Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?

[Boris Badenov]

Especially if he continues to spend most of his time off the ball, I'm having a hard time letting myself expect a lot more than what we have already seen.

My instinct was to say the same thing,

But think about these two things:
1. He's improved FT% on a great trajectory;
2. FT% is viewed (for reasons I haven't fully looked into) as a better predictor of pro shooting than other percentages.

A glass-half-full view would say he's got a better chance to improve his shooting - which we all should agree is the critical thing - than his numbers last year would indicate.

(To be honest I think the glass is like, 20% full. But full is better than empty.)

[SCeltic34]

Especially if he continues to spend most of his time off the ball, I'm having a hard time letting myself expect a lot more than what we have already seen.

My instinct was to say the same thing,

But think about these two things:
1. He's improved FT% on a great trajectory;
2. FT% is viewed (for reasons I haven't fully looked into) as a better predictor of pro shooting than other percentages.

A glass-half-full view would say he's got a better chance to improve his shooting - which we all should agree is the critical thing - than his numbers last year would indicate.

(To be honest I think the glass is like, 20% full. But full is better than empty.)

Yeah I'm very encouraged by his improved FT%.

One of his biggest issues is shot selection.  Too many 3's, and too many shots where he's not comfortably spotted up and in rhythm.  I think his efficiency would improve markedly if he just found his shots in the flow of the offense rather than forcing the issue as he often does.

[GetLucky]

I expect increased efficiency and still around 10 points per game with a big increase in assists due to being the primary ball handler in the second unit.

I went to a Celtics game last year and was really surprised/impressed: Smart is a really good point guard. He looks up the floor, pushes the ball with the dribble or the pass, and can pass really well. In addition, he has some nuanced hesitations that don't show up on TV that make defenders really look lost defending the pick and roll.

I expect Smart to thrive as a bench PG/SG in the right lineup, at the very least. Hopefully he finds a "sweet spot" (i.e. Turner's midrange pull up or Tony Parker's floater) that he can have as a go-to move. Any increase in 3-point shooting is extra that helps his ability to be in the "closing 5" lineup with IT. Hopefully by leading the second unit he can look for "his shot" rather than trying to force a spot-up opportunity because he feels like it is his only opportunity to score.

I'd say about 30 mpg with 13/4/6/2 (points/rebounds/assists/steals) per game with around a 44%/30%/80% clip is what I'd expect for Smart to continue an upward trajectory. I could see him not hitting that and plateauing as a role-player, but I could also see him busting through expectations with numbers only slightly better than that while showing through intangibles that he is an up-and-coming star.

[BDeCosta26]

I guess it depends on what you call a "Leap".

I expect Marcus to make a Crowder in 2016 like leap. Where he goes from a defensive dynamo with limited offense to a defensive dynamo with an ever-expanding offensive game. Assuming we don't re-sign Turner and Smart/Rozier carry the back-up ball handling duties, Id like to think we'll see something along the line of 14/5/4 from Smart off the bench this year. I expect him to continue to improve his ability to drive and draw fouls, something he did very well in college and really started doing better at here last season. I also expect his court vision to continue to progress. He's showed very good court vision in his 1st two years here, and you've seen a noticeable improvement of late. There are periods of games where Marcus is the best player on the floor. all he needs to do is put it together consistently and were in business. Having him play on-ball more often can only help that, as he's not as effective playing off-ball.

The shooting is the key though. He had a rough year shooting the ball. But I tend to think the way some people view this is overblown. His stroke is certainly not broken, and we've seen long stretches where Smart is an above average shooter, he just has to improve his shot selection and put the work he's put in come out. Heck, Evan Turner would never be able to put together some of the stretches Marcus has because he's a truly poor outside shooter. I know he'll continue to work like a madman, his personality wouldn't accept it any other way. This is a guy who shot 34% from 3 on a LOT of attempts just last year.

