Author Topic: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread  (Read 160756 times)

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Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2016, 01:40:47 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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I think Lebron knows he better win it this year, because a revamped C's team is coming for him next season!

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2016, 01:44:09 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Warriors in six.

I think the Warriors are clearly better than the Cavs. I don't see how the Cavs can keep their best players on the floor against this Warriors team.

The Cavs can bring size to bear and they have good outside shooting. What they can't do is beat the Warriors with size, athleticism, and shooting in any particular lineup. The Cavs will have to pick and choose due to the limitations of their main guys apart from LeBron. That's not something you can afford to do against this Warriors team.

That said, Bron will win a game on the road. That's what he does. He always gets one on the road. Probably in the first two games. So I see this as a series that could go four or five based on the disparity between the teams, but LeBron will make it go six.
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Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2016, 01:55:43 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Warriors in 5.

Even I was getting scared watching the Cavs steamroll the Raptors. This could be the year, I thought. Last year they didn't have Love and Irving. This year they're back, plus they've got certain new guys like Channing Frye and they look deadly. Uh oh.

Then I remembered one important fact: They were playing the Raptors. Meanwhile, the Warriors just beat a red-hot Thunder team that was playing its best ball of the season, and had just rolled over a 67-win Spurs team.
This is what's going to happen: The Warriors will win both at home, and one of two in Cleveland. Then they'll finish it off in Oakland in game 5.

The Cavs have not faced any significant adversity in these playoffs. When put to the fire, they will resort to Lebron and Kyrie hero ball. Guys like Love, Frye, etc. will essentially become ball watchers sitting on the perimeter, and all that team chemistry they've built up over the first three rounds will be gone. The ball movement and the defensive rotations will slow down. With great talent you can survive like that for spurts, maybe even for a game or two. But you can't beat a 73-win team with that formula.
This

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2016, 02:10:41 PM »

Offline j804

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Yea I think Love/Frye/Irving will be exposed on the defensive end big time.
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Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2016, 02:13:34 PM »

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Yea I think Love/Frye/Irving will be exposed on the defensive end big time.
Moment of truth for Kevin Love. Just how painfully bad a defender he truly is.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2016, 02:56:21 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Yea I think Love/Frye/Irving will be exposed on the defensive end big time.
Moment of truth for Kevin Love. Just how painfully bad a defender he truly is.
Hoping that finally squashes the Love-to-Boston sentiment.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2016, 06:17:48 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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Yea I think Love/Frye/Irving will be exposed on the defensive end big time.
Moment of truth for Kevin Love. Just how painfully bad a defender he truly is.

Yep. His play is the X-Factor in determining how well Cleveland does in this series.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2016, 06:41:33 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Golden State seems like the majority favorite, and for good reason, but I'm not going to underestimate LeBron's drive to bring Cleveland a title. This is a big Finals for him—he's a mere 2-5 in Finals appearances, with both wins coming in Miami, so his Cleveland legacy (along with, perhaps, his NBA legacy) is on the line.
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Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2016, 10:28:08 AM »

Offline greece66

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Golden State seems like the majority favorite, and for good reason, but I'm not going to underestimate LeBron's drive to bring Cleveland a title. This is a big Finals for him—he's a mere 2-5 in Finals appearances, with both wins coming in Miami, so his Cleveland legacy (along with, perhaps, his NBA legacy) is on the line.

2-4 iirc

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2016, 10:45:24 AM »

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Starters

PG: S.Curry vs Irving = advantage GSW
SG: K.Thompson vs JR Smith = advantage GSW
SF: Iguodala vs LeBron = advantage CLE
PF: Draymond Green vs K-Love = advantage GSW
 C: Bogut vs T.Thompson

3 advantageous matchups for GSW to 1 for CLE

Bench

PG: S.Livingston vs Delladova = neutral
SG: L.Barbosa vs  Shumpert = advantage CLE
SF: H.Barnes vs R.Jefferson = advantage GSW
PF: Speights vs Frye = advantage CLE
 C: Ezeli vs Mozgov = neutral

2 advantages to 1 for Cleveland.
Others

Head Coach: Steve Kerr vs Ty Lue = advantage GSW
3rd string big: Varejao vs S.Kaun = advantage GSW
3rd string wing: B.Rush vs J.Jomes = advantage GSW
3rd string guard: I.Clark vs Mo Williams = advantage CLE

Advantage for GSW in coaching.
Smaller 2-to-1 advantage in end of bench.

