Which Team Are You For the Third Pick?

[fandrew]

Bender for me. Mostly due to the hype. But while I say that now, I also reserve the right to change my mind if his workout is terrible. Otherwise, I am torn between Buddy and Murry. Dunn is not even in the conversation for me because I really do feel that he has the lowest ceiling between him and Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray.

[Casperian]

Compared to other SF prospects, Bender isn't that impressive, except that his height and length means he will likely be able to play at the 4 and possibly the 5 once he adds muscle.

Look around the league.  How many seven footers can hit threes with frequency and efficiency?  How many seven footers can attack a close-out and also defend 3-5?

Look to Europe, and the answer is "a lot", since that is how they develop bigs here.

I mean, what you're saying is completely right, but the question "will he ever get there" remains. You talk about a seven footer who can hit threes with frequency and could one day be able to guard 4s and 5s, and I'll show you Andrea Bargnani. Or I'll show you Pau Gasol. Which one will Bender become?
I would love to have a young Pau Gasol on this team, but the history of the draft suggests that he's more likely to become the former. Your line of reasoning is precisely what enabled all these highly touted euro busts. "Oh, he just needs to fill out", "If he can translate his game to the NBA, watch out", "Imagine the possibilities if he ever gets there". I've heard this stuff way too often to get excited about Dragan Bender. It's just not enough. You need a bit more, or "different", evidence to get people intrigued. And that's precisely where people have their doubts.

Now, I'm not an expert on european basketball, and I'm not a professional scout, but what I see when I look at the footage available doesn't exactly inspire confidence that he will turn into a 4, much less a 5, in the NBA. Which is why I said he strikes me as a very tall 3, not a finesse 5 like Porzingis. Gotta trust Danny, eh?

So, my challenge for the Team Trade the Pick folks is, for whom?  You can kinda see it in the biased way I phrased the poll option -- I think it's really easy to say, "Oh I don't like the draft, none of these guys can help us for the next few years, just trade for somebody who's already good." 

It's much harder to figure out a realistic explanation for what that would look like.  Because you know, teams with players that are already good tend to feel the same way about the draft.  Why trade this really good player -- Butler, Cousins, George, Etc -- for a draft pick or three? 

Most of the time, established guys who get traded are either on the back end of their prime, or only have a single season left on their contract.  Tough to justify trading a top 3 selection for a player who fits in either category.

C'mon man, you know that's the wrong way to look at it. None of us is in the loop, we don't know who's available and at what price, and it always takes two to tango. It's impossible to answer this question with any kind of confidence or credibility. Doesn't mean I can't hope for it and consider it a best-case scenario.

I believe I can answer your follow-up question, though. Teams trade really good players all the time. It may have been a bit quiet on that front for the last two years, mainly because of the new CBA and increasing cap space, which allowed teams to "sit it out" if they had a disgruntled star on their team, but that will most likely change pretty soon, once teams overpay for middle of the road players again...and they will undoubtedly do exactly that, as they have always done whenever they had some spare cash lying around and a star, or fanbase, to please.

Chris Paul got traded. Carmelo Anthony. Deron Williams (was pretty good back then). KG. Ray Allen. Pau Gasol. Up until two years ago, trades involving stars happened basically every year. If you can get a player of similar quality, I don't see how it's "tough to justify" trading #3 in what is widely considered to be a 2-player draft.

Trades on that scale involve a lot more than just the player and the picks you trade him for. Agents, for example. If such a trade happens, you can safely assume that the parties involved have a pretty good idea how safe the return on their investment really is.

[mmmmm]

Compared to other SF prospects, Bender isn't that impressive, except that his height and length means he will likely be able to play at the 4 and possibly the 5 once he adds muscle.

Look around the league.  How many seven footers can hit threes with frequency and efficiency?  How many seven footers can attack a close-out and also defend 3-5?

Look to Europe, and the answer is "a lot", since that is how they develop bigs here.

I mean, what you're saying is completely right, but the question "will he ever get there" remains. You talk about a seven footer who can hit threes with frequency and could one day be able to guard 4s and 5s, and I'll show you Andrea Bargnani. Or I'll show you Pau Gasol. Which one will Bender become?
I would love to have a young Pau Gasol on this team, but the history of the draft suggests that he's more likely to become the former. Your line of reasoning is precisely what enabled all these highly touted euro busts. "Oh, he just needs to fill out", "If he can translate his game to the NBA, watch out", "Imagine the possibilities if he ever gets there". I've heard this stuff way too often to get excited about Dragan Bender. It's just not enough. You need a bit more, or "different", evidence to get people intrigued. And that's precisely where people have their doubts.

