Author Topic: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....  (Read 27841 times)

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Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #120 on: May 25, 2016, 06:06:29 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Instead of showing videos of only his weaknesses from 2 years ago then saying that they are all you need to know, I went and compiled his actual stats in the last couple months from Maccabi's website.  Then I went to their YouTube page and got the highlight videos.

I hadn't seen all of these.  Thanks for posting.

Same takeaways as before though.  His defensive instincts and rebounding instincts are BAD.  Often out of position, darting around and overcorrecting.  His speed is good in a straight line, but laterally not good.  Better than rookie Olynyk, if that's a compliment.  He can make shots and his form has improved - his lone NBA skill.  The game looks painfully unnatural to him.

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #121 on: May 25, 2016, 06:13:08 PM »

Offline arctic 3.0

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Allow me to be philosophical for a sec.  I'm leery of evaluating a prospect this way.  "If he just gets better at x and y he could make a real impact".  Or, "we haven't seen him do it yet, but the potential is there".  In my experience, some things can be improved (like conditioning), but what you see is mostly what you get.  Many of the most important things are innate.

The area where this sort of language concerns me the most is when a player is described as being a bad defender who has the tools to be a good defender.
Those two posts started out sounding like they were critiques of Bender but wound up sounding like critiques of Okafor.

Anyway, I'm not sure how else one might evaluate 18, 19, and 20 year old kids. Saying "what you see is what you get" is not just wrong it's grossly wrong. No one ever gets drafted fully formed. Okafor was supposed to be more "NBA ready" than Towns but Towns has proven to be more NBA ready and still has a higher upside. These guys get better in between draft day and preseason, let alone the improvements they make when they get into the league.

The real question should be, "Does this guy have the skills to improve on and the temperament to put in the work?"
Bee eye een gee oh. bingo

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #122 on: May 25, 2016, 06:16:03 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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Here is a scouting report. This is only his weak spots. Thoughts:

His lack of strength and experience can be taken advantage of fairly easily by older and more physically mature players. His lower body in particular is underdeveloped, as he gets backed down fairly easily inside the paint, and is very foul prone at this stage at over 7 fouls per-40 minutes. He's also a poor defensive rebounder at just 4.7 per-40, something he should be better at considering his length and athleticism.

He isn't the toughest guy you'll find right now, which plays against him with his ability to finish effectively around the basket in traffic. He's converted just 49% of his attempts around the rim this season, and doesn't show any real resemblance of a post-game to take advantage of his superior size. He doesn't get to the free throw line very often (2.2 times per-40) as he tends to avoid contact around the rim.

As skilled as he might look in warmups and in occasional flashes he shows in games, he isn't a terribly consistent shooter at this stage, making just 33% of his 3-point attempts and 58% of his free throws. He can get really hot at times, like he did at least year's Nike Junior Tournament, where he hit 13/27 (48%) from outside in five games, but he'll need to keep working on this part of his game, particularly in terms of speeding up his release and avoiding dipping the ball substantially before he winds into his shot. He'll almost certainly need to be effective with this part of his game to make up for his lack a back to the basket arsenal.

What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He is one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.

His coach seems to like him quite a bit, as he gives him plenty of freedom to operate from the perimeter and make creative decisions with the ball, which is not exactly common at this level of basketball for a player his age. He has been averaging a steady 15 minutes per game all season long, sometimes even seeing the floor with the game in the balance against some of his teams toughest opponents, which is invaluable experience.

A scouting report a year later.

He still looks a long ways away from reaching his full potential here, starting with his body, which remains very frail and could make him susceptible to injuries if not developed carefully. He also lacks something in the ways of toughness and awareness, as he tends to avoid contact in the paint and regularly gets pushed around on the interior, not always offering up as much resistance as you might hope. The game moves a little too fast for him at times, and he doesn't appear to be the quickest thinker around, often looking a half-step slow in his reaction time. All of these things show up in his surprisingly pedestrian rebounding numbers (2.4 offensive and 5.8 defensive per-40).

He also isn't a great passer, dishing out just 41 assists in his last 1813 minutes of action over the the last three years, or one assist for every 44 minutes he plays. His assist percentage this season (and over the course of career) is one of the lowest of any player in this draft class, which is not ideal for a stretch-4 that teams may hope to run a significant amount of offense through on the perimeter.

While his superior size for his position is certainly attractive, at the moment he has very few ways of utilizing his height to his advantage besides his shooting stroke, as he has no back to the basket game and very little interest in playing inside the paint.

