Author Topic: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016  (Read 3922 times)

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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2016, 10:03:33 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Henry Ellenson, who went 17th.  Then again, I knew nothing about Yab, and am very willing to believe he'll prove me wrong.

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2016, 10:03:53 PM »

Offline Granath

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The trade of the 31st and 35th picks. That's the first truly bad trade Danny's made in a long time. I get we didn't have the roster space for those guys but if the best you can do is a 1-14 protected pick by the aging Clippers that has a fair chance of turning into 2 2nd round picks in 2020 and 2021 - picks that will be almost certainly worse than 31 and 35 - that's not a good deal IMO.

You think the Clippers are gonna miss the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2020?  That's gonna be a pick in the late teens or early 20s, which is a great return for two second rounders

I get what he is saying. It's not like it was a horrible trade and if you make the trade this year (like 31 and 35 for 23, or something), then it pays immediate dividends. Having to wait at least three years for a sort-of blah pick with the chance of it becoming even worse 2nd rounders than you already have is less than exciting.

I will say that it is better to have a future first to use as trade bait, but better to use it sooner rather than later on the off-chance that the Clips strip down their roster and start over in a couple of years.

You pretty much got it. What bothers me most is the lack of assurance. We gave up not just "two 2nd rounders", but the 31st and 35th picks. Both of these are quite valuable in that there is quite often still an opportunity to get a good player at those ranges and the contracts are not guaranteed. I'd argue that 31 is more valuable than 29 or 30 because of the contractual issues versus the chance of finding talent at that spot in the draft.

I wouldn't have minded the deal so much if it were contingent that if the LAC picks converted to 2nd rounders that we'd get the MEM 1st pick in 2021 or something like that. But the fact that we're not guaranteed a 1st for two quite high 2nds bothers me.

I think it's unlikely that the Clips pick will be a late teens pick. Paul is already 31. Griffin is coming off an injury. They're in a win-now scenario. I think if the Clips start to falter badly enough to be in the teens they'll strip the team down and rebuild. If they don't, it means they're a contender and selecting in the mid-20s. Now we might get lucky and hit the kind of year the 2012 Celtics had - the year in which it becomes evident that they need to start over. But I think it's more likely that either the Clips will be very competitive or they'll dump their assets for picks and start over by 2018.

If the pick is in the high 20s, I don't think we got great value for it given that current picks are always worth more than future ones. If the pick converts to two 2nds, we lost big time. So the only scenario in which we win this trade is a pick in the high teens or very low 20s...and that to me seems like a very fine to walk 3 years from now.
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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2016, 10:09:36 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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Not sure we needed another end of the bench player who has POTENTIAL. Thus, I'm baffled about the Yabu selection. Why not go with players who have skill right from the get-go. Many of the selections mentioned below would have been a better choice.... Felder, Brice, Luwawu, Scal, Davis in the second round. I wish we could have taken Davis and traded up to get Ulis. 

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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2016, 10:19:52 PM »

Offline saltlover

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The trade of the 31st and 35th picks. That's the first truly bad trade Danny's made in a long time. I get we didn't have the roster space for those guys but if the best you can do is a 1-14 protected pick by the aging Clippers that has a fair chance of turning into 2 2nd round picks in 2020 and 2021 - picks that will be almost certainly worse than 31 and 35 - that's not a good deal IMO.

You think the Clippers are gonna miss the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2020?  That's gonna be a pick in the late teens or early 20s, which is a great return for two second rounders

I get what he is saying. It's not like it was a horrible trade and if you make the trade this year (like 31 and 35 for 23, or something), then it pays immediate dividends. Having to wait at least three years for a sort-of blah pick with the chance of it becoming even worse 2nd rounders than you already have is less than exciting.

I will say that it is better to have a future first to use as trade bait, but better to use it sooner rather than later on the off-chance that the Clips strip down their roster and start over in a couple of years.

You pretty much got it. What bothers me most is the lack of assurance. We gave up not just "two 2nd rounders", but the 31st and 35th picks. Both of these are quite valuable in that there is quite often still an opportunity to get a good player at those ranges and the contracts are not guaranteed. I'd argue that 31 is more valuable than 29 or 30 because of the contractual issues versus the chance of finding talent at that spot in the draft.

