Author Topic: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks  (Read 7103 times)

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Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« on: July 24, 2016, 12:10:25 AM »

Offline saltlover

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With today's signings of Zeller, Green, Jackson, and Bentil, the Celtics are essentially at the cap line (they probably have about $1.5 million left, which isn't enough to do anything of consequence, especially since they already have a room exception of $2.9 million). 

The signing of Brown can have been delayed for two likely reasons.  The first was to preserve cap room for a trade or signing.  While his cap hold is just under $4 million, he will probably sign for about $4.8 million, meaning the delay created an addition $800k in cap room.

The second is that since 1st round draftees cannot be traded for 30 days after they sign, getting Brown under contract would delay a trade by a month.  Furthermore, Brown would have a salary number of zero in a trade, which could also be important in a potential deal.  If Brown is unsigned, it may be because he is being discussed in somewhat advanced trade negotiations.

Therefore, since his delay no longer creates a cap advantage for th Celtics, I conclude that he's being discussed in a trade that Ainge deems a reasonable enough possibility so as to not yet sign Brown.  I will hedge slightly, and concede that he could be signed by end of day Monday, since technically teams aren't allowed to have verbal deals with draft picks and keep the cap room.  But rookie deals are pretty standard fare, so if it goes beyond Monday, I will drop this hedge completely, and declare that assuredly Brown is being discussed.

EDIT:  This is being discussed in another thread.  I started to write the post hours ago, and then got distracted by a series of dirty diapers.  Sigh.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2016, 12:29:40 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2016, 12:37:29 AM »

Offline saltlover

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

My gut says Cousins.  Griffin has a trade kicker, and so having Brown under contract would make that deal easier.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2016, 12:48:41 AM »

Offline alldaboston

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

Why is that? If anything, I think he started showing that he was at least worthy of that 3rd pick, especially his play towards the end of summer league.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2016, 12:53:32 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

My gut says Cousins.  Griffin has a trade kicker, and so having Brown under contract would make that deal easier.

I don't disagree with the sentiment that Brown is available in a trade, but I do disagree with the deduction being done here. Historically Ainge has maximized to the last cent what he can do with his cap space, and particularly with 18 players or so either signed or agreed to with the team, keeping cap flexibility, no matter how minimal, is of use particularly if small trades are being considered and the team needs to remain under cap to make it work.

So in all, I agree with the sentiment, I just don't think it's correct to simply dismiss the the remaining cap room as inconsequential as it regards whether to sign Brown or not.

Do recall that the opposite is true at times as well, like what occurred with Wiggins, who was signed around this date if I recall correctly but, if not mistaken, his contract was needed to match the trade for Love.

Just don't think it has any significance one way or another, without further details, whether Brown is signed or not, other than Brown being kept unsigned gives Ainge more options for the time being, as minimal as they might be cap wise and trade wise.

I'll say this much, I think all these recent signings may make it more difficult to do the trade + renegotiate + extend scenarios with some of the targets. It was far-fetched with Griffin a bit (though doable I think) and a valid strategy for Westbrook.

So if those two remain a target, it's a big gamble to take on. I do hope that Cousins is the guy we'd really be after if anything.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2016, 12:59:35 AM »

Offline flybono

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IF, Cousins is the Player, you have to match $$. Who else goes?

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2016, 01:02:11 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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IF, Cousins is the Player, you have to match $$. Who else goes?

Amir Johnson alone makes it work. But there's a variety of ways to accomplish it. So who knows? Just know that there are options available.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2016, 01:02:16 AM »

Offline saltlover

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IF, Cousins is the Player, you have to match $$. Who else goes?

Amir matches by himself, and would cede his minutes to Cousins.  So he's obvious. Then it would just be the prospects and picks the Kings want.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2016, 01:02:40 AM »

Offline saltlover

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IF, Cousins is the Player, you have to match $$. Who else goes?

Amir Johnson alone makes it work. But there's a variety of ways to accomplish it. So who knows? Just know that there are options available.

TP for beating me by 5 seconds.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2016, 01:03:15 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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IF, Cousins is the Player, you have to match $$. Who else goes?

Amir Johnson alone makes it work. But there's a variety of ways to accomplish it. So who knows? Just know that there are options available.

TP for beating me by 5 seconds.

Would've been 30 seconds but wanted to recheck my calcs :p

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2016, 01:20:39 AM »

Offline saltlover

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

My gut says Cousins.  Griffin has a trade kicker, and so having Brown under contract would make that deal easier.

I don't disagree with the sentiment that Brown is available in a trade, but I do disagree with the deduction being done here. Historically Ainge has maximized to the last cent what he can do with his cap space, and particularly with 18 players or so either signed or agreed to with the team, keeping cap flexibility, no matter how minimal, is of use particularly if small trades are being considered and the team needs to remain under cap to make it work.

So in all, I agree with the sentiment, I just don't think it's correct to simply dismiss the the remaining cap room as inconsequential as it regards whether to sign Brown or not.

Do recall that the opposite is true at times as well, like what occurred with Wiggins, who was signed around this date if I recall correctly but, if not mistaken, his contract was needed to match the trade for Love.

Just don't think it has any significance one way or another, without further details, whether Brown is signed or not, other than Brown being kept unsigned gives Ainge more options for the time being, as minimal as they might be cap wise and trade wise.

I'll say this much, I think all these recent signings may make it more difficult to do the trade + renegotiate + extend scenarios with some of the targets. It was far-fetched with Griffin a bit (though doable I think) and a valid strategy for Westbrook.

So if those two remain a target, it's a big gamble to take on. I do hope that Cousins is the guy we'd really be after if anything.

