Why should Durant leave OKC?

[LarBrd33]

A lot of people say staying in OKC is the obvious choice.  I disagree.

Bill Simmons points out that Nike might be actively pushing him to leave OKC:  https://theringer.com/kevin-durant-thunder-conundrum-4b1689d4002c#.paeuqui6g

There had been rumors that there were incentives built into his contract that would pay him more if he joined a larger market.  Regardless, simply joining a new team would provide a publicity boost that Nike may be craving from Durant.  His sales have stagnated.  No better way to get them back up than a new narrative.  The common belief is that he'd make more money staying in OKC, but when you factor in his endorsement money, that doesn't seem to be true.

Why else should Durant bail?

I gave it some thought rattled off some additional (some a bit weak) reasons in an article I wrote for CLNS Radio:  http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13902-5-reasons-kevin-durant-needs-to-leave-the-oklahoma-city-thunder

A few of the reasons I mentioned:

- It's questionable whether that franchise knows how to build a winner.  There's been several pretty significant missteps - most notably trading away a young All-NBA player to save cash.

- The team has a losing record without Durant and failed to make the playoffs a season ago without him.  Sans Durant, that supporting cast isn't as great as the media is making it out to be.  There are several teams that arguably give him a better opportunity to win.

- If it's true that he values stability, signing a 1 year contract (remember he's a year removed from having a bone graft in his foot) to "run it back" with Westbrook when Westbrook might be on the verge of bailing for the Lakers - doesn't sound like a stable situation.

What's some additional reasons you can think of?

[PhoSita]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.


Aside from that, the only point I can see on this is that Westbrook might bail next summer to have his own show somewhere else (LA or NY probably).  Maybe Durant knows that's likely to happen, and so he decides to leave this summer so he can start building experience and chemistry with a different team, probably in the East.

[jpotter33]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already has.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.

But talent without fit also doesn't mean much, as OKC itself and the Cavs have proved this postseason. One of the best arguments for him leaving is that he's not a good fit with Westbrrook, so I think there are several more reasons than just being in the East as you argue.

Sure, they might out-talent many teams on most nights, but a poor fit together is exposed when you play truly elite teams. Golden State is highlighting the poor fit in Cleveland right now, despite the immense talent that they have.

[LarBrd33]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.


Aside from that, the only point I can see on this is that Westbrook might bail next summer to have his own show somewhere else (LA or NY probably).  Maybe Durant knows that's likely to happen, and so he decides to leave this summer so he can start building experience and chemistry with a different team, probably in the East.

I still feel like Westbrook is a bit overrated... and he's the main reason people say Durant can't find a better supporting cast.   Honestly, I'm not sure Westbrook's talents compliment Durant as well as some people think.   They never really seemed like a great fit together.

Someone mentioned in another thread, the Thunder without Durant would compare well with the Blazers.  The idea is that Westbrook is similar to Damian Lillard.   Lillard is a more efficient scorer, though... and the Thunder don't have a CJ McCollum lighting it up at the SG position.   Actually, the Blazers might be one of several teams that would provide a better supporting cast than Durant has right now in Oklahoma City. 

[jpotter33]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.


Aside from that, the only point I can see on this is that Westbrook might bail next summer to have his own show somewhere else (LA or NY probably).  Maybe Durant knows that's likely to happen, and so he decides to leave this summer so he can start building experience and chemistry with a different team, probably in the East.

I still feel like Westbrook is overrated.  As someone mentioned in another thread, the Thunder without Durant would compare well with the Blazers.  The idea is that Westbrook is similar to Damian Lillard.   Lillard is a more efficient scorer, though... and the Thunder don't have a CJ McCollum lighting it up at the SG position.   Actually, the Blazers might be one of several teams that would provide a better supporting cast than Durant has right now in Oklahoma City.

I don't buy the Portland argument at all for being a good fit. He needs more defensive-minded, non-ball-dominant players around him to be optimized, which is exactly the opposite of Portland's backcourt. I'm not sure there's enough shots there for Durant between Lillard and McCollum.

[Ilikesports17]

I think you have a pretty big anti-OKC bias.

[Fafnir]

Only reason to leave is if he decides another organization offers him a better environment to win a championship.

[PhoSita]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.


Aside from that, the only point I can see on this is that Westbrook might bail next summer to have his own show somewhere else (LA or NY probably).  Maybe Durant knows that's likely to happen, and so he decides to leave this summer so he can start building experience and chemistry with a different team, probably in the East.

I still feel like Westbrook is a bit overrated... and he's the main reason people say Durant can't find a better supporting cast.   Honestly, I'm not sure Westbrook's talents compliment Durant as well as some people think.   They never really seemed like a great fit together.

