If Ainge picks Dragon Bender

[PhoSita]

His buyout is, I believe, 1 million.  It's not much.  Should not at all be an impediment to him coming over right away.  That's my understanding from what I've read.

From the scouting and analysis I've read about his game, you should picture somebody kind of like Kirilenko on defense and kind of like a rich man's Jonas Jerebko on offense ("Good" Jonas anyway, like we saw in the playoffs).

Wow!! Do you remember what prime Kirilenko was like on defense?  If this kid is like Kirilenko defensively, sign me up.

This is precisely why he's projected to go top 3.

Hopefully his career is longer than AK. Andrei declined early and fast.

I've seen the video clips, I've read about the sub thirty inch vertical.  One thing I'm almost 100% certain Dragan Bender is not is an athletic freak like Andrei Kirilenko.

Well he may never have a nine percent block rate and a three percent steal rate but I think the potential is there for a similar defensive role and impact given that he's taller and could play four and five.

[clevelandceltic]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

[BitterJim]

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Really?  Your assessment of Bender's defensive potential runs contrary to that of professional scouts:

Part of what makes Bender such a high-level prospect is that in addition to his high offensive skill level, he is a versatile and impactful player on the defensive end. Like on offense, he’s not great at one thing in particular but he’s an above average interior and perimeter defender for his size.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMxs6mhWSIE&feature=youtu.be

Of course the scout notes that Bender needs to improve his strength to become an effective post defender but he continues on to say:

Bender has the lateral quicks to be a devastating switch all screens level of defender, but refinement in his defensive fundamentals is necessary for him to get there. Either way, he should be a good defender in pick and roll situations with the ability to hedge and recover well or switch if his teammate needs it. Bender’s combination of small forward type mobility as a 7-footer with shot blocking instincts makes him an enticing defensive prospect.

Source:
http://upsidemotor.com/2015/08/17/dragan-bender-kristaps-porzingis-fiba-scouting-report-crotia-2016-nba-draft/

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

I'd love to see how often you are wrong as well.  I can guarantee that your success rate is well below 50%, and I'd be willing to bet that it's much lower than most pro scouts

[mahcus smaht]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ive yet to watch a full game of bender's. If you have seen 20-30 then I should probably defer to your evaluation a bit, but I have to say I disagree with you. He is definitely fast in running the floor. he is not quite as quick laterally and the notion that he could stay with some of the quicker small forwards in this league certainly seems farfetched to me. Your comment about first step, I think is not that Bender lacks quickness, and more that bender lacks fundamentals and is easily shaken with simple dribble moves. I would assume this is a fixable problem. His lateral quickness I would say is good, and his recovery speed and ability to run the floor is closer to great. from watching him, he reminded me of a far less explosive KG (not that hed reach that level). As for intangibles and bbiq etc. I havent seen nearly enough to make a good judgement, but everything Ive read just gushes over his work ethic intensity and feel for the game. I would be rather suprised if all these scouts were wrong and you were able to glean greater insight into his character and intangibles based on a youtube clips. I dont mean to demean you by saying that either, these scouts have had the luxury of watching him in practice and in workouts, where much of character is revealed. This is simply not a luxury you have.

[PickNRoll]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

[mahcus smaht]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

[PaulP34]

One conclusion I came to reality with was, Dragon Bender (if successful) in 3 years is much better then what we have on the court right now at that position. So I guess it would be nothing but a positive drafting him. If he doesn't fit on our team then I'm sure someone will think he fits on theirs and we would probably get equal or more value for him through a trade. I'm just praying this works out.

[mahcus smaht]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Presumably you are referring to Hield vs. Bender here, but looking at last years draft you had Mudiay, Hezonja, Porzingis and Turner all fitting the 18-19 year olds with upside but no proven production profile. Contrast them with the finalists for the Wooden Award: Kaminsky (the winner), Okafor (Scouts liked him plenty, he went 3rd, above all those guys above), Deangelo Russell (same story as above but went 2nd), Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, Delon Wright.

So,

Porzingis (4) Hezonja(5), Mudiay (6) Turner (11 ) you can throw Booker and Lyles in too, at 12 and 13

vs.

Kaminsky, Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, and Delon Wright.

Ill take 18 year olds with potential for 400 Alex.