I wouldn't have minded the deal so much if it were contingent that if the LAC picks converted to 2nd rounders that we'd get the MEM 1st pick in 2021 or something like that. But the fact that we're not guaranteed a 1st for two quite high 2nds bothers me.

I think it's unlikely that the Clips pick will be a late teens pick. Paul is already 31. Griffin is coming off an injury. They're in a win-now scenario. I think if the Clips start to falter badly enough to be in the teens they'll strip the team down and rebuild. If they don't, it means they're a contender and selecting in the mid-20s. Now we might get lucky and hit the kind of year the 2012 Celtics had - the year in which it becomes evident that they need to start over. But I think it's more likely that either the Clips will be very competitive or they'll dump their assets for picks and start over by 2018.

If the pick is in the high 20s, I don't think we got great value for it given that current picks are always worth more than future ones. If the pick converts to two 2nds, we lost big time. So the only scenario in which we win this trade is a pick in the high teens or very low 20s...and that to me seems like a very fine to walk 3 years from now.

Let's not get carried away.  The 31st pick was not more valuable than the 29th pick this year.  Davis is getting paid 23rd pick money.  Unlike a 1st round pick, he will hit free agency after three years instead of four, cannot negotiate an extension prior to reaching free agency, and has three years guaranteed instead of two.  And that susprised no one, as Jordan Mickey (last year's pick 33) is getting paid more than RJ Hunter (pick 28).  That's not to say it wasn't valuable, but it did not have more value than a late 1st in the same draft year.

I didn't love that trade, and would have rather gotten something better, but a 1st a few years down the road (and it's highly likely to convey as a 1st and not 2nd) is fine.  There's a chance that we come out ahead (I'd say picking in the 15-20 range will have made it a good deal) and a chance we don't.  You could do worse.

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2016, 10:25:14 PM »

Offline Granath

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I didn't love that trade, and would have rather gotten something better, but a 1st a few years down the road (and it's highly likely to convey as a 1st and not 2nd) is fine.  There's a chance that we come out ahead (I'd say picking in the 15-20 range will have made it a good deal) and a chance we don't.  You could do worse.

Hey, I'm just probably spoiled. I've gotten quite accustomed to Danny outright winning trades by a large margin.  :)
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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2016, 10:43:58 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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Yes let's talk about draft misses already after summer league.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2016, 10:45:48 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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The trade of the 31st and 35th picks. That's the first truly bad trade Danny's made in a long time. I get we didn't have the roster space for those guys but if the best you can do is a 1-14 protected pick by the aging Clippers that has a fair chance of turning into 2 2nd round picks in 2020 and 2021 - picks that will be almost certainly worse than 31 and 35 - that's not a good deal IMO.

You think the Clippers are gonna miss the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2020?  That's gonna be a pick in the late teens or early 20s, which is a great return for two second rounders

I get what he is saying. It's not like it was a horrible trade and if you make the trade this year (like 31 and 35 for 23, or something), then it pays immediate dividends. Having to wait at least three years for a sort-of blah pick with the chance of it becoming even worse 2nd rounders than you already have is less than exciting.

I will say that it is better to have a future first to use as trade bait, but better to use it sooner rather than later on the off-chance that the Clips strip down their roster and start over in a couple of years.

You pretty much got it. What bothers me most is the lack of assurance. We gave up not just "two 2nd rounders", but the 31st and 35th picks. Both of these are quite valuable in that there is quite often still an opportunity to get a good player at those ranges and the contracts are not guaranteed. I'd argue that 31 is more valuable than 29 or 30 because of the contractual issues versus the chance of finding talent at that spot in the draft.

I wouldn't have minded the deal so much if it were contingent that if the LAC picks converted to 2nd rounders that we'd get the MEM 1st pick in 2021 or something like that. But the fact that we're not guaranteed a 1st for two quite high 2nds bothers me.