I think it's a mistake when people try to judge him by saying things like "Smart's not a PG". The whole PG, SG thing is an obsolete conversation. Our team isn't looking for a "natural PG", were looking for guys who can play both on and off the ball. Just because Smart isn't Chris Paul doesn't mean he can't be a great player the way it did 20 years ago. A silly argument to have, TBH.

In short, I expect Marcus to continue to improve, and given a new role on the team (Primary back up ball-handler) I think he'll really start growing into the player he'll become starting next year. That player is a combo guard who can play on/off the ball, give you 18ish points a game, and be in the mix for the All-Defensive team. If not a DPOY candidate.

[Eja117]

A leap for Marcus Smart.....87% from the line. 33% from the three point line. 43% fg percentage. A solid assist to TO ratio around 1.7. No ejections. Less than 5 games missed for injury.

[The Oracle]

A leap for Marcus Smart.....87% from the line. 33% from the three point line. 43% fg percentage. A solid assist to TO ratio around 1.7. No ejections. Less than 5 games missed for injury.

Yes that would be a leap for marcus as he would then be an elite free throw shooter, among the elite guards for 2 point FG%, have a solid 3 ball and be sissy that doesn't get emotional or take chances playing hard and getting hurt.

[CFAN38]

Statistically his progress will have a lot to do with his role. If Turner isn't retained I expect smarts minutes to increase above 30mpg and he and Rozier will be given more primary ball handler duties. In that role I predict a playoff like 32mjn 12pt 4.5rb 4ast per game season.

[Eja117]

A leap for Marcus Smart.....87% from the line. 33% from the three point line. 43% fg percentage. A solid assist to TO ratio around 1.7. No ejections. Less than 5 games missed for injury.

Yes that would be a leap for marcus as he would then be an elite free throw shooter, among the elite guards for 2 point FG%, have a solid 3 ball and be sissy that doesn't get emotional or take chances playing hard and getting hurt.

Wait. You mean he'd be a good to average shooter and a not out of control moron on the court? Yes. That would be a leap. For sure.

[Eja117]

Statistically his progress will have a lot to do with his role. If Turner isn't retained I expect smarts minutes to increase above 30mpg and he and Rozier will be given more primary ball handler duties. In that role I predict a playoff like 32mjn 12pt 4.5rb 4ast per game season.

That is absolutely pathetic for the 6th overall pick, but I suppose it's what we have come to expect from him. Oh yeah. And he plays great defense. Whoop...de....doooooooooo.

[adam.jones614]

Statistically his progress will have a lot to do with his role. If Turner isn't retained I expect smarts minutes to increase above 30mpg and he and Rozier will be given more primary ball handler duties. In that role I predict a playoff like 32mjn 12pt 4.5rb 4ast per game season.

That is absolutely pathetic for the 6th overall pick, but I suppose it's what we have come to expect from him. Oh yeah. And he plays great defense. Whoop...de....doooooooooo.

12pt 4.5rb 4ast per game with elite defense would put him as a top 3 player in his class and a well above average nba starter

[Beat LA]

The biggest leap Smart has ever made was on that egregious flop in the playoffs that earned him a nomination on Shaqtin' a Fool, lol -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnjCWcrtH_M

I remember when we got him and so many people were saying how great he was and I got caught up in it all without doing what I should have done - watching at least a couple of his games.  I just looked up some of the things I said about him at the time and they're so hilariously wrong, like how, in terms of competitiveness, he reminded me of Westbrook except that he can and will pass.  Whoops .

What always struck me the most about him, though, even in those highlight clips, was how there was nothing he did that ever wowed me.  Since then I have gone back and watched 3-4 of his games, including his worst and two of his best performances, and I must tell you that I have absolutely no idea why anyone wanted him, and the worst part is that he has arguably somehow regressed from his rookie year to last season.  To date, the best way to sum up Smart's career is by invoking the words used by Austin Ainge in describing his first workout. "Wow, that was bad."    The fact that he has somehow declined on offense is not only disturbing, but is probably best illustrated by something that eja117 once said of Acie Earl, iirc, which went something like, "Acie Earl declined in his second season, and I was like, decline?" Ahahaha .

