College Experience vs. NBA Sucess

[BitterJim]

WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AHEAD

Now that the biggest warning is out of the way, here's what this is: A very quick look at how a players experience in college translates to NBA success (as defined by the number of all star games they have played in their careers thus far)

Some issues with the data:

• No one in the past 3 drafts has made an all star game (yet), which may skew the numbers
• I've only looked at the past 10 years (2006 draft to 2015)
• The sample size is really small
• Just looking at All Star games isn't a great measure of NBA success, and rates a borderline all star the same as a total bust

Now that those are out of the way, here are the main findings:


As you can see, among top 10 picks, Freshman are most likely to be picked, and have the second most all star games/player (helped especially by Kevin Durant's 7).  Surprisingly, however, Sophmores rate best by this metric (helped a lot by Westbrook and LMA with 5 each).  Juniors rate the worst, although given the sample sizes for them and seniors, it is really meaningless.  For international players, things don't look good, but, again, it's a small sample size, so you can't really draw any conclusions from it.  There's also the Enes Kanter category for players who were ruled ineligible to play in the NBA but didn't go overseas

So what can we conclude from this?  Not a whole lot.  The sample sizes are pretty tiny, and the numbers are all pretty close.  If anything, it can help to settle the "Freshman vs. Senior" debate by saying that it doesn't really seem to matter (although teams clearly like taking Freshmen more)

Take the best prospect, it's all a crapshoot anyway

(Thank you LooseCannon for the idea, and if any wants to go through the data/add to it, feel free.  I can send you the excel file I used as well.)

[max215]

I had this theory a while back that point guards who spent more time in college wound up as better NBA players than those who left quickly. I conducted a similar investigation to you, classifying point guards as "elite, good, above average, average, below average, and bad." Ultimately, my results were pretty inconclusive; there was too much noise. That's what I think the problem here is too. If I had to pinpoint one issue with your findings, it's that the numbers are distorted by great players. Kevin Durant was drafted as a freshman in 2007, and has since made 7 All-Star games. Kevin Durant is one great player who came out as a freshman, but in your chart, he's seven great players. Put Durant with a group of 9 scrubs, and according to your methodology, there are 7 All-Stars, but in reality, there are 9 busts and one legend. TP for compiling this info, though.

[jpotter33]

Is that # of All Star Games? Wouldn't it be more accurate to compare # of actual All Stars rather than # of games/appearances? I feel that the superstars who are perennial all-stars, like Durant and Westbrook, ultimately skew that number a bit. Then you'd actually see what percentage of each class turns out to be All-Star caliber.

Perhaps you'd get more interesting results that way.

[RebusRankin]

I'd rather see a look at how many individual players made at least one ASG in each category.

Looking at say Freshman, you have Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond from the 2012 draft, Kyrie Irving from 2011, John Wall and Demarcus Cousins from 2010, Demare DeRozan and Jrue Holiday from 2009, Derric Rose and Kevin Love from 2008 and Durant from 2007. That's 10 guys over 9 drafts.

Seniors have Brandon Roy (2006), Roy Hibbert (2008), Jimmy Butler (2011). Lillard and Dray Green in 2012. That's 5 guys over 10 drafts.

Thus one could argue that it does matter since freshman are twice as likely to become all-stars.

[chilidawg]

I'd rather see a look at how many individual players made at least one ASG in each category.

Looking at say Freshman, you have Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond from the 2012 draft, Kyrie Irving from 2011, John Wall and Demarcus Cousins from 2010, Demare DeRozan and Jrue Holiday from 2009, Derric Rose and Kevin Love from 2008 and Durant from 2007. That's 10 guys over 9 drafts.

Seniors have Brandon Roy (2006), Roy Hibbert (2008), Jimmy Butler (2011). Lillard and Dray Green in 2012. That's 5 guys over 10 drafts.

Thus one could argue that it does matter since freshman are twice as likely to become all-stars.

But freshman are drafted in the lottery at a much higher rate than seniors.  It's really a meaningless comparison.

[RebusRankin]

Draft position isn't what gets you to the ASG.

The point that can be made is that freshman are more attractive as they often have a higher ceiling.