Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?

[ThePaintedArea]

Especially if he continues to spend most of his time off the ball, I'm having a hard time letting myself expect a lot more than what we have already seen.

My hope is he stays healthier and can give the Celts around the 10 pts 4 rebounds 3 assists 1.5 steals he's been putting up when given the minutes, but with closer to 40/33/70 shooting for the season.

Well the ft shooting is already way beyond that, improving substantially y1 to y2, and ditto the ft rate, which was really good for a y2 player. Better finishing in the lane looks doable; he's got the strength and a repertoire of moves. .333 from the arc looks doable, too, given his y1 performance.

[Snakehead]

I'm fine with whatever, as long as the role is tailored to his abilities rather than potential expectations.

Still my gripe as well.  I think he has shown the best feel for passing and playmaking of anything and instead I feel like in part he is jacking up threes because he's being asked to be a SG.  I hope he gets more of a chance to run the pick and roll and improves in that area most this next year.  I have been encouraged by him late last year.

I hope we lose Turner and he gets a chance to play PG more.  I think we can play IT more and use him off ball to good success as well, hopefully something that happens more this next season.

[tankcity!]

It's time for Smart to show signs of improvement. He looks the same to me as he did in his rookie year IMO. He's a little better at handling, but still can't finish because his lack of explosion. If he is unable to shoot above 40% from the field this year, I think it's safe to assume he's going to be a one way player.

[PaulAllen]

more consistent shooting... There were games where he was on fire (mostly shoots threes) then dud games 1-10 and so on...

Defense is there, toughness is there, not overly turnover prone, better ball handling but still needs to finish better...

Its safe to say we will see how he spent his offseason early in the year and can make a better prediction then..

[kozlodoev]

I'm fine with whatever, as long as the role is tailored to his abilities rather than potential expectations.

Still my gripe as well.  I think he has shown the best feel for passing and playmaking of anything and instead I feel like in part he is jacking up threes because he's being asked to be a SG.  I hope he gets more of a chance to run the pick and roll and improves in that area most this next year.  I have been encouraged by him late last year.

I hope we lose Turner and he gets a chance to play PG more.  I think we can play IT more and use him off ball to good success as well, hopefully something that happens more this next season.

I don't agree. I think he's been given the chance to assume control of the second unit on multiple occasions, and he's shown questionable decision making and played out of control every time -- so we invariably had to revert back to Turner.

Keep his involvement in the offense to a minimum, find a go-to offensive move that works. I feel the latter would be more of a challenge.

[vjcsmoke]

Marcus Smart's shooting percentages dropped from year 1 to year 2.  Yes this is a concern.  However his FT shooting improved from 64.6% to 77.7%.  So that gives you hope.  Better FT shooting percentage is an indicator of better shooting form.  I believe what Smart really needs to improve on the most is shot selection. 

If he does not improve his BBIQ in terms of shot selection, he will continue to take tough shots, and miss them.  Why because you will miss tough shots more often than easy shots, and you might not use your full form on tough, contested shots because there's not enough room to do so.  I hope Smart used this summer to work intensively on his shot under the supervision of a coach who is a shooting guru.  Because if Smart fixes his shot + his shot selection he can become a dangerous player.

We've already seen him make impact in the playoffs, essentially stealing game 4 vs the Hawks.  Now he needs to continue that play into the regular season of 2016.

[CelticGuardian]

Wow, those percentages are just... *shivers*... Not even Antoine Walker shot it so obliviously. Smart needs to turn on the jets and I'm serious if he can't shoot at all next season... that's it, I'm sorry but he's tony allen.

[chiken Green]

Tony Allen is wearing a Ring so I'll take it..

And for whoever said Offense is more important please explain that to Gs who had their vaunted Offense Stuffed.. And the Finals MVP won lead his team to game 7 victory on the road did it not because of his Offense  but because the  the many individual defensive plays he made..

Defense wins championships.. This has been proven..
Marcus is one of the best in the league.. We can live with his offense as long as he gives it up on the defensive end.

[meangreenmachine]

Smart is an elite defensive talent. I expect him to be better than Bradley in all facets of the game this time two years from now.

[CelticGuardian]

Tony Allen is wearing a Ring so I'll take it..

And for whoever said Offense is more important please explain that to Gs who had their vaunted Offense Stuffed.. And the Finals MVP won lead his team to game 7 victory on the road did it not because of his Offense  but because the  the many individual defensive plays he made..

Defense wins championships.. This has been proven..
Marcus is one of the best in the league.. We can live with his offense as long as he gives it up on the defensive end.

Question. Then why make the pick? When you can just trade it for Tony Allen?

