Author Topic: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender  (Read 28989 times)

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Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #150 on: May 27, 2016, 05:28:32 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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I like the controversy this potential pick is causing.  Sounds like half the room would boo a Bender pick, and the other half would cheer.  What we do know is that the scouts are saying the sky is the limit for Bender.  For a man of his size, he has the highest upside in the entire draft.  At age 16 he went up against Porzingis and apparently dominated a guy who was at the time 1.5 years older and is now one of the top young big men in the NBA.

Here's a pretty cool discussion between Chad Ford and Pelton.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.
Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.
Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.
His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)
As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).


According to statistical analysis, Pelton projects Bender to have a 3.5 WARP, second only to Ben Simmons in this year's draft.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4kpfrf/pelton_is_bender_a_better_prospect_than_porzingis/
So many layers of abstraction.  You take a game like basketball.  You can't adequately describe performance with just points, rebounds and assists, but it measures about half the game.  It gives you a rough idea.  Then you make composite stats that combine these basic stats in arbitrary ways.  If you have a high FG%, you'll have a high PER, and so on.  Then you translate composite statistics directly to wins.  That's clever.  Your model is leaking like the Titanic by now, but carry on.  Then you project it years into the future, and just for icing on the cake, apply it to European kids who have never started a game.

I don't think anyone, ESPECIALLY Pelton, would argue that this prediction in going to be fact.  Nothing will accurately predict how a player will develop and adapt to the NBA.  Not scouts (as you pointed out earlier), not stats, and definitely the opinion of a fan.

But here's the thing:  This model wasn't put together arbitrarily, as you seem to suggest.  It's created based on real-life players (empirical data).  It's never gonna be perfect (nothing is), but it's another tool in the tool chest

At this point, scouts and advanced stats seem to agree that he'll probably be a pretty good player in the league.  Could they be wrong?  Of course, but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's not that crazy to think that it just might be a duck
I understand how models work.  Of course they're not factual.  When you have a model that is dead wrong as often as it is right, it ceases to have value.  As in, it has ZERO value.  It is as likely to grossly misinform your decision as it is to aid you.

Any model that claims to project the future NBA production of kids who play sparingly overseas is such a model.

Sure.  Scouts are wrong more often then they're right.  Models are wrong more often than they're right.  So should we just ignore the and not talk about the draft? Or just go off of nothing?

It's entirely possible that all the scouts and stats are wrong. But that doesn't mean that they're useless: if they were, they wouldn't be used. 

The draft is a crapshoot, and it always will be.  In the absence of some better analysis solution, I tend to listen to the draft experts and advanced stats.  It may steer me wrong, but just ignoring everything will, too
Nah, that's not what I meant.  I meant this specific model is crap and it's useless at worst and N/A at best.

e.g. How many points, rebounds and assists did a player put up?  OK, that's useful.  It's a guideline.  Oh, you say Bender rode pine all year on a veteran team so his numbers aren't representative?  OK, that's fine too.  I buy it.  I guess basic stats and modeling won't work for Bender.

But when a guy comes with a model that projects Bender's 4 points and 2 rebounds into NBA production, that's just BS.  Translated NBA Winning Percentage?  Better than Porzingis?  Gimme a break.  I promise you there is no model based on game stats that can reliably predict the "winning percentage" of an end-of-the-bench European player who scores 4 points.

If you want to talk to me about a model for Kris Dunn and Denzell Valentine's output based on hundreds of college games, OK.  I'm listening.

Im starting to think you hate Bender more than anything you have ever hated in life. I wonder when you will spread a little of the hate to other players.
Haha.  I don't hate Bender, the person.  I wish him the absolute best on the Lakers!

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #151 on: May 27, 2016, 05:35:36 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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I like the controversy this potential pick is causing.  Sounds like half the room would boo a Bender pick, and the other half would cheer.  What we do know is that the scouts are saying the sky is the limit for Bender.  For a man of his size, he has the highest upside in the entire draft.  At age 16 he went up against Porzingis and apparently dominated a guy who was at the time 1.5 years older and is now one of the top young big men in the NBA.

Here's a pretty cool discussion between Chad Ford and Pelton.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.
Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.
Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.
His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)
As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).


According to statistical analysis, Pelton projects Bender to have a 3.5 WARP, second only to Ben Simmons in this year's draft.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4kpfrf/pelton_is_bender_a_better_prospect_than_porzingis/
So many layers of abstraction.  You take a game like basketball.  You can't adequately describe performance with just points, rebounds and assists, but it measures about half the game.  It gives you a rough idea.  Then you make composite stats that combine these basic stats in arbitrary ways.  If you have a high FG%, you'll have a high PER, and so on.  Then you translate composite statistics directly to wins.  That's clever.  Your model is leaking like the Titanic by now, but carry on.  Then you project it years into the future, and just for icing on the cake, apply it to European kids who have never started a game.