With regard to the cap room, it's possible that we're already over, for starters, due to a few cap holds.  Ainge maximizes every cent he can, but there's a point where you move on, and it's typically around this time in July.  There aren't teams looking to trade $1.5-$2 million salaries this year (a la the PJ3 and Dragic deals).  There aren't free agents he would sign for that amount this year, given that's pretty much a minimum salary for a vet.

As for the usefulness of Brown's salary being included in a deal, it pretty moot.  Aside from Groffin, Amir can bring back practically by himself virtually any player we've had rumored interest in. its not hard to match this year thanks to his contract.  Being able to make a trade immediately, rather than having it sit out there for a month, has value to Ainge.

Anyway, I don't think a deal will happen, but I think it's close enough for Ainge to hold off on Brown for a few more days.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2016, 01:28:13 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

Why is that? If anything, I think he started showing that he was at least worthy of that 3rd pick, especially his play towards the end of summer league.

Well, in general, wouldn't a draft pick, especially one in the top 3, be valued higher before he hit the court where he can show his warts, etc.?  Maybe it's like opening some sort of collectible that is valued so high because it hadn't been taken out of the packaging?  I'm not sure, but I think that that's the gist of the argument that has been outlined before on here.  Perhaps it's like wanting to trade the Brooklyn pick at the deadline because of what it could be, as opposed to holding onto it and being at the mercy of the lottery? 

Anyway, Brown had two nice fadeaway jumpers and a few great spin moves, but I don't think that    he showed that he was at least worthy of being taken third.  He did play better in the final, what, two games, or was it three?  Either way, I'm trying to like him, and I absolutely want him to be a success, but I'm not there, yet.  He didn't hit a field goal in the first half of either of his first two games, failed to make a basket, at all, in the third, his jumper was slightly better than advertised, I guess, he had great difficulty in finishing around the basket, and his decision making, especially when he quite often opted to dribble, with his head down :o *facepalm*, into 2-3 guys and either invariably fall over or just flat out lose the ball altogether, was hardly impressive to me, sorry :-\.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2016, 01:42:27 AM »

Offline alldaboston

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

Why is that? If anything, I think he started showing that he was at least worthy of that 3rd pick, especially his play towards the end of summer league.

Well, in general, wouldn't a draft pick, especially one in the top 3, be valued higher before he hit the court where he can show his warts, etc.?  Maybe it's like opening some sort of collectible that is valued so high because it hadn't been taken out of the packaging?  I'm not sure, but I think that that's the gist of the argument that has been outlined before on here.  Perhaps it's like wanting to trade the Brooklyn pick at the deadline because of what it could be, as opposed to holding onto it and being at the mercy of the lottery? 

Anyway, Brown had two nice fadeaway jumpers and a few great spin moves, but I don't think that    he showed that he was at least worthy of being taken third.  He did play better in the final, what, two games, or was it three?  Either way, I'm trying to like him, and I absolutely want him to be a success, but I'm not there, yet.  He didn't hit a field goal in the first half of either of his first two games, failed to make a basket, at all, in the third, his jumper was slightly better than advertised, I guess, he had great difficulty in finishing around the basket, and his decision making, especially when he quite often opted to dribble, with his head down :o *facepalm*, into 2-3 guys and either invariably fall over or just flat out lose the ball altogether, was hardly impressive to me, sorry :-\.

I don't know, I just feel like the aura around him was all negative after the draft, so much that his value also took a hit. I thought he played fairly well, but not great. The game certainly slowed down for him towards the end, so that's good.

Basically, I feel that because many felt we reached for him, it had a negative impact on his value. But once he got playing, it wasn't nearly as bad as people thought, so that helped regain a little value.

I'm probably spewing nonsense at this point lol. It's late and I don't really know what I'm saying haha
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2016, 01:48:28 AM »

Offline saltlover

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TP for the dirty diapers, lol ;D. It would be pretty crappy to trade Brown now, though, wouldn't it?  I just find the timing to be odd, to say the least.  Did he not have more value before the summer league, lol ;D, and for whom would he be traded, anyway, at this point, now that Wade and Rondo have gone to Chicago.  Griffin?  Cousins?

Why is that? If anything, I think he started showing that he was at least worthy of that 3rd pick, especially his play towards the end of summer league.

Well, in general, wouldn't a draft pick, especially one in the top 3, be valued higher before he hit the court where he can show his warts, etc.?  Maybe it's like opening some sort of collectible that is valued so high because it hadn't been taken out of the packaging?  I'm not sure, but I think that that's the gist of the argument that has been outlined before on here.  Perhaps it's like wanting to trade the Brooklyn pick at the deadline because of what it could be, as opposed to holding onto it and being at the mercy of the lottery? 

Anyway, Brown had two nice fadeaway jumpers and a few great spin moves, but I don't think that    he showed that he was at least worthy of being taken third.  He did play better in the final, what, two games, or was it three?  Either way, I'm trying to like him, and I absolutely want him to be a success, but I'm not there, yet.  He didn't hit a field goal in the first half of either of his first two games, failed to make a basket, at all, in the third, his jumper was slightly better than advertised, I guess, he had great difficulty in finishing around the basket, and his decision making, especially when he quite often opted to dribble, with his head down :o *facepalm*, into 2-3 guys and either invariably fall over or just flat out lose the ball altogether, was hardly impressive to me, sorry :-\.

Not remotely.  It all depends on expectations.  If Brown met or exceeded a potential trade partner's expectations, his value would increase, whereas if he did not meet them, it might decrease.  He's 19, of course there are warts.  It all depends if a team saw new warts, new skills, or warts that weren't quite so bad.

Re: Deduction: Jaylen Brown is available in trade talks
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2016, 02:24:33 AM »

Offline Ogaju

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FWIW Jaylen Brown was spotted in LA at Venice Beach Saturday afternoon. Is he from LA?