If Ainge picks Dragon Bender

[PickNRoll]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

As noted above, Ingram could easily be a defensive liability at the next level and still be worthy of the number 2 pick due to his tremendous scoring potential, if Bender is a defensive liability at the next level it will, barring something incredible, mean he is a bust.

You are taking Benders "Strengths" page if you will and comparing it to Ingrams "Weaknesses" page.

Look bottom line is everyone has strengths and weaknesses and you cant pick and choose what you want to pay attention to with one guy and not pay attention to with others.

It's obviously OK to discount Poeltl's 3 point shooting, Biyombo's assist numbers, Ryan Anderson's shot blocking, and so on.  If you're deciding between a Ferrari and a Lambo, you don't need to compare gas mileage.  It's irrelevant.

[PickNRoll]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Newsflash.  Scouts don't pick anyone; GM's do.

Man, I really have to explain this?  Scouts inform GM's and GM's make the pick.  Presumably, they use the information and insight provided by the scouts.  Otherwise, why have scouts.  As a collective, they are often wrong.

[clevelandceltic]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

Sorry if I offended you.  Just telling you how I see it.  Maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe you're wrong.  Otherwise, what's the fun in discussing it?  Nothing personal.

We both could be wrong I get that. What Im saying is that its not to apply one standard to one player and not another. I understand your position on Bender but what Im saying is I dont think you are applying the same standard to all players.

When I look at Bender and Ingram they are both light and get pushed around. If neither gains strength they both will have problems however I think the lack of strength will impact Ingram more because he isnt as quick laterally or running the floor as Bender. Bender is a better passer as well.

This is what I do know about both. Bender has gotten taller and bigger each of the last 3 years. He is still growing into his body. Ingram is still just light as he was last year so I have to wonder when his body will get bigger vs Bender whose gotten bigger and taller.

This is not to say I think Bender is a better prospect. Its simple to say that I think his floor is not as low as you make it out to be. They both have issues and Im not going to just sit back and not mention the good and bad with every player. All Im asking for is greater objectivity with all players instead of just banging on Bender all day.

[kozlodoev]

5.) He is a legitimate 7'1" at 18 years old and may even grow taller.  He also has elite length which is a very good predictor of future success.  Even with that, he seems to be growing into his body pretty well, although he is a little slow laterally.

This is hogwash.

[nickagneta]

I have seen some of the physical measureables and some scouting reports and if this kid can toughen up underneath a bit, I could see him becoming a Chris Bosh like player, though maybe more like the three point shooting Chris Bosh.

I have very little opinion on him. He seems to have as much potential as anyone else available at #3 but maybe that's just because I have seen so little of his play because I refuse to watch Maccabi footage just to see his 10 MPG or so.

If Ainge takes him I have to believe Ainge either:

1. Couldn't get a trade done for a star and thought Bender was the BPA at #3 and so took him or

2. Believes he is more valuable and hence, better long term for the Celtics, than anyone available to Ainge in a trade.

Either way I will trust Ainge.

[clevelandceltic]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

As noted above, Ingram could easily be a defensive liability at the next level and still be worthy of the number 2 pick due to his tremendous scoring potential, if Bender is a defensive liability at the next level it will, barring something incredible, mean he is a bust.

You are taking Benders "Strengths" page if you will and comparing it to Ingrams "Weaknesses" page.

Look bottom line is everyone has strengths and weaknesses and you cant pick and choose what you want to pay attention to with one guy and not pay attention to with others.

It's obviously OK to discount Poeltl's 3 point shooting, Biyombo's assist numbers, Ryan Anderson's shot blocking, and so on.  If you're deciding between a Ferrari and a Lambo, you don't need to compare gas mileage.  It's irrelevant.

What do any of those things have to do with what we are talking about? Does Ingram have to do more than shoot? Yes. Does he have to defend? Yes. Does he have to rebound? Yes but not as much as Bender. If all Ingram ends up being is a shooter then that's a waste of a pick correct? So why not talk about other aspects of his game?

