A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...

[Ilikesports17]

you cant do that because it is not the same context. Different draft, different players, different context. You are basically comparing apples and oranges.

My point is that if Marcus were in this draft and you wanted to draft a defensive point guard you'd pick between Gary Payton II and Marcus Smart and it would be a tough decision because their skill-sets are so similar.

Traveling further along that line of thought, if Gary Payton II goes say 22nd in this draft, I think that's a fairly good indicator of what Marcus Smart's value is currently because Gary Payton II is likely to offer a reasonable facsimile of Smart's defensive prowess with similar offensive production.

If Smart comes out this year and shows marked offensive improvement then you can throw the comparison out the window, but at the moment I think the two guards are extremely similar in terms of skills they bring to a team.

No. No, they are not. Smart went 6th in a much better draft, and GPIII might not even be picked in the first round of a much weaker draft. I'm not seeing how we're supposed to compare these guys right now.

Well I recommend you start by looking at their two years of stats compiled playing NCAA basketball, or watch both players play.  Sorry I don't know how to make a good table for the comparison but I'll do my best.

College Stats:

            G    MP   FG% 2P% 3P% FTA FT% TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TO   PTS
Payton 
Year 1   31/36.3/.485/.558/.293/3.2/.663/7.5/  3.2  /3.1/  1.2 /1.9/13.4
Year 2   32/34.3/.486/.520/.314/3.8/.642/7.8/  5.0 /2.5/   0.5/ 2.3/16.0

Smart
Year 1  33/33.5/.404/.465/.290/6.5/.777/5.8/  4.2 /3.0/    0.7/3.4/15.4
Year 2  31/32.7/.422/.514/.299/8.1/.728/5.9/  4.8/2.9/     0.6/2.6/18.0

So some interesting notes.  Payton averaged 1.2 blocks per game his junior year because he played a lot of his minutes at the forward spots for Oregon State.  One of Smart's best skills in college was his ability to draw fouls, a skill that has not translated to the NBA yet.   His rebounding and defense HAVE translated quite well, unfortunately so have his low efficiency scoring numbers. 

Payton rates out as a more efficient scorer from everywhere but the free throw line.  He's the better rebounder and puts up similar defensive statistics.  Rebounding and defense are two skills that tend to translate well from college to the NBA.

The two are obviously not identical, but they will fill the same role in the NBA as defensive guards.  Much has been made about Smart's ability to guard three positions, but I would propose to you that Payton showed that same ability in college playing the 1-4 and while the smaller player of the two he's the better athlete.

BTW I'm not trolling Smart, I actually like him quite a bit.  I'm just trying to show that from a value standpoint in the NBA you can often get a guard in the mid-late first round with a similar skillset.  This thread is more a reflection of my appreciation for Gary Payton II's underrated basketball skills than any knock on Smart.   

That doesnt make a ton of sense.

I think Payton is underrated too. I think whoever gets him is going to get a steal.

They have a similar skillset, but that is really different from value. Marcus had won a big-12 poy award and was a second team all american at age 19. Payton played in the inferior pac-12 and failed to accrue that type of resume at age 23.

If you wanted to make this post about Gary Payton perhaps then perhaps you shouldnt have titled the post "A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...", because looking at where Payton II gets picked is a terrible way to gauge Marcus Smarts value.

[IDreamCeltics]

 

That doesnt make a ton of sense.

I think Payton is underrated too. I think whoever gets him is going to get a steal.

They have a similar skillset, but that is really different from value. Marcus had won a big-12 poy award and was a second team all american at age 19. Payton played in the inferior pac-12 and failed to accrue that type of resume at age 23.

If you wanted to make this post about Gary Payton perhaps then perhaps you shouldnt have titled the post "A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...", because looking at where Payton II gets picked is a terrible way to gauge Marcus Smarts value.

Gary Payton II

College Awards & Honors

    2× First-team All-Pac-12 (2015, 2016)
    2x Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year (2015, 2016)
    2× Pac-12 All-Defensive Team (2015, 2016)
    Bob Cousy Award Finalist (2016)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (3.1 spg)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in total steals (95 steals)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (2.5 spg)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in total steals (80 steals)

[Ilikesports17]

That doesnt make a ton of sense.

I think Payton is underrated too. I think whoever gets him is going to get a steal.