I don't think anyone, ESPECIALLY Pelton, would argue that this prediction in going to be fact.  Nothing will accurately predict how a player will develop and adapt to the NBA.  Not scouts (as you pointed out earlier), not stats, and definitely the opinion of a fan.

But here's the thing:  This model wasn't put together arbitrarily, as you seem to suggest.  It's created based on real-life players (empirical data).  It's never gonna be perfect (nothing is), but it's another tool in the tool chest

At this point, scouts and advanced stats seem to agree that he'll probably be a pretty good player in the league.  Could they be wrong?  Of course, but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's not that crazy to think that it just might be a duck
I understand how models work.  Of course they're not factual.  When you have a model that is dead wrong as often as it is right, it ceases to have value.  As in, it has ZERO value.  It is as likely to grossly misinform your decision as it is to aid you.

Any model that claims to project the future NBA production of kids who play sparingly overseas is such a model.

Sure.  Scouts are wrong more often then they're right.  Models are wrong more often than they're right.  So should we just ignore the and not talk about the draft? Or just go off of nothing?

It's entirely possible that all the scouts and stats are wrong. But that doesn't mean that they're useless: if they were, they wouldn't be used. 

The draft is a crapshoot, and it always will be.  In the absence of some better analysis solution, I tend to listen to the draft experts and advanced stats.  It may steer me wrong, but just ignoring everything will, too
Nah, that's not what I meant.  I meant this specific model is crap and it's useless at worst and N/A at best.

e.g. How many points, rebounds and assists did a player put up?  OK, that's useful.  It's a guideline.  Oh, you say Bender rode pine all year on a veteran team so his numbers aren't representative?  OK, that's fine too.  I buy it.  I guess basic stats and modeling won't work for Bender.

But when a guy comes with a model that projects Bender's 4 points and 2 rebounds into NBA production, that's just BS.  Translated NBA Winning Percentage?  Better than Porzingis?  Gimme a break.  I promise you there is no model based on game stats that can reliably predict the "winning percentage" of an end-of-the-bench European player who scores 4 points.

If you want to talk to me about a model for Kris Dunn and Denzell Valentine's output based on hundreds of college games, OK.  I'm listening.

Im starting to think you hate Bender more than anything you have ever hated in life. I wonder when you will spread a little of the hate to other players.
Haha.  I don't hate Bender, the person.  I wish him the absolute best on the Lakers!


Are you sure? You have me fooled

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #152 on: May 27, 2016, 11:40:35 PM »

Offline PaulP34

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him. This move could mean one of two things.

1 They are scouting and signing the buyout with 100% confidence he's going to fall to them at 3.

2 They are scouting him to see what his value would be via trade.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #153 on: May 28, 2016, 12:57:55 AM »

Offline loco_91

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I don't really like Nowitzki or especially Love as comps. Best superstar comp imo, if you must make one, is Draymond Green. Obviously their bodies are way different but their skill sets are reasonably similar.

Well that's a scary comp since this Bender guy will most likely not share Green's handle or foot speed. So he's basically going to be a role player? So far all I keep hearing is 3 and D. Unfortunately the Celtics need a scorer.

How is this a negative comp? Draymond is a top 10 player. Draymond minus a bit of athleticism and plus 6 inches of height would be an exceptionally good outcome. I would pick that player #1 in a heartbeat. I don't think Bender will be that good, but it's a compelling upside comp.
Bender plays smaller than Draymond.  They have the same wingspan and Bender can't jump and is slower.  3 and D.  With average D.
Bender has 6 inches on Draymond in standing reach, which is more important.  And that was last year, when Bender was 17.
Draymond is 6'7" and plays like he's 7'1".  Bender is 7'1" and plays like he's 6'7".

Now I've seen it all. Bender bashers will literally spin "6 inch taller Draymond Green" as a bad thing.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #154 on: May 28, 2016, 01:23:04 AM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him. This move could mean one of two things.

1 They are scouting and signing the buyout with 100% confidence he's going to fall to them at 3.

2 They are scouting him to see what his value would be via trade.

It's also likely they are scouting him because they are still not sold on him. If they were, then the visit(s) would not be unnecessary. 

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #155 on: May 28, 2016, 01:52:30 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him.
And if you were serious, you'd probably learn to spell his name?
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #156 on: May 28, 2016, 02:45:02 AM »

Offline tankcity!

