I'm literally predicting the Nets to win between 20-25 games. ESPN predicted 20... I don't think they're going to exceed projections.
As far as why the Vegas line is low? Because this is a historically screwed franchise long term, and I think that is driving short term betting down. In addition, this is the one team that has no real incentive to rest guys the way the Knicks did w/ Melo, or the Warriors did to get Harrison Barnes.
Lastly, people tend to ignore that they had a rotation with 4-5 guys who aren't in the NBA any more last year. Their replacements aren't great, but they are by and large solid NBA role players replacing D-Leaguers. They'll be bad, but they'll be running a better offensive system, and can't get worse defensively.
Again...20-25 wins makes them a bottom 3-4 team... We're shouting at each other over what? 5 games? That's easily within the margin of error generated by injury luck alone.
Literally? Rather than figuratively?
20 to 25 games is certainly achievable. They could win as many as 30 if every single thing went in their favor. It's not hard to imagine a 5 or 10 game swing either way. Sometimes teams simply get lucky. For instance, Chicago last year won 42 games with a -1.5 point differential. That's 7 more games than Orlando won (-1.6). Utah was +1.8 and won only 40 games. While there are many factors at play, some of that is simply due to luck - good and bad.
I think the Vegas line is so low because the team has so little proven talent. There's Lopez and that's really it. Lin's on his 6th team in as many years for a reason. The rest of the guys are unproven, coming off injury, has-beens or never-weres. They lost their 2nd best player and a steadying influence. As far as them having no incentive to bench anyone, the same thing was said last year yet Lopez sat the last 10 games. If anything the Nets have great reason to trade Lopez mid-year. His contract is up after 2018 and if the Nets are going to get top value, they need to deal him before he's a 1 year expiring guy. The Nets are going to want picks and young players for Lopez. So I believe that Vegas is anticipating Lopez to be gone by the 50th game of this year, leaving behind easily the worst roster in the NBA and perhaps the worst roster assembled in the NBA in the last 20 years.
I agree the team's pieces fit better this year. As far as their improvement, we'll find out. I see their gains offset by the loss of Young. I see them trading Lopez in early 2017 (either due to their decision or him outright demanding one). It's a bad team and one that is going to give us yet another great draft pick next year.