KO extension deadline: 31st October 2016

[max215]

We can't afford to add money to the books. He'll be restricted, so we won't lose him in FA if we want to keep him anyways.

[otherdave]

Saltlover quote:

But the bigger deal is cap space.  According to Eric Pincus, the max for a 7-9 year player currently projects to $28.3 million.  Without any trades, if you assume that Zeller is gone (a safe assumption), but do account for 1st round draft holds, the Celtics have about $30-33 million in cap space (depending on how many of Young/Hunter/Mickey are kept, and where the Nets pick winds up), before accounting for Olynyk at all.  Without a trade, there's simply not enough flexibility to extend Olynyk at this point, and depending how the numbers shake out next year, there might not be enough to keep him at all.
[/quote]  end quote



Saltlover is right.  If C's sign a big FA next summer, there will probably be no room for KO.  Next summer he will have a qualifying offer of 4.3 mil, but more importantly have a cap hold of 7.7 mil.  Posters say oh we can sign him at the end of the summer after signing FA's, but that cap hold is sitting there all summer.  Next year a 10 year max contract will be about 33.6 mil. Saltlover is getting to 30 to 33 million in cap space, before taking KO's cap hold of 7.7 million into account. Let's split the difference and use 31.5 mil, then subtract 7.7 for KO, leaving 23.8 in cap space.  23.8 mil is not going to sign Blake, Russ, Kevin Durant, etc. Rescinding their rights to KO does get them there.  Rescinding or trading KO is the path of least resistance in terms of clearing additional cap space.  If he takes the first half of the year to get on the court/find his form, he could be gone in the summer.

[tarheelsxxiii]

^ why pick on saltlover if he didnt even say anything?

[Big333223]

Kudos to everyone doing the crazy math.

This is going to be a big year for Olynyk. Last season, he was the 14th best 3P shooter in the league at .405. If he simply repeats his '16 season in '17, he'll be a hot commodity, even restricted.

[Kaz]

His skill set is in extremely high demand.  Ryan Anderson just signed for 4 yrs. 80 mill.,  Meyers Leonard signed for 4 yrs. 41 mill. (coming off a similar injury).   K.O. is better than both of them and it really isn't that close.  He is a better ball handler and has a way more diverse offensive game than either of them.  On the defensive end he is also in a different category whether people want to believe it or not.  Not to mention he is younger than both.

With that said it doesn't make any sense to extend him this year and give up cap space for next off season in the process.  He will without a doubt be kept and resigned after they fill out the roster next year.  His salary can take the C's above the cap then.  If something crazy were to happen like bringing in Westbrook and Noel, maybe they would offer an extension then in an effort to get him on a cheaper long term contract this year but those type scenarios are remote.

Holy Homerism.  KO better than Anderson?  He's a bit healthier and has better passing, but Anderson is a more consistent player.  At best it's a push.
Meyers Leonard's deal should be a good starting point for how much Kelly is worth.  KO is a better version of ML, so he's gonna demand at least something like 13-15 mil-a-year.  Like Anderson, he's a nice weapon to have, but I'd rather not be chained to his future contract if it handicaps the ability to go after a core player.

[trickybilly]

It's all well and good to talk about cap holds, but he might get a 4/20 offer next year if he takes another step this year. Can we use bird rights to match and go over cap after signing a FA?

[BudweiserCeltic]

It's all well and good to talk about cap holds, but he might get a 4/20 offer next year if he takes another step this year. Can we use bird rights to match and go over cap after signing a FA?

Yes. But that's why you negotiate with him early and get an agreement if interested or not. Kinda like we did with Crowder, got an agreement on Moratorium then waited until we used our cap space to sign him.

By the time KO is looking to sign an offer sheet, Ainge would've already have a very good idea of what to do or not with him.

[otherdave]

yes we can sign him at end of next summer and go over the cap doing it, BUT his cap hold during the summer will limit what we can offer a free agent to the 22 to 25 mil range, which will not be enough to get the best free agents.

[Kuberski33]

I have not been much of a KO fan - however - when healthy last season he played pretty well and as another posted pointed out, his skill set is in high demand.  Not sure he's worth the numbers mentioned in this thread though but he will get paid, I'm sure.

