People keep targeting the wrong Philly big.

[alldaboston]

I'd love to have Noel, but #3 is also a stiff price for 1 year of control. Maybe if we could nab a shooter and trade on future picks in the following fantasy:

#3, #31 for #5 (Hield) + future 1st (Minnesota)
#23, BRK17 for Noel
Smart, #16, MIN1st, MEM1st, BRK18 <=> Cousins

Then we'd be potentially trotting out:
Thomas / Hield / Crowder / Cousins / Noel

That's a lot of scoring with IT/Hield/Cousins, and a lot of defensive potential as well with Bradley coming off the bench and Crowder/Cousins/Noel all very good defenders. Hield hopefully above average with time defensively. KO, Jerebko, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey off the bench with decisions to make on Sully and Turner.

Noel gets big money next summer, but he'll be on the lower scale and Cousins underpaid.

And of course this is real sexy:

Thomas / Hield / DURANT / Cousins / Noel

The Brooklyn 17 is gonna be even better than this year's pick. That class is stacked. Honestly, I would NEVER give ANY of the nets picks for a limited (and quite frankly, of little use for us) player like Noel.

[crimson_stallion]

No offense, but almost  any deal for Noel disgusts me. Especially when we include valuable assets. The guy doesn't move the needle whatsoever. He can't score. We need offense. And our defense is perfectly fine. 4th in the league with Isaiah,  sully,  and kelly playing big minutes.

Honestly, what good did our defense do us in the Atlanta series? Did it matter that much? We couldn't score, and we lost the series because of it. I'd much rather trade for Okafor than Noel.

We haven't watched the same Atlanta series.
Boston couldn't score because 3 of our best shooters where injured or haven't recovered.
Our offense were fine the entire season and should have been if we have stayed healthy.
Okafor is NOT Duncan and will never be, too many flaws.
I prefer Noel as well, more complete player. He can improve offensively.

We were one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA the entire season.  We tied for the 4th worst FG% (43.9%) and ranked 3rd worst outright in 3PT% (33.5%).   Yes, we had an overall decent, 10th-ranked Offensive Rating of 106.8 pts/100, but that disguises the fact that when Isaiah was off the floor, we had an ORtg of just 101 pts/100, which would be worse than the Lakers offense and better than only the Sixers.

So, no, our offense was not really fine the entire season.

Of course, I won't argue that reaching into the Sixers to find the offensive solution sounds very appealing.

I'm inclined at the moment to just keep the pick.

I think Okafor would help in this department.  When a decent pg, Ish Smith, was acquired, Okafor then shot 60%...that's excellent.

So I would think that IT with Okafor would be a dynamite combo.

I hope so. In any case, if we are getting a big from Philly, it should be Okafor, NOT Noel.

I disagree.

Noel is an excellent defensive player who's combination of length, leaping ability and lateral mobility allow him to guard almost every position on the court - this makes him a perfect fit for Boston's defensive schemes which centers heavily around the concept of guys being able to switch constantly.

Secondly, Noel is a solid rebounder.  He's not a standout rebounder by any means, but he rebounds as well as you expect a seven foot center rebound at.   

He's also got the potential to be able to contribute something on the offensive end.  I don't think he's ever going to be a good offensive player, but like DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler, I feel he has the potential to be a guy who can at least contribute as a double figure scorer off lobs, offensive rebounds, putbacks, etc. 

If you look at Noel's stats, he actually quietly improved in almost every statistical category last year.  On a Per 36 basis his scoring (11.6 to 13.7), rebounding (9.5 to 9.9), assists (1.7 to 1.8 ), steals (2.1 to 2.2) and FG% (46% to 52%) all improved.

The improvements mostly flew under the radar because all of the the attention was on Okafor as the shiny new rookie, but those offensive improvements (+2.1 points and +6% FG) and nothing to scoff at considering that nobody has ever seen Noel as a guy with much offensive potential.

By comparison, Okafor is a poor offensive player who has potential to become a good offensive player.  He's a major liability as a rebounder and as a defender however, and shows no potential to improve much in either of those two areas.


I don't think Okafor is ever going to be good enough offensively to carry the offence of a contender.  But I think Nerlens Noel is already good enough defensively to anchor the defence of a contender. 

