially tough individual.  I don't see him as the "I'll play through any pain to win" type of guy.  I see him more as the Derek Rose "lean towards caution" type.  That might be the best thing for him if he wants to extend his career to be honest, but it may also mean significant missed games.

Re: LeBron is due for an injury
« Reply #31 on: August 23, 2016, 03:05:23 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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This is a really well written out response. Unfortunately with a poster that has an acknowledged pro Lebron angle facts are often misinterpreted as an attack on Lebron.

Re: LeBron is due for an injury
« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2016, 08:18:08 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I would imagine so, in all honesty. 

As you said not wishing an injury on him, but if Lebron James has just finished his 13th season in the NBA at the age of 31, moving on to 32. 

His career path has been eerily similar to that of KG up to this point...

* Lebron (like KG) came straight from high school to the NBA

* Lebron (like KG) was 19 years old during his first NBA season

* Lebron (like KG) played his 13th NBA season at the age of 31

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 987 regular season games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 38.98 MPG over those 13 seasons.  KG by the end of his 13th season had played 998 NBA games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 37.94 MPG over those 13 seasons.

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG.   KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.

* Lebron has played in 12 All-Star games, while KG (by the end of his 13th season) had played in 11 All-Star games.

* Lebron so far (over 13 NBA seasons) has been very durable - he's played in 92.5% of possible regular season games and has played < 69 games in a season only once.  KG was also incredibly durable during his first 13 NBA seasons - he had played in 93.6% of possible games and had only 1 season in which he played less then 71 games.

After his 13th season his body started to break down.

Over his final 8 seasons KG has managed only 464 games played out of a possible 656 (an average only 58 games played per season, or 70.7% attendance) and he averaged only only 27.06 MPG over that stretch.

KG took great care of his body his entire career and was incredibly durable, but at the end of the day he put a LOT of mileage on that 250 pound body of his, and his very physical style of play didn't help.

Lebron has been similarly durable so far, but he has put a similar amount of mileage on his own 250 pound frame, and plays a very physical game - it's only a matter of time (IMHO) before his body starts to break down from sheer wear and tear.

Off the top of my head I believe Kobe (who also entered the NBA from high school) also started to see his body breaking down around that same time in his career.

KG was lucky that he was such a good midrange shooter, and that probably helped a LOT to prolong his career by reducing some punishment on his body in his later years.  The same could be said about Kobe.  Lebron has never been a good outside shooter, so unless he makes some dramatic strides in that area, I can't see his body lasting any longer then KG's did.
that's a tommy point if i ever seen one :D
For sure a great post, but James is much closer physically to a guy like Karl Malone (you know 6'9", 250 pounds of solid muscle), who never got hurt until he left Utah for 1 season and who 13 seasons in was aged 34, but had played in 1061 of a possible 1066 games and 137 playoff games (so pretty close to James since he had a number of deep playoff runs that KG never had).  Malone was also still playing huge minutes and was the MVP in year 12.  In fact, Malone was still so good that he was the MVP again in his 14th season, the strike shortened 50 game season and would miss just 5 games in his 14th through 18th seasons at about 37 minutes a game.

James obviously isn't going to be as a great a player as he was in his prime, but this notion that he has been healthy and thus must get hurt because it happens to everyone, is just silly because it doesn't really happen to everyone.  Malone healthy until the last year.  Duncan healthy his entire career.  Kareem healthy basically his entire career.  And they aren't the only great players that played heavy minutes and almost every game.  Heck Pierce played 15 seasons in Boston and only had one season where he was injured for any period of time (06/07).  Jordan had that one flukey injury in season 3, but otherwise barely missed a game outside of self-imposed hiatuses. 

James has shown very little sign he will get injured.  Sure, he statistically will start to fade, but just because you lose a step doesn't mean you will get injured.

But LeBron's game is way different than Kareem, Malone, or Duncan.

