Author Topic: What is IT4's intrinsic value?  (Read 4808 times)

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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2016, 01:21:50 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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Is 27, which for most players isn't bad, but as said above, short players don't play by the same rules.

Several people in this thread have re-iterated this sort of assertion:  That short players don't age as well as taller players.

I have found NO evidence to support this assertion and if anything, plenty that contradicts it.

I did a study some time back on this.  Here is what I found:

Here is the list of the 23 players who were 5-11 or shorter who actually played at least 6000 minutes in the NBA (that would be roughly 3 full time seasons, meaning that player was good enough to maybe become a regular rotation player at some point).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=6000&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none

The most important thing about this search, is that it shows that there have been very, very few ‘little guys’ who have been good enough to carve out real careers in the NBA. Just 23 names.

That means the statistics for any conclusions about how well they age are going to be based on very tiny numbers.

If you redo the search for height 6-0 or higher, you find that 1328 players have had careers with at least 6000 minutes. Quite a bit more, naturaly.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=30&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=pts_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp

Now, let’s do a slightly different search, which is for all the players 5-11 or shorter who are over age 30 and who played enough in at least one season to qualify for the leaderboards. What’s interesting about this list, is that there are 19 names on it.

That means that 19 (83%) of the 23 ‘short’ players who ever carved out any sort of career of just 6000 minutes managed to play at least one rotation-level season after age 30. And 7(30%) of the 23 managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you do the same search for players 6-0 or higher, you get 751 (57%) of the 1328 who managed to play at least one such season after age 30 and 334 (25%) who managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you look at the 'really short guys' -- 5' 9" or shorter -- it gets even more interesting, because there are only 10 such guys (including Isaiah and Nate who played this last year) and most of them played _very_ productively past age 30.

Conclusion: I don't see any real evidence that a 'little guy' is any more likely to age worse than a big guy.   If anything the data says the contrary.

Wow, fantastic post! Huge props! TP.

I really hope our Little Guy can continue to contribute meaningfully for the team for years to come.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2016, 01:50:53 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Quote
Is 27, which for most players isn't bad, but as said above, short players don't play by the same rules.

Several people in this thread have re-iterated this sort of assertion:  That short players don't age as well as taller players.

I have found NO evidence to support this assertion and if anything, plenty that contradicts it.

I did a study some time back on this.  Here is what I found:

Here is the list of the 23 players who were 5-11 or shorter who actually played at least 6000 minutes in the NBA (that would be roughly 3 full time seasons, meaning that player was good enough to maybe become a regular rotation player at some point).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=6000&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none

The most important thing about this search, is that it shows that there have been very, very few ‘little guys’ who have been good enough to carve out real careers in the NBA. Just 23 names.

That means the statistics for any conclusions about how well they age are going to be based on very tiny numbers.

If you redo the search for height 6-0 or higher, you find that 1328 players have had careers with at least 6000 minutes. Quite a bit more, naturaly.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=30&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=pts_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp

Now, let’s do a slightly different search, which is for all the players 5-11 or shorter who are over age 30 and who played enough in at least one season to qualify for the leaderboards. What’s interesting about this list, is that there are 19 names on it.

That means that 19 (83%) of the 23 ‘short’ players who ever carved out any sort of career of just 6000 minutes managed to play at least one rotation-level season after age 30. And 7(30%) of the 23 managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you do the same search for players 6-0 or higher, you get 751 (57%) of the 1328 who managed to play at least one such season after age 30 and 334 (25%) who managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you look at the 'really short guys' -- 5' 9" or shorter -- it gets even more interesting, because there are only 10 such guys (including Isaiah and Nate who played this last year) and most of them played _very_ productively past age 30.

Conclusion: I don't see any real evidence that a 'little guy' is any more likely to age worse than a big guy.   If anything the data says the contrary.

Granted I have used only a few players to base this off of, but around age 28-30 players begin to decline, and at a decent pace. A few examples of this are Travis Best, Nate Robinson, and Spud Webb. Granted there is always an exception to the rule, in this case Avery Johnson who was very valuable continuing into his mid to late 30s.

The focus isn't really whether or not IT4 will be able to be a "serviceable rotation player" past the ages of 28-30, but rather he can continue to be one of our core pieces. The arrival of IT has seemed to put some of the fan base and the front office into a win now mode. I am arguing that we may want to pump the brakes a little if our foundation piece (our superstar per se) is a smaller individual who is approaching this threshold. I am worried that we may make win now moves solely to try and compete in the next few years with Isaiah. This COULD turn into an unfortunate situation where IT is counted on to be one of the 2 or 3 main pieces for our next title run, yet he begins to have that decline after 30.

