If Ainge picks Dragon Bender

[clevelandceltic]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

[clevelandceltic]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

So in other words, you are smarter than NBA GMs. Let me guess, you were high on Deandre Jordan, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green? And were never high on a young player that busted? And never underrated an 18 year old who ended up a star? Confirmation bias is a blast.

No he is so much smarter that he would turn down a GM job because he wouldnt want to show up the rest of the idiots in the league because he sees things they dont.

[Ilikesports17]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

As noted above, Ingram could easily be a defensive liability at the next level and still be worthy of the number 2 pick due to his tremendous scoring potential, if Bender is a defensive liability at the next level it will, barring something incredible, mean he is a bust.

You are taking Benders "Strengths" page if you will and comparing it to Ingrams "Weaknesses" page.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Here are the pros for Bender:

1.) When he plays in U18 games, he is dominant.  For example: http://www.fiba.com/news/World-is-Bender-s-oyster-for-dominant-Croatia-at-U18-Euros (and there are other examples!).  So he was one of the best players in the world in the 18 and under age group, but 2 years ago when he was 16.  He has gotten better since then.  *A note that might go against him, but might also just be him looking after his family: he refused to play in the 2015 U18 tourney because he is personally under contract with Adidas and the Croatian team is under contract with Nike.  They would have made him wear Nike and potentially hurt his endorsement deal, so he dropped out.

2.) He had a flurry of minutes in March and April where he looked like a rotation player in professional games.  Note that this is after much of the negative information being posted about him.

3.) His rebounding in U18 and in that flurry of minutes was very good.  This was a weakness last year that he worked on and then was able to improve in even professional games.  His rebounding isn't really a weakness anymore and it shows he can improve his skills.

4.) He can legitimately shoot 3s

5.) He is a legitimate 7'1" at 18 years old and may even grow taller.  He also has elite length which is a very good predictor of future success.  Even with that, he seems to be growing into his body pretty well, although he is a little slow laterally.

6.) Super hard worker & has good character

7.) His defense has some holes in it, but he has good help defense already.  He has 7'2" length and nobody can shoot over him. 

8.) He has a pretty good handle

Anyways, I feel that our team is not going to be an ECF/Title Threat for about 3 or 4 years at least.  At that point, our Brooklyn pick players are going to hopefully be the focal point of the team (although probably not Young).  So Murray is probably the best pick for us, because he is the most likely to be the best player in about 3 years out of the guys we might draft (also including Bender, Hield and Brown). 

I do feel though that the player with the highest ceiling is Bender.  He could be a 5 out center raining 3s on people that nobody could shoot over if he put some weight on.  He could be a very interesting SF if he can get his lateral defense down.  If he got a face up game and a mid range shot, I mean....

I don't think that the IT/Bradley/Crowder core is going to do much more than we did this year.  Maybe we can win a 1st round series, but we're going to need some real talent to compete, even in the East.  This would be a swing for the fences type move, but it could actually work.

[PickNRoll]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Presumably you are referring to Hield vs. Bender here, but looking at last years draft you had Mudiay, Hezonja, Porzingis and Turner all fitting the 18-19 year olds with upside but no proven production profile. Contrast them with the finalists for the Wooden Award: Kaminsky (the winner), Okafor (Scouts liked him plenty, he went 3rd, above all those guys above), Deangelo Russell (same story as above but went 2nd), Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, Delon Wright.

So,

Porzingis (4) Hezonja(5), Mudiay (6) Turner (11 ) you can throw Booker and Lyles in too, at 12 and 13

vs.

Kaminsky, Wiltjer, Tuttle, Brogdon, and Delon Wright.

Ill take 18 year olds with potential for 400 Alex.

No, I wasn't referring to Hield.  I was referring to drafts from the past 30 years.

Last year's draft wasn't nearly as confusing as you're making it.  Mudiay had obvious NBA athleticism.  Hezonja was a sharpshooter and good athlete, medium risk.  Porzingis was a wildcard due to limited info.  I had him 5th but viewed him as very risky.  Turner was an elite shot blocker in college and I liked him for that exact reason.  Kaminsky was zero-risk of bust, low-medium upside. Okafor a surefire starter in the league.  Russell was controversial, but I liked the Laker's gamble.  Wiltjer obviously was going to have trouble with NBA athletes.  Tuttle was never considered an nba prospect that I remember.  Brogdon wasn't on my radar.  Wright had a really shake jumper that's gonna be tough to fix.  Lyles and Booker were both great at KY, clearcut lottery picks.  I liked Lyles more than most people.

In hindsight, I sold Porzingis short.  I was a little too optimistic about Russell (I still like him a lot) and Kaminsky.  I also didn't like the purported Winslow trade.  I'm not suggesting a hard and fast rule where college awards trump everything.  It's ok to apply common sense.
 

