Author Topic: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots  (Read 1355 times)

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2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« on: June 27, 2016, 09:58:57 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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With the Draft over I turned my attention to FA this weekend and the more I read the more I am really confused with what DA will do.

Draft, I personally think DA did a wonderful job with the value he got at each pick. With that being said I do not view any one drafted this year as a clear consistent contributor next season. Brown will get a chance early and may crack the rotation as a 15mpg guy but I do not think he will have the same impact that Winslow had on Miami as a rookie, Zizic (if he doesn't stash) could serve as a rotational big this year, and Jackson could fill the same role as Rozier if minutes come available. As of right now I see Brown and Jackson on the roster 100%, Bentil will have to show really well in summer league to avoid just receiving a D-League contract, Yabusele is a clear stash, and Zizic may put up a fight and try to join the Cs asap. For the sake of this exercise I will assume Brown, Jackson and Bentil are on the roster next season.

Roster/Rotation

PG: IT, Rozier, Jackson
SG: AB, Smart, Hunter
SF: Crowder, Brown, Young
PF: KO, Mickey, Bentil
C:

That fills 12/15 roster spots

The Cs have the option to pick up Amir (12mill) and Jerebko (5mill). Jerebko to me is a clear 100%, his contract is to good to pass on.

That fills 13/15 roster spots

This is where questions start to arise.

The likely loss of Turner will have to likely transfer a significant amount responsibility to Smart, Rozier and Brown. Particularly Rozier and Smart will have to pick up the play making duties and control the offense when IT isn't on the court. I also expect more of IT off the ball like we saw in the playoffs.

The big man rotation is an even bigger question mark. Sully could be retained but I fear the outcome of paying Sully market value long-term. His health and conditioning are both red flags for me. Amir could also be retained at 12mill for the season. However retaining both of these bigs and losing Turner on the Wing would likely lead to a step back from the 48wins of this past season. This may not be a bad thing if it means further developing younger players while still making the playoffs. A more likely situation is the Cs look to upgrade at the 4 and or 5. When looking to upgrade I think the playoffs and interviews in the past have made it clear what the Cs will look for at each spot.

Center: BS has stated a few times that he would like to see a rim running center added and DA has mentioned a need for more rim protection.

Power Forward: The playoffs put on display the need for shooting and versatility at this position. A traditional PF (Sully) is fine in the regular season but they are exploited in the playoffs. (Thunder had same issue with Kanter).

Options

Center: Horford (ideal), Whitside (pass), Howard (scary but maybe), Biyombo (maybe but likely over payed), Mahinmi (nice fit), Ezili (injury concerns), Noah (love the fit short term), P Gasol (D a concern), Hibbert (1+team option?), Amir (return), T Zeller (keep him?)

Power Forward: R Anderson (perfect fit but worth the $$?), Parson (fit but injuries scary), M Williams (solid not spectacular), Harkless (young and stepped up in playoffs, Deng (short term)


Looking at these groups I do not expect DA to dump huge money on two players. I could see Anderson or Parson signed and then a short term Center Amir or Hibbert added. The one major issue I see is lack of Depth. This may ultimately cost Bentil a roster spot or Young to be traded. Depth could be added by retaining Zeller or bring Zizic over this year.   
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Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2016, 10:28:57 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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The more I think about it the more I think that Durant will be the only guy we offer the max to this summer. At least for the UFAs. I don't see us even talking to Horford in the end unless it is to see if he'll sign for ~$10m per.

Add Durant to last year's core group and then add via FA or trade some serviceable big men. For example Pau Gasol if he would come for between $10-15m per year on a 2 year deal. Another guy is Pachulia or Mahinmi. We still have a stupid amount of trade assets which we can capitalise on mid season if a star player becomes available.

If there is no Durant then simply do the same. Here I am assuming that wherever Durant signs it is with the full intention of staying there post 2017 and we can consider ourselves out of the race. Sign a guy like Gasol to shore up the frontline. Except now we can utilise some of the cap space to shore up the 3/4 spot as well. Perhaps a guy like Jared Dudley or Mirza Teletovic on a short term deal. Again we would still have all our trade assets to capitalise on a star becoming available but now we'd have cap space too. This scenario should also open up minutes for the frontcourt guys like Mickey to develop and see if we have a building block in him.

