Nylon Calculus on #3

[loco_91]

Nylon Calculus published an overview of their stats model's opinion on the top prospects, taking into account scouting opinions:

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/05/23/who-should-the-celtics-take-with-the-third-pick-in-the-2016-nba-draft/


They conclude that it is essentially a toss-up, with maybe a slight edge for Bender because his extremely strong FIBA stats are not included in the model. This is a weaker assessment than Kevin Pelton's model, which had Bender well ahead of other prospects and on par with Ingram. Pelton's model I think is taking into account Bender's FIBA stats, which were excellent (Vashro's model, which is probably the best, had him as one of the best prospects of all time based on 261 FIBA minutes). Thus, I feel that Nylon Calculus might be understating the importance of leaving out FIBA stats, considering that Bender's pro sample is small (443 minutes) and that his FIBA stats were so strong. I actually find it rather encouraging that their model likes Bender so much just based on his relatively underwhelming pro sample, and it reinforces my belief that Bender is the best pick at #3 unless his workout is less good than expected.

Nylon's model also likes Deyonta Davis, Jakob Poeltl, and Diamond Stone more than consensus. I agree strongly with Davis and Poeltl, and I might have to go back and look more carefully at Stone. The model also identifies Matthias Lessons of France and Monte Morris of Iowa State as potential sleepers (I had never heard of either).

[The One]

So Bender is barely the safest of the risky picks?

Oh boy, there's going to be some serious second guessing when there is someone performing better than the #3.

[loco_91]

So Bender is barely the safest of the risky picks?

Oh boy, there's going to be some serious second guessing when there is someone performing better than the #3.

Indeed. Drafting is just hard. If you could always draft the 2nd-best prospect available, you would. In reality, the 3rd pick is probably more likely to turn out as only the 5th or so best player in the draft.

[TheSundanceKid]

Interesting article. It does make me wonder if we will see Davis rise up the boards pre draft. Also interesting with Hield, there's a lot of hype around him that I'm not buying so its good to hear there is statistical reasoning behind that.

I'm not big on Murray or Hield and I think Dunn won't be as good as Smart. So I'm pretty pleased with this article. It does make me think that if Ainge is not sold on Bender he should look to trade back. Or if he likes Davis or Poeltl enough he should try darn hard to move up to the top 10, maybe target New Orleans or Sacramento

[PhoSita]

Further solidifies the prevailing view I've seen, which is that Bender is likely the best choice at #3, though it is very much the best of a set of less than ideal options.

The article makes me a bit more interested in the idea of moving up a few spots from #16 to try and snag one of Davis or Poeltl.

Davis looks like a project and possibly a tweener at the NBA level to me, but he looks like he has the tools to potentially address a lot of what the Celts are currently missing.

Coming away from this draft with both Bender (longer term project) and Davis or Poeltl (still a project but perhaps more immediate impact), plus giving some minutes to Mickey next season after a red shirt rookie season, could transform the Celts' frontcourt into one with good size, athleticism, and positional versatility for years to come.



RE: Stone, I think NC sets aside the general scouting opinion on Stone, which is that he's a bit of a tricky fit for the modern NBA game, seeing as he projects as a back to the basket center.  I've been defending Jahlil Okafor a lot around here lately, but I think a back to the basket guy has to have absolutely out of this world natural ability to be worth a lottery selection in today's league.  Okafor does, in my opinion.  Stone probably not so much, though maybe he could be a useful scoring backup someday.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Danny should call San Antonio, Golden State and OKC...and ask them who they would draft.

Safest way to use our pick. ha.