So a couple years ago the Nets team that made the playoffs had the following three players other than Lopez receive the most amount of minutes:
Joe Johnson - 14.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists with 44%/46%/80% shooting in 34.9mpg
Jarret Jack - 12 points, 4.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds with 44%/27%/88% shooting in 28mpg
Deron Williams - 13 points, 6.6 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 39%/37%/83% shooting in 31.1mpg
Last year they lost Deron. Jack went down with an injury. Johnson was bought out. One of their only impact players (RHJ) missed most of the seaosn. The team was predictably terrible as a result.
Brook Lopez remains an impact player. My question is, what's the minimal amount of talent that team would need to add around Lopez for you to start getting worried again? I don't mean contender level... I mean 35-41 wins and a potential accidental playoff berth. The other thing that was different about last year was that the Eastern Conference wasn't total garbage again... two years ago, two different teams made the playoffs with losing records. That wasn't the case last year. So let's define "worst-case" scenario as Brooklyn winning enough games to push their pick outside the Top 10. Last year 34 wins would have earned the 11th pick. What would need to happen to that roster for you to think that was possible?
Outside key injuries to every other team?
(1) No injuries
(2) At least one, if not two solid true starters (not guys like Lin) added to the above roster
(3) Lots of luck
I'm still not sure that gets it done. You're right in that the Nets "made the playoffs" two years ago. But let's look closely at that.
(1) They won the 8th spot with 38 wins in a historically weak East. The East is markedly better now and 38 wins got you the 11th spot last year. The trend of the East seems to be improvement which means that a team that was barely competitive two years ago is no longer as strong as the rest of the competition. In fact, a strong argument that outside of Philly,every single team they finished in front of (NY, Indy, Detroit, Miami, Charlotte and Orlando) has easily surpassed their talent level.
(2) They got to 38 wins with an incredible amount of luck. Really, their playoff slot was remarkable. They won a tiebreaker against Indy. Their point differential was -2.9, which was far worse than Indy (#9, +.3) and Detroit (#12, -1.0). Point differential has been proven time and time again as one of the best statistics in showing relative strengths and so it's impossible to look at their run in 2014 and think it's likely that would happen again.
So it took a historically lucky season for them to make the playoffs in a historically weak division. What was a razor thin margin then is now a huge cavernous gulf. Getting back to their former talent level gets them nowhere near the playoffs now and they're nowhere near that talent level.
Now that's to make the playoffs. To push their pick outside the top 10? The same list as above, except only one solid level starter instead of two. They're a horrible team and it's going to take a miracle for them to finish outside even the bottom 5 this coming year. Frankly, it's not something that I'm going to dwell on at this point. I expect them to move Lopez before the trade deadline before he gets into the last year of his contract and just accept being horrible in order to maximize their few assets so they can try to turn it all around in two years.