Author Topic: Is rebounding going to be a problem?  (Read 5160 times)

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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #30 on: July 28, 2016, 10:08:51 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #31 on: July 28, 2016, 10:25:42 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Rebounding has been a big problem for the better part of the last decade, imo, unfortunately, and while we did sign Horford (who isn't exactly the best rebounder, himself), none of that will matter if Stevens keeps 'switching everything' on defense ::), imo, because no matter how good your perimeter guys are at rebounding, there are simply too many size mismatches, and for those of you who think that rebounding doesn't matter, well, go look at how the Thunder were beating the Warriors in the western conference finals, and then how the Cavs ultimately beat them - on the boards; and it's not only because Golden State lacked size, in my view, but it's also due, in large part, to their dumb 'switch everything' defense ::).  Like it or not, rebounding matters.  It always has, and it always will.  Well, to me, anyway :-\.
I love the switch everything defense. The Thunder switched everything against Golden State on the other end as well. If the opposing ball handler can hit a 3 coming off the pick and roll it is really the best defense to combat that. What pick and roll defense do you prefer?
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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #32 on: July 28, 2016, 10:57:52 AM »

Online Moranis

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Sullinger is great at rebounding, no debate. Our fear is that his leaving has left a gap in that area. However, Sully was holding us back in so many other ways. James Young can hit shots, but what else can he do? I think it's better to be mediocre in many areas than to be great at one thing but lousy in most of everything else. That is the difference between Hunter and Young and why the former still has a chance to remain a Celtic. If Young stays, I will be extremely shocked.

If Sully was so valuable, why did the rest of the league ignore him and he signed for chump change?  That alone ought to tell you the rest of the league didn't value him or his rebounding.   He was a solid rebounder and yet he was not paid, as highly as some thought.  I think they came to the logical conclusion that his strengths did not outweigh his weaknesses.  Otherwise, he would have got paid more.

The SKY IS NOT FALLING, do not panic.   We may have some difficulties in this area but some guys will step or up or Ainge will make a move that addresses it.
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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #33 on: July 28, 2016, 12:41:53 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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Looks that way. Horford is not a big rebounder. Any 4-5  who shoots the 3 spends a lot of time on the perimeter. It's the inside guys that get all the boards and block the shots. Ainge seems to have an aversion for these types. He passes them up time and time again. In drafts and free agency. What about Johnson? Sure, but he doesn't show up for a lot of games. Or part of games. Not a workhorse.

The Celtics have never won anything without a big rebounder up front. It's a key to the fast break and transition game.

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #34 on: July 28, 2016, 01:16:26 PM »

Offline greece66

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I've always been one of those people who don't particularly care for RPG as a stat (although when someone grabs 12+ RPG, it is impressive).  It's strongly influenced by pace, as well as the quality of rebounders on your team (e.g. if you have Drummond as the center, the other players RPG will be less robust).  For example, Thaddeus Young had typically been a 5-6 RPG player until last season when he played next to Brook Lopez (a terrible rebounding center), and averaged 9 RPG.

I like players who actually box out and help their team be in position to grab a rebound, even if their RPG is less than impressive.  After all, as long as someone in green grabs the ball, I couldn't care less who actually got the board.

I should've titled the post "Rebounding will be a problem", but I do try to steer away from things that sound inherently negative when posting.
^this is a p good point imo.

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #35 on: July 28, 2016, 01:29:42 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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Last year we lost the boards every time Sully left the game. Amir alone proved to be not enough.

Even with the addition of Horford, who himself is not a standout rebounder, we're short a big that can control the boards, when one of Amir or Horford are on the bench.

It's certainly not Zeller. So yes...IMO we'll have a problem at times with put backs from the other team.

If there is one play in basketball that dirives me crazy, it's when the opposing team gets a put back.
 

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #36 on: July 28, 2016, 01:44:48 PM »

Offline snively

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Last year we lost the boards every time Sully left the game. Amir alone proved to be not enough.

Even with the addition of Horford, who himself is not a standout rebounder, we're short a big that can control the boards, when one of Amir or Horford are on the bench.

It's certainly not Zeller. So yes...IMO we'll have a problem at times with put backs from the other team.

If there is one play in basketball that dirives me crazy, it's when the opposing team gets a put back.
 

It's not just the defensive glass. Going from Sully - a good offensive rebounder - to Horford - a very poor offensive rebounder is going to hurt us quite a bit on the offensive glass too.

Offensive rebounding isn't a huge deal in a vacuum - plenty of great teams have been weak on the offensive glass. But for a team that struggles to hit from deep and has nobody who can get into the paint other than IT, you better believe going from above-average to well below-average on the offensive glass is going to hurt us. It's enough to push our offense into the bottom half of the league.