LeBron relies on speed, and agility, none of those other guys could come close to making the cuts he does. They also didn't need to jump as high, as they were taller and longer.

Kareem barely needed to leave the ground for blocks and rebounds. Malone was shorter, and was built like a tank, but he wasn't dancing around like a gazelle, he used pure strength to impose his will.

LeBron's style of play might put a beating on his knees and legs, as it did KG and Kobe. And LeBron's heavy frame and sheer speed will put even more torque on his joints than those guys.
How about Dr. J?  Close enough for you.  Didn't play in less than 71 games (his second season) until his final year (16th season) in 86/87 when he still managed 60 games.  Had lots of playoff games as well. 

Maybe you prefer Boston's own Hondo who barely missed a game.  Or maybe Reggie Miller. Or  George Gervin.  Or Gary Payton.  Or Elvin Hayes.  Or Moses Malone.  Or Alex English.  Should I go on?

I also noticed you ignored Pierce and Jordan (each with one injury but near perfect health the rest of the time).

* Reggie Miller entered the league at 22 (three years older then KG / Lebron) so when he was 31 he was only in his 10th season.  Over his first 13 seasons he averaged > 37 MPG only twice, and he played a similar style of play to Ray Allen - lots of running off screens and lots of outside shooting - he didn't have an overly aggressive / physical style of play.  He was also skinny as a twig at 6'7" / 185 lbs.  Put all that together and there's nowhere near as much strain on that body as there would be for guys like Lebron and KG - 250 pound athletic big men who play with extreme aggressiveness. 

* Michael Jordan entered the NBA at age 21 (not 19) and missed a LOT of time over his career.  He played 18 games in 85/86, zero games in 93/94, 17 games in 94/95, then didn't play a single game for three years (from 98/99 to 00/01).

* Payton entered the league at 22 years old (three years older then Lebron / KG did) so he wasn't in his 13th season until he was 34 years old.  After that year he still played a lot of games, but his minutes and his production dropped off dramatically after that point.  After 10 straight seasons averaging at least 19 PPG / 38 MPG (including his 13th year).  He remained relatively productive in his 14th seasons (14.6 PPG / 34.5 MPG), then over his final three seasons he dropped off a clii to the point hwere he was pretty much a "backup"caliber player, averaging 8.1 PPG / 27.8 MPG over that stretch.

* Karl Malone lasted a very long time, but he changed his game late in his career and became more of a jump shooter, less of a banger.

Anyway of course there will be examples of some guys who did last a long time, but how many of those guys have been hauling a 250 pound frame around for an average of 39 MPG, while playing an incredibly physical/intense style of game, since the day the left high school?  The answer is, not many. 

Lebron may well continue to put up star numbers well into his 30's (like Kobe did) while also remaining fairly healthy - but I think it's a long shot. 

A quick look at Dwyane Wade is another great example of a guy who played a very physical/intense game, and who started to break down after he started getting in to his 30's. 

The problem with Lebron is that unlike guys like Kobe and Malone, I don't think Lebron is an especially tough individual.  I don't see him as the "I'll play through any pain to win" type of guy.  I see him more as the Derek Rose "lean towards caution" type.  That might be the best thing for him if he wants to extend his career to be honest, but it may also mean significant missed games.
I have no doubt James' minutes and production will go down.  In fact that has already started.  But losing a step and getting injured are two vastly different things.  That is the point I have been making.  Plenty of players go through their entire careers with very little missed time.  Plenty of players are always playing through injuries (Shaq for example was a consistent mid-60 game played guy).  Plenty of players are relatively healthy early on and then have a bunch of injuries late.  Some guys have a bunch of early injuries and then bounce back for relatively full health (Big Z).  Some guys have 1 catastrophic injury but are otherwise healthy (like Jordan - maybe Paul George will be in this category).  There is no consistent pattern or consistent career path, where injuries are concerned (everyone loses athleticism and stats go down at the end of a career - again that is different than an injury). 
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