5.) He is a legitimate 7'1" at 18 years old and may even grow taller. He also has elite length which is a very good predictor of future success. Even with that, he seems to be growing into his body pretty well, although he is a little slow laterally.
This is hogwash.
Huh so I just went down quite the rabbit hole and I now agree that wingspan shouldn't be too heavily relied on, but it's still kind of inconclusive.
So basically, there are a ton of articles out there that say that wingspan is a pretty good indicator of whether or not someone will be good in the NBA. For example:
http://www.si.com/vault/2012/11/05/106252287/the-case-for--wingspanIt basically says that someone with a bigger wingspan will have an advantage over players that are taller, but with smaller wingspans. It also says that players with longer wingspans on average have better NBA careers.
HOWEVER, I found this really interesting article here:
http://www.si.com/edge/2016/05/11/nba-draft-combine-results-measurements-vertical-jump-valueWhich says:
So what numbers can we use to predict NBA success? A 2014 study conducted by psychologists Jerad Moxley and Tyler Towne tried to answer that question by reviewing the performances of over 300 NBA Combine invitees from 2001-06. The researchers were interested in whether performance in the NBA is predicted by physical makeup and athleticism while factoring in prior basketball performance. To test the theory that physical size and athleticism are markers of yet to be realized potential, the researchers investigated a number of variables, including age, college performance, player position, college quality, height, agility, no-step vertical leap, arm span, and weight.
From there the researchers tried to predict success in the first three years of NBA performance, a critical period in a young player’s career. The results? Even though physical size and athleticism predicted draft order, the only variables that predicted NBA success were college quality, college performance, and youth.
The study concludes, “To clarify, our argument is that these physical characteristics have already contributed to achievement and training opportunities by the time the player reaches the NBA and thus does not differentiate player class at the professional level.”
The bottom line: if possessing those skills and physical size made a player effective in college, then he was more likely to be productive at the next level. Simply possessing great athleticism—the idea of "upside"—without a prior record of performance wasn’t good enough.So, it says that wingspan isn't a great predictor, but specifically because the advantages were already implied in their pre-NBA numbers, so they will just have the same advantage again in their NBA career. It also says that the three best indicators for NBA success are pre-NBA production (not great), strength of their club or college team (Maccabi would almost certainly beat every other team that someone being drafted this year is on) and youth (Bender is the youngest player in the draft). So he excels at two of those indicators if you can even call them that.