[droopdog7]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Newsflash.  Scouts don't pick anyone; GM's do.

Man, I really have to explain this?  Scouts inform GM's and GM's make the pick.  Presumably, they use the information and insight provided by the scouts.  Otherwise, why have scouts.  As a collective, they are often wrong.

You think I don't know that Sherlock?

The scouts provide information to GM's about prospects.  I believe they do a very good job on their evaluations.  I'm going to go ahead and take the scout's view of Bender's skill set as accurate and yours and probably completely inaccurate.

Now does that mean bender will be a great player?  No because things are a lot more complex that evaluating skill sets.  One much also  project, not just because of age (but also team circumstances).  No two prospects are the same and ultimately, it is the GM that has to decide between a young player with upside versus a more established player (for instance).  The scouts don't make these decisions.

[droopdog7]

When comparing clips of Dragan Bender to clips of other euro players who were 19 or 20 at the time, keep in mind that Bender turned 18 in November 2015.  Most of the videos of him were from the early part of that season when he was 17 or the previous season when he was 16/17.  He stopped playing for Croatia when he went to Israel so in any video of him playing for Croatia he’s 15 or 16.  Here are two clips of him playing in December 2015.    He started getting more playing time after the team fired their coach for not playing him.  He’s still raw but he’s only a moth into age 18 in the clips and he’s playing pro ball against adults.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYQ5TIbVsy4  (20/12/15 - 15 Points!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO-2M2XkP4k (31/12/15 - 16 Points!)

Seriously.  Look at that skill set.  He looks like KO but with quickness and athleticism...at 18 years of age.

DA needs to pick this guy.

[Evantime34]

I have seen some of the physical measureables and some scouting reports and if this kid can toughen up underneath a bit, I could see him becoming a Chris Bosh like player, though maybe more like the three point shooting Chris Bosh.

I have very little opinion on him. He seems to have as much potential as anyone else available at #3 but maybe that's just because I have seen so little of his play because I refuse to watch Maccabi footage just to see his 10 MPG or so.

If Ainge takes him I have to believe Ainge either:

1. Couldn't get a trade done for a star and thought Bender was the BPA at #3 and so took him or

2. Believes he is more valuable and hence, better long term for the Celtics, than anyone available to Ainge in a trade.

Either way I will trust Ainge.

TP! This is how I feel as well.

It's important to point out that Ainge has more information than us. Just because we don't have enough info to make a good decision doesn't mean that Ainge also lacks information. I don't have a definitive opinion on Bender, but if Ainge likes him enough to pick him that will be good enough for me.

[Vermont Green]

I have to admit, I am warming up to the idea of Bender.  You just can't expect much from him for the first year, maybe even 2 or 3 years.  But by then, he will be only 21.

Will he be worth the wait?  I would still prefer Okafor who would contribute immediately but Bender may be better in the end maybe but how much better?  It is also possible that Bender is never as good as Okafor is right now.  Who  really knows.  Okafor may have a little less upside than Bender based on Bender being only 18 but Okafor still has tons of upside potential too.

It is hard to imagine what Okafor would have done on that team in Israel when he was 17/18 (the case for Bender).  We know what he did at Duke when he was 18/19 and what he did in the NBA when he was 19/20 and both were pretty darned good.  Very hard to compare these two players.  Very hard to project how good Bender is/will be.

[PickNRoll]

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Really?  Your assessment of Bender's defensive potential runs contrary to that of professional scouts:

Part of what makes Bender such a high-level prospect is that in addition to his high offensive skill level, he is a versatile and impactful player on the defensive end. Like on offense, he’s not great at one thing in particular but he’s an above average interior and perimeter defender for his size.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMxs6mhWSIE&feature=youtu.be

Of course the scout notes that Bender needs to improve his strength to become an effective post defender but he continues on to say:

Bender has the lateral quicks to be a devastating switch all screens level of defender, but refinement in his defensive fundamentals is necessary for him to get there. Either way, he should be a good defender in pick and roll situations with the ability to hedge and recover well or switch if his teammate needs it. Bender’s combination of small forward type mobility as a 7-footer with shot blocking instincts makes him an enticing defensive prospect.