They have a similar skillset, but that is really different from value. Marcus had won a big-12 poy award and was a second team all american at age 19. Payton played in the inferior pac-12 and failed to accrue that type of resume at age 23.

If you wanted to make this post about Gary Payton perhaps then perhaps you shouldnt have titled the post "A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...", because looking at where Payton II gets picked is a terrible way to gauge Marcus Smarts value.

Gary Payton II

College Awards & Honors

    2× First-team All-Pac-12 (2015, 2016)
    2x Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year (2015, 2016)
    2× Pac-12 All-Defensive Team (2015, 2016)
    Bob Cousy Award Finalist (2016)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (3.1 spg)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in total steals (95 steals)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (2.5 spg)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in total steals (80 steals)

Smarts resume is superior in my mind.

All American and big 12 player of the year along with being a Naismith award finalist.

[Ilikesports17]

That doesnt make a ton of sense.

I think Payton is underrated too. I think whoever gets him is going to get a steal.

They have a similar skillset, but that is really different from value. Marcus had won a big-12 poy award and was a second team all american at age 19. Payton played in the inferior pac-12 and failed to accrue that type of resume at age 23.

If you wanted to make this post about Gary Payton perhaps then perhaps you shouldnt have titled the post "A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...", because looking at where Payton II gets picked is a terrible way to gauge Marcus Smarts value.

Gary Payton II

College Awards & Honors

    2× First-team All-Pac-12 (2015, 2016)
    2x Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year (2015, 2016)
    2× Pac-12 All-Defensive Team (2015, 2016)
    Bob Cousy Award Finalist (2016)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (3.1 spg)
    2015 Pac-12 leader in total steals (95 steals)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in steals per game (2.5 spg)
    2016 Pac-12 leader in total steals (80 steals)

Smart literally has all of these for the big 12 except for DPOY. But seeing as his Drating, steals per 100 posessions and D win shares are all higher than Payton II's I still give Smart a pretty substantial edge.

Not to forget he was a Wooden Finalist, won freshman of the year for the country, was an all American, and he was actually a Cousy finalist where Payton II wasnt. Id also say the big 12 is a lot better than the pac 12.

[IDreamCeltics]

If you wanted to make this post about Gary Payton perhaps then perhaps you shouldnt have titled the post "A solid way to identify Marcus Smart's current value...", because looking at where Payton II gets picked is a terrible way to gauge Marcus Smarts value.

Wait, but why is it a terrible way to guage Marcus Smart's trade value?  Value is all about scarcity.  The supply of NBA point guards with NBA ready defense, strong rebounding, and below average handling/passing/scoring abilities is about to go up.  Gary Payton II's draft position will tell us a lot about where other NBA teams value that skill-set.

And more importantly - if you're an NBA GM trying to acquire a defensive point guard, are you going to give the Celtics anything above the value of Gary Payton II's projected draft position when you KNOW you could draft him and get similar production?  If so, how much more are you willing to give them?  Would you trade a lottery pick for Smart while Gary Payton II is on the board?  Would you trade pick 16 for Smart if you knew you could pickup Payton at 24?

Just to be clear here are Smart's NBA numbers via nba.com

            GP  MIN  PTS  FG%  2%   3%   FTA  FT%  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TO
Year 1   67/ 27.0/7.8 /36.7 /.410/33.5/ 1.9 /64.6/ 3.3  /3.1 /1.5 / 0.3/ 1.3   
Year 2   61/ 27.3/9.1/ 34.8 /.427/25.3/ 2.7 /77.7/ 4.2  /3.0/ 1.5/  0.3/ 1.3

Smart's draft position (#6 overall in his draft) was based largely on the assumption that his best offensive attribute in college - his ability to get to the rim and score or draw fouls - would translate to the NBA.  So far it hasn't.  While his volume did increase this year his efficiency actually dropped slightly.  He did sport better than a 2:1 A/To ratio both years and obviously his steals and rebounding numbers are very solid.  Intangibles also play a big part in his value, effort, determination, leadership, and work ethic are all valuable traits, but how MUCH value do teams place on them?  Remember, Draymond Green wasn't drafted until the second round.

My take is, given 27 minutes a night Gary Payton II could replicate Smart's on court production while providing similar versatility as a defender.  Some people feel because Payton II is a year and three months older than Smart the difference in their potential is drastic.  This assumption seems tenuous to me, but only time will tell.