Noel could easily slip in as out starting center right now, and hold that spot down for the next 10 years.  The only thing you'd need to ensure is that you always have an offensive minded PF who can stretch the floor playing alongside him.  That's not difficult at all given that offensive minded stretch fours are pretty much becoming the next "scoring PG" - they're everywhere. 

On the other hand Okafor is such a poor defender, such a poor rebounder, and has such limited range offensively, that it's almost impossible to find ANY player who can play alongside him and make up for his limitations.   Where are you going to find a mobile PF who can defend multiple positions, stretch the floor, and rebound at a high level?  Anthony Davis and Karl Anthony Towns are not walking through that door.

I'll take Noel over Okafor ANY day.

[crimson_stallion]

Rookie year stats for Noel vs Okafor...

Offensive Rating
Noel: 96
Okafor: 99

Defensive Rating
Noel: 99
Okafor: 110

Net Rating
Noel: -3
Okafor: -11

Offensive RPM
Noel: -4.85 (rank #82 our of 82 at position)
Okafor: -3.82 (rank #76 out of 77 at position)

Defensive RPM
Noel:+3.35 (rank #5 out of 82 at position)
Okafor: -1.39 (rank #76 out of 77 at position)

Net RPM
Noel: -1.5 (rank #55 out of 82 at position)
Okafor: -5.21 (rank #77 out of 77 at position)

Offensive Box Plus Minus
Noel: -2.7
Okafor: -2.6

Defensive Box Plus Minus
Noel: 4.5
Okafor: -1.5

Box Plus Minus
Noel: 0.8
Okafor: -4.1

Assist Rate:
Noel: 9.8%
Okafor: 8.2%

Turnover Rate
Noel: 16.2%
Okafor 12.5%

Free Throw Rate
Noel: 35.2%
Okafor: 24.8%

Rebound Rate
Noel: 14.3%
Okafor: 12.8%

Block Rate
Noel: 5.0%
Okafor: 2.9%

Steal Rate
Noel: 0.7%
Okafor 2.9%

Shooting Percentage 0-3 feet
Noel: 66.2%
Okafor: 67.5%

Shooting Percentage 3-10 feet
Noel: 28.8%
Okafor: 46.3%

Shooting Percentage 10-16 feet
Noel: 30.9%
Okafor: 35.3%

Shooting Percentage 16 < 3
Noel: 27.3%
Okafor: 27.4%


Looking at all of those statistics, Okafor managed to convincingly beat Noel in:
* Shooting 3-10 feet
* Shooting 10-16 feet
* Turnover rate

That's three out of some 19 categories in which Okafor actually put up better numbers then Noel in their respective rookie years.

The best part of all is that this is one comparison where Okafor fans cannot blame his team for the bad stats, since both guys played on the SAME shocking 76ers team.

[vjcsmoke]

I would gladly give up 16+23 plus a roster prospect for Noel.  He could be an elite defender at the 5 even if his offense never gets better.  He'd be like a more athletic Perkins for us.  But as people have mentioned #3 is an overpay. 

I'd rather draft Bender and then trade for Noel.  Our interior defense would be sickening.  Add that on top of our already elite perimeter defense and we would be suffocating other NBA offenses.  Two 7 footers.  Bender would provide the scoring and weakside/rotation defense.  Noel could concentrate more on ball defense and defensive rebounding.

[Irish Stew]

All those advanced stats are interesting and informative but, in the end, can't hide what the eyes plainly see: Okafor is an extremely talented interior offensive player who can create the kind of easy offense that the Celtics need and presently lack, while Noel is a strong defensive player but a bricklayer on offense. I prefer Okafor but will settle for Noel. What I love about this is that if we get Okafor, we have him for short money for the next three years before he becomes a restricted free agent. In fact, the total salary next year of four of our starters (Okafor, Bradley, Thomas, and Crowder) would be under $30 million, giving us incredible cap flexibility.

[BDeCosta26]

Legit post offense is more difficult to get in today's game.  Okafor's contract is longer.  Seems to me like targeting him over Noel makes sense.

Sure, in a vacuum it might make sense. We don't play basketball in a vacuum though. Okafor is the kind of player you have to design your entire team around offensively, and your entire defense has to be designed to hide him.

