Who is expecting a leap from Marcus Smart in year 3?

[LarBrd33]

Smart has seemingly regressed every half season of his NBA career.

Year 1 pre-allstar:  .368/.350/.667
Year 1 post-allstar:  .366/.318/.627
Year 2 pre-allstar:  .363/.287/.753
year 2 post-allstar:  .327/.204/.812

I mean, that's almost impressive in how uncanny it is, right?  His field goal percentage and three point percentages have dropped every half season.  Guys are supposed to improve the more they play on this level.   That's almost amazing.  At this pace, he'll be shooting under 30% next season with under 20% from three.  At least his free throw percentage is rising.

But in following the NBA for a while, it seems that young guys pretty typically make a leap in year 3.   We've seen some sporadic signs from Marcus.   Parts of his game have definitely improved.  He remains an excellent defensive role player.   

His numbers in 6 playoff games weren't terrible:   12 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 steals with .367/.344/.810 shooting. 

Anyone who watched those games would tell you that Smart made up for his ghastly shooting ability with the clutch gene.  Pretty amazing that despite his offensive limitations, he seemed to come through late in games right when we needed him to come through.  Maybe it's a focus issue?  He had his best performance in game 4 when he put up 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals with 47%/38%/100% shooting.

Could this be the year he figures things out and the shooting finally improves?  This could be a huge season for Marcus.  If he doesn't figure it out this year, we can basically kiss the Marcus Smart dream goodbye.  His trade value will plummet and there will be little hope that he'll develop beyond defensive role player. 

So who is expecting a leap? 

[Sketch5]

Smart has seemingly regressed every half season of his NBA career.

Year 1 pre-allstar:  .368/.350/.667
Year 1 post-allstar:  .366/.318/.627
Year 2 pre-allstar:  .363/.287/.753
year 2 post-allstar:  .327/.204/.812

I mean, that's almost impressive in how uncanny it is, right?  His field goal percentage and three point percentages have dropped every half season.  Guys are supposed to improve the more they play on this level.   That's almost amazing.  At this pace, he'll be shooting under 30% next season with under 20% from three.  At least his free throw percentage is rising.

But in following the NBA for a while, it seems that young guys pretty typically make a leap in year 3.   We've seen some sporadic signs from Marcus.   Parts of his game have definitely improved.  He remains an excellent defensive role player.   

His numbers in 6 playoff games weren't terrible:   12 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 steals with .367/.344/.810 shooting. 

Anyone who watched those games would tell you that Smart made up for his ghastly shooting ability with the clutch gene.  Pretty amazing that despite his offensive limitations, he seemed to come through late in games right when we needed him to come through.  He had his best performance in game 4 when he put up 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals with 47%/38%/100% shooting.

Could this be the year he figures things out and the shooting finally improves?  This could be a huge season for Marcus.  If he doesn't figure it out this year, we can basically kiss the Marcus Smart dream goodbye.  His trade value will plummet and there will be little hope that he'll develop beyond defensive role player. 

So who is expecting a leap?

Even if he only becomes a solid bench player, this is why you keep him on the team. I've notice this too. He seems to lock in when it's needed. Now if he can just lock in for an other 15 or 20 mins. 

I kinda wish he plays summer league. He missed out on a lot last summer. Even though his percentages weren't amazing, I liked how he played.

[RedClaw33]

All of his scoring seems to come from accidental office...last second shots, unplanned 3's with hands in his face.  Shot selection has always been a knock on him.  I've wondered if he lost a few pounds if it would improve his step a little ( i think his % of body fat is a little higher than most would think), but he's used defensively in so many ways I know the extra pounds helps. 

I think we can only hope that Crowder, Smart and Bradley continue to grow.  Sullinger has clearly regressed and has the worst attitude on the team (judging from interviews).  Olynyk can't stay healthy and we can't expect IT to be much better than 20 and 6 with 20+ PER.

[NHCelticsFan]

Marcus has had some injuries slow his progression a bit.  That ankle Injury really did a number, and those fingers he was lucky not to break.  I imagine the game has slowed down a bit for him and he is healthy right now so I could see some improvement in terms of efficiency.

