How many games would the Thunder win without Durant?

[LarBrd33]

In the after show, Kenny "the Jet" Smith made his case for why Durant has to pick the Thunder this summer.   He said it boils down to which team gives Durant the best chance to win.  He said that if Durant was coming from a different team (not the Thunder), he'd clearly see that the Thunder gave him the best opportunity to win.

This premise suggests that a hypothetical Oklahoma City Thunder team WITHOUT Durant would be the most attractive destination. 

So the question is simple.  How many games do you think the Thunder would win without Durant?  How good is that team without him?

I gave it some deep thought and came up with my answer here:  http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13861-why-kevin-durant-should-choose-the-boston-celtics-over-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-in-free-agency

Spoiler:  I like the Durant-less Celtics more than the Durant-less Thunder.

Curious what you guys think.

[Who]

47-50 wins

[mr. dee]

45 wins. Westbrook-led OKC won't win anything.

[LarBrd33]

47-50 wins

You tellin me Kevin Durant only adds 5 wins?

[LarBrd33]

45 wins. Westbrook-led OKC won't win anything.

They went 3-7 this year in games Durant missed.

Last year, they went 26-29 in games Durant missed.   They missed the playoffs because of it.  I'm bolding that, because it's a big one.  The Thunder went 19-8 last season in games Durant played (their typical 57 win pace).  But because he missed a large chunk of games, they failed to make the playoffs.  Think about that.  They literally couldn't make the playoffs without a full season from Durant.  We basically have our answer.

Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have gone 29-36 in games Durant has sat.  That's a 36 win pace. 

As far as I can tell, the Thunder would be lucky to crack 40 wins without Kevin Durant.

Celts came close to winning 50 last season without Durant.  Imagine how good they can be with him, another max contract and a big trade addition.

People look at it backwards.  They see the Thunder won 55 games and assume if Durant left it would be a set-back.  But when you consider that the THunder might be a 36 win team without Durant, and Boston is a 48 win team without Durant - you can easily make the case that joining Boston gives Durant the better opportunity to win.

[Who]

47-50 wins

You tellin me Kevin Durant only adds 5 wins?

This OKC team has the talent of a 62-65 win group. They underachieved badly in the regular season this year. So Durant is worth around 15 wins.

[CelticSooner]

Westbrook outplayed Durant this season. I know we'd like to see him in green but this season he didn't bring it enough. That being the biggest reason that talented team only won 55 games in the regular season. Without him they'd probably win 45-50 games and be about where they were last season.

Also West has more talented teams at the top compared to the East.

[Spilling Green Dye]

TP LarBrd33 for the well thought out topic & article.  It's definitely interesting to look at the losing record they had without him last year and this year... that should speak volumes to him. 

My guess is that Durant is too loyal to Westbrook to leave, even though I really do think Westbrook's game holds Durant back.  It'd be really fun to see Durant in a different style offense, especially one designed by Brad Stevens.

But, why does star player want to play in the West?  I just don't get that... Lebron would have made less than half of his finals trips if he had played in the West.  Less than half!! 

Edit - I never actually posted my projected win total lol.  I think the Celtics, with their current roster + #3 pick + Durant = 61 wins in the East.

[jambr380]

I'd say .500 or slightly above. You also have to take into consideration that OKC would like replace Durant with somebody cheaper who should mesh better with Westbrook (a sharp-shooter type) so it probably wouldn't be a total train wreck. Westbrook would also officially have the reins, something he would seem to covet. Playing under Durant when you feel like you may even be a little better has to feel constricting. Fans seem to get all over Westbrook for taking ill-advised shots, but Durant gets a free pass most of the time.

And I agree with you LarBrd, the Cs can offer quite a bit more. We could even gladly trade for Ibaka if Durant wanted to bring him along.

[GC003332]

The Thunder finished off the 2014-15 season with a 19-13 record without Durant in the lineup.
They had a 4-10 record in November of that season without Durant and Westbrook.Westbrook sat out two of the losses this past season also. So the record that the OP has presented without Durant in the lineup over the last two seasons should be taken with a grain of salt.
I will inform clnsradio of this fact also just so they are up to speed on David's article.

[TheSundanceKid]

45 wins. Westbrook-led OKC won't win anything.

They went 3-7 this year in games Durant missed.

Last year, they went 26-29 in games Durant missed.   They missed the playoffs because of it.  I'm bolding that, because it's a big one.  The Thunder went 19-8 last season in games Durant played (their typical 57 win pace).  But because he missed a large chunk of games, they failed to make the playoffs.  Think about that.  They literally couldn't make the playoffs without a full season from Durant.  We basically have our answer.

Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have gone 29-36 in games Durant has sat.  That's a 36 win pace. 

As far as I can tell, the Thunder would be lucky to crack 40 wins without Kevin Durant.

Celts came close to winning 50 last season without Durant.  Imagine how good they can be with him, another max contract and a big trade addition.

People look at it backwards.  They see the Thunder won 55 games and assume if Durant left it would be a set-back.  But when you consider that the THunder might be a 36 win team without Durant, and Boston is a 48 win team without Durant - you can easily make the case that joining Boston gives Durant the better opportunity to win.

I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Last year he suffered a mid season injury so the team had to adjust to life without their key player on the fly. In a full season without Durant I think they would do a little better than 26-29 suggests. I would think they hang around the 42-44 win mark. Westbrook is good and could put up some Oscar Robertson type numbers in that scenario but the supporting cast wouldn't be able to step up and make the difference.

The only thing is, it's a lot harder to get a guy like Westbrook on your team than it is to adjust the supporting cast so I think Boston would need to have someone in place before talking to Durant. In the build up to the draft Danny needs to be all over the phones trying to get a deal done. My ideal would be Marc Gasol, I think he'd be a big lure for Durant.

[Csfan1984]

52

[Celtics18]

As a Celtics fan, of course I'd love it if KD chose to come to Boston.  But as a general fan of the game, there's a part of me that hopes he stays in OKC.  sticking by his teammates and the franchise that's embraced him and raised him seems like it would be the honorable thing to do.

The thing that would upset me the most would be if he left Oklahoma for a destination other than Boston.

[chilidawg]

45 wins. Westbrook-led OKC won't win anything.

They went 3-7 this year in games Durant missed.

Last year, they went 26-29 in games Durant missed.   They missed the playoffs because of it.  I'm bolding that, because it's a big one.  The Thunder went 19-8 last season in games Durant played (their typical 57 win pace).  But because he missed a large chunk of games, they failed to make the playoffs.  Think about that.  They literally couldn't make the playoffs without a full season from Durant.  We basically have our answer.

Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have gone 29-36 in games Durant has sat.  That's a 36 win pace. 

As far as I can tell, the Thunder would be lucky to crack 40 wins without Kevin Durant.

Celts came close to winning 50 last season without Durant.  Imagine how good they can be with him, another max contract and a big trade addition.

People look at it backwards.  They see the Thunder won 55 games and assume if Durant left it would be a set-back.  But when you consider that the THunder might be a 36 win team without Durant, and Boston is a 48 win team without Durant - you can easily make the case that joining Boston gives Durant the better opportunity to win.

You don't need to convince us, just Durant.   

[dreamgreen]

Well what was their record last year? Because he didn't play much and wasn't healthy and Westbrook went on a super human tear!