No one is going to argue what great defense means to winning, but Smart needs to put it all together to be worth the #6 pick and he's lucky James Young was an even bigger disappointment. I'm personally not satisfied with sub 40% shooting ON THE FLOOR! You have to be the biggest homer to think that's actually great for our team and that Smart is not due for any improvement because "that defense tho "

[droopdog7]

Guys who are great offensive players, but struggle defensively are still considered star players.

Why isn't the reverse true?

Because offense is more important; plain and simple.

Marcus can be a great defender and yet have a minimal impact on any given game, especially when facing a mediocre offensive player.  A great offensive player, on the other hand can have an impact on every play of every game when they're on the floor (even if they don't score).

This is untrue. When you run the numbers, team defense is equally important to team success as team offense. What is true is that the best defensive guard in the league doesn't make as big an impact as the best offensive guard. That's because on offense, you can give the ball to Curry or whoever on every possession. But conversely, it also means that you can minimize the impact of Smart's bad offense by giving the ball to someone else.

Not sure how to explain it but there is a difference between team defense and individual defense, especially when talking about a guard (versus a big).  You can have a great defensive team without necessarily having all great defensive players.  Team defense is more scheme and commitment.  But you still need to score of course.

Good offensive teams are more about having good offensive players.  That's why individual offense rules.

[CoachBo]

I'm fine with whatever, as long as the role is tailored to his abilities rather than potential expectations.

Still my gripe as well.  I think he has shown the best feel for passing and playmaking of anything and instead I feel like in part he is jacking up threes because he's being asked to be a SG.  I hope he gets more of a chance to run the pick and roll and improves in that area most this next year.  I have been encouraged by him late last year.

I hope we lose Turner and he gets a chance to play PG more.  I think we can play IT more and use him off ball to good success as well, hopefully something that happens more this next season.

I don't agree. I think he's been given the chance to assume control of the second unit on multiple occasions, and he's shown questionable decision making and played out of control every time -- so we invariably had to revert back to Turner.

Keep his involvement in the offense to a minimum, find a go-to offensive move that works. I feel the latter would be more of a challenge.

TP. There's zero question that Smart's decision-making with the basketball has been consistent - consistently below average. The above is an accurate summation of what result that has produced - more time for Evan Turner.

The conflation of his obviously limited - but you'd hope still evolving since we burned a lottery pick on him - skill set here is amusing, to say the leasts.

[loco_91]

What's missing from this discussion of Smart is that his efficiency isn't as bad as it looks.

Here's the ugly stats (career):

FG%: .357
3p%: .296

These are dreadful numbers. For comparison, Evan Turner's career numbers (Turner is not a very efficient player himself):

FG% .432
3p%: .305

However, these numbers badly overstate the difference in these players' efficiency.

Smart career TS%: .476
Turner career TS%: .489

This difference is due to (1) free throws:

Smart FTr .291, FT% .720
Turner FTr .218, FT% .777

And most importantly to 3 point attempts:

Smart 3pr .510, 3p% .296
Turner 3pr .130, 3p% .305.

Even though Smart shoots a way lower percentage from the field than Turner does, nonetheless he ends up with similar efficiency as Turner because

(1) a 30% 3 is just as good as a 45% 2 (Turner 2p%: .451), and
(2) the most efficient type of possession for both players is free throws, and Smart excels at drawing fouls.

All in all, Smart's efficiency is bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. He needs to improve, but as fans we shouldn't be wringing our hands and proclaiming him a bust.

[hwangjini_1]

What's missing from this discussion of Smart is that his efficiency isn't as bad as it looks.

Here's the ugly stats (career):

FG%: .357
3p%: .296

These are dreadful numbers. For comparison, Evan Turner's career numbers (Turner is not a very efficient player himself):

FG% .432
3p%: .305

However, these numbers badly overstate the difference in these players' efficiency.

Smart career TS%: .476
Turner career TS%: .489

This difference is due to (1) free throws:

Smart FTr .291, FT% .720
Turner FTr .218, FT% .777

And most importantly to 3 point attempts:

Smart 3pr .510, 3p% .296
Turner 3pr .130, 3p% .305.

Even though Smart shoots a way lower percentage from the field than Turner does, nonetheless he ends up with similar efficiency as Turner because

(1) a 30% 3 is just as good as a 45% 2 (Turner 2p%: .451), and
(2) the most efficient type of possession for both players is free throws, and Smart excels at drawing fouls.

All in all, Smart's efficiency is bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. He needs to improve, but as fans we shouldn't be wringing our hands and proclaiming him a bust.

good post with good info. i learned a lot about the TS% stat. i can see its value and flaw better now. a tp to you sir.

[BlackCeltic]

We can expect to see gains only if Smart starts at SG. Bradley should be moved or brought off the bench as a spark plug.