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I don't really like Nowitzki or especially Love as comps. Best superstar comp imo, if you must make one, is Draymond Green. Obviously their bodies are way different but their skill sets are reasonably similar.

Well that's a scary comp since this Bender guy will most likely not share Green's handle or foot speed. So he's basically going to be a role player? So far all I keep hearing is 3 and D. Unfortunately the Celtics need a scorer.

How is this a negative comp? Draymond is a top 10 player. Draymond minus a bit of athleticism and plus 6 inches of height would be an exceptionally good outcome. I would pick that player #1 in a heartbeat. I don't think Bender will be that good, but it's a compelling upside comp.
Bender plays smaller than Draymond.  They have the same wingspan and Bender can't jump and is slower.  3 and D.  With average D.
Bender has 6 inches on Draymond in standing reach, which is more important.  And that was last year, when Bender was 17.
Draymond is 6'7" and plays like he's 7'1".  Bender is 7'1" and plays like he's 6'7".

Now I've seen it all. Bender bashers will literally spin "6 inch taller Draymond Green" as a bad thing.

You clearly didn't read what I said...How is he like Draymond Green. Green is faster, more physical, and is light years ahead in ball handling. It's a terrible comp. Bender plays like a guard. That's a fact. I am in no way criticizing the player, which let's be honest is more than fair since he hasn't performed on the court.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #157 on: May 28, 2016, 03:08:37 AM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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I don't really like Nowitzki or especially Love as comps. Best superstar comp imo, if you must make one, is Draymond Green. Obviously their bodies are way different but their skill sets are reasonably similar.

Well that's a scary comp since this Bender guy will most likely not share Green's handle or foot speed. So he's basically going to be a role player? So far all I keep hearing is 3 and D. Unfortunately the Celtics need a scorer.

How is this a negative comp? Draymond is a top 10 player. Draymond minus a bit of athleticism and plus 6 inches of height would be an exceptionally good outcome. I would pick that player #1 in a heartbeat. I don't think Bender will be that good, but it's a compelling upside comp.
Bender plays smaller than Draymond.  They have the same wingspan and Bender can't jump and is slower.  3 and D.  With average D.
Bender has 6 inches on Draymond in standing reach, which is more important.  And that was last year, when Bender was 17.
Draymond is 6'7" and plays like he's 7'1".  Bender is 7'1" and plays like he's 6'7".

Now I've seen it all. Bender bashers will literally spin "6 inch taller Draymond Green" as a bad thing.

You clearly didn't read what I said...How is he like Draymond Green. Green is faster, more physical, and is light years ahead in ball handling. It's a terrible comp. Bender plays like a guard. That's a fact. I am in no way criticizing the player, which let's be honest is more than fair since he hasn't performed on the court.

So you'd say it's fair to say that Bender plays undersized for a physical forward yet lacks the athleticism of a wing, right? And he lacks explosiveness, agility, elusiveness and quickness off the bounce?  Is Bender not a threat to shake his defender off the dribble and you think he has minimal upside? And also that he's vulnerable defending quicker guards on the perimeter?

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/draymond-green

 ;D

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #158 on: May 28, 2016, 07:14:16 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
So you'd say it's fair to say that Bender plays undersized for a physical forward yet lacks the athleticism of a wing, right? And he lacks explosiveness, agility, elusiveness and quickness off the bounce?  Is Bender not a threat to shake his defender off the dribble and you think he has minimal upside? And also that he's vulnerable defending quicker guards on the perimeter?

A lot of the vids, I saw him beat his man, and do nothing when he did or miss a shot.  He is mobile, I saw a lack of lift.   This is a highlight video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IffAjKkyPBE

The defense in these videos is a joke.   How can you be confident after watching them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS-x4J1OZ8E

These are his highlight videos,  if you see an athletic guy in these, then I think a trip to Lenscrafters is in order.

The kid does have a nice looking shot but is noways near NBA athletic ability.   Most of our 18 year olds are much more athletic.  Draymond Green has more toughness in his big toe, I wager than Bender does in his whole body.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #159 on: May 28, 2016, 07:20:55 AM »

Offline ederson

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him. This move could mean one of two things.

1 They are scouting and signing the buyout with 100% confidence he's going to fall to them at 3.

2 They are scouting him to see what his value would be via trade.

His son went to Israel .... So what ??? DA scouted Giannis personally ......

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #160 on: May 28, 2016, 03:36:56 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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I sit here wondering why all the fuss about Bender. I've even posted some good things about him even though I'm not sold on drafting him. Some of the negatives have been rehashed numerous times, not very athletic, not aggressive enough, his defense and rebounding against bigs is quite suspect, etc. Yes, he has his positives too. Although, nothing that screams out at you.