Now, I'm not an expert on european basketball, and I'm not a professional scout, but what I see when I look at the footage available doesn't exactly inspire confidence that he will turn into a 4, much less a 5, in the NBA. Which is why I said he strikes me as a very tall 3, not a finesse 5 like Porzingis. Gotta trust Danny, eh?

So, my challenge for the Team Trade the Pick folks is, for whom?  You can kinda see it in the biased way I phrased the poll option -- I think it's really easy to say, "Oh I don't like the draft, none of these guys can help us for the next few years, just trade for somebody who's already good." 

It's much harder to figure out a realistic explanation for what that would look like.  Because you know, teams with players that are already good tend to feel the same way about the draft.  Why trade this really good player -- Butler, Cousins, George, Etc -- for a draft pick or three? 

Most of the time, established guys who get traded are either on the back end of their prime, or only have a single season left on their contract.  Tough to justify trading a top 3 selection for a player who fits in either category.

C'mon man, you know that's the wrong way to look at it. None of us is in the loop, we don't know who's available and at what price, and it always takes two to tango. It's impossible to answer this question with any kind of confidence or credibility. Doesn't mean I can't hope for it and consider it a best-case scenario.

I believe I can answer your follow-up question, though. Teams trade really good players all the time. It may have been a bit quiet on that front for the last two years, mainly because of the new CBA and increasing cap space, which allowed teams to "sit it out" if they had a disgruntled star on their team, but that will most likely change pretty soon, once teams overpay for middle of the road players again...and they will undoubtedly do exactly that, as they have always done whenever they had some spare cash lying around and a star, or fanbase, to please.

Chris Paul got traded. Carmelo Anthony. Deron Williams (was pretty good back then). KG. Ray Allen. Pau Gasol. Up until two years ago, trades involving stars happened basically every year. If you can get a player of similar quality, I don't see how it's "tough to justify" trading #3 in what is widely considered to be a 2-player draft.

Trades on that scale involve a lot more than just the player and the picks you trade him for. Agents, for example. If such a trade happens, you can safely assume that the parties involved have a pretty good idea how safe the return on their investment really is.

So, on the first item, you deal with ignorance (lack of information) by assuming the worst.  That because you aren't privy to more positive information about Bender, that there probably isn't any.

In the second case, you deal with ignorance (you clearly plead ignorance there) by assuming the best.  That Danny will figure something out and make a deal happen.

Isn't it possible that Danny (and other scouts and the various analysts who have Bender rated so highly) might be privy to more (positive) information than you are?   Just as you hope that Danny is privy to more decent trade possibilities than you are?

[dreamgreen]

I'll do the trade for Okafor. Not convinced he's better than the players left on the board but we are desperate for a big and we know he can play.

On a side note if Ingram drops to us at #3 I pick him instead!

[Casperian]

So, on the first item, you deal with ignorance (lack of information) by assuming the worst.  That because you aren't privy to more positive information about Bender, that there probably isn't any.

I'm not assuming anything. I gave my opinion based on the evidence available to me. I've seen footage, I listened to interviews, I've read up on third-party accounts. That's about all I can do as a mere fan.

I never said Bender could not turn into a great player. I clearly allowed the possibility he could turn into the next Pau Gasol. I said I would prefer a sure thing over the risky "what if".

In the second case, you deal with ignorance (you clearly plead ignorance there) by assuming the best.  That Danny will figure something out and make a deal happen.

Isn't it possible that Danny (and other scouts and the various analysts who have Bender rated so highly) might be privy to more (positive) information than you are?   Just as you hope that Danny is privy to more decent trade possibilities than you are?

Again, I'm not assuming anything. I'm hoping. Big difference.

It's not only possible, I am certain that's the case. Which is why I said

Gotta trust Danny, eh?

Regardless, there are many, many experts privy to the same information, and believe it or not, these experts disagree with each other from time to time, too.
If those experts with all their information available to them could claim to be infallible, #1 picks like Anthony Bennett would never happen, right?

If you want to have a more substantial answer to the unspoken question behind your post, then yes, I trust Danny to do the right thing, regardless of my opinion right now. As usual.

