Author Topic: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?  (Read 16959 times)

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Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #120 on: June 29, 2016, 01:53:03 PM »

Offline danglertx

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What's missing from this discussion of Smart is that his efficiency isn't as bad as it looks.

Here's the ugly stats (career):

FG%: .357
3p%: .296

These are dreadful numbers. For comparison, Evan Turner's career numbers (Turner is not a very efficient player himself):

FG% .432
3p%: .305

However, these numbers badly overstate the difference in these players' efficiency.

Smart career TS%: .476
Turner career TS%: .489

This difference is due to (1) free throws:

Smart FTr .291, FT% .720
Turner FTr .218, FT% .777

And most importantly to 3 point attempts:

Smart 3pr .510, 3p% .296
Turner 3pr .130, 3p% .305.

Even though Smart shoots a way lower percentage from the field than Turner does, nonetheless he ends up with similar efficiency as Turner because

(1) a 30% 3 is just as good as a 45% 2 (Turner 2p%: .451), and
(2) the most efficient type of possession for both players is free throws, and Smart excels at drawing fouls.

All in all, Smart's efficiency is bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. He needs to improve, but as fans we shouldn't be wringing our hands and proclaiming him a bust.

And for that good post... a TP!

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #121 on: June 29, 2016, 02:56:20 PM »

Offline chiken Green

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Tony Allen is wearing a Ring so I'll take it..

And for whoever said Offense is more important please explain that to Gs who had their vaunted Offense Stuffed.. And the Finals MVP won lead his team to game 7 victory on the road did it not because of his Offense  but because the  the many individual defensive plays he made..

Defense wins championships.. This has been proven..
Marcus is one of the best in the league.. We can live with his offense as long as he gives it up on the defensive end.

Question. Then why make the pick? When you can just trade it for Tony Allen?

No one is going to argue what great defense means to winning, but Smart needs to put it all together to be worth the #6 pick and he's lucky James Young was an even bigger disappointment. I'm personally not satisfied with sub 40% shooting ON THE FLOOR! You have to be the biggest homer to think that's actually great for our team and that Smart is not due for any improvement because "that defense tho :o"

Simple. I am not sure where you fall at in the whole Jimmy Butler thing but alot of People are ready to throw the Farm and the Farmers wife in a Deal for him.. When you look at his first 2 years (Butlers) and compare them to Smart you would have to think that Smart is on his way to becoming Jimmy Butler at the very least..

Smart has just completed his 2nd year and already he is a proven Asset when it comes to winning games.. Yes his offense is not What his defense is but you have to give the kid time.. He is ALREADY Tony Allen in only his 2nd full year..

Thats why I draft this guy.
People act like Smart is a 5 year Vet or something. Just 2 years in..

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #122 on: June 29, 2016, 02:58:00 PM »

Offline footey

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Smart has to become a more efficient scorer. Period. I don't care so much about his 3 point shooting percentage, he just needs to become more efficient.

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #123 on: June 29, 2016, 06:16:55 PM »

Offline #1P4P

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Marcus wasn't an overly efficient player in college, I didn't expect him to become an efficient player during his development stage in the NBA.

Smart is a special defensive player. He has displayed elite defensive awareness, instincts, and and off the charts defensive versatility. Even if he doesn't develop much more offensively, he could be part of an unmatchable small ball lineup, where he plays the 4. I fully expect Marcus to become a 15 PPG player, as soon as next year and possibly develop his game to Billups-level w/ All NBA defense.

People are sour on him here because all they see is the inefficient offense he had this past season, but that's to be expected becuase most people can't project past measurables and already established production. Same people that didn't want the Ainge-proposed Rondo-Curry trade and the KG-DeAndre trade.

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #124 on: June 29, 2016, 07:24:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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What's missing from this discussion of Smart is that his efficiency isn't as bad as it looks.

Here's the ugly stats (career):

FG%: .357
3p%: .296

These are dreadful numbers. For comparison, Evan Turner's career numbers (Turner is not a very efficient player himself):

FG% .432
3p%: .305

However, these numbers badly overstate the difference in these players' efficiency.

Smart career TS%: .476
Turner career TS%: .489

This difference is due to (1) free throws:

Smart FTr .291, FT% .720
Turner FTr .218, FT% .777

And most importantly to 3 point attempts:

Smart 3pr .510, 3p% .296
Turner 3pr .130, 3p% .305.

Even though Smart shoots a way lower percentage from the field than Turner does, nonetheless he ends up with similar efficiency as Turner because

(1) a 30% 3 is just as good as a 45% 2 (Turner 2p%: .451), and
(2) the most efficient type of possession for both players is free throws, and Smart excels at drawing fouls.

