Revisiting a Smart for Noel trade

[OHCeltic]

Because we don't give up cap space for 2 max guys. Let Horford play PF and Durant be Durant.

[footey]

Noel is like the white whale of this forum.  His blocks per ranked him something like 48th, barely ahead of Horford and Amir Johnson.  But even then, blocks are the most overrated stat in basketball. 

Teams shoot about 50%.  So hypothetically, half of blocks would have been misses anyway.  Then you have the fouls committed going for blocks. Add in the blocks recovered by the offensive team or when the ball goes out of bounds and they have a 50% chance of scoring again.  Noel's per on blocks was like 1.8 or so.   Call it two a game.

Meanwhile, every steal actually takes a 50% chance of scoring away from your opponent and adds a 50% chance of you scoring.

Now there is more to defense than blocks and steals but my point is just, Noel hasn't shown his overall package leads to anything but losses.  He is overvalued on this board more than any other player living or dead.

If a foul is committed during a block, it does not count as a block. Perhaps you are referring to the process of blocking, and making the point that incidentally fouls occur during the course of attempted blocks. But if that is your point, you should have qualified that with respect to attempted steals, no?

Yes, it is an over-rated stat. But a good shot blocker gets into the head of the other team, and tends to keep them out of the paint more.  This is an important outcome of having a good shot blocker. Our team is superlative on perimeter defense, but poor in interior defense.  In part because we lack a really good shot blocker (Amir is a decent shot blocker).

[fandrew]

The most I would really give for Noel is 76er choice of Rozier/Jackson, Hunter/Young, and Olynyk and maybe the protected Clippers pick.

Gets three guys off our books, the PG's both have upside with Rozier being a good choice for a strong perimeter defender with a developing offense, or Jackson with a strong offensive game and a good defensive player as well. Hunter and Young both have potential (technically Young has potential) as guys that can stretch the floor and Hunter showed to be a strong team defender, while at Kentucky, Young showed to be a good 1 on 1 defender with potential (again not shown in NBA) to be even better. Olynyk I would offer as a floor stretcher with good team defense that can back up Simmons and small stretches at Center and SF. Olynyk can be replaced with Jared Bayless in FA.

Pretty much exactly what Philly needs.

I think Smart could fit with them, but I would rather offer a few pieces of need for them that tightens our roster for a guy that is ultimately probably a good piece rather than the star that Philly fans make Noel out to be. ALso, in terms of what they bring to the game, I view Smart and Noel kind of a wash, and I feel that Smart has a lot more passion and fire in him than Noel which is a big thing for me.

[CoachBo]

Noel is like the white whale of this forum.  His blocks per ranked him something like 48th, barely ahead of Horford and Amir Johnson.  But even then, blocks are the most overrated stat in basketball. 

Teams shoot about 50%.  So hypothetically, half of blocks would have been misses anyway.  Then you have the fouls committed going for blocks. Add in the blocks recovered by the offensive team or when the ball goes out of bounds and they have a 50% chance of scoring again.  Noel's per on blocks was like 1.8 or so.   Call it two a game.

Meanwhile, every steal actually takes a 50% chance of scoring away from your opponent and adds a 50% chance of you scoring.

Now there is more to defense than blocks and steals but my point is just, Noel hasn't shown his overall package leads to anything but losses.  He is overvalued on this board more than any other player living or dead.

If a foul is committed during a block, it does not count as a block. Perhaps you are referring to the process of blocking, and making the point that incidentally fouls occur during the course of attempted blocks. But if that is your point, you should have qualified that with respect to attempted steals, no?

Yes, it is an over-rated stat. But a good shot blocker gets into the head of the other team, and tends to keep them out of the paint more.  This is an important outcome of having a good shot blocker. Our team is superlative on perimeter defense, but poor in interior defense.  In part because we lack a really good shot blocker (Amir is a decent shot blocker).

An inside presence and shooting are our two biggest needs.

Neither have been significantly addressed - unless opponents agree to leave the floor when Jaylen Brown shoots.

Both need to be addressed.

[bmac934]

NEVER in a million years would I do this trade.  Marcus is WAY too good to be discussed in a trade for Noel.

[NHCelticsFan]

I would not do this trade as proposed.

However, it does touch on an interesting point, which is our backcourt logjam and need for a center.  I do think we have to consider trading one of guards in a deal for a center, but the question is which one? 

I would have to give some serious thought to Smart for Noel and the Lakers pick.  Not sure I want Noel though, especially with the pay raise he is due.

[MikeJelly]

Any chance Philly might accept 2 of Rozier/Hunter/Young/Jackson and a couple first rounders for Noel? They're not gonna max Noel in RFA anyways (thus they'll lose him for nothing) and the fact they have too many bigs just helps our case. This gives them depth at the guard slot and gives us our rim protector without losing our core players.

[arctic 3.0]

Why trade an asset or two for Noel when you can sign Biyombo?

Because:

1)  Noel at 22 (with only 2 years of NBA experience) is already a better player then Biyumbo is at 23 after 5 years in the league

2) Because Noel is far more talented offensively, so has a much higher chance of one day becoming a two-way player - Biyumbo is as good as useless offensively

3) Because Noel is taller, longer and even more athletic  with significantly higher upside

Why trade an asset or two when you can sign him next year without giving up something ?