You could plug Noel right into this team tomorrow, and we'd jump from very good to elite defensively, without getting any worse offensively. The problem with Okafor is you just can't do that. Getting points out of Okafor is going to mean taking points away from IT, Crowder, Bradley, etc. When you factor in his poor defense and below average rebounding, the picture is clear.

Okafor is the kind of guy you really have to build your team around in order to get a positive contribution from, but he's just not good enough to justify doing that, nor does he project to be. You can't just plug him in Sully's spot, because then he'd be a fairly large negative overall.

[walker834]

What's interesting to me is what if Ainge just decides he doesn't want Okafor.  Media pressure in general like the celtics have to make a deal here is a bit much.   I don't think either guy is necessarily better than where we are drafting and a guy like smart or bradley. 

[crimson_stallion]

All those advanced stats are interesting and informative but, in the end, can't hide what the eyes plainly see: Okafor is an extremely talented interior offensive player who can create the kind of easy offense that the Celtics need and presently lack, while Noel is a strong defensive player but a bricklayer on offense. I prefer Okafor but will settle for Noel. What I love about this is that if we get Okafor, we have him for short money for the next three years before he becomes a restricted free agent. In fact, the total salary next year of four of our starters (Okafor, Bradley, Thomas, and Crowder) would be under $30 million, giving us incredible cap flexibility.

Steimsma was an elite shot blocker - one of the best in the entire league, probably.  But unfortunately that was about the only aspect of his defence that was above average - he struggled defending the perimeter, wasn't a great fundamental defensive player, wasn't a very good team defender, etc.  He was pretty much a one trick pony on defence, and although that one aspect of his defence was very impressive, on it's own it wasn't enough to be a game change. Ultimately what it meant is that Steimsma was a great shot blocker, but not a great defensive player.

I see Okafor's interior scoring as being a similar deal.  Okafor is an incredibly impressive interior scorer, but every other aspect of his offensive game is pretty medicore.  I think he's a great post scorer, but I don't think he's a great offensive player.

The thing with Noel's defence is that he's not just a one trick pony - he isn't just a shot blocker, for example.  He is extremely good at every single aspect of defence.  He is an outstanding defensive player in all regards, and only adds to that by also being a solid rebounder which means that he can finish off defensive plays by securing the rebound.  That's a whole package.

I also think that Noel has a better chance of becoming an acceptable offensive player then Okafor has of becoming an acceptable defensive player. 

Also there have been a number of teams in the past who have been contenders with a guy like Noel anchoring the defence.  The Mavs most recent championship team was a perfect example - Tyson Chandler transformed that team despite being incredibly limited offensively.  Chandler had a similar impact in New York when he first went there - he made that team much, much better.  Then you have guys like Mutombo, DeAndre Jordan (he's a key piece for the Clippers), etc.

How many teams have you seen reaching legit contender status with a guy like Okafor (i.e. a guy who's only talent is post scoring) in the starting lineup?   If you look at the teams with talented post-up bigs in recent years you can come up with a list of guys like:

* Tim Duncan
* Patrick Ewing
* Hakeem Olajuwon
* Shaq
* Andrew Bynum
* Pau Gasol

Every one of the guys I just listed was a two way player who not only dominated the post, but also had a huge impact on defence and on the boards.

The closest is probably Enes Kanter in OKC, but here are still key differences because:
1) Kanter is not actually starting for OKC
2) Kanter is a much more well rounded offensive player then Okafor
3) Kanter is an elite rebounder

Okafor's extremely one dimensional talent set is a very unique thing.  It's not really something we have pop up very often in the last 2-3 years. 

Even Al Jefferson was an above average rebounder, was at least half respectable defensively, and had a reliable jumper shot.

Historically, we have seen guys like Nerlens Noel excel in the NBA - even if they never became true stars, we've seen them carve out key roles on very successful teams.  I've never seen a guy like Okafor do that. 

Even Brook Lopez (probably the closest comparison to Okafor) has struggled to carry any of his teams deep into the playoffs. 

Big guys who rebound poorly and lack versatility (on both ends of the court) tend to not see that much success at the NBA level.  That doesn't mean Okafor is doomed to fail, but I think it's a legitimate concern none the less.  Especially when you factor in his advanced stats - which are some of the worst in recent years. 