With that said, it's important to remember that he is still young and only scratching the surface of how good he can become. His unique combination of size, skills and mobility at 7-1 gives him incredible potential to grow into in time, even if more-so than any other prospect in the draft possibly, he needs to land in the right situation in the draft.

At 7-1, with a frail frame, and the shooting stroke of a guard, he doesn't have a crystal clear role in the NBA right now, at least not in a traditional sense, and certainly not in the short term. If his first coach in the NBA doesn't appreciate his skill-set, and isn't ready to be patient and work through his limitations, he could struggle badly to get minutes early on. Getting with the right coach, roster and organization who can develop him will play a huge role in the success he has in the NBA.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 07:45:39 PM by clevelandceltic »

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #123 on: May 25, 2016, 06:22:20 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Allow me to be philosophical for a sec.  I'm leery of evaluating a prospect this way.  "If he just gets better at x and y he could make a real impact".  Or, "we haven't seen him do it yet, but the potential is there".  In my experience, some things can be improved (like conditioning), but what you see is mostly what you get.  Many of the most important things are innate.

The area where this sort of language concerns me the most is when a player is described as being a bad defender who has the tools to be a good defender.
Those two posts started out sounding like they were critiques of Bender but wound up sounding like critiques of Okafor.

Anyway, I'm not sure how else one might evaluate 18, 19, and 20 year old kids. Saying "what you see is what you get" is not just wrong it's grossly wrong. No one ever gets drafted fully formed. Okafor was supposed to be more "NBA ready" than Towns but Towns has proven to be more NBA ready and still has a higher upside. These guys get better in between draft day and preseason, let alone the improvements they make when they get into the league.

The real question should be, "Does this guy have the skills to improve on and the temperament to put in the work?"
Bee eye een gee oh. bingo
What does it even mean to "have skills to improve on"?  Are you skilled or not?  Does it mean you're 70% as good as you need to be in order to be effective in the NBA?

Marcus Smart needs to improve his jump shot.  It is not good enough.  Are we saying he "has skill to improve on"?  How did we turn this into a positive?  Are we only talking about the "willing to work" part?

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #124 on: May 25, 2016, 06:27:11 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Allow me to be philosophical for a sec.  I'm leery of evaluating a prospect this way.  "If he just gets better at x and y he could make a real impact".  Or, "we haven't seen him do it yet, but the potential is there".  In my experience, some things can be improved (like conditioning), but what you see is mostly what you get.  Many of the most important things are innate.

The area where this sort of language concerns me the most is when a player is described as being a bad defender who has the tools to be a good defender.
Those two posts started out sounding like they were critiques of Bender but wound up sounding like critiques of Okafor.

Anyway, I'm not sure how else one might evaluate 18, 19, and 20 year old kids. Saying "what you see is what you get" is not just wrong it's grossly wrong. No one ever gets drafted fully formed. Okafor was supposed to be more "NBA ready" than Towns but Towns has proven to be more NBA ready and still has a higher upside. These guys get better in between draft day and preseason, let alone the improvements they make when they get into the league.

The real question should be, "Does this guy have the skills to improve on and the temperament to put in the work?"
I think you're over-extending what I said, or at least what I meant.  Let me give a couple examples of "what you see is what you get".

Avery Bradley will never be a great playmaker
Tony Allen will never be a great shooter
Jason Kidd is a great playmaker (probably since middle school)
Kelly Olynyk will never be a shot blocker
Carmelo Anthony (at syracuse) is an elite scorer
Deandre Jordan is a bad FT shooter
JJ Reddick is a great shooter

These things are just true.  Melos don't forget how to score and Tony Allens don't become Ray Allens.  So back to Bender.  What can we say with some confidence?
Coming out of college, Draymond Green couldn't shoot 3's. His first years in the NBA, Bruce Bowen couldn't shoot 3's and he wound up leading the league in 3P%. Kevin Love attempted just 19 3's his rookie season and now routinely attempts 5-6 per game. There are countless examples of guys who come into the league without a skill that they later develop.

Kyle Korver was a terrible defender before his time in Chicago and then he learned under Thibbs and became a plus defender in Atlanta. Danny Green had a similar trajectory as someone not known for his defense who is now a great perimeter defender on the Spurs.

Happens all the time.
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Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #125 on: May 25, 2016, 06:32:57 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Allow me to be philosophical for a sec.  I'm leery of evaluating a prospect this way.  "If he just gets better at x and y he could make a real impact".  Or, "we haven't seen him do it yet, but the potential is there".  In my experience, some things can be improved (like conditioning), but what you see is mostly what you get.  Many of the most important things are innate.

