Peltons biggest losers and winners articles

[celticsclay]

Hey all,

It being a slow day and all I saw an interesting headline on NBA, article by Pelton on who were the biggest NBA losers. Pelton is actually a pretty decent writer and pretty into analytics. Would be curious if anyone with insider wanted to summarize who the biggest losers were from this article

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17252740/oklahoma-city-thunder-nine-biggest-offseason-losers-nba

TP in advance for anyone sharing the news.

[Moranis]

Thunder - Lost Durant
Heat - Lost Wade, Bosh uncertainty
Spurs - Gain of Gasol doesn't equal Loss of Duncan, Diaw, Marjanovic
Bulls - got better but very weird fit
Magic - Good adds in Biyombo and Ibaka, but again very weird lineup fit
Kings - Not bad, but don't fit new head coach strengths
Lakers - messed up future cap room on midtier guys
Knicks - same as Lakers
Blazers - lost cap flexibility, but were going to anyway, but now will pay tax in 17/18 for guys like Evan Turner (who isn't worth that type of salary or the tax)

[PhoSita]

I'm not convinced the Bulls will be better.  The fit is just horrible for those guys, and they might have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league unless Rondo and Wade really buy in.


The Lakers and Knicks might have blown cap space, but nobody was gonna sign with those teams anytime soon anyway.

I don't blame the Blazers for using their cap space, either, but I don't at all understand the way they used it.  I just don't see the point of giving that much to Turner.

The Blazers would've been better off signing Deng and Mozgov!


I like that the Magic made aggressive moves to improve their team.  I don't like that they chose Payton and Fournier over Oladipo, or that they decided to load up on defensive bigs when their biggest problem is a lack of shooting and offensive creation.  Aaron Gordon is not a wing.


I think the Spurs will be worse than last year, but probably better than they would've been if they'd kept Duncan, Diaw, and Marjonovic for another year.

[celticsclay]

Thunder - Lost Durant
Heat - Lost Wade, Bosh uncertainty
Spurs - Gain of Gasol doesn't equal Loss of Duncan, Diaw, Marjanovic
Bulls - got better but very weird fit
Magic - Good adds in Biyombo and Ibaka, but again very weird lineup fit
Kings - Not bad, but don't fit new head coach strengths
Lakers - messed up future cap room on midtier guys
Knicks - same as Lakers
Blazers - lost cap flexibility, but were going to anyway, but now will pay tax in 17/18 for guys like Evan Turner (who isn't worth that type of salary or the tax)

Thanks. Tp. I would agree with most of that, probably slightly disagree on the Spurs, at least for their reasoning. Gasol really isn't that much worse than Timmy D dragging his legs around. Diaw is a pretty meh bench player at this stage of his career and Marjanovic only played garbage time. They could be marginally worse, but definitely not a huge loss.

I am surprised the Nets were not mentioned as a loser. They came in with tons and tons of cap space. Got screwed by two teams matching their overpriced offers and ended up with Lin, Foye and Scola.

[Moranis]

I'm not convinced the Bulls will be better.  The fit is just horrible for those guys, and they might have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league unless Rondo and Wade really buy in.


The Lakers and Knicks might have blown cap space, but nobody was gonna sign with those teams anytime soon anyway.

I don't blame the Blazers for using their cap space, either, but I don't at all understand the way they used it.  I just don't see the point of giving that much to Turner.

The Blazers would've been better off signing Deng and Mozgov!


I like that the Magic made aggressive moves to improve their team.  I don't like that they chose Payton and Fournier over Oladipo, or that they decided to load up on defensive bigs when their biggest problem is a lack of shooting and offensive creation.  Aaron Gordon is not a wing.


I think the Spurs will be worse than last year, but probably better than they would've been if they'd kept Duncan, Diaw, and Marjonovic for another year.

