Another Bender Post

[Celtics4ever]

Here's why I think this is so interesting: Davis was 19 when he was drafted, but Bender will be 18 when he is drafted. Imagine if Bender went to Kentucky this coming season and Kentucky really didn't have another good center

He could not put up numbers in Israel, what makes you think that he could play in the SEC.   You know which Americans play in Israel, not the best players, because if they were better than would play elsewhere.

I don't agree. His point was that coaches in the Euroleague are pressured to win games, not develop prospects

If  this were the case and he would good wouldn't he play because he would give them the best chance to win?  Thanks for convincing even more than he would be a huge mistake.  Good players give you best chance to win.

He goes to Kentucky and he might not play there either folks.   He is not even close to some of their past C's in terms of production.

[Boris Badenov]

Let me offer a comparison.  When Larry Bird was 18 years old he was putting up 30 points and 15 rebounds.  He was a transcendent talent.  Bender wanders around the perimeter, sometimes finds open shots, and basically never impacts an israeli league game. I honestly think that Bender isn't the best NBA prospect on the Macabbi team right now.  18 years old is not an excuse for being a bad basketball player.

Just for the record, when Larry Bird was 18 he was hauling garbage in French Lick, Indiana.

He turned 21 his "freshman" year at Indiana State, when he averaged 33 and 13.

If Bender had started college this past year, we'd have to wait until his senior year to get a relevant comp to Bird's freshman season, age-wise.

Not saying I know anything about how good Bender will be. Just that Bird's case is not apples-to-apples.

Bird was born Dec 7, 1956.  His Freshman year was 76-77.  Pretty straightforward.  He was 19 when the season tipped off and turned 20 that year.  Close enough for me. 

I stand corrected on the date but the point stands. Bird was in French Lick at 18, and Bird's freshman year would be what we would compare to Bender's junior year, if he started school this year.

Not apple-to-apples. The leap between 18 and 20 for most players is huge.

This is not a prediction. If you want to say that Bender will almost certainly not be as good as Larry Bird, that's cool.

But saying that Bird was "transcendent" or "jumped off the screen" at age 18 is ridiculous. He wasn't even playing organized basketball. You actually picked an example that proves the opposite of your point.

[PickNRoll]

Let me offer a comparison.  When Larry Bird was 18 years old he was putting up 30 points and 15 rebounds.  He was a transcendent talent.  Bender wanders around the perimeter, sometimes finds open shots, and basically never impacts an israeli league game. I honestly think that Bender isn't the best NBA prospect on the Macabbi team right now.  18 years old is not an excuse for being a bad basketball player.

Just for the record, when Larry Bird was 18 he was hauling garbage in French Lick, Indiana.

He turned 21 his "freshman" year at Indiana State, when he averaged 33 and 13.

If Bender had started college this past year, we'd have to wait until his senior year to get a relevant comp to Bird's freshman season, age-wise.

Not saying I know anything about how good Bender will be. Just that Bird's case is not apples-to-apples.

Bird was born Dec 7, 1956.  His Freshman year was 76-77.  Pretty straightforward.  He was 19 when the season tipped off and turned 20 that year.  Close enough for me. 

I stand corrected on the date but the point stands. Bird was in French Lick at 18, and Bird's freshman year would be what we would compare to Bender's junior year, if he started school this year.

Not apple-to-apples. The leap between 18 and 20 for most players is huge.

This is not a prediction. If you want to say that Bender will almost certainly not be as good as Larry Bird, that's cool.

But saying that Bird was "transcendent" or "jumped off the screen" at age 18 is ridiculous. He wasn't even playing organized basketball. You actually picked an example that proves the opposite of your point.

Bird was transcendent and jumped off the screen the first time we saw him play college ball.  He was 19.  Bender will be 19 in 6 months and has shown nothing.   Will he improve?  Sure.  Will he be an all-star some day?  Impossible, or very near to it.  I've never in my life seen an 18 year old who, roughly speaking, displays Division 2 NCAA talent morph into an NBA star.  Will he carve out a niche as a role player.  Sure, give him a few years.  He's tall and by all accounts is a hard worker.  Is this what we want with the 3rd pick in the draft? 

