Author Topic: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)  (Read 3959 times)

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Offline Robb

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I don't know the percentage of users who also read r/bostonceltics but anything written by the great Sam Sheehan (u/shnts07) is incredibly worth your time.

https://m.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4v313t/the_time_for_fireworks_will_be_2017_unless_its_not/

Copying his TL;DR which really undersells the quality and quantity of he material that he writes, so you should read the whole thing:

Quote
I don’t think the Celtics are going to feel pressured to make a trade this season unless it’s a really good deal. That said, while I was writing this, there is some cap minutiae that can be interpreted to mean that the Celtics think they will have roster spots for Yabu and/or Zizic, which may mean a trade
We're the ones we've been waiting for.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2016, 11:31:43 PM »

Offline Denis998

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It took me a few years to come up with a formula to accurately predict the date of the fireworks, but I finally did it.

(x) + 1 = y

Where X is the current calendar year, and where Y is the predicted year of fireworks. It looks to be a linear relationship. My equation validates the persons hypothesis that the said fireworks are set to go off next year.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2016, 11:42:25 PM »

Offline Denis998

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I don't know the percentage of users who also read r/bostonceltics but anything written by the great Sam Sheehan (u/shnts07) is incredibly worth your time.

https://m.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4v313t/the_time_for_fireworks_will_be_2017_unless_its_not/

Copying his TL;DR which really undersells the quality and quantity of he material that he writes, so you should read the whole thing:

Quote
I don’t think the Celtics are going to feel pressured to make a trade this season unless it’s a really good deal. That said, while I was writing this, there is some cap minutiae that can be interpreted to mean that the Celtics think they will have roster spots for Yabu and/or Zizic, which may mean a trade
I have hope for the next off season, but what I see from this article is a similar situation to that we were just in. DA has positioned this team to be big players in FA and Trade for the next few years. It seems as if every contract he gives out benefits the team in one way or another.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 11:51:45 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2016, 12:12:48 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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The terminology being used is a bit misleading. Zizic and Yabusele ARE stashed. The only thing Ainge hasn't done is remove their cap hold, which does allow them to bring them during the season (as long as all the parties agree) after their contract is up with their non-NBA teams.

But for all intent and purposes they're stashed. We retain their rights whether they come over this season or not for 1 year after their non-NBA contract is up, and their contract situation with the Celtics remains the same aside from the cap hold they occupy.

Secondly, he's using the wrong cap hold numbers for 1st round rookies in his calculations.

Anyways, not interested in reading through all that at the moment as I'm tired. But thought I'd make those clarifications.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2016, 07:43:32 AM »

Offline OhioGreen

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2016, 07:55:33 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!

I'm gonna pull this out from about a month ago (pre-Horford signing, actually), because I think it's relevant again:

In the three years since trading away KG and Pierce, Ainge has dealt Rondo for Jae Crowder (a legit starter), a first rounder, and two seconds (via Brendan Wright - one was used to help get the Clippers' first rounder).  He also used a trade exception to get Thornton and a first from the Cavs, then turned around and sent that to the Suns for Isaiah Thomas (an all star).  He resigned AB (a two-time all defensive teamer) and Crowder (a very good SF) to bargain deals.  He's drafted some decent players, but it has yet to be seen how most of the picks play out.

Most importantly, though, he hasn't ***ed it all up.  He had his chances (and people calling for it to happen).  He could have sold the farm for Love.  He could have maxed out Rondo.  He could have sent the best pick we've had in decades for 1 year of Nerlens Noel.  None of them would have been good long term moves.

People say to wait until the next major league event because the real advice, "Be patient, and wait for the right opportunity" is going to be lost on a lot of people.  Top players don't become available very often, and blowing your load on a mediocre one (like Love or Butler) isn't a good way to build a contender.  If you want to win championships, you have to make the right moves, not make a trade just for the sake of making a trade or sacrificing flexibility just to make fans a little happier short term. 

No one can make you (or anyone else) be patient and wait for the right opportunity to come along. I'm glad Ainge isn't being pressured by some impatient fans to make a bad long term move just for some short term happiness.
I'm bitter.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2016, 08:57:47 AM »

Offline moiso

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I probably gave BitterJim a tp the first time, but have another.  We have gone from one of the worst teams in the league to possibly the 2nd best team in the east in just a few short years.  It's crazy that people consider this too slow of a rebuild, or worse yet, some consider it a total failure on Ainge's part.  It's absolutely insane.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2016, 09:25:41 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!

I'm gonna pull this out from about a month ago (pre-Horford signing, actually), because I think it's relevant again:

In the three years since trading away KG and Pierce, Ainge has dealt Rondo for Jae Crowder (a legit starter), a first rounder, and two seconds (via Brendan Wright - one was used to help get the Clippers' first rounder).  He also used a trade exception to get Thornton and a first from the Cavs, then turned around and sent that to the Suns for Isaiah Thomas (an all star).  He resigned AB (a two-time all defensive teamer) and Crowder (a very good SF) to bargain deals.  He's drafted some decent players, but it has yet to be seen how most of the picks play out.

Most importantly, though, he hasn't ***ed it all up.  He had his chances (and people calling for it to happen).  He could have sold the farm for Love.  He could have maxed out Rondo.  He could have sent the best pick we've had in decades for 1 year of Nerlens Noel.  None of them would have been good long term moves.