So, many of us are intrigued. But why? There are a lot of 7 footers in the NBA and yet, for some reason there is something different about Dragan. What is it? 

This is what I think it could be. It may be that he is taller than his announced 7'1". Yes, taller. I don't have any evidence of this. It's purely speculation on my part from watching him on the court. In my opinion he seems to take up a lot more space than his listed height.

We've recently seen 7 footers in Boston, e.g., Kelly, KG, Tyler Zeller and Colton Iverson. In my opinion they all appear to be significantly shorter than Dragan. I don't believe it's because we see him on the court with shorter players than those found in the NBA. Even when I watch him dunk. He's hardly getting off the floor and he's at the rim. Most of the other players I mentioned above seem to have jump higher to get there.

Maybe I'm off base....anyone feel he might be taller than 7'1"? Could that be part of his mystique? 

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #161 on: May 28, 2016, 03:46:27 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him. This move could mean one of two things.

1 They are scouting and signing the buyout with 100% confidence he's going to fall to them at 3.

2 They are scouting him to see what his value would be via trade.

His son went to Israel .... So what ??? DA scouted Giannis personally ......

DA is not the type of person to make the same mistake twice  ;)

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #162 on: May 29, 2016, 07:29:07 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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I don't really like Nowitzki or especially Love as comps. Best superstar comp imo, if you must make one, is Draymond Green. Obviously their bodies are way different but their skill sets are reasonably similar.

Well that's a scary comp since this Bender guy will most likely not share Green's handle or foot speed. So he's basically going to be a role player? So far all I keep hearing is 3 and D. Unfortunately the Celtics need a scorer.

How is this a negative comp? Draymond is a top 10 player. Draymond minus a bit of athleticism and plus 6 inches of height would be an exceptionally good outcome. I would pick that player #1 in a heartbeat. I don't think Bender will be that good, but it's a compelling upside comp.
Bender plays smaller than Draymond.  They have the same wingspan and Bender can't jump and is slower.  3 and D.  With average D.
Bender has 6 inches on Draymond in standing reach, which is more important.  And that was last year, when Bender was 17.
Draymond is 6'7" and plays like he's 7'1".  Bender is 7'1" and plays like he's 6'7".

Now I've seen it all. Bender bashers will literally spin "6 inch taller Draymond Green" as a bad thing.
Bender has nothing in common with Draymond, apart from being a 3 point shooter.  Other than that, I'd say he's the anti-Draymond.  Soft defense, no intangibles, disappears for long stretches, poor rebounder for his size.  Draymond is one of the last players I would ever compare him to.

Again, my comp was Omri Casspi or Travis Outlaw.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #163 on: May 29, 2016, 07:30:22 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Well if Danny Ainge wasn't serious about drafting Dragon Bender then he wouldn't have taken his son to Isreal to scout him. This move could mean one of two things.

1 They are scouting and signing the buyout with 100% confidence he's going to fall to them at 3.

2 They are scouting him to see what his value would be via trade.
I thought they were scouting Luwawu.

Re: If Ainge picks Dragon Bender
« Reply #164 on: May 29, 2016, 08:00:26 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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I don't really like Nowitzki or especially Love as comps. Best superstar comp imo, if you must make one, is Draymond Green. Obviously their bodies are way different but their skill sets are reasonably similar.

Well that's a scary comp since this Bender guy will most likely not share Green's handle or foot speed. So he's basically going to be a role player? So far all I keep hearing is 3 and D. Unfortunately the Celtics need a scorer.

How is this a negative comp? Draymond is a top 10 player. Draymond minus a bit of athleticism and plus 6 inches of height would be an exceptionally good outcome. I would pick that player #1 in a heartbeat. I don't think Bender will be that good, but it's a compelling upside comp.
Bender plays smaller than Draymond.  They have the same wingspan and Bender can't jump and is slower.  3 and D.  With average D.
Bender has 6 inches on Draymond in standing reach, which is more important.  And that was last year, when Bender was 17.
Draymond is 6'7" and plays like he's 7'1".  Bender is 7'1" and plays like he's 6'7".

Now I've seen it all. Bender bashers will literally spin "6 inch taller Draymond Green" as a bad thing.
Bender has nothing in common with Draymond, apart from being a 3 point shooter.  Other than that, I'd say he's the anti-Draymond.  Soft defense, no intangibles, disappears for long stretches, poor rebounder for his size.  Draymond is one of the last players I would ever compare him to.

Again, my comp was Omri Casspi or Travis Outlaw.

What are we basing this on? He hardly saw the floor last year.