Do nothing

[walker834]

That 17 draft pick is going to be worth a lot and can get us a transformational piece possibly as well.  Brown will have a year under his belt.  Marcus will have this year to break through.  Even Betts, Bogaerts adn Bradley took time. Baseball is different but David Price isn't exactly living up to his 217 million dollar contract.  I would not sell our potential for a star unless its absolutely the right guy.  Crowder, Bradley, the 18 pick, Amir etc are all potential movers but good players themselves.

I am very happy with where this team is I guess is what I'm saying.  To a fault somewhat maybe and I trust Ainge will make the right moves but I would hold out.

[Evantime34]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

If you were to set the over under what do you think would be a better number?

I think they will win 52-54 games as of their roster today, so 55 isn't that far off.

50, and even so I may take the under.

First, record is relative to the opposition. Even if you believe we've made the team better unconditionally, that doesn't automatically translate in more wins. Many of the teams in the East that we will play a lot of games with are better this season.

Second, this team has a laundry list of things to prove:
* Crowder needs to prove his offensive contribution was not a flash in the pan
* The bigs have to prove they can rebound the ball consistently
* Amir has to prove he can stay healthy
* Rozier has to prove he can replicate Turner's ballhandling and scoring off the bench
* Smart has to prove his three-point shooting woes last year were a fluke
(well, that one might be a longshot)

Sure, adding Horford is great, but it seems that the fanbase has to be repeatedly cautioned that despite his contract, Horford is not a transformational piece. Sure, he's a good player, an overall nice guy, and a clear upgrade over Jared Sullinger, but he's not going to carry you on his back to 5 or 7 more wins by himself.

I agree with your laundry list of things that need to be proven, but I think even if those don't happen Horford probably at least comes close to cancelling the negatives out. If half the things from the laundry list happen plus adding Horford we should win more than last year.

I'd also point out that the roster was upgraded last year when David Lee was bought out. With how he negatively effected the team, not having him on the team for the more than a third of the season will make a positive difference.

Also, I'm a big believer in Pythagorean win projections based on point differential being a good indicator of a team's quality. The last two years we have under performed our Pythag projection. For all the talk of this team playing above its head statistically they actually underperformed. I bring this up because I believe the team was actually better than its win total last year and I expect some mean regression to take place which could mean we over perform our pythag win total this year.

My biggest argument for winning more games than last year is defense. Last year our defense was the driving factor behind us winning 48 games. This year, with Horford replacing Sullinger, I expect it to be even better.

[walker834]

I also really like Marcus  Smart.  I don't think it's some emotional attachment either.  I think he's going to be very good from a basketball perspective to go with Brown, Isaiah and Horford.  We add another piece or two to that we are in business but I would be careful.

[Donoghus]

I think 50 is a reasonable O/U to set.

Also, the way things are setting up right now, Ainge would be nuts to trade that '17 BKN pick.

[Kuberski33]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

[hwangjini_1]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

If you were to set the over under what do you think would be a better number?

I think they will win 52-54 games as of their roster today, so 55 isn't that far off.

50, and even so I may take the under.

First, record is relative to the opposition. Even if you believe we've made the team better unconditionally, that doesn't automatically translate in more wins. Many of the teams in the East that we will play a lot of games with are better this season.

Second, this team has a laundry list of things to prove:
* Crowder needs to prove his offensive contribution was not a flash in the pan
* The bigs have to prove they can rebound the ball consistently
* Amir has to prove he can stay healthy
* Rozier has to prove he can replicate Turner's ballhandling and scoring off the bench
* Smart has to prove his three-point shooting woes last year were a fluke
(well, that one might be a longshot)

Sure, adding Horford is great, but it seems that the fanbase has to be repeatedly cautioned that despite his contract, Horford is not a transformational piece. Sure, he's a good player, an overall nice guy, and a clear upgrade over Jared Sullinger, but he's not going to carry you on his back to 5 or 7 more wins by himself.

just curious, but what was your estimate for wins last season? i know i underestimated them.