All in all, Smart's efficiency is bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. He needs to improve, but as fans we shouldn't be wringing our hands and proclaiming him a bust.

And for that good post... a TP!
People quoting "TS%" out of context is one of my pet peeves. 

Smart's TS% of .463% was 334th out of 350 players in the league last season.  That's horrible.  Just horrible. 

RIcky Rubio is thought to be one of the worst shooters in the league and his TS% last season was .529% (212th in the league).


Please do not quote stats that Smart is one of the very worst in the entire league at as some example of how his inefficiency is overstated.   A TS% of .463% is vomit-enducing hot garbage.

That's not to say he will not make a leap and improve.  But c'mon. 

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #125 on: June 29, 2016, 07:30:42 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #126 on: June 29, 2016, 09:53:38 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

You have touched on some keys for me regarding Marcus Smart's potential future.  At a very young age, he is a guy who "contributes to winning" and has "earned his coach's trust," as you say.  To me, that's a really big deal for his future.  I'm not worried about him dropping out of the Celtics rotation.  You ever hear how glowingly Brad Stevens talks about Marcus Smart?  He says things like--and I paraphrase--"Marcus makes it hard to not have him on the floor in crunch time, because he's just such a high impact player."  Brad Stevens doesn't strike me as a guy who says things just to blow smoke.

That kind of trust from his coaches--and undoubtedly his teammates--is going to go along way towards Marcus Smart finding himself in positions to improve.  I don't think he'll become an offensive superstar, but I do think he'll improve offensively to the point where he makes a positive impact on both ends of the floor.

Questions still remain about what his best position is offensively.  Personally, I see him as a true "combo guard."  I know that term has negative connotations for most, but I don't mind it.  It means you can pair him with a lot of different kinds of back court partners and create a successful backcourt. 

But, yes, he's got to improve his jump shot.  Last time I waited for a young Celtics star guard to improve his jump shot, I ended up waiting a lot longer than I would have liked.  Here I am again, waiting for a favorite to find his jumper . . . and then for Jaylen Brown to find his.  When will I ever learn?!!
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PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
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C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #127 on: June 29, 2016, 10:03:06 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

Actually, I would say he is getting close to the value of a number 6 pick. Like he only needs to improve like 15-20% on offence, and he is clearly a hit draft pick

Hezonja
Marcus
Noel
Lillard
Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Johnny Flynn (wow..)
Gallo
Jianlian
Brandon Roy
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #128 on: June 29, 2016, 10:21:58 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Speaking of player comparisons.  Avery Bradley should give us hope.  His first year of shooting stunk.  His second year of shooting was significantly better.  But his third year of shooting showed significant and alarming regression.  Nowadays he is a very good outside threat all the way out to 3 point range.

AB year1 2pt% 34.3, 3pt% 0, FT% 50.0
AB year2 2pt% 49.8, 3pt% 40.7, FT% 79.5
AB year3 2p% 40.2, 3pt% 31.7, FT% 75.5
AB year4 2pt% 43.8, 3pt% 39.5, FT% 80.4

So if you had written AB off during his regression year, you'd be wrong about his prospects as a shooter.  What I find a significant correlation is that his FT shooting stayed at an improved level and his shooting eventually rounded out to match his prowess at the charity stripe.

It's way too early to dismiss Smart considering he has shown the leap in FT% which indicates that his shooting form is improving.  Now he just needs to put it all together, improve his shot selection as well, and translate that improved form to shooting in the field.

Sometimes it takes players longer to develop their games.  The regression year is alarming, but hardly signals that Smart won't be able to put it all together this early into his career.

AB stats source:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01.html

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #129 on: June 29, 2016, 11:31:05 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

You have touched on some keys for me regarding Marcus Smart's potential future.  At a very young age, he is a guy who "contributes to winning" and has "earned his coach's trust," as you say.  To me, that's a really big deal for his future.  I'm not worried about him dropping out of the Celtics rotation.  You ever hear how glowingly Brad Stevens talks about Marcus Smart?  He says things like--and I paraphrase--"Marcus makes it hard to not have him on the floor in crunch time, because he's just such a high impact player."  Brad Stevens doesn't strike me as a guy who says things just to blow smoke.

That kind of trust from his coaches--and undoubtedly his teammates--is going to go along way towards Marcus Smart finding himself in positions to improve.  I don't think he'll become an offensive superstar, but I do think he'll improve offensively to the point where he makes a positive impact on both ends of the floor.