People say to wait until the next major league event because the real advice, "Be patient, and wait for the right opportunity" is going to be lost on a lot of people.  Top players don't become available very often, and blowing your load on a mediocre one (like Love or Butler) isn't a good way to build a contender.  If you want to win championships, you have to make the right moves, not make a trade just for the sake of making a trade or sacrificing flexibility just to make fans a little happier short term. 

No one can make you (or anyone else) be patient and wait for the right opportunity to come along. I'm glad Ainge isn't being pressured by some impatient fans to make a bad long term move just for some short term happiness.
I too gave BitterJim a TP for digging up his own quote.  It's true, Ainge has done a lot but he will resist the temptation to make a wrong move that will limit his flexibility during a time of rapidly increasing cap and many top-tier free agents becoming available.  One obvious result:  He got Al Horford for "free" (gave up no assets).  Now, he has positioned the team to make a mid-season deal.  People who criticize Ainge for not making a big deal now will be eating crow soon enough.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2016, 11:00:32 AM »

Offline The One

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!

But a bad move can cripple a team for a LONG time...measure twice (at least) and cut once.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 11:06:19 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!
Did you not enjoy watching the team last year? I'm not anxiously awaiting fireworks because I like what we have this year, and I like how we have improved every year under Brad Stevens.

If we sign another max free agent next offseason, and add a top 5 draft pick we will have built a contending team without the "fireworks" you are pining for.

I would tell you to be patient, but I think better advice would be to enjoy watching the team now knowing that they will only improve over time.
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Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2016, 11:18:49 AM »

Offline GratefulCs

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I hope that any "fireworks" that happen are through free agency



I'd love to hold onto these picks and grow this team naturally



The league is kind of headed back there anyway


It's increasingly hard to trade for a star, and gm's aren't acting as loose as in the past



Lets build the future!

Make the Celtics great again! (Sorry, had to)
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 02:03:57 PM »

Offline OhioGreen

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The C's need two SUPERSTARS right now to compete for a championship!  If Danny has to overpay for a Westbrook and/or Griffin, so be it!  With GS and Cavs what they are now, it's the only way you're going to compete for a title for the next several years.  Al Horford is NOT getting us there.  If fact, if you're not getting at least one superstar to go with him, his signing was a total waste.
Teams are not just letting their superstars go, unless they've made serious miscalculations(i.e. the Thunder), or the player is going down the backside of their career.  So it's take a calculated risk and pay up, or be satisfied winning 40 or so games each year and getting bounced in the playoffs first round.  Personally I'd rather take the shot at winning it all, rather than being happy to be just an "above average" team every year.  I think many here are underestimating the east this coming season, and just getting to the playoffs isn't gonna be a cakewalk.
I respect everyone's opinion on how to get to #18, and, yeah, maybe one of these years we'll get lucky in the draft, or DA can dupe another GM out of a superstar, but getting all those things to happen in a certain time frame, while all our good players are still in their prime, seems dubious at best!

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 05:22:31 PM »

Offline moiso

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The C's need two SUPERSTARS right now to compete for a championship!  If Danny has to overpay for a Westbrook and/or Griffin, so be it!  With GS and Cavs what they are now, it's the only way you're going to compete for a title for the next several years.  Al Horford is NOT getting us there.  If fact, if you're not getting at least one superstar to go with him, his signing was a total waste.
Teams are not just letting their superstars go, unless they've made serious miscalculations(i.e. the Thunder), or the player is going down the backside of their career.  So it's take a calculated risk and pay up, or be satisfied winning 40 or so games each year and getting bounced in the playoffs first round.  Personally I'd rather take the shot at winning it all, rather than being happy to be just an "above average" team every year.  I think many here are underestimating the east this coming season, and just getting to the playoffs isn't gonna be a cakewalk.
I respect everyone's opinion on how to get to #18, and, yeah, maybe one of these years we'll get lucky in the draft, or DA can dupe another GM out of a superstar, but getting all those things to happen in a certain time frame, while all our good players are still in their prime, seems dubious at best!
Every team can't win a championship immediately because fans want it.  It doesn't work that way.  You need a foundation of assets first.  Ainge got Horford for free.  Our foundation of assets is still getting bigger and stronger.  We are positioned to go to the eastern conference finals.  You just can't instantaneously be as good as Golden State and Cleveland.  It doesn't work that way.

Re: Sheehan: The Time for Fireworks will be 2017 (Unless it's Not)
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 05:27:59 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Sooooo tired of the same old garbage---wait til next offseason, wait til next trade deadline, wait til next free agency, wait til next draft.....blah, blah, blah, blah! 
DA has become paralyzed with fear about making the wrong trade, the wrong move, etc.  I had a great teacher in high school who used to tell students who had the same fear of answering a question wrong, and would just sit there.  He'd say, "look before you leap,.....but LEAP!"  Danny is so worried that he'll make the wrong move, that he just won't make ANY!  All these minor moves or signings isn't going to doom his reputation, but he just can't seem to "leap" at a chance at the BIG one!
Like Christy Brinkley said in Vacation---"are you going to go for it?"  Come on Danny, go for it!  You're going to get raked over the coals by at least half of the fans whatever you do.  Make your move!  We're getting old here!
you mean besides trading KG and pierce? and signing horford? and swinging for upside with brown?
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