Marcus also drove to the basket a lot more in his second year.  I think he could take a nice step this year now that our back court is a little more defined.  By that I mean IT and AB are pretty much looked in as starters with Marcus the first one of the bench.

One area I think he has improved is defense.  I was at the Hawks playoff game when Milsap dominated us, until Marcus was put on him.  I think he has established himself as a tough defender and improved in terms of defensive versatility.

[chambers]

We should hope so.
He certainly started aggressively driving more and trying to get to the line and we should at least see his TS% improve if he can continue an upward trend there.

But yeah, we really need him to shoot at 33% from 3 and 43%+ from the field this season- for our on court sake and for his value as a trade asset.

[jpotter33]

Honestly, this should be expected due to the injuries he's dealt with and being played out of his natural position/role.

So it will all depend upon how he's utilized next year, which obviously depends upon this summer goes. If it goes well, we don't resign Turner, and Smart ultimately becomes the primary ball-handler/scorer/guard for the bench, then, yes, I expect a sizable leap from him, even if it's just skills-wise and with the eye test rather than major leaps statistically. On the other hand, if we keep playing him as a spot-up shooter, then I expect much of the same - lackluster offense and elite defense.

We honestly should be putting a lot of time and energy into developing Marcus, because it could ultimately work out really well for us contractually. Think about it - IT becomes a free agent the same summer that Smart is a restricted free agent. If we properly develop him in a Livingston/Golden State type role off the bench, then we can ultimately pay Smart what he'll demand as a free agent for him to take over the point guard role full-time that summer.

The prevailing opinion on here is that we're not going to want to pay IT the major upgrade in salary that he's going to demand that summer, especially due to his size and the history of smaller guards like that not lasting too long in prime condition. Thus, if we ultimately develop Smart into our starting point guard and tell IT that we'd love him back that summer, only in the sixth man role, then he can either sign a big contract elsewhere or take the hometown discount for the only team in the league that has believed in him and allowed him to shine.

[Who]

Gradual improvement rather than a big leap.

Smart has gone from 7.8ppg to 9.1ppg. I think 10-12ppg would be a good step for him.
I'd love to see his 3PT% get back up to 33%.

I compare Smart to Artest because of their similar body types. The strength, the lateral quickness but the lack of explosiveness. Artest was slow to grow his offensive game at first in the NBA too so I am using that to direct my expectations. So slow and steady improvement rather than a big leap. Years 4 and 5, I hope to see a leap.

[dreamgreen]

We all better hope a lot! That would be a major help to us if he becomes a solid offensive player as someone else said he has the balls to take big shots and he can hit them, so there is hope!

[max215]

If he can just shoot better, I'll be happy.

[Clench123]

He has improved every year, so I expect him to take it up another notch this coming season.

[CelticsJG]

He is not going to be a primary pg, his handling to suspect. I hope Smart shred a few pounds and gets a shooting coach.

[chiken Green]

The kid really works on his game.. I see him continuing to improve..  He is not close to his ceiling yet in my opinion.

[PhoSita]

Especially if he continues to spend most of his time off the ball, I'm having a hard time letting myself expect a lot more than what we have already seen.

My hope is he stays healthier and can give the Celts around the 10 pts 4 rebounds 3 assists 1.5 steals he's been putting up when given the minutes, but with closer to 40/33/70 shooting for the season.

[RJ87]

Honestly, this should be expected due to the injuries he's dealt with and being played out of his natural position/role.

I don't know if he has a natural NBA position, and I think that's been an issue since he was drafted. I just don't think he's a PG especially.

Ultimately, I think his ceiling and goal should be an Andre Iguodala type of player. Elite level defense and can handle the ball some when necessary.

[PhoSita]

Honestly, this should be expected due to the injuries he's dealt with and being played out of his natural position/role.

I don't know if he has a natural NBA position, and I think that's been an issue since he was drafted. I just don't think he's a PG especially.

Ultimately, I think his ceiling and goal should be an Andre Iguodala type of player. Elite level defense and can handle the ball some when necessary.

Ainge doesn't draft players with a natural position.