I don't want to bring in someone like Whiteside or Horford that isn't going to take us to the next step and also block development. Even missing out on Durant, a few simple additions take us to the playoffs again and more importantly position us flexibly to deal with whatever the future gives us. The patient approach is still the best one. We have one more full year to get that star player before we really need to be worried about the upcoming extensions for guys like Bradley and Thomas. Til then lets not overpay for mediocrity

Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2016, 05:26:46 AM »

Offline iadera

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I don't think we'll bring any significant new player to our roster.

Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2016, 06:07:05 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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I just had a horrifying vision of Danny having passed on trades to preserve two max free agent slots, and then (aggghhh!) using one of them on Harrison Barnes. Please somebody tell me that the Brown pick will now preclude us from paying Barnes.
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Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2016, 07:06:52 AM »

Offline tyrone biggums

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I don't think we'll bring any significant new player to our roster.

Agreed my predictions are a bunch of 1+1 moves

Evan Turner (14 million 1+1)
Sullinger (14 Million 1+1) or whatever the qualifying offer is.
Colton Iverson comes over
Zeller 1+1 or whatever the qualifying offer is
Amir gets his option picked up
JJ gets his picked up.

Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2016, 07:23:57 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I don't think we'll bring any significant new player to our roster.

Agreed my predictions are a bunch of 1+1 moves

Evan Turner (14 million 1+1)
Sullinger (14 Million 1+1) or whatever the qualifying offer is.
Colton Iverson comes over
Zeller 1+1 or whatever the qualifying offer is
Amir gets his option picked up
JJ gets his picked up.
I think you can remove Sullinger from that and add somone like Mahinmi or Pachulia for less on a similar deal. If there is no major signing I definitely see us promoting youth like Mickey and Rozier into the rotation.

Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2016, 07:40:19 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Sullinger (14 Million 1+1) or whatever the qualifying offer is.

Why would we sign a guy who either breaks down every season or gains so much weight that he becomes useless?  Thank the heavens your not our GM.

Time to cut ties, immediately.

Re: 2016 Free Agency and Roster spots
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2016, 08:08:43 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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I don't think we'll bring any significant new player to our roster.

Agreed my predictions are a bunch of 1+1 moves

Evan Turner (14 million 1+1)
Sullinger (14 Million 1+1) or whatever the qualifying offer is.
Colton Iverson comes over
Zeller 1+1 or whatever the qualifying offer is
Amir gets his option picked up
JJ gets his picked up.

I do think a bunch a 1+1 deals are a possibility however the team will not have the space to do what you propose with out moving players are convincing Bentil and Jackson to draft and stash.

PG: IT, Rozier, Jackson
SG: AB, Smart, Hunter
SF: Crowder, Turner, Brown, Young
PF: Sully,KO, Jerebko, Mickey, Bentil
C: Amir, Zeller, Iverson

thats 18 players

Assume Iverson isnt involved, Cs move young, and Bentil is convinced to sign with the D-League. That would get the team to 15 players.

PG: IT, Rozier, Jackson
SG: AB, Smart, Hunter
SF: Crowder, Turner, Brown
PF: Sully,KO, Jerebko, Mickey
C: Amir, Zeller

This is a very feasible roster for next season but I just cant image Sully and Turner taking the gamble of a 1+1 deal. Amir and Jerebko took these offers because they represented a roughly 50% jump in pay from what the market dictated. Turner is likely due $10-12mill on the open market this season and I would guess sully will be in the same range. This will probably be both of their big pay day contracts and I cant see them settling for 1+1. Especially not Sully given his injury history.

One player who I didn't think of in my OP but who could also be an 1+1 option this off season would be Bass. I could see the logic if DA retains Amir and Jerebko then signs bass to an 8mill 1+1 deal. This would be done anticipating KO taking over the starting PF position with Bass serving as a safety net.

I also floated a trade idea recently built around trading KO + Amir and additional minor assets (Hunter+ 18 Cs+1st 19 clipper 1st) for Valancuinus. If the Raptors really want to retain Biyombo and DeRozen then may act on such a deal. This would also open up the roster for a possible Bass return.   
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