I don't mind the Knicks moves so much, but the Lakers moves make no sense at all.  Deng and Mozgov aren't the long term answer, but they signed them both to big long term deals.  They should have just done what they did the prior year and sign guys to 1 year contracts (maybe 2 years for a guy like Mozgov).  And while I agree the Lakers aren't likely to sign any max contract players until the three young guys pan out, they certainly could have tried to get some younger mid-tier free agents again next summer especially with their incentive to again finish in the bottom three of the league.

[celticsclay]

I'm not convinced the Bulls will be better.  The fit is just horrible for those guys, and they might have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league unless Rondo and Wade really buy in.


The Lakers and Knicks might have blown cap space, but nobody was gonna sign with those teams anytime soon anyway.

I don't blame the Blazers for using their cap space, either, but I don't at all understand the way they used it.  I just don't see the point of giving that much to Turner.

The Blazers would've been better off signing Deng and Mozgov!


I like that the Magic made aggressive moves to improve their team.  I don't like that they chose Payton and Fournier over Oladipo, or that they decided to load up on defensive bigs when their biggest problem is a lack of shooting and offensive creation.  Aaron Gordon is not a wing.


I think the Spurs will be worse than last year, but probably better than they would've been if they'd kept Duncan, Diaw, and Marjonovic for another year.

I don't mind the Knicks moves so much, but the Lakers moves make no sense at all.  Deng and Mozgov aren't the long term answer, but they signed them both to big long term deals.  They should have just done what they did the prior year and sign guys to 1 year contracts (maybe 2 years for a guy like Mozgov).  And while I agree the Lakers aren't likely to sign any max contract players until the three young guys pan out, they certainly could have tried to get some younger mid-tier free agents again next summer especially with their incentive to again finish in the bottom three of the league.

I don't love those moves for them, especially Mosgov (can he even be a low end starting center?). However, I don't think they could intentionally have gunned for the worst record in the league again without really hurting the development of randle and russell. Last year they decided to turn into a carnival show with Scott making tanking moves, Kobe having free reign to jack and puzzling rotation moves. Keep in mind that they could finish with the worst record and still lose the pick. Entering the third year of Randle's contract they have to give him a chance to see if he can be a building block. Realistically with him in his 3rd year, Clarkson in his 3rd year, Russell in his 2nd year (plus ingram) they should all be good enough to not be the absolute worst team in the league.

[PhoSita]

Thunder - Lost Durant
Heat - Lost Wade, Bosh uncertainty
Spurs - Gain of Gasol doesn't equal Loss of Duncan, Diaw, Marjanovic
Bulls - got better but very weird fit
Magic - Good adds in Biyombo and Ibaka, but again very weird lineup fit
Kings - Not bad, but don't fit new head coach strengths
Lakers - messed up future cap room on midtier guys
Knicks - same as Lakers
Blazers - lost cap flexibility, but were going to anyway, but now will pay tax in 17/18 for guys like Evan Turner (who isn't worth that type of salary or the tax)

Thanks. Tp. I would agree with most of that, probably slightly disagree on the Spurs, at least for their reasoning. Gasol really isn't that much worse than Timmy D dragging his legs around. Diaw is a pretty meh bench player at this stage of his career and Marjanovic only played garbage time. They could be marginally worse, but definitely not a huge loss.

I am surprised the Nets were not mentioned as a loser. They came in with tons and tons of cap space. Got screwed by two teams matching their overpriced offers and ended up with Lin, Foye and Scola.

I think it was hard for the Nets to lose much, when they didn't have much to lose in the first place.

They actually avoided getting stuck with any super huge long term deals, which is probably the most likely way they could've screwed themselves this summer.

[Moranis]

I'm not convinced the Bulls will be better.  The fit is just horrible for those guys, and they might have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league unless Rondo and Wade really buy in.


The Lakers and Knicks might have blown cap space, but nobody was gonna sign with those teams anytime soon anyway.

I don't blame the Blazers for using their cap space, either, but I don't at all understand the way they used it.  I just don't see the point of giving that much to Turner.

The Blazers would've been better off signing Deng and Mozgov!


I like that the Magic made aggressive moves to improve their team.  I don't like that they chose Payton and Fournier over Oladipo, or that they decided to load up on defensive bigs when their biggest problem is a lack of shooting and offensive creation.  Aaron Gordon is not a wing.


