Khris middleton for the 3rd?

[ssspence]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

[saltlover]

I'm surprised everyone is so against trading #3 for Middleton. I don't think we should trade the pick before we know exactly who it's going to be but Middleton is 24 years old and averaged 18-4-4 with 1.7 steals per game last year, shooting .444/.396/.888. He plays good defense and is exactly the kind of player the Celtics need (a shooting wing who can defend).

What are the odds that anyone rumored to be taken #3 will be as good of a two-way player as Middleton?

Totally agree with you Big333223!!!  Middleton is the 4th highest rated SG on ESPN's real plus/minus RPM and the 14th best defensive SG on DRPM.

I will take that, a PROVEN commodity, over an unproven #3 pick ANY day of the year!!!

Smitty77

Not to nitpick with the conclusion but RPM seems to be exceptionally flawed. According to that metric Bradley is a worse defender than James Harden and Olynyk and Sully are top Centers. Yeah...not happening.

Here's the question I want those who are in favor of this trade to answer: Middleton is already 24 and the peak for players is 24-27 years old. If Middleton does not improve one iota from his current numbers - something that could reasonably happen - is the #3 pick worth the incremental upgrade you get for him? How many more wins does he bring?

I'm undecided on this deal. I like Middleton but I think there are far greater needs for the Cs.

As I've posted numerous times, the average peak for successful NBA players is not 24.  If you look at NBA players who last 10 years in the league (something that Middleton seems well on his way to doing), the peak age is around 27 or 28.  It is very reasonable to expect that Middleton gets a bit better.

Please help me break the peak age is 24 myth.  That dataset includes a lot of NBA washouts who didn't even play in the NBA at 26.

Washouts doesn't mean the numbers were wrong. Your numbers are also faulty because you're eliminating anyone who didn't play for 10 years meaning that the players were far better than average. Your caveat of "successful" NBA players is far more limiting than other studies.

But let's say for the sake of argument that it's 26 or 27. Middleton will be 25 before next season starts. He may improve. He may not. The question stands. If that's as good as he gets, is the deal worth it?

But it should be limiting.  Khris Middleton has played four years in the NBA and is not going away any time soon.  Kris Joseph, on the other hand, was a fringe NBA player who entered and exited the league at 24.  There are many more Kris Josephs in the world than Khris Middletons, and to crowd the sample with Kris Josephs will lead for a less accurate projection.  Middleton has already proved he is not the same type of player as Joseph -- why would you want Kris Joseph's data in the sample?

Drawing as large a sample as possible is not always the best decision for projections. I picked 10 years because someone did that study a few years ago and found that when you looked at players who remained in the league for 10 years, a) 27 years old was the peak age and b) that peak age has been increasing over time (it's probably over 28 for people born in 1991), for reasons unknown (although the author guessed modern medicine may play a role, which makes sense).  Maybe players at least 5 years in the league is more appropriate for Middleton, who is entering his fifth season.  Or maybe limiting the sample to players who at least played to age 25 would make sense.  But just saying "oh, NBA players on average peak at 24" is not the best, because the median NBA player probably lasts fewer than three seasons in the league.  Even by making it to his fourth season, Middleton has exceeded the career-length of 62% of NBA players, as of the 2011 season.  In other words, 62% of the sample used to calculate an average peak of 24 is comprised of players who Middleton has already outlasted.  Using that peak age may make sense for trying to evaluate a draftee (although I would argue that it doesn't), but it certainly does not make sense for questions about Middleton.  Or Avery Bradley, for that matter.

Again, please help me get rid of the peak age is 24 myth.

[LarBrd33]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

[saltlover]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

[BigDogPitbull]

Terrible!  Not for #3.  We need a big.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Would you rather have Okafor or Middleton-?

Middleton hits Big Shots.

[LarBrd33]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

They weren't good, but they won 33 games.  Problem was they replaced their big man defense with Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They were a playoff team a year prior.  If they cure their interior defense problem, they will be a pretty decent team.  Maybe they should consider moving one of their SF's for Nerlens Noel. 

Maybe a 3-teamer with Philly makes sense.

Philly gets: #3
Boston gets:  Middleton
Bucks get:  Noel

THough, if Noel gets you Middleton, Philly should just trade Noel for Middleton. 

[BigDogPitbull]

I'd take Okafor or Noel over Middleton.  We need quality bigs and more rebounding.

[LarBrd33]

I'd take Okafor or Noel over Middleton.  We need quality bigs and more rebounding.

I'd be fine with any 3 of those guys.  The more I read about this draft, the less confident I am that the players available.

[saltlover]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

They weren't good, but they won 33 games.  Problem was they replaced their big man defense with Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They were a playoff team a year prior.  If they cure their interior defense problem, they will be a pretty decent team.  Maybe they should consider moving one of their SF's for Nerlens Noel. 

Maybe a 3-teamer with Philly makes sense.

Philly gets: #3
Boston gets:  Middleton
Bucks get:  Noel

THough, if Noel gets you Middleton, Philly should just trade Noel for Middleton.