Questions still remain about what his best position is offensively.  Personally, I see him as a true "combo guard."  I know that term has negative connotations for most, but I don't mind it.  It means you can pair him with a lot of different kinds of back court partners and create a successful backcourt. 

But, yes, he's got to improve his jump shot.  Last time I waited for a young Celtics star guard to improve his jump shot, I ended up waiting a lot longer than I would have liked.  Here I am again, waiting for a favorite to find his jumper . . . and then for Jaylen Brown to find his.  When will I ever learn?!!
Frankly, I think people misapply combo guard often.  In my mind, a combo guard is one that that play either PG or SG well.  And while that seems simple enough, the issue with smart is that he can't really play either position very well, at least not offensively. 

To use another analogy, it's the difference between a tweener (a negative term) and a matchup nightmare.  The matchup nightmare can use his speed or strength depending on the defender.  The tweener has issues against either kind of defender.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 11:36:15 PM by droopdog7 »

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #130 on: June 29, 2016, 11:36:14 PM »

Offline loco_91

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What's missing from this discussion of Smart is that his efficiency isn't as bad as it looks.

Here's the ugly stats (career):

FG%: .357
3p%: .296

These are dreadful numbers. For comparison, Evan Turner's career numbers (Turner is not a very efficient player himself):

FG% .432
3p%: .305

However, these numbers badly overstate the difference in these players' efficiency.

Smart career TS%: .476
Turner career TS%: .489

This difference is due to (1) free throws:

Smart FTr .291, FT% .720
Turner FTr .218, FT% .777

And most importantly to 3 point attempts:

Smart 3pr .510, 3p% .296
Turner 3pr .130, 3p% .305.

Even though Smart shoots a way lower percentage from the field than Turner does, nonetheless he ends up with similar efficiency as Turner because

(1) a 30% 3 is just as good as a 45% 2 (Turner 2p%: .451), and
(2) the most efficient type of possession for both players is free throws, and Smart excels at drawing fouls.

All in all, Smart's efficiency is bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. He needs to improve, but as fans we shouldn't be wringing our hands and proclaiming him a bust.

And for that good post... a TP!
People quoting "TS%" out of context is one of my pet peeves. 

Smart's TS% of .463% was 334th out of 350 players in the league last season.  That's horrible.  Just horrible. 

RIcky Rubio is thought to be one of the worst shooters in the league and his TS% last season was .529% (212th in the league).


Please do not quote stats that Smart is one of the very worst in the entire league at as some example of how his inefficiency is overstated.   A TS% of .463% is vomit-enducing hot garbage.

That's not to say he will not make a leap and improve.  But c'mon.

How was I quoting anything "out of context"? I was pointing out that while Smart's FG% paints him as a historically inefficient player, his .476 TS% is bolstered by his high 3pr and FTr, so that his inefficiency is "bad, but it is not as bad as it looks." This is an accurate description.

What part of this do you disagree with, exactly? I should have been more graphic in my description of how bad Smart's TS% is?

C'mon.

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #131 on: June 30, 2016, 12:23:12 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

You have touched on some keys for me regarding Marcus Smart's potential future.  At a very young age, he is a guy who "contributes to winning" and has "earned his coach's trust," as you say.  To me, that's a really big deal for his future.  I'm not worried about him dropping out of the Celtics rotation.  You ever hear how glowingly Brad Stevens talks about Marcus Smart?  He says things like--and I paraphrase--"Marcus makes it hard to not have him on the floor in crunch time, because he's just such a high impact player."  Brad Stevens doesn't strike me as a guy who says things just to blow smoke.

That kind of trust from his coaches--and undoubtedly his teammates--is going to go along way towards Marcus Smart finding himself in positions to improve.  I don't think he'll become an offensive superstar, but I do think he'll improve offensively to the point where he makes a positive impact on both ends of the floor.

Questions still remain about what his best position is offensively.  Personally, I see him as a true "combo guard."  I know that term has negative connotations for most, but I don't mind it.  It means you can pair him with a lot of different kinds of back court partners and create a successful backcourt. 

But, yes, he's got to improve his jump shot.  Last time I waited for a young Celtics star guard to improve his jump shot, I ended up waiting a lot longer than I would have liked.  Here I am again, waiting for a favorite to find his jumper . . . and then for Jaylen Brown to find his.  When will I ever learn?!!
Frankly, I think people misapply combo guard often.  In my mind, a combo guard is one that that play either PG or SG well.  And while that seems simple enough, the issue with smart is that he can't really play either position very well, at least not offensively. 

