Author Topic: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?  (Read 29262 times)

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Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #75 on: September 05, 2016, 04:39:04 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I think in a redraft he would go second. He has looked better than Ingram. Probably goes 4th if we take Dunn.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #76 on: September 05, 2016, 04:41:50 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Are you literally just talking to yourself at this point?
Have I ever done anything other than that here?

Bottom line... just to definitively answer OP's question... had Boston not taken Brown, he would have gone 9th to Toronto.

Lol Lar you made me laugh on that one.
#JKJB

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #77 on: September 05, 2016, 05:12:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Consensus among draft sites =/= Consensus among NBA team talent evaluators


Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #78 on: September 05, 2016, 05:13:49 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Consensus among draft sites =/= Consensus among NBA team talent evaluators

That's another tp

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #79 on: September 05, 2016, 05:37:15 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?
It's my understanding that the Celtics took Brown, because of fit.   There might have been guys they liked a little more, but wouldn't have made much sense for this roster.

Jaylen wasn't even the consensus #3 pick on Boston's board.  There were mutliple draft-night scenarios in which the Celtics would not have taken Brown 3rd.

To answer OP's question, had Brown not been selected by the Celtics at #3, he'd end up going to Toronto at #9.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 05:45:20 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #80 on: September 05, 2016, 05:52:48 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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Consensus among draft sites =/= Consensus among NBA team talent evaluators


Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?


from the thread "Jaylen Brown is the guy at 3":
He can play? Based on what?
Jaylen Brown reminds me of Tyreke Evans.

Minus the PG skills but similar build and athleticism. Scorers mindset. Ball-handling. Questionable jump-shot and shot-selection. Defensive talent. Quality rebounder. Capable passer.

What exactly is Tyreke Evans minus the point guard skills?

From the thread "Jaylen Brown our version of Lebron":

Maybe in the sense of a strong, bullish athlete with a poor jumpshot and a tendency to vacillate between single minded drives and passive off ball play.

From the thread "Grizzly Bear Blues Mock Draft Has Us Trading Up To #11 For Jaylen Brown":
I wouldn't be surprised if Jaylen falls, but all the way to 11 seems unlikely.

From the thread "Does anyone else think the #3 for okafor is completely unrealistic?":
I guess it depends on what this draft looks like closer to draft night.   SOme people think it's good.  Some people seem to think it's garbage. 

I brought it up in another thread... some people have Jaylen Brown going 3rd and I've heard him called a poor man's Justice Winslow.  Winslow went 10th last year.  Does that mean the 3rd best player in this draft would have gone 11th last year?

If that's the case, I have no idea why Philly's best offer for a 20 year old big man rookie who has the potential to dominate inside... would be a player who would have been drafted 11th last year. 

Okafor might actually end up better than anyone in this entire draft. 

On the flip side, there's those that think a handful of months as a sitting duck in Philly has irreparably destroyed Okafor's trade value.  There's those who think Philly is desperate to move him and have no leverage.  There's those who think Okafor's stats were empty (as opposed to a prospect who put up worse stats on the College level) and that he has peaked at the age of 20.   There's those who think he's a career loser despite being a year removed from winning a National Championship.  There's those who think this team has some real gems outside of the top two picks and that PHilly might be anxious to grab one of the guards like Buddy Hield. 

So who knows... it's possible.

What we do know (widely accepted outside of this forum) is that Ainge tried trading a package built around the pick for Okafor at the deadline and that according to Ainge it was close, but Philly backed out.  My guess is, they backed out because of uncertainty surrounding where the pick would land.  It could have fallen much further than 3rd.  So perhaps now that they see it's locked in at 3rd, they'll be ready to make an actual move.  On the other hand, they probably had interest in the pick because of it's potential to end up in the top 2... so now that it's not top 2, they might not have any interest at all.   They could look to trade Okafor for a more established player.   Despite the idea that the league is "going small", big men still have a place in this league.  Star big men prospects are always going to be super valuable.  And this league is littered with guards.   They could just offer him up to the Suns for Bledsoe or Knight, for instance.  Why settle on an unknown prospect?

