Author Topic: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid  (Read 8238 times)

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Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #45 on: May 29, 2016, 08:08:23 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I mostly agree with LarBrd33 here (which is a rarity).  If you make this kind of deal, you're buying a lottery ticket with long odds.

If Embiid could stay healthy and was committed, he's a top center in the league.  No doubt in my mind.  The likelihood of that happening is maybe in the 5-20% range.  That's one heck of a gamble.  Personally, I'm not willing to take that kind of risk.  We're well-situated and we don't need to roll those dice.
Some might argue that being well situated (48 win team with double max cap space) affords us the luxury of taking this kind of risk.   We have two more Brooklyn picks coming.  If you can turn #3 into a high risk/high reward talent, it might be wise.   As opposed to just adding another low risk/low reward role player who isn't going to move the needle. 

I'm not sure if I'd actually offer #3 for embiid.  It definitely depends on what the other options are.  It doesn't matter much because I don't see this hypothetical happening. Sounds like philly is cautiously optimistic about embiid and still see him as a key piece.  And I doubt Boston would actually take on that risk (though ainge is a proven risk taker).  But I will say, if Boston actually did move #3 for embiid, I don't think my reaction would be horror.  I'd be on board with it pretty quickly.  I still think embiid has a real chance to be special.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #46 on: May 29, 2016, 08:15:26 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Let's trade the highest draft pick we've had in over 19 years for Greg Oden 2.0.  Sure, what could go wrong??   ;) 

Hell, Embiid wasn't even taken #1 overall, so we're trading our top draft choice for a poor man's Greg Oden then?
Ok look at it like this. 

Say the guy available at #3 (Buddy Hield, for instance) has a ceiling of JJ Reddick (great sharp shooter who can get you 18 a night) and a floor of Anthony Morrow (quality role player who can hit threes off the bench). 

Say Embiid has a ceiling of Hakeem (dominant two way superstar) and a floor of oden (never plays a significant minute).

Would you trade #3 knowing it has a better chance of becoming a decent player... But the guy you are potentially getting has a superstar ceiling with a 50% chance of never playing?

I'm not saying it's as cut and dry as that, but that seems to be the logic behind the idea.  Supposedly nobody at #3 has allstar potential let alone superstar potential.  Of course, we know flukey things happen so maybe someone taken in the middle of this draft develops into a star.  But the pre-draft consensus right now seems to be that your chance of getting a future superstar at 3 is slim to none... Whereas, healthy embiid is still seen as someone who can be a game changer.
It seems kind of wrong to say that Embiid has the upside of Hakeem.  If that's the case, Jalen Brown has the upside of Michael Jordan and Bender could be Dirk.

Except that several NBA scouts and analysts have been quoted as saying Embiid's ceiling was Hakeem, none have ever gone on record saying anything of the sort for Jaylen Brown, and the Dirk/Bender comparison's have been discussed by all analysts ad naseaum, so maybe that one is fair.

Pre-injury Embiid was the best prospect since AD. And now he's 7'3. It is no exaggeration to say that Embiid could be as great as Hakeem if he stays healthy... which is why the Sixers will not trade him, unless they are certain he will not stay healthy.
Right.  The same reasons a team like Boston might want embiid are the same reasons Philly will probably keep him.   The only reason they'd move him is if someone tempted them hard with a quality asset/player, they didn't like the offers they were getting for Noel/Okafor, or the new regime just wanted to clean house entirely and have a fresh start.  In which case maybe they'd move all three of their bigs and just try to sells fans on the new vision.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #47 on: May 29, 2016, 08:16:39 PM »

Offline Corey

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I'd rather take my chances with Embiid than Bender, personally. I think Philly would, too.

Embiid has the highest upside of anyone on Philly's roster. I doubt they trade him without seeing him on the court for real.

Unless we're using #3 for a trade for a close-to-star level player, Embiid is better than anything we would get at #3. I'll take the chance, why not? Is Bender more of a sure thing?