[Boris Badenov]

Let me offer a comparison.  When Larry Bird was 18 years old he was putting up 30 points and 15 rebounds.  He was a transcendent talent.  Bender wanders around the perimeter, sometimes finds open shots, and basically never impacts an israeli league game. I honestly think that Bender isn't the best NBA prospect on the Macabbi team right now.  18 years old is not an excuse for being a bad basketball player.

Just for the record, when Larry Bird was 18 he was hauling garbage in French Lick, Indiana.

He turned 21 his "freshman" year at Indiana State, when he averaged 33 and 13.

If Bender had started college this past year, we'd have to wait until his senior year to get a relevant comp to Bird's freshman season, age-wise.

Not saying I know anything about how good Bender will be. Just that Bird's case is not apples-to-apples.

Bird was born Dec 7, 1956.  His Freshman year was 76-77.  Pretty straightforward.  He was 19 when the season tipped off and turned 20 that year.  Close enough for me. 

I stand corrected on the date but the point stands. Bird was in French Lick at 18, and Bird's freshman year would be what we would compare to Bender's junior year, if he started school this year.

Not apple-to-apples. The leap between 18 and 20 for most players is huge.

This is not a prediction. If you want to say that Bender will almost certainly not be as good as Larry Bird, that's cool.

But saying that Bird was "transcendent" or "jumped off the screen" at age 18 is ridiculous. He wasn't even playing organized basketball. You actually picked an example that proves the opposite of your point.

Bird was transcendent and jumped off the screen the first time we saw him play college ball.  He was 19.  Bender will be 19 in 6 months and has shown nothing.   Will he improve?  Sure.  Will he be an all-star some day?  Impossible, or very near to it.  I've never in my life seen an 18 year old who, roughly speaking, displays Division 2 NCAA talent morph into an NBA star.  Will he carve out a niche as a role player.  Sure, give him a few years.  He's tall and by all accounts is a hard worker.  Is this what we want with the 3rd pick in the draft?

Your concerns about Bender are valid, of course. I'm just saying Bird was a bad example. When he was Bender's age as of the draft, no one had ever seen him play a minute of college ball. That's even less to go on than what we have with Bender.

And again - you're talking about Larry Bird. Plenty of other guys looked mediocre at age 18 and ended up blossoming into great players.

I mean if Bender looked half as good as Bird did at this point, he'd be going #1 anyway and we'd only be discussing him with the sort of another-one-that-got-away teariness usually reserved for Tim Duncan around these parts.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Jimmy Butler went from being picked late in the first round to an all-star in 4 years.

Davis wasn't even the number one recruit at the beginning of his freshman season. In fact, just a couple years before he was in the NBA, he was a 6'2'' point guard.

Damian Lillard went from a nothing prospect to an All-star.

Ingram was mostly not considered to be the 2nd best player in this draft because of how quickly he has developed through his senior year of high school and freshman year of college.

Its ignorant to expect every player to dominate every step of their development. Bird did. Lebron James did. Duncan did. Shaq did. Melo did.

Garnett did not. Kobe did not.

Paul George didn't exactly dominate against WAC competition at Fresno State. Kawhi Leonard did not dominate against MWC competition at San Diego State. Russell Westbrook struggled in college.

Your argumentation is flawed, especially considering the fact that Bender is younger than many of those guys when they came into the league.

You don't expect a freshman in high school to dominate the varsity basketball team. You look at his potential and how he faired against players his age. Then you develop his game so he can be a dominate player as a senior.

That's Bender. Is there potential? The size and fluidity says his athleticism isn't going to hold him back. His play against guys his age has been great. He has shown the ability to shoot, pass, and defend at a high level. The IQ and work ethic is there to add more to his game. But he is still a JV player. I don't expect him to dominate against the varsity level yet. But that is what he has been playing against.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Do you realize that KG came into the league as a 19 year old straight out of high school. His birthday was May.