I have no idea what Ainge saw in him nor why he drafted him.  The guy just doesn't know how to play basketball.  He's one of those guys, like Serena Williams, who looks like they should have played football.  Actually, I take that back.  Smart arguably should have a gymnast, or at the very least, a cheerleader.  Check out this back flip from his college days -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_BzSYyaWMk

9.9, 9.8, 9.9, 9.8...

In all seriousness, though, we should just trade him and Rozier and give their minutes to Jackson, but that will never happen, and he'll spend the year in the d league , which is a real shame, because he not only actually knows how to play basketball, but he's arguably the best point guard on our team.  Sigh.

[Celtics18]

Unfortunately, the numbers simply cannot adequately reflect the kind of positive impact Marcus Smart has had on the Boston Celtics in his two years.  We all know that his defense and his toughness make him invaluable.

Hopefully, he can improve his offensive game to add to all the things he already does at an elite level.

[Evantime34]

Not sure about a leap but you will see these improvements
1.Smart will shoot at around 34% from 3. Essentially average the numbers from his rookie year with last year's playoff numbers.
2. Smart will get his attempts at the rim up to around 35% of his attempts (his numbers in the playoffs)
3. Smart will get his free throw attempts per game up to around 4 a game.

I expect these increases in efficiency to get Smart to around 12-14 points per game. To go along with those scoring numbers I expect him to push his rebounding numbers to around 5 (we will be playing more small ball next year) and get his assist numbers up to 4, since he should be doing more ball handling.

So if you considering 13/5/4 a leap then yes I think he will make a leap.

[BDeCosta26]

Statistically his progress will have a lot to do with his role. If Turner isn't retained I expect smarts minutes to increase above 30mpg and he and Rozier will be given more primary ball handler duties. In that role I predict a playoff like 32mjn 12pt 4.5rb 4ast per game season.

That is absolutely pathetic for the 6th overall pick, but I suppose it's what we have come to expect from him. Oh yeah. And he plays great defense. Whoop...de....doooooooooo.

Oh yeah, he's completely dominant in a whole half of the game. Whoop de doooo?

Smart had been a positive contributor for us since the moment he stepped on in Celtic green. He'll continue doing that no matter what.

I know defense isn't sexy, but you can't brush it off. If Smart becomes A decent player on offense (certainly possible, maybe even likely), he'll be a HUGE asset. Kid has DPOY potential.

Not exactly something to sneeze at.

[GC003332]

Smart has seemingly regressed every half season of his NBA career.

Year 1 pre-allstar:  .368/.350/.667
Year 1 post-allstar:  .366/.318/.627
Year 2 pre-allstar:  .363/.287/.753
year 2 post-allstar:  .327/.204/.812

I mean, that's almost impressive in how uncanny it is, right?  His field goal percentage and three point percentages have dropped every half season.  Guys are supposed to improve the more they play on this level.   That's almost amazing.  At this pace, he'll be shooting under 30% next season with under 20% from three.  At least his free throw percentage is rising.

But in following the NBA for a while, it seems that young guys pretty typically make a leap in year 3.   We've seen some sporadic signs from Marcus.   Parts of his game have definitely improved.  He remains an excellent defensive role player.   

His numbers in 6 playoff games weren't terrible:   12 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 steals with .367/.344/.810 shooting. 

Anyone who watched those games would tell you that Smart made up for his ghastly shooting ability with the clutch gene.  Pretty amazing that despite his offensive limitations, he seemed to come through late in games right when we needed him to come through.  Maybe it's a focus issue?  He had his best performance in game 4 when he put up 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals with 47%/38%/100% shooting.

Could this be the year he figures things out and the shooting finally improves?  This could be a huge season for Marcus.  If he doesn't figure it out this year, we can basically kiss the Marcus Smart dream goodbye.  His trade value will plummet and there will be little hope that he'll develop beyond defensive role player. 

So who is expecting a leap?

Do you have any predictions for his stats in 2016/17  using your vast knowledge of the NBA?