This is some stretched logic. Kind of reminds me of team a beat team b so they can also beat team c type stuff. Most people don't think Brown will go third, and if someone does have him going third they certainly think he is better than poor man's justice winslow. I think right now we are just all kind of guessing cause there is a decent amount of mystery around some of the top prospects. If Philly were enamored with Murray or Dunn after seeing them workout perhaps they would trade Okafor for a number 3 picks and a small additional piece (late first). I think Okafor showed enough in his rookie year that he is probably worth the number 3 pick. I wouldn't hate it if we did a trade like this.


People need to stop pretending that Brown was not considered a reach at the time of the draft. The very same people that are crucifying LarBrd for suggesting Brown was not the clear-cut #3 best player in the draft also acknowledged the fact that Brown was a flawed player with the potential to drop beyond 3.

EDIT: This doesn't refer to this thread specifically; it's just been a common theme for the past few days that is getting kind of silly. I get that LarBrd has some crazy notions that he supports with sometimes less-than-convinvcing evidence, but the idea that Brown was not a widely-renowned ("sexy") pick at the time of selection is not one of them. The feud over minutia has made reading the forum a lot less enjoyable lately.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #81 on: September 05, 2016, 06:13:01 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I think in a redraft he would go second. He has looked better than Ingram. Probably goes 4th if we take Dunn.
NBA.com has him 7th in their rookie ladder so far.   They said he was the 9th best rookie in Summer league:

Quote
9. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics - The big finish of 20 points and 10 rebounds, 25 points and nine rebounds, and 21 points and seven rebounds moved him to 16 points and 6.2, respectively, an encouraging outcome even with the cringing 30.7 percent from the field. The No. 3 pick also had at least two steals or two blocks in five of six appearances. He also got to the line 11 times or more in three of the six, the sign of an aggressive player, all the more noteworthy because some of that going hard to the basket came after he sat a portion of the Salt Lake City schedule with a knee injury that might have prompted other newcomers to become cautious.

Doesn't really matter, because everyone kind of acknowledges that Jaylen is a raw prospect with minimal current NBA skill, but could conceivably be a great player long-term after a few years of development.  Had he not been snatched up at #3, it looks like he would have gone somewhere in the 7-9 range.  Toronto at #9 makes sense.

« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 06:19:23 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #82 on: September 05, 2016, 06:22:22 PM »

Online Moranis

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I think in a redraft he would go second. He has looked better than Ingram. Probably goes 4th if we take Dunn.
If 3 was Dunn, Phoenix is taking Bender.  That was their guy.  Now if 3 was Bender, very good change Phoenix takes Brown, though Chriss was also possible.  That said, if Boston traded the pick to Philly it was so Philly could take Dunn, which would have kept Bender at 4 and Brown at the earliest 5 (though I don't think Minnesota takes him).
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #83 on: September 05, 2016, 06:28:32 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I think in a redraft he would go second. He has looked better than Ingram. Probably goes 4th if we take Dunn.
If 3 was Dunn, Phoenix is taking Bender.  That was their guy.  Now if 3 was Bender, very good change Phoenix takes Brown, though Chriss was also possible.  That said, if Boston traded the pick to Philly it was so Philly could take Dunn, which would have kept Bender at 4 and Brown at the earliest 5 (though I don't think Minnesota takes him).
Minny would have gone after one of the shooters (Murray/Hield) if Dunn was off the board.  Pelicans take the other shooter.  Really looks like 7th is the earliest Brown would have gone.  Denver was aiming for shooters so they probably don't take Jaylen 7th.  Kings might take Jaylen 8th, but the Kings were a major wildcard so they probably reach for some head-scratcher if they keep the pick in that alt-universe.   Raptors would probably take Jaylen as a value selection at #9.

Boston could potentially trade up and try to select Jaylen at #8 since the Kings were fielding offers.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 06:39:16 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #84 on: September 05, 2016, 06:35:28 PM »

Online Moranis

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Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?
Everyone understands that, but they are much more connected then you and I, especially certain guys like Ford, Woj, etc. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #85 on: September 05, 2016, 06:39:43 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Consensus among draft sites =/= Consensus among NBA team talent evaluators


Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?
Everyone understands that, but they are much more connected then you and I, especially certain guys like Ford, Woj, etc.