Overall

Golden State has more advantageous matchups than Cleveland.

Looks like the two key matchups are with LeBron's supporting stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. If Kyrie can battle Steph Curry close, that could swing things CLE's way.

I'd like to see CLE go small with their starting lineup. Make Bogut defend K-Love. I think that could help get more out of Love.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #25 on: June 02, 2016, 10:57:09 AM »

Offline GetLucky

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Golden State seems like the majority favorite, and for good reason, but I'm not going to underestimate LeBron's drive to bring Cleveland a title. This is a big Finals for him—he's a mere 2-5 in Finals appearances, with both wins coming in Miami, so his Cleveland legacy (along with, perhaps, his NBA legacy) is on the line.

2-4 iirc

you don't recall correctly  ;D

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #26 on: June 02, 2016, 10:58:54 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Golden State seems like the majority favorite, and for good reason, but I'm not going to underestimate LeBron's drive to bring Cleveland a title. This is a big Finals for him—he's a mere 2-5 in Finals appearances, with both wins coming in Miami, so his Cleveland legacy (along with, perhaps, his NBA legacy) is on the line.

2-4 iirc

you don't recall correctly  ;D

0-1 with Cavs, 2-2 with Miami, and then 0-1 with Cavs again.  2-4.  He recalls correctly.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #27 on: June 02, 2016, 02:23:45 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Starters

PG: S.Curry vs Irving = advantage GSW
SG: K.Thompson vs JR Smith = advantage GSW
SF: Iguodala vs LeBron = advantage CLE
PF: Draymond Green vs K-Love = advantage GSW
 C: Bogut vs T.Thompson

3 advantageous matchups for GSW to 1 for CLE

Bench

PG: S.Livingston vs Delladova = neutral
SG: L.Barbosa vs  Shumpert = advantage CLE
SF: H.Barnes vs R.Jefferson = advantage GSW
PF: Speights vs Frye = advantage CLE
 C: Ezeli vs Mozgov = neutral

2 advantages to 1 for Cleveland.
Others

Head Coach: Steve Kerr vs Ty Lue = advantage GSW
3rd string big: Varejao vs S.Kaun = advantage GSW
3rd string wing: B.Rush vs J.Jomes = advantage GSW
3rd string guard: I.Clark vs Mo Williams = advantage CLE

Advantage for GSW in coaching.
Smaller 2-to-1 advantage in end of bench.

Overall

Golden State has more advantageous matchups than Cleveland.

Looks like the two key matchups are with LeBron's supporting stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. If Kyrie can battle Steph Curry close, that could swing things CLE's way.

I'd like to see CLE go small with their starting lineup. Make Bogut defend K-Love. I think that could help get more out of Love.
Love will outscore and outrebound Green.  Love will also shoot better than Green.  Not sure why you then call that an advantage to GS.  Iggy doesn't start, Barnes does (though it doesn't really affect your analysis).  Tristan will outperform Bogut in virtually every way.  Thus that would be an advantage to Cleveland.  So that would be 3 advantages to 2 for Cleveland from the starting 5 and Cleveland still has the best player in this series.
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Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #28 on: June 02, 2016, 03:48:53 PM »

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Starters

PG: S.Curry vs Irving = advantage GSW
SG: K.Thompson vs JR Smith = advantage GSW
SF: Iguodala vs LeBron = advantage CLE
PF: Draymond Green vs K-Love = advantage GSW
 C: Bogut vs T.Thompson

3 advantageous matchups for GSW to 1 for CLE

Bench

PG: S.Livingston vs Delladova = neutral
SG: L.Barbosa vs  Shumpert = advantage CLE
SF: H.Barnes vs R.Jefferson = advantage GSW
PF: Speights vs Frye = advantage CLE
 C: Ezeli vs Mozgov = neutral

2 advantages to 1 for Cleveland.
Others

Head Coach: Steve Kerr vs Ty Lue = advantage GSW
3rd string big: Varejao vs S.Kaun = advantage GSW
3rd string wing: B.Rush vs J.Jomes = advantage GSW
3rd string guard: I.Clark vs Mo Williams = advantage CLE

Advantage for GSW in coaching.
Smaller 2-to-1 advantage in end of bench.