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #48 on: May 29, 2016, 08:20:22 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I can't believe this thread has gone 4 pages on such an absurd premise. The value of embiid is not as high as this. He was the 3rd pick when he was drafted because of injuries. His injury concerns have only been increased in the two years since he was drafted and he has had very limited basketball experience or training at the NBA level. To add to it even minor character concerns have been added with him cleaning out junk food on hotel trips, fighting with training staff and flying to Vegas against the teams wishes. How is the world does this make him of equal value to the 3rd pick in a draft two years later when his rookie contract is half gone. Maybe the Dallas pick would be fair but this would be an absurd trade with more than that.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #49 on: May 29, 2016, 08:26:37 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I can't believe this thread has gone 4 pages on such an absurd premise. The value of embiid is not as high as this. He was the 3rd pick when he was drafted because of injuries. His injury concerns have only been increased in the two years since he was drafted and he has had very limited basketball experience or training at the NBA level. To add to it even minor character concerns have been added with him cleaning out junk food on hotel trips, fighting with training staff and flying to Vegas against the teams wishes. How is the world does this make him of equal value to the 3rd pick in a draft two years later when his rookie contract is half gone. Maybe the Dallas pick would be fair but this would be an absurd trade with more than that.
Embiid almost went 1st in spite of his injury.  And that was believed to be a stronger draft than this.  If the top 9 prospects from 2014 were in this draft class, they might all go ahead of the guy who is going 3rd this year.  Hence why the idea exists. Fair or unfair, the perception of the players available at 3 are that none of them have star potential.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2016, 08:26:58 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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What are the historical precidents for a player missing the first two seasons of his career with injury?
For what it's worth, based on everything I read last summer (Philly still wasn't tremendously open about the situation), embiid could have played if they had no concern for his long term health.  He was running around dunking and dominating people in practices and felt no pain.  But when they looked at his foot they weren't comfortable with the level of healing of the tissue around the bone and the concern was that if he reinjured it, it could limit the length of his career.   From what I understand, this is why they decided he should get a bone graft and why it took several weeks until embiid agreed to do it.  They wanted to prevent a Greg oden situation where they let the guy go out there 95% healed and put his long term health at risk.

So technically, he could have actually played.  But the second surgery was done with the hope of fully healing him so he could have a long and productive career.  There's been recent success with bone grafts for guys like Brook Lopez (2 seasons without a significant injury) and Kevin Durant (a game away from the NBA finals).
I'm so skeptical of any behind-the-scenes reporting of Philly but if there's any team in the league that's going to keep a player out last season out of respect for his long term health, it's Philly. Not because they care but because of the process. So it would make sense.

But verifying that for the purposes of trading for Embiid would be tough.

Well by this logic (which is absolutely sound), and their history of hiding injuries with guys they trade (Holiday), if the Sixers are willing to trade him we don't want him.

I think we're done here.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2016, 08:36:08 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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I'd rather take my chances with Embiid than Bender, personally. I think Philly would, too.

Embiid has the highest upside of anyone on Philly's roster. I doubt they trade him without seeing him on the court for real.

Unless we're using #3 for a trade for a close-to-star level player, Embiid is better than anything we would get at #3. I'll take the chance, why not? Is Bender more of a sure thing?
I agree with this.  If Embiid has a 5-20% chance of being a star, Bender has 0-5%.

But I'd still rather take a proven college player and pay it forward.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2016, 08:39:51 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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I mostly agree with LarBrd33 here (which is a rarity).  If you make this kind of deal, you're buying a lottery ticket with long odds.

If Embiid could stay healthy and was committed, he's a top center in the league.  No doubt in my mind.  The likelihood of that happening is maybe in the 5-20% range.  That's one heck of a gamble.  Personally, I'm not willing to take that kind of risk.  We're well-situated and we don't need to roll those dice.
Some might argue that being well situated (48 win team with double max cap space) affords us the luxury of taking this kind of risk.   We have two more Brooklyn picks coming.  If you can turn #3 into a high risk/high reward talent, it might be wise.   As opposed to just adding another low risk/low reward role player who isn't going to move the needle. 

I'm not sure if I'd actually offer #3 for embiid.  It definitely depends on what the other options are.  It doesn't matter much because I don't see this hypothetical happening. Sounds like philly is cautiously optimistic about embiid and still see him as a key piece.  And I doubt Boston would actually take on that risk (though ainge is a proven risk taker).  But I will say, if Boston actually did move #3 for embiid, I don't think my reaction would be horror.  I'd be on board with it pretty quickly.  I still think embiid has a real chance to be special.
There's definitely an argument for swinging for the fences on an embiid trade.  I agree.  Same premise Hinkie used to draft him.

Ironically, Bender is not a swing-for-the-fences type of pick.  His ceiling is rather low, with no standout skils, but I imagine he'll carve out a role as a bench player.  So, give the two options, I'd do an embiid deal.  Much rather have Okafor tho.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #53 on: May 29, 2016, 10:01:23 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I mostly agree with LarBrd33 here (which is a rarity).  If you make this kind of deal, you're buying a lottery ticket with long odds.

If Embiid could stay healthy and was committed, he's a top center in the league.  No doubt in my mind.  The likelihood of that happening is maybe in the 5-20% range.  That's one heck of a gamble.  Personally, I'm not willing to take that kind of risk.  We're well-situated and we don't need to roll those dice.
Some might argue that being well situated (48 win team with double max cap space) affords us the luxury of taking this kind of risk.   We have two more Brooklyn picks coming.  If you can turn #3 into a high risk/high reward talent, it might be wise.   As opposed to just adding another low risk/low reward role player who isn't going to move the needle. 