Maybe Woj, but he's certainly not infallible, and he's smart enough not to post much drafts that are meaningless.


Let's not even get started with Ford and his retroactive draft board editing.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #86 on: September 05, 2016, 06:43:45 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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So most people think 2nd. I think 5th. Look guys I get a lot of people are low on him, but I think he is going to be quite good. May even turn into a starter

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #87 on: September 05, 2016, 06:47:19 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Consensus among draft sites =/= Consensus among NBA team talent evaluators


Or do we need to go through every instance in this draft where the draftnik sites got it very wrong?

Skal, just to give one example, was listed as a lottery pick all the way up to the day of the draft.  Deyonta Davis was regularly slotted in the 10-15 range.

Where'd they get selected?
Everyone understands that, but they are much more connected then you and I, especially certain guys like Ford, Woj, etc.


Maybe Woj, but he's certainly not infallible, and he's smart enough not to post much drafts that are meaningless.


Let's not even get started with Ford and his retroactive draft board editing.
My man Chad Ford had nothing to do with that.

Quote
A day after the allegations surfaced, Ford denied any involvement in the edits and ESPN said that it believed Ford based on his past professionalism. In the same statement ESPN noted that it was unclear if the person responsible for the edits would ever be ascertained.

Also, his draft board is different from his annual draft tier article.  While his draft board is written by a mere mortal, it's well known that Ford's annual draft tiers come straight from the word of god himself.  If Ford says the guys in the 3-8 range were all "Tier 3 prospects" comparable with one another, we must take that as fact.  That represents exactly how scouts/GMs felt about those prospects prior to the NBA draft.

This backed up by numerous other outlets, such as CBS Sports, who portrayed the draft as follows:

Quote
So, to me, this draft has three tiers.

1) The Simmons/Ingram tier.

2) The Murray/Bender/Hield/Dunn/Chriss/Brown tier.

3) The everybody-else tier.

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #88 on: September 05, 2016, 06:56:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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ALso, that's for pointing out Woj.  Woj writes for the Vertical.  I looked up what the Vertical's final Mock said... Unsurprisingly, they too had Jaylen going 8th: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/version-iv--the-vertical-s-2016-nba-mock-draft-160519135.html

Here's what they said about Boston's pick (they had them taking Dunn):

Quote
The draft begins here, with as many as five players who could be candidates for this spot. The Celtics would love to trade this pick for an NBA-ready player who is a better fit on their existing roster, but that may be somewhat of a long shot based on recent history.


They had Jaylen going 8th to the Kings and had the following to say about him:

Quote
Many feel the draft drops off significantly after the eighth pick, with many different opinions on whom the next best prospect might be. That should make for a fairly easy choice for the Kings, even if Brown’s inexperience and lack of perimeter shooting don’t make him an ideal fit.

So that's like... what... 95% of articles that suggested 3-8 were interchangeable prospects and 95% of articles that had Jaylen going 7-9?

Re: If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?
« Reply #89 on: September 05, 2016, 07:28:28 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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ALso, that's for pointing out Woj.  Woj writes for the Vertical.  I looked up what the Vertical's final Mock said... Unsurprisingly, they too had Jaylen going 8th: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/version-iv--the-vertical-s-2016-nba-mock-draft-160519135.html

Here's what they said about Boston's pick (they had them taking Dunn):

Quote
The draft begins here, with as many as five players who could be candidates for this spot. The Celtics would love to trade this pick for an NBA-ready player who is a better fit on their existing roster, but that may be somewhat of a long shot based on recent history.


They had Jaylen going 8th to the Kings and had the following to say about him:

Quote
Many feel the draft drops off significantly after the eighth pick, with many different opinions on whom the next best prospect might be. That should make for a fairly easy choice for the Kings, even if Brown’s inexperience and lack of perimeter shooting don’t make him an ideal fit.

So that's like... what... 95% of articles that suggested 3-8 were interchangeable prospects and 95% of articles that had Jaylen going 7-9?
I'm thinking he was clearly in a tier by himself and was definitely number 3. That is the consensus from what I have read