Bender is a full 1/2 younger than KG! Even though drafting a player out of high school is done, Bender is going to be drafted younger than Kevin Garnett!

I don't think we really understand how young Bender is. How many 18 year old 7'1'' guys have his agility and speed? Is there even one in every draft? Add to that his feel for the game, experience, work ethic, and an outside shot, and the potential is obviously there.

[PickNRoll]

Jimmy Butler went from being picked late in the first round to an all-star in 4 years.

Davis wasn't even the number one recruit at the beginning of his freshman season. In fact, just a couple years before he was in the NBA, he was a 6'2'' point guard.

Damian Lillard went from a nothing prospect to an All-star.

Ingram was mostly not considered to be the 2nd best player in this draft because of how quickly he has developed through his senior year of high school and freshman year of college.

Its ignorant to expect every player to dominate every step of their development. Bird did. Lebron James did. Duncan did. Shaq did. Melo did.

Garnett did not. Kobe did not.

Paul George didn't exactly dominate against WAC competition at Fresno State. Kawhi Leonard did not dominate against MWC competition at San Diego State. Russell Westbrook struggled in college.

Your argumentation is flawed, especially considering the fact that Bender is younger than many of those guys when they came into the league.

You don't expect a freshman in high school to dominate the varsity basketball team. You look at his potential and how he faired against players his age. Then you develop his game so he can be a dominate player as a senior.

That's Bender. Is there potential? The size and fluidity says his athleticism isn't going to hold him back. His play against guys his age has been great. He has shown the ability to shoot, pass, and defend at a high level. The IQ and work ethic is there to add more to his game. But he is still a JV player. I don't expect him to dominate against the varsity level yet. But that is what he has been playing against.

I understand what you're saying, but again, I disagree.  His athleticism is not great.  He has not shown the ability to pass OR defend at a high level in Israel.  24 assists in 37 games, if memory serves.  In each of the games I've watched, his defense appears well below average.  His defensive instincts appear subpar, to be kind.  He can't defend the post, gets shoved around.  On the perimeter, it's often a layup drill against smaller players.  I'm inclined to make a lowlight video of players blowing by him, and there's some good material.  His lateral quickness is just OK for a guy his size, but definitely not a strength.  His straight line speed is quite good, in the mold of Tyler Zeller.  Add it all up and you have a tall guy who runs fast in a straight line and shoots 3's.  Nothing I've seen suggests a better pro than Scalabrine, all due respect to Scals.

[PickNRoll]

Do you realize that KG came into the league as a 19 year old straight out of high school. His birthday was May.

Bender is a full 1/2 younger than KG! Even though drafting a player out of high school is done, Bender is going to be drafted younger than Kevin Garnett!

I don't think we really understand how young Bender is. How many 18 year old 7'1'' guys have his agility and speed? Is there even one in every draft? Add to that his feel for the game, experience, work ethic, and an outside shot, and the potential is obviously there.

I don't get it.  He's younger than xxx so he must be as good as xxx?  That's not how basketball works.  Or... "he doesn't appear to be good now, but he's 18 years old".  Who cares?  A lot of guys and gals are 18 years old and can't play.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't feel like you guys completely understand what I'm saying about him. I'm not saying he is Bird or Garnett. I'm not saying his ability is all there. I'm not saying that because he is young, he will be good. But, I don't think I'm going to get my point across.

I do see the potential though.

[PickNRoll]

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't feel like you guys completely understand what I'm saying about him. I'm not saying he is Bird or Garnett. I'm not saying his ability is all there. I'm not saying that because he is young, he will be good. But, I don't think I'm going to get my point across.

I do see the potential though.

Fair enough.  I can respect that.  My question is, what do you think his ceiling is and what are the odds?  I wonder if we're in the same ballpark.

If you think he can be a serviceable role player and maybe evolve into a versatile defender and 3 point shooter, I kinda see it.  Maybe he can become a Nicolas Batum caliber player.  I doubt it, but it's not impossible.  My problem is, I don't want to gamble the #3 on that.  We have to aim higher.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't feel like you guys completely understand what I'm saying about him. I'm not saying he is Bird or Garnett. I'm not saying his ability is all there. I'm not saying that because he is young, he will be good. But, I don't think I'm going to get my point across.