Overall

Golden State has more advantageous matchups than Cleveland.

Looks like the two key matchups are with LeBron's supporting stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. If Kyrie can battle Steph Curry close, that could swing things CLE's way.

I'd like to see CLE go small with their starting lineup. Make Bogut defend K-Love. I think that could help get more out of Love.
Love will outscore and outrebound Green.  Love will also shoot better than Green.  Not sure why you then call that an advantage to GS.  Iggy doesn't start, Barnes does (though it doesn't really affect your analysis).  Tristan will outperform Bogut in virtually every way.  Thus that would be an advantage to Cleveland.  So that would be 3 advantages to 2 for Cleveland from the starting 5 and Cleveland still has the best player in this series.

I see Draymond Green as having the advantage over Kevin Love because of the difference in their respective defensive abilities. Both individual defense + team defense. Whereas Draymond Green makes a large contribution to making GSW a top defensive team, Kevin Love is the opposite and is a liability that exposes an otherwise high level defensive team to the Warriors offense.

I feel Tristan Thompson and Andrew Bogut are fairly even. Different strengths defensively. Thompson quicker and better defending away from the rim. Bogut a better shot-blocker and more of a deterrent in the paint. Thompson better in transition offense and cutting. Bogut a better facilitator with his passing and screen-setting. Thompson should have an advantage on the boards with his quickness and mobility ... but I didn't think that was enough to give him a matchup advantage. Too even.

That is how I see things anyway.

Re: NBA Finals 2015-2016 thread
« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2016, 04:02:39 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Starters

PG: S.Curry vs Irving = advantage GSW
SG: K.Thompson vs JR Smith = advantage GSW
SF: Iguodala vs LeBron = advantage CLE
PF: Draymond Green vs K-Love = advantage GSW
 C: Bogut vs T.Thompson

3 advantageous matchups for GSW to 1 for CLE

Bench

PG: S.Livingston vs Delladova = neutral
SG: L.Barbosa vs  Shumpert = advantage CLE
SF: H.Barnes vs R.Jefferson = advantage GSW
PF: Speights vs Frye = advantage CLE
 C: Ezeli vs Mozgov = neutral

2 advantages to 1 for Cleveland.
Others

Head Coach: Steve Kerr vs Ty Lue = advantage GSW
3rd string big: Varejao vs S.Kaun = advantage GSW
3rd string wing: B.Rush vs J.Jomes = advantage GSW
3rd string guard: I.Clark vs Mo Williams = advantage CLE

Advantage for GSW in coaching.
Smaller 2-to-1 advantage in end of bench.

Overall

Golden State has more advantageous matchups than Cleveland.

Looks like the two key matchups are with LeBron's supporting stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. If Kyrie can battle Steph Curry close, that could swing things CLE's way.

I'd like to see CLE go small with their starting lineup. Make Bogut defend K-Love. I think that could help get more out of Love.
Love will outscore and outrebound Green.  Love will also shoot better than Green.  Not sure why you then call that an advantage to GS.  Iggy doesn't start, Barnes does (though it doesn't really affect your analysis).  Tristan will outperform Bogut in virtually every way.  Thus that would be an advantage to Cleveland.  So that would be 3 advantages to 2 for Cleveland from the starting 5 and Cleveland still has the best player in this series.

I see Draymond Green as having the advantage over Kevin Love because of the difference in their respective defensive abilities. Both individual defense + team defense. Whereas Draymond Green makes a large contribution to making GSW a top defensive team, Kevin Love is the opposite and is a liability that exposes an otherwise high level defensive team to the Warriors offense.

I feel Tristan Thompson and Andrew Bogut are fairly even. Different strengths defensively. Thompson quicker and better defending away from the rim. Bogut a better shot-blocker and more of a deterrent in the paint. Thompson better in transition offense and cutting. Bogut a better facilitator with his passing and screen-setting. Thompson should have an advantage on the boards with his quickness and mobility ... but I didn't think that was enough to give him a matchup advantage. Too even.

That is how I see things anyway.
Fair enough points, though I expect Love to be on Bogut and Thompson to be on Green and if you will recall Thompson absolutely shut Green down last year.  I expect to see that again.
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