I think we're going to be a lot like the Hawks last year. Great D hamstrung by a mediocre offense. 47-50 wins.
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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #37 on: July 28, 2016, 02:20:42 PM »

Offline Snakehead

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I think Horford will end up averaging 9 rebounds a game this year.  Without Millsap next to him his numbers will go up.  I think his scoring will go up a couple points as well.  I think Millsap is a great player and sharing the front court with a player of his caliber made Horford sacrifice his numbers a bit.  He's a guy who is very willing to do that. 

I think as the focus of our front court he ends up at about 18 and 9 averages this year. I think his "decline" talk is not something I see in his actual play personally.  His numbers dipped a bit but that's a result of the team and system.  His defense is still fantastic by advanced statistics and the eye test.

Rebounding should be fine.  It'll help that we have some capable rebounders at the guard position.


I've always been one of those people who don't particularly care for RPG as a stat (although when someone grabs 12+ RPG, it is impressive).  It's strongly influenced by pace, as well as the quality of rebounders on your team (e.g. if you have Drummond as the center, the other players RPG will be less robust).  For example, Thaddeus Young had typically been a 5-6 RPG player until last season when he played next to Brook Lopez (a terrible rebounding center), and averaged 9 RPG.

I like players who actually box out and help their team be in position to grab a rebound, even if their RPG is less than impressive.  After all, as long as someone in green grabs the ball, I couldn't care less who actually got the board.

I should've titled the post "Rebounding will be a problem", but I do try to steer away from things that sound inherently negative when posting.
^this is a p good point imo.

Yup.  I mean Rondo averaged 7.5 rebounds per game his last year in Boston, .2 more than Horford last year.  If you think Rondo will beat Horford to a given rebound that's cool but I don't buy it.  It's a fickle stat.  There are guys that are great at boxing out that are more than willing to box out and let others grab rebounds.
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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #38 on: July 28, 2016, 02:31:39 PM »

Offline snively

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I think Horford will end up averaging 9 rebounds a game this year.  Without Millsap next to him his numbers will go up.  I think his scoring will go up a couple points as well.  I think Millsap is a great player and sharing the front court with a player of his caliber made Horford sacrifice his numbers a bit.  He's a guy who is very willing to do that. 

I think as the focus of our front court he ends up at about 18 and 9 averages this year. I think his "decline" talk is not something I see in his actual play personally.  His numbers dipped a bit but that's a result of the team and system.  His defense is still fantastic by advanced statistics and the eye test.

Rebounding should be fine.  It'll help that we have some capable rebounders at the guard position.

Millsap and Amir are practically identical on the glass. And it's not like Al didn't play with lightweight bigs last year (Mike Scott is a KO clone). Atlanta was a bad rebounding team and Al was one of the main reasons.

He is clearly declining as a rebounder. He outright disappeared on the glass against Cleveland's glass-eaters.
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Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #39 on: July 28, 2016, 03:42:34 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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I think Horford will end up averaging 9 rebounds a game this year.  Without Millsap next to him his numbers will go up.  I think his scoring will go up a couple points as well.  I think Millsap is a great player and sharing the front court with a player of his caliber made Horford sacrifice his numbers a bit.  He's a guy who is very willing to do that. 

I think as the focus of our front court he ends up at about 18 and 9 averages this year. I think his "decline" talk is not something I see in his actual play personally.  His numbers dipped a bit but that's a result of the team and system.  His defense is still fantastic by advanced statistics and the eye test.

Rebounding should be fine.  It'll help that we have some capable rebounders at the guard position.

Millsap and Amir are practically identical on the glass. And it's not like Al didn't play with lightweight bigs last year (Mike Scott is a KO clone). Atlanta was a bad rebounding team and Al was one of the main reasons.

He is clearly declining as a rebounder. He outright disappeared on the glass against Cleveland's glass-eaters.

Horford is not declining as a rebounder, it is directly do to how he is being used on the offensive end and having to defend on the perimeter more on the defensive end.  His declining rebounding numbers mirror all other similarly used bigs across the league.  Olynyk, Ibaka, Love, Horford all have seen a decrease in their numbers over the past 3 years.  It is a change in how the game is being played.  They are being used to create space which creates offense.  It is a far better way to use them than parking them in the paint and clogging driving lanes.  The minor loss in offensive rebounding is far outweighed by the significant gains created offensively.


Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #40 on: July 28, 2016, 07:45:42 PM »

Offline timpiker

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Hell yes I'm worried.  The biggest weakness by far.