[Celtics4ever]

Okafor would be a big upgrade over Sully.   Only in rebounds would he be less, and it is slight.   He shoots better and can score and block a shot or two.   He still is not a good defender.   I personally would rather have Nerlens, but I wager so would Philly.

[mctyson]

Philly has to move one or the other and I am leaning towards them moving Noel.  If Embiid is really coming back to play, he is a 5.  Okafor could then play the 4/5.

Noel doesn't pair with Okafor and he sure as hell won't pair with Embiid.  Drafting all these guys was really a poor move by Hinkie.  Noel's value is still high, but nowhere near as high as it was two years ago, or even prior to last season.

Noel is offensively challenged and you have to give serious pause before trading a top-3 pick for him.

[BDeCosta26]

Okafor would be a big upgrade over Sully.   Only in rebounds would he be less, and it is slight.   He shoots better and can score and block a shot or two.   He still is not a good defender.   I personally would rather have Nerlens, but I wager so would Philly.

I don't know about that, man. Sully is a very good mid-range shooter, always has been. Better than Okafor On the whole I'd say shooting wise. Plus, I don't think the rebounding edge is that slight. Sully has elite rebounding talent, he's just never had the stamina/minutes to put numbers up that properly reflect that. When you consider Sully is like 6'8, 6'9 and Okafor is 7 feet, you'd really hope Okafor could at least be above average.

In terms of sheer talent, he would be an upgrade. Okafor's low post skills are elite, and they're better than any skill Sully possesses. It's just that Sully can actually fit into a team that's not designed around featuring him. He doesn't get the credit he deserves as a passer, he's more than capable of moving around without the ball and finding open 18 footers when all else fails, he has low post skills himself, and he can occasionally step out and hit a 3. Defensively, he can man down the pain, body up guys like Okafor and Randolph while being able manage against some 4's. Sully has a lot of downside too, but he can fit into your offense as the 3rd or 4th guy and isn't going to hurt you too bad on D.

And that's the problem with Okafor. Okafor can't fit in as your 3rd or 4th guy. The lack of an outside shot of any type will kill your spacing if your not feeding him the ball in the post all the time, so in order to get a positive contribution from him, you have to take the ball out of the hands of your best play-maker. That might be okay if Okafor was a Gasol level passer and he could whip the ball around the perimeter for Thomas/AB/Crowder/KO every time the defense crashed in, but he can't. He's just not that good. He'll take on the double team trying to score first.

It always comes back to the same thing. If Okafor is on your team, you have to design your whole gameplay around him, and he's just not good enough to justify doing that when you have guys like Isaiah Thomas, Smart, Crowder and Co. On this team already. I don't want to change this team's identity for a guy who's that flawed.

[jambr380]

I honestly don't know that much about Okafor except for the few games I saw him in and what I hear around here, but I have no idea why people are so sure of themselves when they talk about him like he is a finished product.

I know you should always try your best, but playing in Philly had to suck after he was so used to winning and performing at an elite level all his life. Why are we so sure that he will never develop a consistent mid-range jumper or that he will always be a Kanter/Bargnani level defender? I hear 'a worse rebounding version of Al Jeff' a lot and it seems a little short-sighted to pigeonhole somebody so early.

[Big333223]

I'd rather draft Bender and then trade for Noel.  Our interior defense would be sickening.  Add that on top of our already elite perimeter defense and we would be suffocating other NBA offenses.  Two 7 footers.  Bender would provide the scoring and weakside/rotation defense.  Noel could concentrate more on ball defense and defensive rebounding.

This. Two 7-footers who can switch onto wings and protect the basket and one of them can shoot 3's. I love it.

[SHAQATTACK]

Okafor would be a big upgrade over Sully.   Only in rebounds would he be less, and it is slight.   He shoots better and can score and block a shot or two.   He still is not a good defender.   I personally would rather have Nerlens, but I wager so would Philly.

Agree .   Sully unless Devine intervention occurs , I'm afraid he is mentally too weak to make himself into a NBA star . 

Oakfor needs the discipline DA and the team could teach .  Basketball can be a good experience .  I think with good teammates and a more defined role he would develop into a poor mans Boogie