Author Topic: It's just that offense wins basketball games  (Read 15272 times)

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Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2016, 08:10:18 AM »

Offline mctyson

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and that's why we have to be careful not to overrate Marcus Smart (or anyone else for that matter).

You don't love Ben Simmons or Ingram because of their defense. Nor Buddy Heild nor Jamal Murray.

Nor Bird.

It's a nice bonus. But it's not what wins games. Curry isn't MVP because of his defense. Maybe it separates people.

But you take a guy like Harden with no defense whatsoever. I'd rather have Smart. Part of the reason is because Smart is way way cheaper.

But unfortunately, as much as I hate to admit it if you trade Harden straight up for AB or Smart next year we are instantly closer to a ring than if things stay like this.

Defense is wonderful. But offense wins games. There are rare exceptions, but usually even in those case defense is more of a tie breaker. You aren't usually really winning with defense. It's not like you're holding the other team to 70 points or something.

The 08 Celtics are a great example. Great defensive team. But if you reduce KG's offense by 10% and Ray Allen and Paul Pierces' by 15%, even if you increase their defense by 10% each or something you're not getting to the finals. You're not getting past the Hawks.

Big shots end more games than big blocks or steals. Maybe maybe maybe you could argue denying entry, getting a hand in the face, and boxing out ends more games. But that's why offensive players are more valuable.

So yes Marcus Smart is great. But him and Rozier for Lillard is a no brainer

But Portland would never do that.  Yes there are plenty of trades where giving up Marcus Smart alone makes sense.  Those trades will not happen though.

The real question is are you willing to part with Smart and draft picks AND the appropriate salary matching contracts (meaning we lose our starting Center, most likely) to make one of those trades happen? 

Smart is our most valuable young player on the roster.  Every team we engage on a trade will ask for our #3 pick this year and Smart as a starting offer.  Believe it or not, thats A LOT to give up for anyone that is not a current All-Star. 

So yeah - I agree that offense is great and that we need to get at least one more player who is great at it.  But understand the cost for something like that.  It could kill our future.


Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #31 on: June 01, 2016, 09:52:56 PM »

Offline Eja117

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Smart, Rozier, the #3 pick, and next year's Nets pick for Lillard would never happen.   

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2016, 09:54:38 PM »

Offline Eja117

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Somebody just mentioned in a different thread the incredible defense Smart played (against Milsap) in the playoffs.

Folks. Smart plays incredible defense most of the time. What he did with Milsap was off the charts incredible. I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it and didn't watch a lot of Smart.

The Celtics play incredible defense. It's great to watch.

But the Hawks won anyway. Because offense wins games.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2016, 10:43:20 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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It's a balancing act. Two way players with positional versatility are key.

Hence why Crowders emergence this year was vital to our success. He is an All-NBA level defender and became a consistent 15 PPG kind of player on O.

However, all teams have players who are better at one than the other. It's easier to find guys who are all offense no defense than the other way around.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #34 on: June 01, 2016, 10:43:27 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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I think what you're observing but misdiagnosing is that you can occasionally get a team of mediocre defensive individuals to play great team defense, but you can't get a team of mediocre offensive individuals to play great team offense.

So Damian Lillard or Kevin Love or James Harden can be "hidden" on D. But s guy who can't shoot, dribble, or pass completely detonates your team's ability to score points. There is a higher premium on transcendent offensive players rather than transcendent defensive players, because transcendent players can have make much more acute difference on that end of the floor.

With all of that said, there are players on the defensive side of the ball who raise their entire team's defensive level. We saw that with KG; his 2007 championship season you could conceivably say he was the MVP of the entire league, even though he wasn't even the best offensive player on his team.
He just elevated the whole team's defensive effort, intensity, communication, etc.

Russell was (from what I've heard) that way. He was the ultimate team player, a guy whose defensive effort made the team and gave it its identity.