I'm not sure if I'd actually offer #3 for embiid.  It definitely depends on what the other options are.  It doesn't matter much because I don't see this hypothetical happening. Sounds like philly is cautiously optimistic about embiid and still see him as a key piece.  And I doubt Boston would actually take on that risk (though ainge is a proven risk taker).  But I will say, if Boston actually did move #3 for embiid, I don't think my reaction would be horror.  I'd be on board with it pretty quickly.  I still think embiid has a real chance to be special.

it seems fairly reasonable to expect that at least one of the players available at three will become more than just a solid NBA role player.

Of course there's risk involved in keeping the pick.  It's highly unlikely that more than one or two of those guys become stars.  It's also fairly likely that one or two turn into relative busts.

Personally, I want to see Danny keep the pick and take the guy who he likes the best out of that group.  I'm hoping that the guy he ends up liking best is the guy I like best, but if it's someone else, then so be it.

I loved Embiid's potential coming out of college, but right now he just seems like too big a risk.
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Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #54 on: May 29, 2016, 10:33:22 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 508

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Throw in Saric and we include pick 23 and I would do it.  Embiid is dominant and if he is healthy and focused he could transform the C's.  A huge risk, but a risk we can afford to take.  Saric could fill JJ's role to start and could become a starter moving Crowder to an AI role off the bench in the next year.
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Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #55 on: May 29, 2016, 10:52:08 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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Hell. No.

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Exactly what I said reading the thread title. How could you give up a top 5 pick for a guy that hasn't played basketball in over two years?

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #56 on: May 29, 2016, 11:50:41 PM »

Offline loco_91

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I can't believe this thread has gone 4 pages on such an absurd premise. The value of embiid is not as high as this. He was the 3rd pick when he was drafted because of injuries. His injury concerns have only been increased in the two years since he was drafted and he has had very limited basketball experience or training at the NBA level. To add to it even minor character concerns have been added with him cleaning out junk food on hotel trips, fighting with training staff and flying to Vegas against the teams wishes. How is the world does this make him of equal value to the 3rd pick in a draft two years later when his rookie contract is half gone. Maybe the Dallas pick would be fair but this would be an absurd trade with more than that.
Embiid almost went 1st in spite of his injury.  And that was believed to be a stronger draft than this.  If the top 9 prospects from 2014 were in this draft class, they might all go ahead of the guy who is going 3rd this year.  Hence why the idea exists. Fair or unfair, the perception of the players available at 3 are that none of them have star potential.

Exactly. I would have taken post-injury Embiid #1 in 2014, and I would trade either Wiggins or Parker for him even now (except for the information gap). If 2014 post-injury Embiid were in this year's draft, I'd take him #1 now, too.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #57 on: May 30, 2016, 01:19:01 AM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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I'd do the dallas pick. Really curious to see what Embiid does this summer and fall.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #58 on: May 30, 2016, 01:54:47 AM »

Offline #1P4P

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Are the 76ers placing Okafor and Noel on the trading block because of what they've seen in Embiid or is it because they have more value relative to Embiid?

We can assume that if they're willing to part with their 2 best players without seeing Embiid play in an NBA game it is because he has thoroughly demonstrated his ability in practices and scrimmages. You don't give up Noel and Okafor unless you're sure that, barring injury, Embiid is better than the others. Coming out of Kansas, Embiid looked great on both sides of the ball very much like Towns. Be will be 2 years older and stronger since then, the 76ers are rolling the dice that he's better than both even while not being as valuable as them at the moment.

If his medical records are clear, you make the trade.

Re: Would you trade #3 for Joel Embiid
« Reply #59 on: May 30, 2016, 02:15:50 AM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Are the 76ers placing Okafor and Noel on the trading block because of what they've seen in Embiid or is it because they have more value relative to Embiid?

We can assume that if they're willing to part with their 2 best players without seeing Embiid play in an NBA game it is because he has thoroughly demonstrated his ability in practices and scrimmages. You don't give up Noel and Okafor unless you're sure that, barring injury, Embiid is better than the others. Coming out of Kansas, Embiid looked great on both sides of the ball very much like Towns. Be will be 2 years older and stronger since then, the 76ers are rolling the dice that he's better than both even while not being as valuable as them at the moment.

If his medical records are clear, you make the trade.

Good points. I thought about this also...Perhaps Philly just doesn't like the character stuff from Noel (that story about him trashing the rented house/alleged death threat he made)...and Okafor run ins with the law too.
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