[PhoSita]

I mean, what you're saying is completely right, but the question "will he ever get there" remains. You talk about a seven footer who can hit threes with frequency and could one day be able to guard 4s and 5s, and I'll show you Andrea Bargnani. Or I'll show you Pau Gasol. Which one will Bender become?

This is true, but I think the best answer to this is the perhaps-maddening, "Well that's why they pay international scouts."

The stat models and scouts all seem to have arrived at a consensus, at least right now, that Bender is worthy of a top pick in this particular draft.

By no means does that make him a sure thing.  But that's good enough for me to believe the likelihood of him "getting there" is good enough to make the pick.

So, my challenge for the Team Trade the Pick folks is, for whom?  You can kinda see it in the biased way I phrased the poll option -- I think it's really easy to say, "Oh I don't like the draft, none of these guys can help us for the next few years, just trade for somebody who's already good." 

It's much harder to figure out a realistic explanation for what that would look like.  Because you know, teams with players that are already good tend to feel the same way about the draft.  Why trade this really good player -- Butler, Cousins, George, Etc -- for a draft pick or three? 

Most of the time, established guys who get traded are either on the back end of their prime, or only have a single season left on their contract.  Tough to justify trading a top 3 selection for a player who fits in either category.

C'mon man, you know that's the wrong way to look at it. None of us is in the loop, we don't know who's available and at what price, and it always takes two to tango. It's impossible to answer this question with any kind of confidence or credibility. Doesn't mean I can't hope for it and consider it a best-case scenario.

You can hope for it, sure, and I'm not gonna rain on your parade if you do.

The answer "Trade the pick, I don't want to play this draft game because I think it's a crapshoot, I want the team to be better now," just strikes me as magical thinking. 

I don't care how this will happen, I just want DA to make it happen.

Of course, I think most teams with top picks feel that way.  Why doesn't everybody trade their top 5 selection for a perennial All-Star?  Because it's really hard to make it happen.

So, my feeling is that if you are firmly in the "trade it" category, you should at least have some ideas that pass the smell test about how that might happen.

[Casperian]

This is true, but I think the best answer to this is the perhaps-maddening, "Well that's why they pay international scouts."

The stat models and scouts all seem to have arrived at a consensus, at least right now, that Bender is worthy of a top pick in this particular draft.

By no means does that make him a sure thing.  But that's good enough for me to believe the likelihood of him "getting there" is good enough to make the pick.

Oh really?
Strange, I could've sworn the consensus was "this is a 2-player draft, and Bender is probably the best of the rest", but maybe you're privy to information I'm not aware of?

If that is good enough for you to wish we use the pick on Bender over the possibility of trading the pick for something better, then that's your prerogative. A rather unreflected opinion and rash decision, I would add, but your prerogative, nonetheless.

Or we could skip the nonsense and talk about the elephant in the room. You know, the one that is apparent from reading between the lines. The one where you and m5 here have already made up your minds and settled on Bender at #3, and are now scrambling for anything that justifies your preconceived opinion.
I'm not judging, but let's be real, that is what's actually going on here.

You can hope for it, sure, and I'm not gonna rain on your parade if you do.

The answer "Trade the pick, I don't want to play this draft game because I think it's a crapshoot, I want the team to be better now," just strikes me as magical thinking. 

I don't care how this will happen, I just want DA to make it happen.

Of course, I think most teams with top picks feel that way.  Why doesn't everybody trade their top 5 selection for a perennial All-Star?  Because it's really hard to make it happen.

So, my feeling is that if you are firmly in the "trade it" category, you should at least have some ideas that pass the smell test about how that might happen.

Now that's a very nice strawman.
Unfortunately, I a) never said anything like that, I merely gave a vote on a poll you yourself admitted was biased in it's phrasing (a phrase you're now using again), and b) I gave plenty of potential scenarios I could envision in my earlier post.

So, my feeling is that if you don't like to hear people`s opinions, maybe you shouldn't ask for them in the first place.

I mean, are you really serious when you question our ability to trade the 3rd pick? Because that makes no sense whatsoever. As if other teams wouldn't at least listen to offers including a 3rd pick in the draft... 

[tomrod]

Hield, Bender, Murray. I'd be fine with either one, but chose Hield since its a safer pick. I hate hate hate all of that Okafor crap, I think Ainge is smarter than go for the old fashioned center that plays no defense and is a ****.