[merkins]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

Sully was our best rebounder and Turner could create offense where others did not/could not.  Dont see how shedding those two despite their flaws will not come without some pain.  Horford helps but wont be +7 or 8 in the win column.

[Evantime34]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

Maybe, but i'm pretty sure a this time last year if anyone suggested 48 wins they would have been accused of sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

[Kuberski33]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

Maybe, but i'm pretty sure a this time last year if anyone suggested 48 wins they would have been accused of sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

I agree with you there.  That's where Brad comes in.  Just saying I think it's going to take some time still - more than some people think.  But they're in a real good position moving forward.

[Ilikesports17]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

If you were to set the over under what do you think would be a better number?

I think they will win 52-54 games as of their roster today, so 55 isn't that far off.

50, and even so I may take the under.

First, record is relative to the opposition. Even if you believe we've made the team better unconditionally, that doesn't automatically translate in more wins. Many of the teams in the East that we will play a lot of games with are better this season.

Second, this team has a laundry list of things to prove:
* Crowder needs to prove his offensive contribution was not a flash in the pan
* The bigs have to prove they can rebound the ball consistently
* Amir has to prove he can stay healthy
* Rozier has to prove he can replicate Turner's ballhandling and scoring off the bench
* Smart has to prove his three-point shooting woes last year were a fluke
(well, that one might be a longshot)

Sure, adding Horford is great, but it seems that the fanbase has to be repeatedly cautioned that despite his contract, Horford is not a transformational piece. Sure, he's a good player, an overall nice guy, and a clear upgrade over Jared Sullinger, but he's not going to carry you on his back to 5 or 7 more wins by himself.

reasoning is eerily similar to that that predicted the Celtics would fail to make the playoffs last year.

I have us at 52 or 53 wins. Defense will be absolutely elite.

I fully expect Crowder to stay good, I expect Bradley and Olynyk to continue to improve and I expect a substantial improvement from Smart. It comes down to this for me: Can we replace Sullys rebounding? and what do Rozier and Brown bring to the team?

If Rozier Brown Smart can minimize Turners loss and we can replace Sullys rebounding I could easily see this team winning 55 games.

[Ilikesports17]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

Maybe, but i'm pretty sure a this time last year if anyone suggested 48 wins they would have been accused of sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

I agree with you there.  That's where Brad comes in.  Just saying I think it's going to take some time still - more than some people think.  But they're in a real good position moving forward.

Im still lost where you came up with that 44 win projection.

[Evantime34]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

Agree.  As is I'm not sure the record is even better than last season's.  Might be about a 44 win team right now.  That goes up if they address their rebounding problem which is going to cost them more than any shooting issue.

How are they 4 games worse than last year after signing Horford? Do you think Horford/Brown is a downgrade from Sully/Turner? Do you expect some of our players to regress? Do you think none of our young players get better?

Sully was by far their best rebounder.  Turner's value continually gets underestimated by posters here.  He was the de-facto point guard and he was huge at the end of games which is why Brad always had him in there.  That's gone. 

But that's as of now.  I do think they'll address the rebounding issue at some point.  And I think that by the 2nd half of the season, they'll have dealt with Turner's loss and could very well be a little better team than they were back in May.

I just think they'll lose a few more games than people think along the way.  And anyone saying 55 wins is sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

Maybe, but i'm pretty sure a this time last year if anyone suggested 48 wins they would have been accused of sipping the Kool Aid a bit much.

I agree with you there.  That's where Brad comes in.  Just saying I think it's going to take some time still - more than some people think.  But they're in a real good position moving forward.

I feel like the idea of "that's where Brad comes in" really doesn't give enough credit to the players who were responsible for the 4th best defense in the NBA. Our players seem to get underappreciated because people can point to Stevens as the reason they won more games than they thought. Giving Stevens all the credit is a way to come to terms with the team being better than expected, without admitting that they players on the team were better than they though.