I do see the potential though.

Fair enough.  I can respect that.  My question is, what do you think his ceiling is and what are the odds?  I wonder if we're in the same ballpark.

If you think he can be a serviceable role player and maybe evolve into a versatile defender and 3 point shooter, I kinda see it.  Maybe he can become a Nicolas Batum caliber player.  I doubt it, but it's not impossible.  My problem is, I don't want to gamble the #3 on that.  We have to aim higher.

Here's how I'll put it. The odds of him becoming a superstar are small, but I think he has the best chance of anyone after Simmons and Ingram. 
Anthony Davis/Superstar - 5%
Anthony Davis-lite/Pau Gasol All-star - 20%
Toni Kukoc/Hedo Turkoglu starter - 40%
Meyers Leonard/Jonas Jerebko role player - 30%
Nikola Tskitizvili (sp?) bust - 5%

[PickNRoll]

We will have to agree to disagree. I don't feel like you guys completely understand what I'm saying about him. I'm not saying he is Bird or Garnett. I'm not saying his ability is all there. I'm not saying that because he is young, he will be good. But, I don't think I'm going to get my point across.

I do see the potential though.

Fair enough.  I can respect that.  My question is, what do you think his ceiling is and what are the odds?  I wonder if we're in the same ballpark.

If you think he can be a serviceable role player and maybe evolve into a versatile defender and 3 point shooter, I kinda see it.  Maybe he can become a Nicolas Batum caliber player.  I doubt it, but it's not impossible.  My problem is, I don't want to gamble the #3 on that.  We have to aim higher.

Here's how I'll put it. The odds of him becoming a superstar are small, but I think he has the best chance of anyone after Simmons and Ingram. 
Anthony Davis/Superstar - 5%
Anthony Davis-lite/Pau Gasol All-star - 20%
Toni Kukoc/Hedo Turkoglu starter - 40%
Meyers Leonard/Jonas Jerebko role player - 30%
Nikola Tskitizvili (sp?) bust - 5%

TP.  The interesting part is that my projections aren't that far off of yours.  I think the Meyers Leonard/ Jerebko level is in the 60% range  and there's 0% chance of Anthony Davis, and that's where my pessimism stems from.  Kukoc and Turkoglu were savvy players, a la Ginobli.  Bender does NOT possess that gene and you can't teach it.  He's taller and he's young, and that's where it ends.  Guys don't wake up one day with the Kukoc/Ginobli gene.  If he had it, we'd know.  Wouldn't matter if he were 13 years old.  When you watch him play, he definitely is not that type of player.  The game is hard for him.

[Smokeeye123]

I trust Ainge and our scouts to make the right pick or the right move. If they all believe Dragan is the BPA than I trust them 100%.

[Who]

I feel his upside is better as a center than as a forward.

Not encouraged by his so-so athleticism. He lacks the explosive athleticism to beat good defensive PFs one-on-one. However, Bender does have above average quickness for a center and could create for himself and others better there. His skill-level out on the perimeter while good for a PF would be excellent for a center. Not many centers like to defend a guy who can shoot the three like Bender or can handle the ball and pass off the dribble. Bender would be a much more dynamic offensive threat at the five than the four.

Bender has the size to defend the five one day. He needs to grow into his body some more. But with weight gain and some training, I don't think defending the five should be a problem for him in a couple of years time.

[Celtics4ever]

I feel his upside is better as a center than as a forward.

Trouble is he wants to play SF.  Nothing of his game denotes that he will play C or PF.   He loves the perimeter.

I think the rest of your post is great.

I trust Ainge and our scouts to make the right pick or the right move. If they all believe Dragan is the BPA than I trust them 100%.

At the end of the day, I do as well.   But I trust Ainge a lot more picking guards a position he played than bigs.    I wish we hired McHale for a big trainer/draft guru.   He knows bigs.