The idea is to bring in 2 max players right?
If that's KD and Horford than I think we still need a defensive center.
Can't sign bizmak or any one else if we manage to land both stars.
Thus  trade from a position of wealth to fill a position of need.

[celticsclay]

Noel's value really seems to be cratering...He could get shipped for almost next to nothing at the deadline.

[Surferdad]

Any chance Philly might accept 2 of Rozier/Hunter/Young/Jackson and a couple first rounders for Noel? They're not gonna max Noel in RFA anyways (thus they'll lose him for nothing) and the fact they have too many bigs just helps our case. This gives them depth at the guard slot and gives us our rim protector without losing our core players.

Something like this. Keep in mind that Philly is still in a tough spot in their front court. We all must hope that Embiid comes back fully healthy.

[Celtics4ever]

Smart's offensive game is already miles better than Noel's

I think your a little off in your analysis.   Please note,  these are stats, not opinion, from last year:

Smart  9.1 PPG  .35% FG  .25% 3P and 3 APG  and 1.3 OReb  PER 11.34
Noel   11.1 PPG   .52% FG   and 1.7 APG and 2.3 OReb  PER 16.28

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2991280/nerlens-noel

I do not think he is miles ahead, in fact, one could make a strong argument Noel is the better offensively.   I like Smart and he is an absolute beast on defense but  he is pretty dicey on offense unless he gets hot which is not often.

Smart also had the benefit of going up against second team guys more than Noel.  Smart started 10 games to Noel's 62 but I doubt you considered this as factor given your analysis of who was superior on offense.

In an ideal world, we would trade the PG who does worst in summer league and pick for Noel.   We can offer a few other assets but I would not offer the BRK pick.   Maybe 2 seconds or a late first.

[flybono]

This topic was hashed out over the winter but I thought it deserved another look.
With a 6'10 point guard now running the show in philly do the Sixers really need a ball dominant Pg?

Smart would be a good fit there.

But I'm not trying to make the '6rs better...
Does slotting Noel into the middle help this team more than Marcus "bulldog" Smart?
 
He certainly fills a need, and plays with similar passion.

We would still have Bradley, crowder manning the perimeter D.
Brown's likely to contribute some tenacious D this year and Rozier looks to be improving.

That's a good stock of hard nosed defenders on the wing.

Swapping Swapping smart for a big (especially one who brings the same passion for D) seems to me to be the right call.

Both teams need what the others got, hope they can make a trade.

(How long before the haters turn this into a criticism of DA's "no fair trade" agenda?)

I'd make that trade tomorrow. I don't think Smart will ever consistently score the basketball, and I have serious questions about his maturity as well.

Maturity issues?  So you'd trade him for a guy who trashed a rental house with marijuana, gatorade, and other crap, and left a "rest in peace" sign on the front walkway?

Yes

[Beat LA]

Noel is like the white whale of this forum.  His blocks per ranked him something like 48th, barely ahead of Horford and Amir Johnson.  But even then, blocks are the most overrated stat in basketball. 

Teams shoot about 50%.  So hypothetically, half of blocks would have been misses anyway.  Then you have the fouls committed going for blocks. Add in the blocks recovered by the offensive team or when the ball goes out of bounds and they have a 50% chance of scoring again.  Noel's per on blocks was like 1.8 or so.   Call it two a game.

Meanwhile, every steal actually takes a 50% chance of scoring away from your opponent and adds a 50% chance of you scoring.

Now there is more to defense than blocks and steals but my point is just, Noel hasn't shown his overall package leads to anything but losses.  He is overvalued on this board more than any other player living or dead.

If a foul is committed during a block, it does not count as a block. Perhaps you are referring to the process of blocking, and making the point that incidentally fouls occur during the course of attempted blocks. But if that is your point, you should have qualified that with respect to attempted steals, no?

Yes, it is an over-rated stat. But a good shot blocker gets into the head of the other team, and tends to keep them out of the paint more.  This is an important outcome of having a good shot blocker. Our team is superlative on perimeter defense, but poor in interior defense.  In part because we lack a really good shot blocker (Amir is a decent shot blocker).

An inside presence and shooting are our two biggest needs.

Neither have been significantly addressed - unless opponents agree to leave the floor when Jaylen Brown shoots.

Both need to be addressed.

Lol, TP . Even if that were to happen, though, I still doubt that the Celtics could come up with the offensive rebound .

[Dino Pitino]

Noel is like the white whale of this forum.  His blocks per ranked him something like 48th, barely ahead of Horford and Amir Johnson.  But even then, blocks are the most overrated stat in basketball. 

Teams shoot about 50%.  So hypothetically, half of blocks would have been misses anyway.  Then you have the fouls committed going for blocks.  Add in the blocks recovered by the offensive team or when the ball goes out of bounds and they have a 50% chance of scoring again.  Noel's per on blocks was like 1.8 or so.   Call it two a game.

Meanwhile, every steal actually takes a 50% chance of scoring away from your opponent and adds a 50% chance of you scoring.

Now there is more to defense than blocks and steals but my point is just, Noel hasn't shown his overall package leads to anything but losses.  He is overvalued on this board more than any other player living or dead.

Dude, did you forget that Noel also gets 2 steals a game?

[Dino Pitino]

No to a Smart-Noel trade, by the way. Lateral move. Smart slightly more valuable individually, Noel more valuable for team need. No gain, no trade.