Author Topic: Expectations for Jaylen Brown  (Read 5586 times)

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Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« on: July 19, 2016, 11:34:42 AM »

Offline PaulAllen

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With the departure of Evan Turner I think he will get a nice hearty role in his rookie year... Can already rely on hid defense, athleticism, hustle, and ability to get to the line... In a way many of the things Smart was able to do his first year (except FT).. I expect a bit more but here are some numbers:

8-10ppg
16-22 min
5 rpg
2 apg
1.5 stpg
.5 bpg
38%fgp
70%ftp

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2016, 11:38:31 AM »

Offline footey

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I think those are realistic goals for him this coming year, except I doubt he will have that many steals based on those minutes.  Good projection, TP!!

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2016, 11:56:31 AM »

Offline manl_lui

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With the departure of Evan Turner I think he will get a nice hearty role in his rookie year... Can already rely on hid defense, athleticism, hustle, and ability to get to the line... In a way many of the things Smart was able to do his first year (except FT).. I expect a bit more but here are some numbers:

8-10ppg
16-22 min
5 rpg
2 apg
1.5 stpg
.5 bpg
38%fgp
70%ftp

I'm gonna be optimistic and up the ppg

12 ppg
15-20 mpg to start the season and between 25-30 mpg to end the season
6 rpg (based on SL)
1 apg (.3 below SL average)

rest I agree with

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2016, 11:57:12 AM »

Online BitterJim

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With the departure of Evan Turner I think he will get a nice hearty role in his rookie year... Can already rely on hid defense, athleticism, hustle, and ability to get to the line... In a way many of the things Smart was able to do his first year (except FT).. I expect a bit more but here are some numbers:

8-10ppg
16-22 min
5 rpg
2 apg
1.5 stpg
.5 bpg
38%fgp
70%ftp

If Brown gets 1.5 stpg in 22 mpg (never mind 16 mpg), then he'd have a rate of ~2.45 per 36, which would be higher than anyone (with 80+ steals in the season) besides Ricky Rubio.  Heck, only 5 guys get over 2.25 steals per 36, and 2 of them were on NBA All Defensive teams this year.  Actually, only 24 players TOTAL averaged 1.5 steals per game.  That's not gonna happen, and I'd be surprised if he gets any higher than 1 steal per game.  That rebound rate is approaching elite PF/C status, too, but could be doable with more minutes.  I think you need to lower your expectations a bit, though

Source: http://bkref.com/tiny/yFlvX
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2016, 12:40:14 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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15-20 minutes a game.

I expect his per-minute production to average out to something like 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 stl, 1 block, 4 FTA for full starter minutes (ie 32-35 mpg).

In other words, I think his averages will be along the lines of 5-6 pts, 2-3 boards, and a couple free throw attempts per game.

Shooting averages, I'll guess 38 overall from the field, 45 on twos, 30 on threes, 68 on free throws.
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2016, 12:43:53 PM »

Offline dannyboy35

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I don't think he's going to get as much time as he should bring a rookie and seeing how rozier was handled but maybe Stevens learned from that.

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2016, 12:55:33 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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15-20 minutes a game.

I expect his per-minute production to average out to something like 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 stl, 1 block, 4 FTA for full starter minutes (ie 32-35 mpg).

In other words, I think his averages will be along the lines of 5-6 pts, 2-3 boards, and a couple free throw attempts per game.

Shooting averages, I'll guess 38 overall from the field, 45 on twos, 30 on threes, 68 on free throws.
ha, ha...i would LOVE brown to have per minute production such as that.  ;)
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2016, 01:02:22 PM »

Online BitterJim

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I don't think he's going to get as much time as he should bring a rookie and seeing how rozier was handled but maybe Stevens learned from that.

Brown and Rozier are totally different prospects.  Brown fits more into the Marcus Smart mold, and Smart got lots of minutes his rookie year despite us being in a fight for the playoffs.  Rozier was a non-NBA ready mid-first-round rookie, so of course he wasn't going to get minutes.  But Brown is both better and a better prospect than Rozier was last year (not to mention that he plays a less loaded position), so how much Rozier played means nothing
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2016, 01:10:31 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2016, 01:51:50 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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I'm not going to predict numbers (who knows?) but generally speaking I think he's going to get minutes. Maybe 15-20 per game, that's my best guess.

In his first year he will be far from a primary scoring option, but I think he can definitely be a useful role player off the bench as a wing defender. Just imagine playing the Cavs: you'll need several big wing bodies to throw out there at Lebron, for instance, and Brown will definitely be part of the equation. In that sense, he can replace some of what Turner gave you, which is a guy who can guard 2s and 3s in the second unit when Jae Crowder is on the bench.

So I think Brown can be extremely useful this year. With Rozier possibly emerging, then some of that 2nd-unit ballhandling that you got from Turner can also be replaced so that puts me somewhat at ease.

Don't be disappointed if Brown doesn't light the world on fire in his first year, and he's just a role player. The NBA is murder for rookies, especially 19-year-old rookies. Be patient with this kid.
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2016, 02:13:58 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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I love Jaylen's potential, but I think his defense will be the key factor in how much he plays.  Everyone seems to be raving about his defense in summer league - lots of steals.  But, I saw him bite on almost every up-fake thrown his way.  If he can't improve on that - which should be easy, he won't see much time (e.g. < 5 minutes per game).  If he prides himself on defense, like Marcus Smart, I could see him getting 20 mpg.  I'm going to say it's somewhere in between ... 10-12 minutes per game, and he'll show flashes of athletic prowess that leave us wanting more, but dumb mistakes that make us understand why he's not playing more.

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2016, 04:18:00 PM »

Offline greece66

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Nice thread.

Prolly belongs to "Celtics talk" tho

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2016, 04:40:41 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I see him coming in with Amir , Smart and Rozier .....as the crushing high energy second unit.

20 minutes wouldn't surprise me ......like smart , .he doesn't seem scard to mix it up in the least ......

Kinda wonder who will play the four on the second unit.

Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2016, 04:50:49 PM »

Online BitterJim

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I see him coming in with Amir , Smart and Rozier .....as the crushing high energy second unit.

20 minutes wouldn't surprise me ......like smart , .he doesn't seem scard to mix it up in the least ......

Kinda wonder who will play the four on the second unit.

Amir will be starting next to Horford
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Re: Expectations for Jaylen Brown
« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2016, 04:54:09 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I see him coming in with Amir , Smart and Rozier .....as the crushing high energy second unit.

20 minutes wouldn't surprise me ......like smart , .he doesn't seem scard to mix it up in the least ......

Kinda wonder who will play the four on the second unit.

Hard to see it not being JJ. He and Amir were pretty effective in the playoffs together. There is always a chance that we make a big trade, but said trade would likely include a member of the 'top 10' - so I will stick with JJ.