LeBron is due for an injury

[JSD]

I'm not wishing injury on him, I'm just saying it's kind of crazy that to this point in his career, he's never missed significant time due to injury. It's actually unprecedented.

So the question is, are the Celtics better than a LeBronless Cavs team? Are the Celtics a LeBron injury away from being in the Finals?

[crimson_stallion]

I would imagine so, in all honesty. 

As you said not wishing an injury on him, but if Lebron James has just finished his 13th season in the NBA at the age of 31, moving on to 32. 

His career path has been eerily similar to that of KG up to this point...

* Lebron (like KG) came straight from high school to the NBA

* Lebron (like KG) was 19 years old during his first NBA season

* Lebron (like KG) played his 13th NBA season at the age of 31

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 987 regular season games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 38.98 MPG over those 13 seasons.  KG by the end of his 13th season had played 998 NBA games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 37.94 MPG over those 13 seasons.

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG.   KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.

* Lebron has played in 12 All-Star games, while KG (by the end of his 13th season) had played in 11 All-Star games.

* Lebron so far (over 13 NBA seasons) has been very durable - he's played in 92.5% of possible regular season games and has played < 69 games in a season only once.  KG was also incredibly durable during his first 13 NBA seasons - he had played in 93.6% of possible games and had only 1 season in which he played less then 71 games.

After his 13th season his body started to break down.

Over his final 8 seasons KG has managed only 464 games played out of a possible 656 (an average only 58 games played per season, or 70.7% attendance) and he averaged only only 27.06 MPG over that stretch.

KG took great care of his body his entire career and was incredibly durable, but at the end of the day he put a LOT of mileage on that 250 pound body of his, and his very physical style of play didn't help.

Lebron has been similarly durable so far, but he has put a similar amount of mileage on his own 250 pound frame, and plays a very physical game - it's only a matter of time (IMHO) before his body starts to break down from sheer wear and tear.

Off the top of my head I believe Kobe (who also entered the NBA from high school) also started to see his body breaking down around that same time in his career.

KG was lucky that he was such a good midrange shooter, and that probably helped a LOT to prolong his career by reducing some punishment on his body in his later years.  The same could be said about Kobe.  Lebron has never been a good outside shooter, so unless he makes some dramatic strides in that area, I can't see his body lasting any longer then KG's did.

[JSD]

Great breakdown, crimson_stallion. You should have been the original poster. TP

[jpotter33]

I've been saying this for awhile, too. He's just got too many miles on his body to not start seeing somewhat of a reduction in his play/athleticism and/or injury avoidance. We're clearly better than a Lebron-less Cavs team, and even a significant Lebron injury during the season would give us a good chance at the number 1 seed and knocking them off in the playoffs.

[Moranis]

Duncan played 19 seasons and was never seriously injured.  Malone played 18 seasons in Utah and never missed more than 2 games in the regular season and was still playing over 36 minutes a game his last year there.  Kareem played 20 seasons and had just 1 season under 76 games until his last one of 74.  I'm sure there are others.  James' health is not unprecedented nor is he due for an injury.

[GreenWarrior]

Lebron plays more of a contact game than Duncan ever did. LeBron also plays a lot more above the rim, same for Malone really. guys who play that way eventually wear down.

I gotta say though, I don't like the title of the thread at all, I want the C's to beat the Cavs at full strength not with some excuse as to why they lost.

[kne]

I gotta say though, I don't like the title of the thread at all, I want the C's to beat the Cavs at full strength not with some excuse as to why they lost.

+1. He is not on our team but LeBron is one of the greatest, if not all time then at least of our generation. Pierce has been his nemesis in the beginning of his career, I would like our current team - and not an injury - to take that spot in the end.

[Celtics4ever]

He has missed some dunks he used to make, so I think the slow slide is starting.   But I do not think we should wish ill on him tis bad for our karma.   I know the OP stated this was not the case but even with that disclaimer people will think otherwise.

LeBron is one of the greatest, if not all time

He is not even close to the greatest of all time.   That is absurd.

[nebist]

He's on the best steroids and HGH in the world. He's not getting injured.

[JBcat]

Even if he is not getting injured I would say he is due for at least a little decline in his play.