Someone mentioned in another thread, the Thunder without Durant would compare well with the Blazers.  The idea is that Westbrook is similar to Damian Lillard.   Lillard is a more efficient scorer, though... and the Thunder don't have a CJ McCollum lighting it up at the SG position.   Actually, the Blazers might be one of several teams that would provide a better supporting cast than Durant has right now in Oklahoma City.

Westbrook and Durant aren't an ideal fit.  They both have a #1 game and all they've ever done is take turns.

The thing is, it really doesn't matter.  Having two top 5 talents on your roster is better than having a top 5 talent and some top 20-30 guy who complements his game. 

Not to mention, Ibaka / Kanter / Adams is a pretty great, young frontcourt as well, plus they have Roberson and Payne on the come-up.  OKC is in a pretty good position moving forward as long as they can figure out how to manage their cap sheet with all of these guys needing to get paid.


And by the way, I love Damian Lillard, but he's nowhere near the player Westbrook is.  Westbrook is 80% of an all-time great, and the other 20% is unbridled chaos that is pretty much a coin flip as to which team it helps and which team it hurts.

Lillard is a great leader on and off the court, and he's a wonderful scorer.  He's not a good defender and he doesn't have the raw talent and athleticism to put up numbers regardless of what the other team tries to do about it.   Westbrook does.

[LarBrd33]

I think you have a pretty big anti-OKC bias.

I think that support cast is not nearly as good as people think.

Westbrook had a statistical tear last season that got a lot of press, but was Rondo-esque in his hollowness.  Impressive bulk stats, but if you dug deeper into the numbers, it wasn't as hot:

Although Westbrook's stats have been impressive, especially over his last six games, some of the underlying numbers have not been as great.

He’s shooting 42 percent from the field over that span and has been under 50 percent in all six games; he’s shooting 26 percent from the 3-point line.

His effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the increased value of 3-pointers) is 44 percent, which would rank as the sixth-worst in the NBA over the entire season.

Four of the six games have come against teams with winning records. The Thunder are 1-3 in those four games and 2-4 overall.

He has at least four turnovers in each of the six games; that’s tied for the second-longest streak in the NBA this season (tied with a streak of his own from earlier in the season).

Before these six games, Oklahoma City led New Orleans by two games for the No. 8 playoff seed in the Western Conference. The teams are tied (although the Thunder lead by percentage points).

With Westbrook on the court over these six games, the Thunder have been outscored by 24 points. With Westbrook off the court over these six games, the Thunder have outscored their opponents by 36 points.

Not a shock that his efficiency plummeted without KD taking all of the attention.  Not a shock they failed to make the playoffs without KD carrying them.

Westbrook lead them to the lottery in spite of Durant playing 1/3rd of the games that year (they played at their normal 57 win pace when Durant suited up).   

I like guys like Ibaka and Steven Adams as well.  Westbrook is fun to watch.  But if you take Durant off that team, there are definitely better squads out there... so if you add Durant to those better squads, they theoretically would be better than the Thunder at their best. 

[PhoSita]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already has.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.

But talent without fit also doesn't mean much, as OKC itself and the Cavs have proved this postseason. One of the best arguments for him leaving is that he's not a good fit with Westbrrook, so I think there are several more reasons than just being in the East as you argue.

Sure, they might out-talent many teams on most nights, but a poor fit together is exposed when you play truly elite teams. Golden State is highlighting the poor fit in Cleveland right now, despite the immense talent that they have.

The Thunder beat a 67 win Spurs team and came within one game of closing out one of the greatest teams of all time.  Closer, by far, than anybody else this season, barring an astounding turnaround in this Finals series.


That's good enough for me.  If I were advising Durant, I'd tell him to stick around in OKC unless he believes Russ is likely to leave in a year.  Even then, sticking with OKC might still be the best option.  I don't think a team that signs Durant this summer is likely to offer him a significantly better chance at winning a title in the next 5 years.

[LooseCannon]

The reason to stay in OKC is money.  The reason to leave OKC would be if money is not the most important thing, if greed is not good, and if the accumulation of wealth isn't the greatest goal.  Then, just find something, like winning, that might be more important.

[Ilikesports17]

I think you have a pretty big anti-OKC bias.

I think that support cast is not nearly as good as people think.

Westbrook had a statistical tear last season that got a lot of press, but was Rondo-esque in his hollowness.  Impressive bulk stats, but if you dug deeper into the numbers, it wasn't as hot:

Although Westbrook's stats have been impressive, especially over his last six games, some of the underlying numbers have not been as great.

He’s shooting 42 percent from the field over that span and has been under 50 percent in all six games; he’s shooting 26 percent from the 3-point line.

His effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the increased value of 3-pointers) is 44 percent, which would rank as the sixth-worst in the NBA over the entire season.

Four of the six games have come against teams with winning records. The Thunder are 1-3 in those four games and 2-4 overall.