 With Horford, and another year of development from our best defenders there should be a chance that we have the best defense in the NBA.

[Ilikesports17]

That 17 draft pick is going to be worth a lot and can get us a transformational piece possibly as well.  Brown will have a year under his belt.  Marcus will have this year to break through.  Even Betts, Bogaerts adn Bradley took time. Baseball is different but David Price isn't exactly living up to his 217 million dollar contract.  I would not sell our potential for a star unless its absolutely the right guy.  Crowder, Bradley, the 18 pick, Amir etc are all potential movers but good players themselves.

I am very happy with where this team is I guess is what I'm saying.  To a fault somewhat maybe and I trust Ainge will make the right moves but I would hold out.

lol baseball is really really different.

and Mookie and Bogaerts hardly took a long time, they posted a combined 10.6 WAR at age 22. That is absurd for baseball. Absurd.

[kozlodoev]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

If you were to set the over under what do you think would be a better number?

I think they will win 52-54 games as of their roster today, so 55 isn't that far off.

50, and even so I may take the under.

First, record is relative to the opposition. Even if you believe we've made the team better unconditionally, that doesn't automatically translate in more wins. Many of the teams in the East that we will play a lot of games with are better this season.

Second, this team has a laundry list of things to prove:
* Crowder needs to prove his offensive contribution was not a flash in the pan
* The bigs have to prove they can rebound the ball consistently
* Amir has to prove he can stay healthy
* Rozier has to prove he can replicate Turner's ballhandling and scoring off the bench
* Smart has to prove his three-point shooting woes last year were a fluke
(well, that one might be a longshot)

Sure, adding Horford is great, but it seems that the fanbase has to be repeatedly cautioned that despite his contract, Horford is not a transformational piece. Sure, he's a good player, an overall nice guy, and a clear upgrade over Jared Sullinger, but he's not going to carry you on his back to 5 or 7 more wins by himself.

just curious, but what was your estimate for wins last season? i know i underestimated them.

I think I had the over/under at .500, probably narrowly taking the over. Don't quote me on that, though. I'm sure I didn't expect 48 wins. OTOH, in my book once you outperform expectations by that much, you have to prove it was more than just catching lightning in a bottle.

[Evantime34]

We have a +\- 55 win team, one of the youngest rosters in the league and ANOTHER top 5 pick coming next draft if we stay put.

I think it's safe to take the under on this one.

If you were to set the over under what do you think would be a better number?

I think they will win 52-54 games as of their roster today, so 55 isn't that far off.

50, and even so I may take the under.

First, record is relative to the opposition. Even if you believe we've made the team better unconditionally, that doesn't automatically translate in more wins. Many of the teams in the East that we will play a lot of games with are better this season.

Second, this team has a laundry list of things to prove:
* Crowder needs to prove his offensive contribution was not a flash in the pan
* The bigs have to prove they can rebound the ball consistently
* Amir has to prove he can stay healthy
* Rozier has to prove he can replicate Turner's ballhandling and scoring off the bench
* Smart has to prove his three-point shooting woes last year were a fluke
(well, that one might be a longshot)

Sure, adding Horford is great, but it seems that the fanbase has to be repeatedly cautioned that despite his contract, Horford is not a transformational piece. Sure, he's a good player, an overall nice guy, and a clear upgrade over Jared Sullinger, but he's not going to carry you on his back to 5 or 7 more wins by himself.

just curious, but what was your estimate for wins last season? i know i underestimated them.

I think I had the over/under at .500, probably narrowly taking the over. Don't quote me on that, though. I'm sure I didn't expect 48 wins. OTOH, in my book once you outperform expectations by that much, you have to prove it was more than just catching lightning in a bottle.

They outperformed your expectations, but not any of the statistical projections or a lot of the local expert projections. They didn't catch lightning in a bottle because the numbers indicated a 48 ish win team before the season.