I would imagine so, in all honesty.
As you said not wishing an injury on him, but if Lebron James has just finished his 13th season in the NBA at the age of 31, moving on to 32.
His career path has been eerily similar to that of KG up to this point...
* Lebron (like KG) came straight from high school to the NBA
* Lebron (like KG) was 19 years old during his first NBA season
* Lebron (like KG) played his 13th NBA season at the age of 31
* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 987 regular season games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 38.98 MPG over those 13 seasons. KG by the end of his 13th season had played 998 NBA games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 37.94 MPG over those 13 seasons.
* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG. KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.
* Lebron has played in 12 All-Star games, while KG (by the end of his 13th season) had played in 11 All-Star games.
* Lebron so far (over 13 NBA seasons) has been very durable - he's played in 92.5% of possible regular season games and has played < 69 games in a season only once. KG was also incredibly durable during his first 13 NBA seasons - he had played in 93.6% of possible games and had only 1 season in which he played less then 71 games.
After his 13th season his body started to break down.
Over his final 8 seasons KG has managed only 464 games played out of a possible 656 (an average only 58 games played per season, or 70.7% attendance) and he averaged only only 27.06 MPG over that stretch.
KG took great care of his body his entire career and was incredibly durable, but at the end of the day he put a LOT of mileage on that 250 pound body of his, and his very physical style of play didn't help.
Lebron has been similarly durable so far, but he has put a similar amount of mileage on his own 250 pound frame, and plays a very physical game - it's only a matter of time (IMHO) before his body starts to break down from sheer wear and tear.
Off the top of my head I believe Kobe (who also entered the NBA from high school) also started to see his body breaking down around that same time in his career.
KG was lucky that he was such a good midrange shooter, and that probably helped a LOT to prolong his career by reducing some punishment on his body in his later years. The same could be said about Kobe. Lebron has never been a good outside shooter, so unless he makes some dramatic strides in that area, I can't see his body lasting any longer then KG's did.
that's a tommy point if i ever seen one
For sure a great post, but James is much closer physically to a guy like Karl Malone (you know 6'9", 250 pounds of solid muscle), who never got hurt until he left Utah for 1 season and who 13 seasons in was aged 34, but had played in 1061 of a possible 1066 games and 137 playoff games (so pretty close to James since he had a number of deep playoff runs that KG never had). Malone was also still playing huge minutes and was the MVP in year 12. In fact, Malone was still so good that he was the MVP again in his 14th season, the strike shortened 50 game season and would miss just 5 games in his 14th through 18th seasons at about 37 minutes a game.
James obviously isn't going to be as a great a player as he was in his prime, but this notion that he has been healthy and thus must get hurt because it happens to everyone, is just silly because it doesn't really happen to everyone. Malone healthy until the last year. Duncan healthy his entire career. Kareem healthy basically his entire career. And they aren't the only great players that played heavy minutes and almost every game. Heck Pierce played 15 seasons in Boston and only had one season where he was injured for any period of time (06/07). Jordan had that one flukey injury in season 3, but otherwise barely missed a game outside of self-imposed hiatuses.
James has shown very little sign he will get injured. Sure, he statistically will start to fade, but just because you lose a step doesn't mean you will get injured.
But LeBron's game is way different than Kareem, Malone, or Duncan.
LeBron relies on speed, and agility, none of those other guys could come close to making the cuts he does. They also didn't need to jump as high, as they were taller and longer.
Kareem barely needed to leave the ground for blocks and rebounds. Malone was shorter, and was built like a tank, but he wasn't dancing around like a gazelle, he used pure strength to impose his will.
LeBron's style of play might put a beating on his knees and legs, as it did KG and Kobe. And LeBron's heavy frame and sheer speed will put even more torque on his joints than those guys.
How about Dr. J? Close enough for you. Didn't play in less than 71 games (his second season) until his final year (16th season) in 86/87 when he still managed 60 games. Had lots of playoff games as well.
Maybe you prefer Boston's own Hondo who barely missed a game. Or maybe Reggie Miller. Or George Gervin. Or Gary Payton. Or Elvin Hayes. Or Moses Malone. Or Alex English. Should I go on?
I also noticed you ignored Pierce and Jordan (each with one injury but near perfect health the rest of the time).
Huh? My post referenced your post, which mentioned, Duncan, Malone, and Kareem, who are all vastly different players than LeBron. Those were poor comparisons for the reasons I mentioned above.
Hondo, Dr. J, and Pierce are much closer. I would add though that LeBron is 40 pounds heavier than Erving, and nearly 50 pounds heavier than Havlicek. And Pierce never relied on his athleticism as much as Lebron does.
We all know Pierce's injuries slowed him down later in his career. It might not have been one catastrophic injury, but they did take their toll.
That's what happens when you get old.
LeBron seems to be a freak. I'm sure he has some significant chemical assistance as well. It remains to be seen exactly what will happen, but it's not unreasonable to think his play will decline due to wear and tear as he ages.
I think he's a risk for a serious injury because of his particularly explosive play style. Jordan became more of a perimeter player later in his career, maybe that helped lengthen it. Reggie Miller didn't venture inside too often.
Pierce drove to the rim less and less as the years wore on.
It will be interesting to see what happens with The King. But I tend to agree with the OP and Crimson Stallion that an injury might be looming.