The area where this sort of language concerns me the most is when a player is described as being a bad defender who has the tools to be a good defender.
Those two posts started out sounding like they were critiques of Bender but wound up sounding like critiques of Okafor.

Anyway, I'm not sure how else one might evaluate 18, 19, and 20 year old kids. Saying "what you see is what you get" is not just wrong it's grossly wrong. No one ever gets drafted fully formed. Okafor was supposed to be more "NBA ready" than Towns but Towns has proven to be more NBA ready and still has a higher upside. These guys get better in between draft day and preseason, let alone the improvements they make when they get into the league.

The real question should be, "Does this guy have the skills to improve on and the temperament to put in the work?"
I think you're over-extending what I said, or at least what I meant.  Let me give a couple examples of "what you see is what you get".

Avery Bradley will never be a great playmaker
Tony Allen will never be a great shooter
Jason Kidd is a great playmaker (probably since middle school)
Kelly Olynyk will never be a shot blocker
Carmelo Anthony (at syracuse) is an elite scorer
Deandre Jordan is a bad FT shooter
JJ Reddick is a great shooter

These things are just true.  Melos don't forget how to score and Tony Allens don't become Ray Allens.  So back to Bender.  What can we say with some confidence?
Coming out of college, Draymond Green couldn't shoot 3's. His first years in the NBA, Bruce Bowen couldn't shoot 3's and he wound up leading the league in 3P%. Kevin Love attempted just 19 3's his rookie season and now routinely attempts 5-6 per game. There are countless examples of guys who come into the league without a skill that they later develop.

Kyle Korver was a terrible defender before his time in Chicago and then he learned under Thibbs and became a plus defender in Atlanta. Danny Green had a similar trajectory as someone not known for his defense who is now a great perimeter defender on the Spurs.

Happens all the time.
Shooting ability can improve, as I noted in the original post.

Korver isn't getting any votes for all-nba defense.  He's a smart team defender who plays mistake free.  Nothing has changed.

Danny Green's evaluation from draftexpress before the draft:

"While his shortcomings are pretty obvious, he still brings quite a bit to the table in terms of his role-player potential, being able to make open shots and play lock-down defense, which is what he’s most known for."

Surely there are better examples.

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #126 on: May 25, 2016, 06:37:43 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Kyle Korver, plus defender? I've heard it all. Please stick to baseball :P
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Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #127 on: May 25, 2016, 06:56:37 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Just in terms of actual games. There are at least 2 full games on youtube that I know of from 2014. Im sure if you dig around you can find the 2 games that ESPN showed earlier this year when they came stateside.

I dont think anyone here is saying that they have all the answers but this much we know:
2013 Played in the Jordan Brand Classic international game
2014 Played in the U18 tourney for Croatia
2014 Played in Israeli division two basketball
2015 Played for Maccabi stateside but didnt play much at all during the season

He played in Basketball Without Borders which is an NBA event somewhere in there and killed it from what I have read.

So can we put to bed the idea that people havent seen him? Maybe you havent but many scouts have. Can we wonder how much he has progressed due to the lack of playing time this year? Sure.Is it enough of a package to make him a star? Time will only tell.
I've watched some of these games, but admittedly not much.  He honestly didn't do much in the games you mention, especially in the last year or so.

My problem is this.  I've never seen him make a great play.  Even if you string together all the best highlights and games available on the internet, I don't see anything remarkable.  He just isn't great at anything.  Now project that to the NBA against the best athletes in the world.  Is he banging with Steve Adams and Tristan Thompson? Guarding Lamarcus Aldridge?  Posting up Al Horford?  Taking Paul Milsap or Marvin Williams off the dribble?  Are you going to park him in the corner to shoot 3's?  He just doesn't have an NBA skillset.  Doesn't rebound well.  Doesn't protect the rim.  As a coach I'm thinking, what do I do with this guy?

Is there a chance he keeps improving?  Sure, why not?  I guess that's true of every 18 year old.  Is there a chance he's not as good a pro as Tyler Zeller?  I'd say roughly even odds based on what little I've seen.

The U18 games which there are actually 3 on youtube I havent watched. I would love to be able to watch that Jordan Brand Classic game in 2013. Although many things have changed since then, I want to see how he played against the best players his age at that time. Other players in that game:
Ben Simmons
Thon Maker
Jamal Murray
Check Diallo

I did watch the two games that I saw when he played stateside and I liked what I saw. In those games he looked to me like he would play a Draymond role at the next level. A guy who might not be your main guy but a guy that can help you win every night with all the things that he does. Kinda like what Smart gives you. I think thats valuable in a big guy if you dont have one that you know is a 20pt a night guy. I asked Woj about Bender in terms of role only. I asked if he was more Draymond or Pau a guy that can be your 2nd best scorer. He said he leaned Pau for what its worth.