The list provided above of players may not really apply to ITs situation because his situation is so unique. Up until this point, someone of his stature really hasn't had the scoring rest entirely on his shoulders, so the circumstances surrounding their aging and ability to continue making it in the rotation is different. For example, say IT declines at age 29 to the point of still averaging 12 and 5 (not saying that would happen.) This would still be a type of player who could make it onto the floor and be serviceable, but our current trajectory as a franchise is resting on the fact that he can continue being a foundational piece.
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2016, 01:59:44 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I disagree with m5 on this one and I'll make a longer post to that effect later when I have a chance.

But I have posted multiple times elsewhere to the effect that it's hard to find examples of small scoring guards who lasted long after age 30 or so.

Two valid counterarguments that m5 pointed to are that the sample size is small and most guards fall off fast after age 30 regardless of height.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2016, 05:33:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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OK, check this out.

I went looking for players at guard who registered at least one season with 20+ minutes per game, 20%+ usage rate, and 16+ points per 36 minutes, during the 3 point era, at age 30 or older.

That's how I loosely define a "scoring" guard, i.e. not including guys who played predominantly as a facilitator.  I agree with others that IT's primary value to the Celts is as a scorer, so what we really care about is the prognosis for his ability to continue bringing that value to the table.



When you look at players who were listed at 5'11'' or shorter, only four names come up:*

- Calvin Murphy, who had 3 such seasons
- Chucky Atkins, Earl Boykins, and Damon Stoudamire, who each had one such season.

*Terrell Brandon had one season with at least 15+ points per 36 minutes.

When you look at players at guard or guard-forward listed at 6'0'' - 6'4'' (i.e. average guards, excluding more prototypical wing types like Kobe and Vince Carter), with otherwise the same criteria:

There are 61 different players who meet this criteria in at least a single season.

Nine players had at least five seasons meeting this criteria (ie five seasons age 30 or older).

Sam Cassell leads the list with 9 (!), followed by Ricky Pierce, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Jeff Hornacek, Allen Iverson, Gary Payton, Jason Terry, and Dwayne Wade (who will probably add a few more seasons before his career is done).



To me, that's fairly conclusive that bigger scoring guards last considerably longer than smaller ones, as a general rule.

That doesn't guarantee that Isaiah won't continue scoring at a good rate until he's 34 or 35.  It just means there are very few examples of guys who have done anything like that.  In fact, I think Calvin Murphy might be the only one.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2016, 05:44:44 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Tele Tubbie.     Or little IT  :)

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2016, 09:46:17 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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OK, check this out.

I went looking for players at guard who registered at least one season with 20+ minutes per game, 20%+ usage rate, and 16+ points per 36 minutes, during the 3 point era, at age 30 or older.

That's how I loosely define a "scoring" guard, i.e. not including guys who played predominantly as a facilitator.  I agree with others that IT's primary value to the Celts is as a scorer, so what we really care about is the prognosis for his ability to continue bringing that value to the table.



When you look at players who were listed at 5'11'' or shorter, only four names come up:*

- Calvin Murphy, who had 3 such seasons
- Chucky Atkins, Earl Boykins, and Damon Stoudamire, who each had one such season.

*Terrell Brandon had one season with at least 15+ points per 36 minutes.

When you look at players at guard or guard-forward listed at 6'0'' - 6'4'' (i.e. average guards, excluding more prototypical wing types like Kobe and Vince Carter), with otherwise the same criteria:

There are 61 different players who meet this criteria in at least a single season.

Nine players had at least five seasons meeting this criteria (ie five seasons age 30 or older).

Sam Cassell leads the list with 9 (!), followed by Ricky Pierce, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Jeff Hornacek, Allen Iverson, Gary Payton, Jason Terry, and Dwayne Wade (who will probably add a few more seasons before his career is done).



To me, that's fairly conclusive that bigger scoring guards last considerably longer than smaller ones, as a general rule.

That doesn't guarantee that Isaiah won't continue scoring at a good rate until he's 34 or 35.  It just means there are very few examples of guys who have done anything like that.  In fact, I think Calvin Murphy might be the only one.

During the shot clock era there have been 681 players who were between 6' and 6'4" and were listed as either guards or guard/forwards.  During that span there have been 55 players 5'11" or shorter.

5 out of 55 equals 9%.

61 out of 681 equals 9%.

The evidence doesn't seem all that conclusive when one considers the proportions involved.

Isaiah has already succeeded at an absolutely special level to be one of only 55 players in the modern era to play in the NBA at 5'11" or shorter.  Before even looking it up, I can almost guarantee that he is already, at twenty-seven, easily in the top 9% of the aforementioned small subset of individuals.

I like his chances of playing, and playing well, well into his thirties.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #21 on: May 26, 2016, 09:55:06 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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That's a solid point C18.

You may be right that Isaiah can be as much of an outlier among mighty mouse guards as Cassell is among bigger guards.