The Bucks Offensive Rating was 24th in the NBA.  Their defense was not good either (22nd in the NBA), but it was a collective effort from both ends of the court that caused them to win only 33 games.  Again, I think Middleton is a good player, will likely get better, and is on a decent contract, one that would cost about 60% more on the free agent market this year.  But the Bucks were not a good team on either offense or defense last year, and Middleton was on the court 36 minutes a night.  He was the best player on a not-good team.  It's better than being the third-best player on a not-good team, but it likewise isn't a guarantee of stardom.

[LarBrd33]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

They weren't good, but they won 33 games.  Problem was they replaced their big man defense with Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They were a playoff team a year prior.  If they cure their interior defense problem, they will be a pretty decent team.  Maybe they should consider moving one of their SF's for Nerlens Noel. 

Maybe a 3-teamer with Philly makes sense.

Philly gets: #3
Boston gets:  Middleton
Bucks get:  Noel

THough, if Noel gets you Middleton, Philly should just trade Noel for Middleton.

The Bucks Offensive Rating was 24th in the NBA.  Their defense was not good either (22nd in the NBA), but it was a collective effort from both ends of the court that caused them to win only 33 games.  Again, I think Middleton is a good player, will likely get better, and is on a decent contract, one that would cost about 60% more on the free agent market this year.  But the Bucks were not a good team on either offense or defense last year, and Middleton was on the court 36 minutes a night.  He was the best player on a not-good team.  It's better than being the third-best player on a not-good team, but it likewise isn't a guarantee of stardom.

Well I'd be pumped to get Middleton.  He'd be the best offensive player on this team.  Homeless man's Durant.

[Ilikesports17]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

They weren't good, but they won 33 games.  Problem was they replaced their big man defense with Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They were a playoff team a year prior.  If they cure their interior defense problem, they will be a pretty decent team.  Maybe they should consider moving one of their SF's for Nerlens Noel. 

Maybe a 3-teamer with Philly makes sense.

Philly gets: #3
Boston gets:  Middleton
Bucks get:  Noel

THough, if Noel gets you Middleton, Philly should just trade Noel for Middleton.

I am operating on the premise that Philly LOVES Dunn.

Its been reported and not refuted so Im rolling with it. this is the answer to all the well why wouldnt Philly just trade for [insert Cs target here]? questions you have. Now Philly might not actually be obsessed with Dunn, but I think its a possibility now and it makes 3-teamers like this feasible.

[Smokeeye123]

Threads like these make me realize how many totally ignorant some celtics fans and NBA fans are in general.

"Player I've never/barely heard of on a team I don't know about? HE SUCKS"

Middleton is the scorer we need and has improved every year he's been in the league. It's gonna take a lot to get him though from Milwaukee. Probably #3 plus another high pick or a player.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Threads like these make me realize how many totally ignorant some celtics fans and NBA fans are in general.

"Player I've never/barely heard of on a team I don't know about? HE SUCKS"

Middleton is the scorer we need and has improved every year he's been in the league. It's gonna take a lot to get him though from Milwaukee. Probably #3 plus another high pick or a player.

Yeah, I doubt Milw would trade him for #3...unless we throw in #16 and Amir.

[celticsclay]

A bit of #NBADraft chatter: Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer. #Celtics

The discussion probably went like this:

Hammond: How about we give you Middleton for the 3?
Ainge: *crickets*

Middleton after the all-star break:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals with .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg... he's a solid defender and clearly an outstanding shooter.  He's also got legit size at 6'8, 234lbs.   He's shot 39-41% from three in each of the past 3 seasons.

Do people genuinely think we're getting a player of that caliber at #3?   MIddleton is 24 years old and already a borderline star.   According to scouts/front offices, the players available 3-7 project as starters at best.

You guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment, I think.

It's more about Middleton than the pick, it seems. Example: plenty of people seem to want to trade Okafor for 3, but not Middleton? If you see the 3rd pick as that low in quality, then those peeps don't recognize Middleton's value.

I'd be more excited about adding Middleton than Butler.   Middleton can shoot.  Butler might be more of a draw for Durant, I guess... I'm not sure I buy that narrative though.   Having watched MIddleton last year, he already was the main offensive option on a pretty solid team.  He'd fit in beautifully with what Stevens is doing.

I like Middleton myself, but I'm not sure calling Milwaukee a "solid team" is the best definition of "solid."  You may have watched too many Sixers games last year if the Bucks fit your definition.

They weren't good, but they won 33 games.  Problem was they replaced their big man defense with Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker. They were a playoff team a year prior.  If they cure their interior defense problem, they will be a pretty decent team.  Maybe they should consider moving one of their SF's for Nerlens Noel. 

Maybe a 3-teamer with Philly makes sense.

Philly gets: #3
Boston gets:  Middleton
Bucks get:  Noel

THough, if Noel gets you Middleton, Philly should just trade Noel for Middleton.

The Bucks Offensive Rating was 24th in the NBA.  Their defense was not good either (22nd in the NBA), but it was a collective effort from both ends of the court that caused them to win only 33 games.  Again, I think Middleton is a good player, will likely get better, and is on a decent contract, one that would cost about 60% more on the free agent market this year.  But the Bucks were not a good team on either offense or defense last year, and Middleton was on the court 36 minutes a night.  He was the best player on a not-good team.  It's better than being the third-best player on a not-good team, but it likewise isn't a guarantee of stardom.

Well I'd be pumped to get Middleton.  He'd be the best offensive player on this team.  Homeless man's Durant.

Drunk man's rickey davis