At the end of the day barring Ingram or Simmons falling, I think he offers the most value. I have really liked Murray for a long time now, Im talking years. I really like Brown's ability to attack the rim, something we dont have at all really. Heild can bring shooting but Im not sure what else. With Bender, I think Im getting a guy that has a number of above average tools at 18 and Im ok with that. That's valuable.
So this is something I haven't heard a lot of.  Bender as just a hustle/intangibles/glue guy.  Maybe.  So far I'm hearing "Dirk who can guard all 5 positions, protect the rim and run your offense".  That just isn't reality.  But I could see him being an Omri Casspi type player.  Hustles and moves well, defends his position, knocks down open 3's.

That said, I'm not excited about that at #3.  There are guys like Denzell Valentine who has a chance to be a cornerstone type of player and is low risk IMO.  Or Murray who has a chance of being an elite scorer, which is very hard to find.  I also like Demetrius Jackson and Poeltl.  There's just too much risk with Bender.

Just for reference, here is the U18 Euro tournament Lithuania vs Croatia game featuring both Dragan Bender (age 16) and Domantas Sabonis (age 18).  They are both #11 on their respective teams.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T111y-x5Wm8

This is a great game.  The key period is the third period when Croatia storms from behind to take control of the game behind Bender scoring 15 points (he had 34 points and 14 rebounds for the game).

He also had a hell of a game in the championship for that tournament, coming up one assist shy of a triple double, though his team lost.

For a more recent game, Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv will likely eventually post full game vids (they have full game vids from prior seasons) but so far they only have highlight vids of this year's games on their youtube channel.

This one was put together earlier this season and focuses on Bender in a game in December:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYQ5TIbVsy4

Unfortunately, it focuses mainly on his offense in that game and doesn't show him on defense much.

I expect there will be more vids of more recent games coming out over the next couple of weeks from various sources.

It is useful to compare the two videos as you can clearly see the jump in size and physicality of the players from the U18 level to this one.  Bender himself clearly looks a little bigger, though still very skinny.
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Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #128 on: May 25, 2016, 07:08:11 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.
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Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #129 on: May 25, 2016, 07:18:45 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Thanks for sharing.  I've seen that and it's neat that the footage exists, but I can't draw much from it.  The kids are 16 and the level of play is about on par with a CA (or similar) state high school tourney.  Maybe a notch worse.

Incidentally, I like Sabonis a lot as a low-risk, medium-reward pick.  Contrary to Bender, he has excellent instincts and strength.  Just not terrific athleticism and average length.  Near as I can tell, Sabonis would eat his lunch nowadays just like the bigger stronger guys in Israel.

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #130 on: May 25, 2016, 07:21:45 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


What is your analysis besides that?

No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #131 on: May 25, 2016, 07:26:05 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


What is your analysis besides that?

No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.
I think the point was that he does NOT turn 19 before the draft.

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #132 on: May 25, 2016, 07:39:35 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


What is your analysis besides that?

No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.
I think the point was that he does NOT turn 19 before the draft.

I know what the point was Im asking about the rest of the scouting report

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #133 on: May 25, 2016, 07:43:09 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


What is your analysis besides that?

No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.
I think the point was that he does NOT turn 19 before the draft.

The question is can this player play based upon the negatives in this scouting report?

Re: Before jumping on the Bender hype train review....
« Reply #134 on: May 25, 2016, 07:59:42 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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What's important to keep in mind is just how young he is. He doesn't turn 19 until just before the draft making him one of the youngest prospects in the draft. Players his size usually take longer to mature physically and really blossom, so there is a lot to be optimistic about moving forward.


What is your analysis besides that?

No.  He doesn't turn 19 until November 17.  He will still be 18 when the NBA season starts.
I think the point was that he does NOT turn 19 before the draft.

The question is can this player play based upon the negatives in this scouting report?
Ahh, gotcha. 

You know, when people ask how my kids are doing I'm going to start saying "too early to tell.  She's only 12.  Sure, she gets pushed around right now and technically she doesn't have an NBA skill yet... but just you wait!"  LOL

Also, interesting side note.  Danny is overseas and advertising about Bender on Twitter.  This is excellent.  Danny can obviously see that the kid can't play a lick.  Hard sell, Danny.