So yes, trading one of the best defensive guards in the league (like Smart) for one of the best offensive ones (like Lillard). Is a no brainer. But don't be too quick to minimize the influence of these types of players. They are franchising changing in terms of defensive identity.
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Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #35 on: June 01, 2016, 10:48:36 PM »

Offline Eja117

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But what would have been the point of KG if he had averaged 9 ppg on 39% shooting? None whatsoever.

Offense wins games. Defense doesn't.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #36 on: June 01, 2016, 10:50:28 PM »

Offline Eja117

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It's great that Crowder can take a guy who scores 27 ppg and get him down to 17ppg while he himself goes from 15ppg to 12 points, but it turns out 17 points beats 12 points, so ....offense...wins...games.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #37 on: June 01, 2016, 11:14:33 PM »

Offline furball

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It's a mix of both (in every sport).  You can't suck at either.  If it's just offense then why did the Denver teams of Westhead era not dominate??  Why doesn't Mike D'Antoni have a handful of rings?  Or one?  Why didn't Sacramento, the third highest scoring team in the NBA this season, not even make the play-offs? 

At the end of the day you have to be able to keep teams from lighting it up and you have to be able to put up points.  If you suck on offense (like the Celtics) you cannot win.  If you suck on defense (like the Rockets) you cannot win. 

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #38 on: June 01, 2016, 11:29:53 PM »

Offline Eja117

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But in the game of basketball if you can have an incredibly good offensive player or an incredibly good defensive player you take the offensive player.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #39 on: June 02, 2016, 12:13:28 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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It's great that Crowder can take a guy who scores 27 ppg and get him down to 17ppg while he himself goes from 15ppg to 12 points, but it turns out 17 points beats 12 points, so ....offense...wins...games.

You do realize that simply repeating the same thing over and over again doesn't make it any more valid.

Also, Sacramento Kings.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #40 on: June 02, 2016, 12:17:24 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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It's great that Crowder can take a guy who scores 27 ppg and get him down to 17ppg while he himself goes from 15ppg to 12 points, but it turns out 17 points beats 12 points, so ....offense...wins...games.

Pretty sure you realize it is not this simple

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #41 on: June 02, 2016, 12:27:08 AM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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But in the game of basketball if you can have an incredibly good offensive player or an incredibly good defensive player you take the offensive player.

But the game of basketball isn't played by one player. Or two.

Lillard is an incredibly good offensive player, but he's not winning anything In the post season without a defense good enough to cover up his terrible D.  Hence the value of the Marcus Smart's, Avery Bradley's and Tony Allen's of the world, and the reason why LeBron James is one of the best players in the past 50 years.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #42 on: June 02, 2016, 02:05:18 AM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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Which is why the Sacramento Kings are sweeping away all before them enough route to a Champ...Oh wait
That has got to be the first time I have ever heard anyone suggest the Kings are some sort of offensive juggernaught.

They were league leaders in pace, and were scoring a ridiculously high number of points per game, only to ship them right back on worse than 76ers defense
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Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #43 on: June 02, 2016, 02:24:32 AM »

Offline kraidstar

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to win a title you need an elite defense and a couple elite scorers (guys who can scratch out points in the half court against same said elite defenses).

the grizz in recent years have had the D but not the scorers. no rings.

nash and amare had the suns playing elite O, but neither guy could guard a chair. no rings.

the warriors didn't do anything until draymond and iggy helped change the defensive culture.

you need guys who can dig in at both ends in crunch time, raising their level of play to a different tier. claiming it's just one or the other is absurd, and runs contrary to decades of evidence.

btw smart's ability to impact the game says a lot about the value of D - there's a reason he stays on the floor a lot. put some stud scorers around him and his value will be even more apparent (like bill russell or KG). the team talent level just isn't there yet.

Re: It's just that offense wins basketball games
« Reply #44 on: June 02, 2016, 02:59:52 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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How many championship teams have had a defence outside top 10 metrics? And how many have had an offense outside the top 10 metrics?

That's the easiest way to answer this question simplistically