[The Oracle]

His skill set is in extremely high demand.  Ryan Anderson just signed for 4 yrs. 80 mill.,  Meyers Leonard signed for 4 yrs. 41 mill. (coming off a similar injury).   K.O. is better than both of them and it really isn't that close.  He is a better ball handler and has a way more diverse offensive game than either of them.  On the defensive end he is also in a different category whether people want to believe it or not.  Not to mention he is younger than both.

With that said it doesn't make any sense to extend him this year and give up cap space for next off season in the process.  He will without a doubt be kept and resigned after they fill out the roster next year.  His salary can take the C's above the cap then.  If something crazy were to happen like bringing in Westbrook and Noel, maybe they would offer an extension then in an effort to get him on a cheaper long term contract this year but those type scenarios are remote.

Holy Homerism.  KO better than Anderson?  He's a bit healthier and has better passing, but Anderson is a more consistent player.  At best it's a push.
Meyers Leonard's deal should be a good starting point for how much Kelly is worth.  KO is a better version of ML, so he's gonna demand at least something like 13-15 mil-a-year.  Like Anderson, he's a nice weapon to have, but I'd rather not be chained to his future contract if it handicaps the ability to go after a core player.

Olynyk's 1st 3 years versus Anderson's last 3 years.
                     Olynyk         Anderson
FG%               46.5%           41.9%
3%                 37.3%           36.3%
FT%               74.6%            87.8%
Tot. Minutes    4218              4478
Tot. Rebounds   949               833
Tot. Assists       323               145
Tot. Steals        151                81
Tot. Blocks         99                 52
Tot. Fouls          603               269

Olynyk has played 260 fewer minutes over the last 3 years and yet has 116 more rebounds, 178 more assists, 70 more steals and 47 more blocks.  I put the fouls up just to show how little effort he puts into playing defense.  If you are a big in the NBA and aren't putting fouls on people you are coughing up lay ups and dunks uncontested and not working hard enough on defense.  His foul rate (2.0 per 36) was almost the lowest of any big in the league last year.

Anderson's teams have been worse defensively with him on the floor and maybe slightly better overall.  With Olynyk on the floor the Celtics have been at their best defensively and overall.  Their roles have been very similar having started some games but mostly come off the bench, the outcomes of their floor time however has been vastly different.

I could post a 100 different metrics and statistics that would tell the same story, there is no comparison between their on court value unless you think him being a really good free throw shooter is what truly matters. 

[incoherent]

Yeah I cant believe how dramatically our fans are underating KO right now.

KO is one of if not the best 3pt shooting 4/5 in the entire league

[Snakehead]

Yeah I cant believe how dramatically our fans are underating KO right now.

KO is one of if not the best 3pt shooting 4/5 in the entire league

I think he is  underrated as well.  A guy like that does more than just his stats.  The defense must entirely change how they play and everyone else benefits.  He also was much improved on defense last year.  Also a smart passer and one of the better ball handlers for a guy his size in the league.

Like earlier in this thread someone said he has a low ceiling... sure he isn't athletic but his skills are so far beyond most other 7 foot players that it's crazy to say that.

[Evantime34]

I love Olynyk and think he will start next year. Even when he isn't taking a lot of shots, his shooting spaces the floor and helps everyone else on offense. Last year, he became a very good position defender (before he got injured).

That being said, it doesn't make sense to sign him to an extension that cuts into the cap space that could go towards a max player. I expect the C's to add a max guy next year and then sign KO to a new contract in the offseason.

[slamtheking]

to me, retaining KO is more questionable than retaining Sully.  With Sully, you knew you were getting rebounding, decent passing and finishing around the basket.  with KO, he can look terrific one game and then non-existent the next. 

personally, I wouldn't offer much of an extension pre-season and would prefer to see what he brings this season.  if he finally plays focussed every game, he's still and RFA next offseason and C's can resign him.

KO fits this team much better then Sully... He is a big man who can stretch the floor, shoot the three, & run transition... While his rebounding skills are rather weak thats not really what he is paid to do...

he only fits the team when he's having an 'on' game.  when he's having an 'off' game, he's not providing anything.  Sully may not be the shooter KO is when he's on, but every game Sully was rebounding at a minimum.  when KO's not shooting well or being aggressive on offense, what's he bringing -- not much

[kozlodoev]

Olynyk is a good rotation player, but given his track record with injuries and disappearing in games, I don't think he can be relied on as a full-time starter. First big off the bench, spend accordingly.