[Moranis]

LeBron is one of the greatest, if not all time

He is not even close to the greatest of all time.   That is absurd.

I don't think he has reached Jordan, but it is far from absurd to claim that a guy with 4 MVP's, 3 championships, and with the ranking on the all time lists for points (11th), assists (18th), steals (24th), rebounds (99th), and blocks (137th) that James has is not one of, and possibly the greatest of all time.  If he just matches the prior season this upcoming season, he will finish next year 7th all time in points scored, move up to 13th all time for assists, 18th in steals, around 76th in rebounds (depending on what some other active guys do), and around 125th in blocks (again depending on other active guys).  And in the playoffs he is 21st in blocked shots, but is in the top 5 for points, assists, and steals, and top 10 for rebounds. 

James is clearly one of the best players of all time and you can make an argument he is the greatest player of all time.  Again I don't think he is there yet (and he may never get there), but it is far from absurd.

[Ed Hollison]

He's on the best steroids and HGH in the world. He's not getting injured.

Agree. He's going to play at a high level, mostly injury free, through his late 30s at least.

[mgent]

I would imagine so, in all honesty. 

As you said not wishing an injury on him, but if Lebron James has just finished his 13th season in the NBA at the age of 31, moving on to 32. 

His career path has been eerily similar to that of KG up to this point...

* Lebron (like KG) came straight from high school to the NBA

* Lebron (like KG) was 19 years old during his first NBA season

* Lebron (like KG) played his 13th NBA season at the age of 31

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 987 regular season games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 38.98 MPG over those 13 seasons.  KG by the end of his 13th season had played 998 NBA games out of a possible 1,066 and averaged 37.94 MPG over those 13 seasons.

* By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG.   KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.

* Lebron has played in 12 All-Star games, while KG (by the end of his 13th season) had played in 11 All-Star games.

* Lebron so far (over 13 NBA seasons) has been very durable - he's played in 92.5% of possible regular season games and has played < 69 games in a season only once.  KG was also incredibly durable during his first 13 NBA seasons - he had played in 93.6% of possible games and had only 1 season in which he played less then 71 games.

After his 13th season his body started to break down.

Over his final 8 seasons KG has managed only 464 games played out of a possible 656 (an average only 58 games played per season, or 70.7% attendance) and he averaged only only 27.06 MPG over that stretch.

KG took great care of his body his entire career and was incredibly durable, but at the end of the day he put a LOT of mileage on that 250 pound body of his, and his very physical style of play didn't help.

Lebron has been similarly durable so far, but he has put a similar amount of mileage on his own 250 pound frame, and plays a very physical game - it's only a matter of time (IMHO) before his body starts to break down from sheer wear and tear.

Off the top of my head I believe Kobe (who also entered the NBA from high school) also started to see his body breaking down around that same time in his career.

KG was lucky that he was such a good midrange shooter, and that probably helped a LOT to prolong his career by reducing some punishment on his body in his later years.  The same could be said about Kobe.  Lebron has never been a good outside shooter, so unless he makes some dramatic strides in that area, I can't see his body lasting any longer then KG's did.

Don't forget to factor the lockouts into those numbers.  That one season LeBron played less than 69 games, he actually played in every game.

[mr. dee]

Lebron plays more of a contact game than Duncan ever did. LeBron also plays a lot more above the rim, same for Malone really. guys who play that way eventually wear down.

I gotta say though, I don't like the title of the thread at all, I want the C's to beat the Cavs at full strength not with some excuse as to why they lost.

To be fair, Lebron never beat the Celtics when healthy.

2011 - No Rondo, injured Shaq
2012 - One leg Ray, no Bradley, no Jeff Green

[Surferdad]

By the end of his 13th season Lebron has played in 199 playoff games at an average of 42.13 MPG.   KG by the end of his 13th season had played 73 playoff games at an average of 40.96 MPG.

Lebron makes a very deep playoff run every year.  He is effectively playing close to 100 games per season.  This is why he has started taking a "vacation" in the middle of the season.  My bet is he will continue to modify his schedule, his MPG and playing style to continue performing at a high level in the playoffs for the next 3-5 years.