[PickNRoll]

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Really?  Your assessment of Bender's defensive potential runs contrary to that of professional scouts:

Part of what makes Bender such a high-level prospect is that in addition to his high offensive skill level, he is a versatile and impactful player on the defensive end. Like on offense, he’s not great at one thing in particular but he’s an above average interior and perimeter defender for his size.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMxs6mhWSIE&feature=youtu.be

Of course the scout notes that Bender needs to improve his strength to become an effective post defender but he continues on to say:

Bender has the lateral quicks to be a devastating switch all screens level of defender, but refinement in his defensive fundamentals is necessary for him to get there. Either way, he should be a good defender in pick and roll situations with the ability to hedge and recover well or switch if his teammate needs it. Bender’s combination of small forward type mobility as a 7-footer with shot blocking instincts makes him an enticing defensive prospect.

Source:
http://upsidemotor.com/2015/08/17/dragan-bender-kristaps-porzingis-fiba-scouting-report-crotia-2016-nba-draft/

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

I'd love to see how often you are wrong as well.  I can guarantee that your success rate is well below 50%, and I'd be willing to bet that it's much lower than most pro scouts

I should hope so.  It's their full time job.  I'm just a fan.

[CoachBo]

The abject desperation to elevate Bender into a top 5 pick on this board reaches a new level.

LOL.

[clevelandceltic]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

As noted above, Ingram could easily be a defensive liability at the next level and still be worthy of the number 2 pick due to his tremendous scoring potential, if Bender is a defensive liability at the next level it will, barring something incredible, mean he is a bust.

You are taking Benders "Strengths" page if you will and comparing it to Ingrams "Weaknesses" page.

No it doesnt. That's an assumption. You are basically saying his O wont get any better at any point of his career and you know this for a fact.

And if you are talking about Ingram if he doesnt get bigger all he is is a shooter. PERIOD. He doesnt finish strong at the rim. He doesnt explode at all at the rim.

Look bottom line is everyone has strengths and weaknesses and you cant pick and choose what you want to pay attention to with one guy and not pay attention to with others.

The difference between Ingram and Bender is that we know Ingram has one elite skill in shooting. We dont know that about Bender. For that reason I would take Ingram over Bender but lets no act like Ingram currently offers anything more than that.

[PickNRoll]

... then I'm guessing we'll be bending dragons.

Also, if anyone thinks Bender is anything like Gasol, they probably have no idea what type of player Gasol was at a similar age. The clip below shows a 19-year old Pau Gasol playing in the Spanish league finals (that would be the last series of one of the strongest basketball leagues in Europe):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZETQoe-0U

Well, considering that Gasol was born July 1980 and that game took place just about a month prior to his 20th birthday, I don't think you can say they're at "similar age". Especially when Bender doesn't turn 19 until late in the year.

To put that in perspective, Bender won't be the age Gasol was in the video until we're playing pre-season games getting ready for the 17-18 season. Things change so much in terms of player development when players are so young that who's to say he doesn't surpass Gasol at the same age?

Really splitting hairs now.  Bender is 18.  Gasol was 19. 

These comps have me flummoxed.  What do you call a guy who shoots 3's, plays small and has no post game?  Pau Gasol!  What do you call a guy with poor lateral mobility who also has difficulty defending the post and shows limited defensive aptitude?  Andrei Kirilenko!

What planet am I on?

When Gasol was 18 his scout report/stats are really similar to Benders. Also he has trouble defending the post largely due to a lack of strength which could presumably be overcome via the weight room, but everything else you say about his defense seems to fly in the face of everything I've read about Bender

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Ladies and gentlemen, Brandon Ingram should no longer be considered a top prospect because these are the same problems he has.

To be fair, Brandon Ingram is being touted primarliy as an elite scorer whos primary weakness would be defense.

Bender is being touted as primarliy an elite defender.

Ingram is better than Bender in literally every way.  He can create his own shot.  He's quicker, better handle, better shooter, tougher (even tho they're both skinny),plays smarter, more fluid.  People are seriously underselling his defensive ability and potential as well.  His length and athleticism are disruptive.  He's a better defender right now than Bender.

Ok dude you win. No one knows anything except for you. I dont even know why you spend your time trying to explain things to us because we just clearly arent on your level. You know EVERYTHING. I see a skinny guy in Ingram who guys go right past but he recovers due to length and I say in time he could get better. You see him do the exact same thing and say he is going to be great. Bender does the exact same thing and you say he is borderline awful. Why dont we just move on to another player and you can show us how much smarter you are than the rest in the room.

Sorry if I offended you.  Just telling you how I see it.  Maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe you're wrong.  Otherwise, what's the fun in discussing it?  Nothing personal.

[BitterJim]

The abject desperation to elevate drop Bender into from a top 5 pick on this board reaches a new level.

LOL.