My counter is that I think being able to score like that at such a small size may already make a guy an outlier. The lesser talents at that size don't make it in the first place.

Bottom line for me, there's one example in the last forty plus years of a small guard lasting well beyond age 30, and even then only three seasons. So it's hard for me to believe Isaiah is going to be a major break from that trend.

I sure hope I'm wrong of course. I love IT and it'd be great to see him spend a decade in green. My position is just that the team should be prepared to get only a few more really good seasons from him.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #22 on: May 26, 2016, 10:18:11 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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That's a solid point C18.

You may be right that Isaiah can be as much of an outlier among mighty mouse guards as Cassell is among bigger guards.

My counter is that I think being able to score like that at such a small size may already make a guy an outlier. The lesser talents at that size don't make it in the first place.

Bottom line for me, there's one example in the last forty plus years of a small guard lasting well beyond age 30, and even then only three seasons. So it's hard for me to believe Isaiah is going to be a major break from that trend.

I sure hope I'm wrong of course. I love IT and it'd be great to see him spend a decade in green. My position is just that the team should be prepared to get only a few more really good seasons from him.

My prediction, based on looking at the small sample of successful small guards who have preceded him, is that he'll probably play at a top level until about 30 or 31.

That's about 4 or 5 top years left (maybe six or seven with really good luck).  The OP was suggesting he had 2 or 3 top years left.  That seems overly pessimistic.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #23 on: May 26, 2016, 10:27:39 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Let me just add that these are always the conundrum years with any good to great player.

Generally, players aren't ready to lead their teams to titles until they are in their late twenties, yet they generally start to decline in their early thirties.

Unless you can somehow work the magic fairy dust of the San Antonio Spurs and have guys waiting in the wings to take over at twenty-four who have learned how to win from guys in their mid to late thirties, your window is always going to be limited.  That's why the OKC Thunder, for example, really need to seize the opportunity they are being presented with right now, or their two stars could fade out without ever getting the big one, significantly tarnishing their long-term legacies. 

I've gone off topic, but I'm rooting for Durant and Westbrook.  Due's paid.  Time to reap the rewards.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #24 on: May 26, 2016, 11:54:18 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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If you think IT has until 30 or 31 that's 3 or 4 seasons. He turns 28 next season.

He has, what, two years left on his contract? The next contract is gonna be tough to get right. He will want a five year max but the last two or three years of that deal will probably be bad, maybe very bad.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #25 on: May 27, 2016, 12:02:23 AM »

Offline max215

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If you think IT has until 30 or 31 that's 3 or 4 seasons. He turns 28 next season.

He has, what, two years left on his contract? The next contract is gonna be tough to get right. He will want a five year max but the last two or three years of that deal will probably be bad, maybe very bad.

Do you think anyone else offers him a four year max? He loves Boston, and clearly wants to be here. I could see him doing 2 or 3+1 for below market value, maybe $18-20 million per year.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #26 on: May 27, 2016, 12:06:58 AM »

Offline GetLucky

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If you think IT has until 30 or 31 that's 3 or 4 seasons. He turns 28 next season.

He has, what, two years left on his contract? The next contract is gonna be tough to get right. He will want a five year max but the last two or three years of that deal will probably be bad, maybe very bad.

Do you think anyone else offers him a four year max? He loves Boston, and clearly wants to be here. I could see him doing 2 or 3+1 for below market value, maybe $18-20 million per year.

The scary thing is that the cap starts dropping after (2018?), which makes "below-market" contracts very tricky.

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #27 on: May 27, 2016, 12:45:49 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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If you think IT has until 30 or 31 that's 3 or 4 seasons. He turns 28 next season.

He has, what, two years left on his contract? The next contract is gonna be tough to get right. He will want a five year max but the last two or three years of that deal will probably be bad, maybe very bad.

He was twenty-six for the bulk of this season.  I'm still calling it a likely 4 or 5 top level seasons.  He'll probably have 2 or 3 good seasons after that playing a somewhat reduced role.

Is it worth the risk of re-signing him after his current contract is up?  I'm honestly not sure. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #28 on: May 27, 2016, 01:47:39 AM »

Offline alldaboston

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If you think IT has until 30 or 31 that's 3 or 4 seasons. He turns 28 next season.

He has, what, two years left on his contract? The next contract is gonna be tough to get right. He will want a five year max but the last two or three years of that deal will probably be bad, maybe very bad.

Do you think anyone else offers him a four year max? He loves Boston, and clearly wants to be here. I could see him doing 2 or 3+1 for below market value, maybe $18-20 million per year.

The scary thing is that the cap starts dropping after (2018?), which makes "below-market" contracts very tricky.

Yeah I'm confused about that. Why did they plan to raise the cap so much, only to bring it down again?
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about