To use another analogy, it's the difference between a tweener (a negative term) and a matchup nightmare.  The matchup nightmare can use his speed or strength depending on the defender.  The tweener has issues against either kind of defender.

Tweeners is a term exclusive to SF/PF no? Too slow to guard 3s, too short to guard 4s
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #132 on: June 30, 2016, 01:03:43 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

Actually, I would say he is getting close to the value of a number 6 pick. Like he only needs to improve like 15-20% on offence, and he is clearly a hit draft pick

Hezonja
Marcus
Noel
Lillard
Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Johnny Flynn (wow..)
Gallo
Jianlian
Brandon Roy

There are plenty of disappointing guys picked in the top ten of the draft.

What I mean by top six pedigree is what you hope to get out of a guy when you take him at that part of the draft.

Obviously you could do worse than a hard working defensive role player, but I think it's fair to say if it was known that's all he'd be when it was the Celts turn to pick on draft night in 2014, they would've taken a chance on somebody else.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #133 on: June 30, 2016, 01:10:46 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

Actually, I would say he is getting close to the value of a number 6 pick. Like he only needs to improve like 15-20% on offence, and he is clearly a hit draft pick

Hezonja
Marcus
Noel
Lillard
Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Johnny Flynn (wow..)
Gallo
Jianlian
Brandon Roy

There are plenty of disappointing guys picked in the top ten of the draft.

What I mean by top six pedigree is what you hope to get out of a guy when you take him at that part of the draft.

Obviously you could do worse than a hard working defensive role player, but I think it's fair to say if it was known that's all he'd be when it was the Celts turn to pick on draft night in 2014, they would've taken a chance on somebody else.
Smart could be our Tristan Thompson. He isnt what you had in mind when you took him 4th, but Im sure Cleveland is [dang] glad they had him. I dont think theyd have won that ring without him.

Hopefully some day we can type that about Smart.
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Re: Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?
« Reply #134 on: June 30, 2016, 12:49:37 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Smart has already generated a fair amount of value for a decent team despite his offensive shortcomings, so I think we can say that he will have a nice career as a role player whether or not he ever improves.

The question is, will he ever come close to the pedigree of a top 6 selection?  Will he ever be a solid two-way starter, i.e. a guy you can depend on for 30+ minutes per night on both ends of the floor?

For the answer to that question to be yes, he will need to improve drastically on offense.  Because it's true, his scoring efficiency so far in his career is stupendously bad.  But the fact that he's carved out such a significant role on a decent team despite his ineptitude on offense speaks well of his ability to earn a coach's trust and contribute to winning.

You have touched on some keys for me regarding Marcus Smart's potential future.  At a very young age, he is a guy who "contributes to winning" and has "earned his coach's trust," as you say.  To me, that's a really big deal for his future.  I'm not worried about him dropping out of the Celtics rotation.  You ever hear how glowingly Brad Stevens talks about Marcus Smart?  He says things like--and I paraphrase--"Marcus makes it hard to not have him on the floor in crunch time, because he's just such a high impact player."  Brad Stevens doesn't strike me as a guy who says things just to blow smoke.

That kind of trust from his coaches--and undoubtedly his teammates--is going to go along way towards Marcus Smart finding himself in positions to improve.  I don't think he'll become an offensive superstar, but I do think he'll improve offensively to the point where he makes a positive impact on both ends of the floor.

Questions still remain about what his best position is offensively.  Personally, I see him as a true "combo guard."  I know that term has negative connotations for most, but I don't mind it.  It means you can pair him with a lot of different kinds of back court partners and create a successful backcourt. 

But, yes, he's got to improve his jump shot.  Last time I waited for a young Celtics star guard to improve his jump shot, I ended up waiting a lot longer than I would have liked.  Here I am again, waiting for a favorite to find his jumper . . . and then for Jaylen Brown to find his.  When will I ever learn?!!
Frankly, I think people misapply combo guard often.  In my mind, a combo guard is one that that play either PG or SG well.  And while that seems simple enough, the issue with smart is that he can't really play either position very well, at least not offensively. 

To use another analogy, it's the difference between a tweener (a negative term) and a matchup nightmare.  The matchup nightmare can use his speed or strength depending on the defender.  The tweener has issues against either kind of defender.

Tweeners is a term exclusive to SF/PF no? Too slow to guard 3s, too short to guard 4s
Perhaps.  Could also be used to describe PF's and Centers I would think.  And it's more complicated because there is an offensive and a defensive side.

Either way, my point is that Smart is not a good PG or SG right now.  As opposed to someone who can do either, he can do neither.