Author Topic: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?  (Read 4737 times)

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When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« on: July 26, 2016, 11:09:44 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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He is what, 34 now? How many more seasons

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 11:11:32 AM »

Offline manl_lui

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hes 31, in my honest opinion, he is a freak of nature and once in a lifetime player. Definitely the best player in today's generation, hands down

With that said, I think he starts declining around 35-36.

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2016, 11:13:28 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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He is what, 34 now? How many more seasons

31.  Takes about 2 seconds on the Google machine to find that out.

It's coming and sooner rather than later.  You don't play that many NBA minutes and not start to see a letdown in your early 30s. 

You can even argue that we've already seen peak Lebron & he has already started his decline  Albeit, so far, that decline still has made him top 1-2 players in the league. So, it's clearly been rather minimal.  I still think you'll see a couple of more seasons of that before he starts a more steady decline.    I think only a major injury would be something that could accelerate that decline.


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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2016, 11:15:35 AM »

Offline RJ87

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He's 31 and still in his prime. As long as he continues to stay clear of major injuries and the Cavs handle his minutes well, he'll play at an MVP level until about 34 or 35. We'll probably start to see a slight drop off around that age, but I think he can play into his late 30's.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2016, 11:41:22 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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When he is off the juice....

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2016, 11:46:25 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I wonder if the cavs will start shortening his min...until the cavs are down 10 in the 4th or tight game, then press the emergency button

Rest him until the playoffs

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2016, 11:52:52 AM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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When he is off the juice....

Most people will read this as a snarky joke from a Lebron hater. But it's the correct answer.

Lebron will basically be Serena Williams, a player who keeps dominating physically in a sport where others tend to break down years earlier. When he's in his late 30s he'll still be dominant, and we'll be talking about how he was not only an athletic freak, but that he maintained that athletic freakishness for such a freakishly long time.

Almost every year there will be a mid-season trip to Miami or some other place that will be explained with "he wanted to work out with Dwyane Wade" or "the warm weather is good for his back" or something like that.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2016, 11:53:59 AM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Since so much of his game is based off of raw athleticism, I would imagine 33-34 he starts to show decline, then at 35-36 he primarily becomes a facilitator (even moreso.) He already doesnt give a ton on defense, so I would imagine that trend continues.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2016, 11:55:39 AM »

Offline RJ87

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I wonder if the cavs will start shortening his min...until the cavs are down 10 in the 4th or tight game, then press the emergency button

Rest him until the playoffs

He played 35.6 mins per game last year - easily the lowest mark in his career. More than likely, that trend will continue slightly and he'll probably start missing practices for rest. But don't expect him to drop to below 30 mins per game in the near future.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2016, 11:58:14 AM »

Offline RJ87

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When he is off the juice....

Most people will read this as a snarky joke from a Lebron hater. But it's the correct answer.

Lebron will basically be Serena Williams, a player who keeps dominating physically in a sport where others tend to break down years earlier. When he's in his late 30s he'll still be dominant, and we'll be talking about how he was not only an athletic freak, but that he maintained that athletic freakishness for such a freakishly long time.

Almost every year there will be a mid-season trip to Miami or some other place that will be explained with "he wanted to work out with Dwyane Wade" or "the warm weather is good for his back" or something like that.

Hmm... Gee, wonder why the Serena's the comparison? Maria Sharapova is the one who recently actually tested positive for a banned substance.
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SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
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C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2016, 12:09:57 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Since so much of his game is based off of raw athleticism, I would imagine 33-34 he starts to show decline, then at 35-36 he primarily becomes a facilitator (even moreso.) He already doesnt give a ton on defense, so I would imagine that trend continues.

That's just not true, in the way it was with guys like Kobe or Vince.

Lebron has two things going for him that will allow him to play longer than those guys. First, he can transition to "point PF" and run an offense through the low or high post, rather than from iso situations. He's also a good rebounder and will be even better playing closer to the basket.

Second, his feel for the game is as good as anyone's not named Bird or Magic. Some people don't like to admit that, but even now his impact on the game is felt far beyond "raw athleticism" because he's so smart and versatile.

Barring a major injury I think we'll see a few more years at this level, then 4-5 more where he's giving 19/7/5 or so in 32mpg. I think he'll be an MVP candidate until he's 34 or so, and All-NBA until he's 36-37, and then decline slowly until 38-39. He does have a lot of miles but unlike other HS-to-pro players, his game is more adaptable as he ages.

We will see I guess.

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2016, 12:24:30 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Hmm... Gee, wonder why the Serena's the comparison? Maria Sharapova is the one who recently actually tested positive for a banned substance.

Because Serena Williams has 22 grand slam titles. Sharapova has 5. Williams is dominating at age 34 in a sport where age 25 used to be considered over-the-hill. True, Sharapova is a proven cheater and she's 29. But she's younger and not even as close to as dominant as Williams. That's why.

If you prefer a different analogy... Lebron James will be like Dara Torres when he's through. Dara Torres first swam in the Olympics in 1984 and nearly made the team for the final time in 2012. That is not a typo. At age 40 she set a new US record in the 50m freestyle.

So let's use that instead. Lebron will be like Dara Torres, dominating for a ridiculously long period of time and probably never testing positive for anything.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2016, 12:33:30 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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I guess my athleticism comment was vague.

I mean his major offensive strength is his ability to drive hard to the rim using his insane speed and strength for his size. The fact that defenses need to account for that open up his midrange game, and helps to highlight his immense vision and passing ability even more.

I agree he can continue to create out of the post, but if his speed and strength decline like I said I thought would happen, its not like he can bully people in the post. His hookshot and turn around j arent anything special, so smart teams wont necessarily double him in the post. That might limit his ability to make that super open pass out of the post (not that he cant hit the pass, just that they wont be wide open due to the double.

Also when I say decline, I dont believe it will be rapid. If once he hits 34, he drops to 20/6/5 for a few years, then he drops to like 16/5/6 as he continues to look for more passing opportunities. It will be an amazing career when all is said and done. I think his fg% will slighlty drop down to like the 44-47% range as he loses his first step, but given kyrie, I think lebron will be okay to setup kyrie all the time.
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Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2016, 12:46:36 PM »

Offline td450

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Its already happened. He's one full level below his peak 2 years ago. However, it is fair to say he is still historically great at the level he is at. I think he has 2-3 years as a first team all-NBA player

Re: When do you expect Lebron performance to decline?
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2016, 12:54:36 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Dirk, Kobe, Duncan...all impactful players into their late 30's and all routinely made it to the playoffs every year which adds lots of minutes.  I expect LeBron to be the same, but as to when he will start to decline, I think he has at least 3 more solid-to-elite years.  If he's smart he will continue to work on his outside shooting to make up for the eventual loss of explosiveness.