[PickNRoll]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ive yet to watch a full game of bender's. If you have seen 20-30 then I should probably defer to your evaluation a bit, but I have to say I disagree with you. He is definitely fast in running the floor. he is not quite as quick laterally and the notion that he could stay with some of the quicker small forwards in this league certainly seems farfetched to me. Your comment about first step, I think is not that Bender lacks quickness, and more that bender lacks fundamentals and is easily shaken with simple dribble moves. I would assume this is a fixable problem. His lateral quickness I would say is good, and his recovery speed and ability to run the floor is closer to great. from watching him, he reminded me of a far less explosive KG (not that hed reach that level). As for intangibles and bbiq etc. I havent seen nearly enough to make a good judgement, but everything Ive read just gushes over his work ethic intensity and feel for the game. I would be rather suprised if all these scouts were wrong and you were able to glean greater insight into his character and intangibles based on a youtube clips. I dont mean to demean you by saying that either, these scouts have had the luxury of watching him in practice and in workouts, where much of character is revealed. This is simply not a luxury you have.

No, I have no problem with his character.  He seems like a great kid.  When I say intangibles, I mean plays that don't show up in the box score.  "Marcus Smart points", if you will.  How is his feel for the game?  Does he set good picks?  Is he aware of his job?  Does he anticipate actions before they happen?  Is he processing the game in real time?  Does he have a good feel for when to help, when to rotate, when to hedge, how far to close out, when to sag off?  Does he fight for position early and win position battles?  Take advantage of mismatches?   Impact plays where he doesn't score?  Make teammates better?  Make hustle plays?  Use energy wisely?  Out think or out work his opponent?  And so on.

No, no and no, with a couple maybes.  Some guys get it, some don't.  His effort is good.  His instincts are BAD.  His physicals are sorta middling.

[ssspence]

I love how it's a unspoken rule / requirement to compare European players to other European players.

'3 cups AK-47, mixed with 1 cup Schrempf, 1 cup Jerebko, add in a table spoon of Pau, a dash of Sasha Vujecic and a sprinkle of Jiri Welsh and THAT's Bender.'

Is it legal to compare him to, ya know, Americans?

[PickNRoll]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

[byennie]

I love how it's a unspoken rule / requirement to compare European players to other European players.

'3 cups AK-47, mixed with 1 cup Schrempf, 1 cup Jerebko, add in a table spoon of Pau, a dash of Sasha Vujecic and a sprinkle of Jiri Welsh and THAT's Bender.'

Is it legal to compare him to, ya know, Americans?

You realize it's a developmental thing and not racial, right? These euro players come out of the same leagues against the same competition, and yes, have a generally different style of basketball. Show me the American comp for Bender that's more accurate and that would be a great addition to the conversation, rather than just complaining about it.

[clevelandceltic]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Presumably you are referring to Hield vs. Bender here, but looking at last years draft you had Mudiay, Hezonja, Porzingis and Turner all fitting the 18-19 year olds with upside but no proven production profile. Contrast them with the finalists for the Wooden Award: Kaminsky (the winner), Okafor (Scouts liked him plenty, he went 3rd, above all those guys above), Deangelo Russell (same story as above but went 2nd), Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, Delon Wright.

So,

Porzingis (4) Hezonja(5), Mudiay (6) Turner (11 ) you can throw Booker and Lyles in too, at 12 and 13

vs.

Kaminsky, Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, and Delon Wright.

Ill take 18 year olds with potential for 400 Alex.

I wonder how many scouts, GMs, and coaches would take Heild over Booker cus Heild has been putting up numbers longer?

[PickNRoll]

I love how it's a unspoken rule / requirement to compare European players to other European players.

'3 cups AK-47, mixed with 1 cup Schrempf, 1 cup Jerebko, add in a table spoon of Pau, a dash of Sasha Vujecic and a sprinkle of Jiri Welsh and THAT's Bender.'

Is it legal to compare him to, ya know, Americans?

I guess I'm guilty too because my comp for him is Omri Casspi, but if I had to pick Americans...

probably Travis Outlaw, Scott Padgett or Walt Williams

[byennie]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

So in other words, you are smarter than NBA GMs. Let me guess, you were high on Deandre Jordan, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green? And were never high on a young player that busted? And never underrated an 18 year old who ended up a star? Confirmation bias is a blast.