FTFY

[ssspence]

I love how it's a unspoken rule / requirement to compare European players to other European players.

'3 cups AK-47, mixed with 1 cup Schrempf, 1 cup Jerebko, add in a table spoon of Pau, a dash of Sasha Vujecic and a sprinkle of Jiri Welsh and THAT's Bender.'

Is it legal to compare him to, ya know, Americans?

You realize it's a developmental thing and not racial, right? These euro players come out of the same leagues against the same competition, and yes, have a generally different style of basketball. Show me the American comp for Bender that's more accurate and that would be a great addition to the conversation, rather than just complaining about it.

relax -- you're not going to win the noble prize for blogging by educating me about Euro leagues because I made a joke.

meanwhile, who said anything about race? and is it reeeeally so hard to compare video of Bender to players who didn't come through Europe?

example:

Bender A case: Chris Bosh
Bender B+ case: Luol Deng
Bender B case: Ryan Anderson / Channing Frye
Bender C+ case: Kelly Olynyk
Bender C case: John Henson / Gorgui Dieng
Bender D case: Spencer Hawes

bottom line: you've never even seen the guy play. heck, his own teammates don't even see him play that much. so acting like you've pinpointed a difference in him that makes him more likely to be Detlef Schrempf than Channing Frye is just pure conjecture anyway...

[OldSchoolDude]

When comparing clips of Dragan Bender to clips of other euro players who were 19 or 20 at the time, keep in mind that Bender turned 18 in November 2015.  Most of the videos of him were from the early part of that season when he was 17 or the previous season when he was 16/17.  He stopped playing for Croatia when he went to Israel so in any video of him playing for Croatia he’s 15 or 16.  Here are two clips of him playing in December 2015.    He started getting more playing time after the team fired their coach for not playing him.  He’s still raw but he’s only a moth into age 18 in the clips and he’s playing pro ball against adults.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYQ5TIbVsy4  (20/12/15 - 15 Points!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO-2M2XkP4k (31/12/15 - 16 Points!)

[Fafnir]

Man people are going to lose it if that happens, more so than domestic draft picks for sure.

[droopdog7]

If you have time just watch the games.  There are probably 20-30 on YouTube, some of them linked in this thread.  His defense is squarely between "below average" and "trainwreck".  Physically, he edges toward average, mostly due to his length.  Developmentally, it is not pretty.  You can literally see him thinking and not in a good way.  Nothing comes naturally.  His lateral mobility and leaping are poor.  His base and core strength are very poor.  First step is poor.  Unable to cut off driving lanes.  Average recovery speed.  Not an impactful weak side shot blocker.  Poor rebounding and box out technique.  Not an intangibles guy. Basically, the exact opposite of Andrei Kirilenko.

Really?  Your assessment of Bender's defensive potential runs contrary to that of professional scouts:

Part of what makes Bender such a high-level prospect is that in addition to his high offensive skill level, he is a versatile and impactful player on the defensive end. Like on offense, he’s not great at one thing in particular but he’s an above average interior and perimeter defender for his size.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMxs6mhWSIE&feature=youtu.be

Of course the scout notes that Bender needs to improve his strength to become an effective post defender but he continues on to say:

Bender has the lateral quicks to be a devastating switch all screens level of defender, but refinement in his defensive fundamentals is necessary for him to get there. Either way, he should be a good defender in pick and roll situations with the ability to hedge and recover well or switch if his teammate needs it. Bender’s combination of small forward type mobility as a 7-footer with shot blocking instincts makes him an enticing defensive prospect.

Source:
http://upsidemotor.com/2015/08/17/dragan-bender-kristaps-porzingis-fiba-scouting-report-crotia-2016-nba-draft/

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Here's an exercise.  How about you put up your big board for the entire draft this year and then we'll judge your hit rate.

Yes, scouting is not a perfect science.  But I am going to guess that those employed to do the job will be significantly better at it than some random internet dude.

[droopdog7]

I know. One thing I've learned is that some NBA scouts are bad at their job. Do I need to fetch up some of the ludicrous projections NBA scouts have made in the past?   

Here's an exercise: pick a few NBA drafts from more than 5 years ago.  Now go through and for each pick, mark if they chose the best player available given what you know now.  A simple yes or no.  You'll find something remarkable.  Not only are scouts often wrong, they're wrong MOST of the time. The success rate is well below 50%. 

I trust my own eyes at least as much as any scouting report.

Sounds like you should be a scout.

Nah.  NBA scouts see a lot of things I can't see.  They select guys who never start an NBA game over league MVP's.  They pick guys with a good standing reach and assume they can learn basketball later.  They pass on obviously dominant D1 college players for 18 year olds with nothing more than "upside".  It's an inexact science because of all the "what if's", but their success rate is literally around 30%.  I'm comfortable disagreeing.

Newsflash.  Scouts don't pick anyone; GM's do.