He has at least four turnovers in each of the six games; that’s tied for the second-longest streak in the NBA this season (tied with a streak of his own from earlier in the season).

Before these six games, Oklahoma City led New Orleans by two games for the No. 8 playoff seed in the Western Conference. The teams are tied (although the Thunder lead by percentage points).

With Westbrook on the court over these six games, the Thunder have been outscored by 24 points. With Westbrook off the court over these six games, the Thunder have outscored their opponents by 36 points.

Not a shock that his efficiency plummeted without KD taking all of the attention.  Not a shock they failed to make the playoffs without KD carrying them.

Westbrook lead them to the lottery in spite of Durant playing 1/3rd of the games that year (they played at their normal 57 win pace when Durant suited up).   

I like guys like Ibaka and Steven Adams as well.  Westbrook is fun to watch.  But if you take Durant off that team, there are definitely better squads out there... so if you add Durant to those better squads, they theoretically would be better than the Thunder at their best.

yeah you can make a nice argument that KD should leave, but PaulP told me there is a 0% chance... So....

I kid.

Either way, I think KD is overwelmingly likely to stay in OKC (but that may be mu way of
Protecting myself from getting too excited).

[LarBrd33]

The only argument is that having to beat LeBron and then ONE of the Western Conference contenders is an easier road to a title than having to beat 2 or 3 Western Conference contenders and THEN beat LeBron on top of that.

No team in the East can offer Durant the level of talent his current team already.  But playing in a conference with only one other team that has any hope of beating you in a series means your odds of winning a title are much higher.


Aside from that, the only point I can see on this is that Westbrook might bail next summer to have his own show somewhere else (LA or NY probably).  Maybe Durant knows that's likely to happen, and so he decides to leave this summer so he can start building experience and chemistry with a different team, probably in the East.

I still feel like Westbrook is a bit overrated... and he's the main reason people say Durant can't find a better supporting cast.   Honestly, I'm not sure Westbrook's talents compliment Durant as well as some people think.   They never really seemed like a great fit together.

Someone mentioned in another thread, the Thunder without Durant would compare well with the Blazers.  The idea is that Westbrook is similar to Damian Lillard.   Lillard is a more efficient scorer, though... and the Thunder don't have a CJ McCollum lighting it up at the SG position.   Actually, the Blazers might be one of several teams that would provide a better supporting cast than Durant has right now in Oklahoma City.

Westbrook and Durant aren't an ideal fit.  They both have a #1 game and all they've ever done is take turns.

The thing is, it really doesn't matter.  Having two top 5 talents on your roster is better than having a top 5 talent and some top 20-30 guy who complements his game. 

Not to mention, Ibaka / Kanter / Adams is a pretty great, young frontcourt as well, plus they have Roberson and Payne on the come-up.  OKC is in a pretty good position moving forward as long as they can figure out how to manage their cap sheet with all of these guys needing to get paid.


And by the way, I love Damian Lillard, but he's nowhere near the player Westbrook is.  Westbrook is 80% of an all-time great, and the other 20% is unbridled chaos that is pretty much a coin flip as to which team it helps and which team it hurts.

Lillard is a great leader on and off the court, and he's a wonderful scorer.  He's not a good defender and he doesn't have the raw talent and athleticism to put up numbers regardless of what the other team tries to do about it.   Westbrook does.

Westbrook is great if you like your main chucker shooting 29% shooting from three and getting 5 turnovers per game.   I mean, yeah... the guy is talented without question. 

Lillard shot 38% from three this year.  He lead a team to the playoffs without Kevin Durant - something Westbrook failed to accomplish.   Plus, Lillard is a better rapper.

More importantly, Portland has McCollom, who had a brilliant season... so that's just one random example of a team who arguably offers a better supporting cast than Durant has in OKC.   

He could, of course, join the 48 win Celtic team that could also add talent via the #3 pick and an additional max cap slot.   I'm pretty confident that team, with Durant, would be superior to the lotto squad Durant is carrying in OKC.

[LarBrd33]

The reason to stay in OKC is money.  The reason to leave OKC would be if money is not the most important thing, if greed is not good, and if the accumulation of wealth isn't the greatest goal.  Then, just find something, like winning, that might be more important.

Read Bill Simmons article.  There have been rumors for a couple years that his Nike contract may incentivize him several million dollars if he left OKC for a larger market.  If these rumors are true, money isn't a reason to stay.  Money is a reason to leave.

[PhoSita]

Westbrook changes the game.  Period.  He had the Warriors on their heels for the vast majority of that series.  It almost doesn't matter that sometimes he plays too fast for even himself.  He forces the game to be played on the Thunder's terms.  That's a huge advantage for OKC.

I'll take the force of nature on my team.