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #41 on: July 28, 2016, 07:59:13 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Those 2 switching defenses of Boston and G.S. finished tied for 4th best in the league this year.  You seem to think that is a choice they are making and a lot of the time you actually have no choice but to switch.  If you do not switch onto Curry he is going to obtain space and pop an open 3 every time.  Therefor you must have big men that are capable of defending on the perimeter or you are going to get torched.

True.  However, they are making the choice to 'switch everything' because that is Stevens' philosophy, and it has been stated many times that he prefers players who can do exactly that, which is why Swedish meatballs plays so much, I guess :-\.

Quote
G.S did have some trouble on the boards against O.K.C. no doubt.  Those same bigs that were giving them trouble on the boards were also being heavily exploited on the perimeter on the other end.  Adams worked his butt off trying to keep up only to watch a million 3 balls hit in his face.

Cleveland only had a small inconsequential rebounding advantage over the final 3 games of the finals.  The real problem was Cleveland shot the lights out and G.S. didn't.  Over those 3 games G.S. missed 31 more shots than Cleveland did.  As the old saying goes the NBA is a make or miss league and that eventually cost the Warriors the title. 

Rebounding in the foreseeable future is going to be harder to come by from your big men simply because they are being forced to defend away from the hoop.  Either they follow the screen setter out to the 3 point line or stand there and watch them free up a shooter and jack 40+% 3 balls in your face.  With that said it is far more important to have quicker more mobile bigs that are capable of defending out to the perimeter than it is to have monster rebounders in most instances.  If I had a choice I would still keep a monster or 2 around so you can play both ways and change play styles some but I fear teams are going to immediately target any slow less mobile big the second you stick them on the floor.

I'm sure that the Warriors would have liked to have been able to grab as many offensive rebounds off of those 31 misses, as you said, but that's not their philosophy, I suppose, hence why they play small for the majority of the time, but beyond that the Cavs outrebounded them in 4 of the 7 games, including games 6 and 7, and if you really break it down, it wasn't so much the total rebounding differential between the two teams that made the difference - it was the fact that Cleveland had two guys averaging over 10 rpg in Lebron and Thompson, at 11.3 rpg and 10.1 rpg, respectively, while Golden State only had one double figure rebounder in Draymond Green at 10.3 rpg, with their second best rebounder being Andre Iguodala at 6.3 rpg.  That's very telling, imo, and you just can't win that way, in my view :-\. They even lost the rebounding battle in Game 7 by 9 :o. Wow.

In terms of your description of having big guys who can defend on the perimeter, rebound, and block shots, etc., that sounds like such guys from this past draft as Jakob Poeltl, Thon Maker, Pascal Siakam, and Cheick Diallo, as well as undrafted guys like Jarrod Uthoff, Daniel Ochefu, and Tonye Jekiri, imo.

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #42 on: July 28, 2016, 08:03:21 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Rebounding has been a big problem for the better part of the last decade, imo, unfortunately, and while we did sign Horford (who isn't exactly the best rebounder, himself), none of that will matter if Stevens keeps 'switching everything' on defense ::), imo, because no matter how good your perimeter guys are at rebounding, there are simply too many size mismatches, and for those of you who think that rebounding doesn't matter, well, go look at how the Thunder were beating the Warriors in the western conference finals, and then how the Cavs ultimately beat them - on the boards; and it's not only because Golden State lacked size, in my view, but it's also due, in large part, to their dumb 'switch everything' defense ::).  Like it or not, rebounding matters.  It always has, and it always will.  Well, to me, anyway :-\.
I love the switch everything defense. The Thunder switched everything against Golden State on the other end as well. If the opposing ball handler can hit a 3 coming off the pick and roll it is really the best defense to combat that. What pick and roll defense do you prefer?

I would say that that depends on who you're guarding, but I'd never give anyone the same look, twice.  I just think that you should use the element of surprise and keep them guessing :-\.

Re: Is rebounding going to be a problem?
« Reply #43 on: July 28, 2016, 08:58:06 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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by the time his restriction was removed most of the teams had already used their cap space.

Teams were throwing away cash on guys, so I do not buy this excuse.   Ainge would not have to have matched if some team ponied up.  If  some team wanted him, they would have got him.  Take a look at remaining cap space of teams.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Plenty of teams still have cap space even now. So I definitely think your off there.   Are you one of the yahoo's who thought he would get $12-18 million a year?

He was renounced on July 10, 2016 , he signed on July 14, 2016.    He got exactly what the market gave him.   He was not instantly signed once released, it took four days and plenty of teams had cap space for a bigger deal.  They just did not like him as a player, thought he was a poor fit or not worth the risk given his conditioning and weight issues.