I think it's unlikely that the Clips pick will be a late teens pick. Paul is already 31. Griffin is coming off an injury. They're in a win-now scenario. I think if the Clips start to falter badly enough to be in the teens they'll strip the team down and rebuild. If they don't, it means they're a contender and selecting in the mid-20s. Now we might get lucky and hit the kind of year the 2012 Celtics had - the year in which it becomes evident that they need to start over. But I think it's more likely that either the Clips will be very competitive or they'll dump their assets for picks and start over by 2018.

If the pick is in the high 20s, I don't think we got great value for it given that current picks are always worth more than future ones. If the pick converts to two 2nds, we lost big time. So the only scenario in which we win this trade is a pick in the high teens or very low 20s...and that to me seems like a very fine to walk 3 years from now.

I'm lazy when it comes to these things but I would love to see the 31/35th picks of the last 20y to see if they are as valuable as many suggest (maybe you already have it). I want to see how many are nba caliber and how long they lasted.
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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2016, 10:52:03 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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I'm lazy when it comes to these things but I would love to see the 31/35th picks of the last 20y to see if they are as valuable as many suggest (maybe you already have it). I want to see how many are nba caliber and how long they lasted.

I'm not sure that what happens in the past somehow impacts the future in regard to drafting, because every class is different, even though I understand the statistical breakdown.  For example, would you not have wanted Malcolm Brogdon at 31?

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2016, 10:55:38 PM »

Offline greece66

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Since we somehow ended up discussing the draft night trade, Saltlover is making some IMO very solid points about the value of picks. I only fully understood the reason for the relatively value of the early second rounders once I read about this in another thread.

Another thing to keep in mind is that we could not have possibly drafted eight players - I remember we had discussed this at length in the forums well in advance of the draft night. A deal had to be made and given the pace of the draft it had to be made fast with whomever was willing at the moment. What we got in return is the expected price for what we gave.

The only thing that still worries me is that IMHO the Clips are far from a lock for the 2019 and 2020 playoffs - Paul is getting old and Griffin is unlikely to still be in LA by then; what is more I do not trust much Doc as a trainer let alone as a GM; and last, several young teams are bound to be much better by then (Minny, LAL maybe even NOP). Still, the chances of blowing it two years in a row are low, but IMO the chances we end up with the 2022 second rounder are somewhere between 10 and 20% (this is sheer speculation ofc, but I'm giving a % to keep this honest).  In short, I would much rather have the same deal with the Spurs  ::) - I just hate risks and I know it... :P

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2016, 10:58:14 PM »

Offline loco_91

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I really wanted Luwawu and Korkmaz. Kinda bummed we didn't use our foreign Draft n Stash on them instead of Yabu.

I'm bummed about missing Korkmaz as well. Don't think Luwawu has a lot of upside, but he would've been a nice pick at 22 as well.

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2016, 11:03:06 PM »

Offline Granath

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I'm lazy when it comes to these things but I would love to see the 31/35th picks of the last 20y to see if they are as valuable as many suggest (maybe you already have it). I want to see how many are nba caliber and how long they lasted.

Of course it's going to be far more "miss" than "hit" but here's a few names off the top of my head:

Draymond Green was the 35th pick (Crowder went 34 I believe)
Whiteside went somewhere in that range.
Pekovic went 31 and DeAndre Jordan went 35 in the same year
Big baby went 35
Varejao went with the 1st pick of the 2nd round
Arenas went somewhere around there (first or 2nd pick in the 2nd round)
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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2016, 11:45:46 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Yes let's talk about draft misses already after summer league.
Was thinking OP meant draft slot and performance so far. I was off Lab went very late. Also Lab didn't dominant to warrant lottery level selectio. People who called him Channing Frye were more on point than me. I thought he could Porzingis at PF for a team. He isn't close to that and would have to really develop to get even close to rookie year.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 11:53:36 PM by Csfan1984 »

Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2016, 11:49:05 PM »

Offline greece66

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Yes let's talk about draft misses already after summer league.
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Re: What's Your biggest Draft miss 2016
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2016, 09:57:22 AM »

Offline YoungOne87

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I wanted Zipser in the second round, but mostly because I'm from germany, could be a nice backup SF in the future.