I think the Spurs will be worse than last year, but probably better than they would've been if they'd kept Duncan, Diaw, and Marjonovic for another year.

I don't mind the Knicks moves so much, but the Lakers moves make no sense at all.  Deng and Mozgov aren't the long term answer, but they signed them both to big long term deals.  They should have just done what they did the prior year and sign guys to 1 year contracts (maybe 2 years for a guy like Mozgov).  And while I agree the Lakers aren't likely to sign any max contract players until the three young guys pan out, they certainly could have tried to get some younger mid-tier free agents again next summer especially with their incentive to again finish in the bottom three of the league.

I don't love those moves for them, especially Mosgov (can he even be a low end starting center?). However, I don't think they could intentionally have gunned for the worst record in the league again without really hurting the development of randle and russell. Last year they decided to turn into a carnival show with Scott making tanking moves, Kobe having free reign to jack and puzzling rotation moves. Keep in mind that they could finish with the worst record and still lose the pick. Entering the third year of Randle's contract they have to give him a chance to see if he can be a building block. Realistically with him in his 3rd year, Clarkson in his 3rd year, Russell in his 2nd year (plus ingram) they should all be good enough to not be the absolute worst team in the league.

But that is what makes the moves they made so puzzling.  Deng is going to eat into Randle and/or Ingram's playing time and development.  I don't mind Mozgov or even the money, I just think they gave him way too many years.  It was so early in the process as well, it seems like they tried to outsmart the league and it ended up backfiring.  The Lakers should give Zubac, Randle, Ingram, Russell, and Clarkson as many minutes as they can without regard to anyone else.  Even with Deng and Mozgov there is a strong chance the Lakers still finish in the bottom three, but they really ruined their long term flexibility because when Deng and Mozgov come off the books they have to start paying the young guys.  The Lakers have effectively removed themselves from legit free agency for a long time.  With a growing young team, that just doesn't make any sense.

I didn't mind it from the Knicks since they have Anthony whose window is closing.  I see no issue with them trying to go all in.  Sure they overpaid for Noah and who knows what they will get from Rose, but at least their moves make sense and make the Knicks interesting and they should be a playoff team if they get any sort of health from Noah and Rose (heck they might make it even if they don't if Anthony continues to perform, Porzingis continues to improve, and Lee and Jennings haven't fallen off a cliff).   

[Surferdad]

I'm not convinced the Bulls will be better.  The fit is just horrible for those guys, and they might have one of the worst defensive backcourts in the league unless Rondo and Wade really buy in.


The Lakers and Knicks might have blown cap space, but nobody was gonna sign with those teams anytime soon anyway.

I don't blame the Blazers for using their cap space, either, but I don't at all understand the way they used it.  I just don't see the point of giving that much to Turner.

The Blazers would've been better off signing Deng and Mozgov!


I like that the Magic made aggressive moves to improve their team.  I don't like that they chose Payton and Fournier over Oladipo, or that they decided to load up on defensive bigs when their biggest problem is a lack of shooting and offensive creation.  Aaron Gordon is not a wing.

I think the Spurs will be worse than last year, but probably better than they would've been if they'd kept Duncan, Diaw, and Marjonovic for another year.

I continue to be baffled by the Magic.  I like Oladipo better than Fournier and Payton now needs take that next step.  Ibaka?  He seems like the kind of guy at this stage in his career who should be on a legit contender as a solid vet off the bench.  If Gordon can't develop a decent shooting touch he will continue to be an inconsistent contributor.  I doubt they make the playoffs.

[PhoSita]

Yeah, I like Oladipo a lot.  I think he's a far superior player to Payton or Fournier. 

If the Magic had a quality primary ball-handler and scorer, adding Ibaka and Biyombo and then trading Vucevic for depth on the wing could've made sense.

But they don't have a focal point for their offense.  Losing Oladipo just makes that worse.  And they still have Vucevic up front.

What a mess!