Source:
http://upsidemotor.com/2015/08/17/dragan-bender-kristaps-porzingis-fiba-scouting-report-crotia-2016-nba-draft/

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Here's an exercise.  How about you put up your big board for the entire draft this year and then we'll judge your hit rate.

Yes, scouting is not a perfect science.  But I am going to guess that those employed to do the job will be significantly better at it than some random internet dude.

Challenge accepted!  Of course, it'll take a very long time to get the results, the exact method of grading can be hazy, and we'll all have forgotten this in 3 years.    It does sound like a fun game to play with friends if you have a lot of patience.  Would need some rules.

[billysan]

 – via Twitter AdamHimmelsbach
Adam Himmelsbach: Hearing that Dragan Bender has told the Celtics he’d come to Boston for a workout sometime after his Israeli League season ends.

Probably already posted but we (Celtics Staff) may be able to see first hand if this kid is really as good as they say. Better than using YouTube video.

The good news is Ainge is doing due diligence and can put him through a workout against a real live NBA bigman if he does come. I'll bet its a private meeting though. too bad we cant at least see video

[PickNRoll]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

As noted above, Ingram could easily be a defensive liability at the next level and still be worthy of the number 2 pick due to his tremendous scoring potential, if Bender is a defensive liability at the next level it will, barring something incredible, mean he is a bust.

You are taking Benders "Strengths" page if you will and comparing it to Ingrams "Weaknesses" page.

Look bottom line is everyone has strengths and weaknesses and you cant pick and choose what you want to pay attention to with one guy and not pay attention to with others.

It's obviously OK to discount Poeltl's 3 point shooting, Biyombo's assist numbers, Ryan Anderson's shot blocking, and so on.  If you're deciding between a Ferrari and a Lambo, you don't need to compare gas mileage.  It's irrelevant.

What do any of those things have to do with what we are talking about? Does Ingram have to do more than shoot? Yes. Does he have to defend? Yes. Does he have to rebound? Yes but not as much as Bender. If all Ingram ends up being is a shooter then that's a waste of a pick correct? So why not talk about other aspects of his game?

You said you can't pick and choose which strengths to pay attention to and which to discount.  Yes you can.  You have to.

[PickNRoll]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Newsflash.  Scouts don't pick anyone; GM's do.

Man, I really have to explain this?  Scouts inform GM's and GM's make the pick.  Presumably, they use the information and insight provided by the scouts.  Otherwise, why have scouts.  As a collective, they are often wrong.

You think I don't know that Sherlock?

The scouts provide information to GM's about prospects.  I believe they do a very good job on their evaluations.  I'm going to go ahead and take the scout's view of Bender's skill set as accurate and yours and probably completely inaccurate.

Now does that mean bender will be a great player?  No because things are a lot more complex that evaluating skill sets.  One much also  project, not just because of age (but also team circumstances).  No two prospects are the same and ultimately, it is the GM that has to decide between a young player with upside versus a more established player (for instance).  The scouts don't make these decisions.

You're the one posting the snarky newsflash as though anyone doesn't know that.

[vjcsmoke]

I like the controversy this potential pick is causing.  Sounds like half the room would boo a Bender pick, and the other half would cheer.  What we do know is that the scouts are saying the sky is the limit for Bender.  For a man of his size, he has the highest upside in the entire draft.  At age 16 he went up against Porzingis and apparently dominated a guy who was at the time 1.5 years older and is now one of the top young big men in the NBA.

Here's a pretty cool discussion between Chad Ford and Pelton.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.
Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.
Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.
His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)
As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).

According to statistical analysis, Pelton projects Bender to have a 3.5 WARP, second only to Ben Simmons in this year's draft.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4kpfrf/pelton_is_bender_a_better_prospect_than_porzingis/