Misconceptions about the #3 pick and the 2016 draft

[Sixth Man]

Thank you, Granath the Truthteller!  Great players can be found in draft slots not named #1 and #2 overall.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

 What people mean when they say it's a two player draft translated.

 "There are two players heavily hyped, and I don't watch college basketball so I can't see past the hype train"

 How did Greg Oden, Joel Embiid, Michael Olawakandi, Darko Milicic, Adam Morrison turn out? Not good.

 It's not a two player draft, you sound uninformed when you say that.

You're seriously comparing supremely talent guys who got hurt(Oden/Embiid) with guys who just stunk?

That's a bit absurd.

[straightouttabahstun]

Ainge likes this draft. And to be honest, I believe he's telling the truth and not giving a standard PC answer. Dragan Bender looks alright. He could be very integral to the Celtics' front court in the future. Or hell, even get Buddy Hield. Kid looks like a stud too. The draft looks like it's slowly revealing itself as a pretty decent draft. Not every draft can be 96/98/03.

[billysan]

A bunch of talent in that top 7 and I feel like we will do our due diligence on those guys. I am less worried about that than the number 16 pick. This is where we could steal a player. I would love to see Brice Johnson for example get picked by the Celtics or Ellenson, Chriss, Davis in that slot. Poeltl could also slide down there. I doubt Sabonis does because of his pedigree but who knows? It looks like a prime spot to get a decent big man prospect with big upside.

[spikelovetheCelts]

A bunch of talent in that top 7 and I feel like we will do our due diligence on those guys. I am less worried about that than the number 16 pick. This is where we could steal a player. I would love to see Brice Johnson for example get picked by the Celtics or Ellenson, Chriss, Davis in that slot. Poeltl could also slide down there. I doubt Sabonis does because of his pedigree but who knows? It looks like a prime spot to get a decent big man prospect with big upside.

We can move up that 23, 31 and 35 can help 16 become Sabonis.

[mmmmm]

There are a bunch of misconceptions about the #3 pick and the 2016 draft this year. Let's clear them up.

(1) "It's a two player draft"

No, it's not. Last year was supposedly a two player draft and the #2 player wasn't picked until #3. The time before it was a two player draft the #3 pick was a 4 time All-Star. Simply put, the only way we'll know it was a two player draft is 5 or 10 years from now. What typically happens is that there are one or two clear-cut prospects due to talent, age or hype prior to the pre-draft workouts. Most often players separate themselves in those workouts. Since those workouts haven't happened yet, there's not a lot of buzz out there yet on some other player.

For instance, if Jamal Murray comes into workouts and shows a better ability to pass or better-than-thought physical skills, he's going to SHOOT up in value. If Jaylen Brown interviews well and shows more polish then he's going to get the buzz. But until those workouts happen, we won't know.

(2) "The #3 pick is not worth that much"

Since 1980 #3 picks have actually fared better than #2 picks. In the last 15 years guys like Beal, Harden, Hortford, 'Melo and Gasol have been picked that this spot. Historically it's not cheap to trade for the #3 pick either. It's worth far more than an above-average vet or just a middle-of-the-road player.

(3) "Well, that history is all fine and nice but that has nothing to do with this particular draft"

See point #1. The player evaluations aren't in yet. What looks like an obvious truth now will look very, very different by draft night. It's always does. Plus there's always a perceived value with a draft pick that high. The Seven Dwarves could be the prime prospects this year and there would still be a perceived, historical value in being able to pick Dopey 3rd.

4. "There's no difference between #3 and #10 in this draft"

Hogwash. No one is predicting Bender, Hield or Murray to fall to #10. Right now there's a tier 1 in Simmons and Ingram. That may very well change in the pre-draft workouts. Then there's a tier 2 of Bender, Hield, Murry, Dunn and maybe Brown. That WILL change in the pre-draft workouts. Someone may move up. Someone will move down. But there's clearly a pecking order that doesn't stretch out of the top 7.

5. "There's no difference between choosing #3 and #6 in this draft"

Oh rly? So you'd just as well rather have the #6 pick? 

Simply put, even if all things were equal - and they're not - being able to pick 3rd allows a team to pick the player who is the best fit who fills the biggest need. That was the biggest problem with the Marcus Smart pick a couple of years ago. I love the kid and I'm still very high on him long-term because I think he's going to be a star. I also think he was probably the BPA at the time. But in terms of need, he wasn't an ideal choice because the Cs already had enough guards.

At the very worst #3 allows you to pick for your system and your needs. That alone can make or break a player's career. Don't underestimate it.

6. "The Celtics have too many picks and will get held over a barrel in trades"

Come on. This is Danny we're talking about. Since when does he get held over a barrel in trades? No, the team can't use 8 picks. But the Cs are just one team. Those picks are assets that are going to be in demand by 29 other teams. He'll find willing trade partners in those teams. After all, until you get to the 2nd round ones in the mid-40s, the picks have an inherent value. Danny isn't going to be forced to just give them away because he can't use them. There's an established market for picks just like there is any other good. It may be he just trades picks for future picks but there's no worry that he's going to get fleeced in trade deals. After all, Danny is smart enough to know that helping another team in the NBA directly hurts your team. Thus he'd waste the picks before giving them away in a lopsided deal.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this all works out by June 23rd because no matter what this 48 win team is going to get better.

Great post, Granath.

TP.

[Emmette Bryant]

There are a bunch of misconceptions about the #3 pick and the 2016 draft this year. Let's clear them up.

(1) "It's a two player draft"

No, it's not. Last year was supposedly a two player draft and the #2 player wasn't picked until #3. The time before it was a two player draft the #3 pick was a 4 time All-Star. Simply put, the only way we'll know it was a two player draft is 5 or 10 years from now. What typically happens is that there are one or two clear-cut prospects due to talent, age or hype prior to the pre-draft workouts. Most often players separate themselves in those workouts. Since those workouts haven't happened yet, there's not a lot of buzz out there yet on some other player.

For instance, if Jamal Murray comes into workouts and shows a better ability to pass or better-than-thought physical skills, he's going to SHOOT up in value. If Jaylen Brown interviews well and shows more polish then he's going to get the buzz. But until those workouts happen, we won't know.

(2) "The #3 pick is not worth that much"

Since 1980 #3 picks have actually fared better than #2 picks. In the last 15 years guys like Beal, Harden, Hortford, 'Melo and Gasol have been picked that this spot. Historically it's not cheap to trade for the #3 pick either. It's worth far more than an above-average vet or just a middle-of-the-road player.

(3) "Well, that history is all fine and nice but that has nothing to do with this particular draft"

See point #1. The player evaluations aren't in yet. What looks like an obvious truth now will look very, very different by draft night. It's always does. Plus there's always a perceived value with a draft pick that high. The Seven Dwarves could be the prime prospects this year and there would still be a perceived, historical value in being able to pick Dopey 3rd.

4. "There's no difference between #3 and #10 in this draft"

Hogwash. No one is predicting Bender, Hield or Murray to fall to #10. Right now there's a tier 1 in Simmons and Ingram. That may very well change in the pre-draft workouts. Then there's a tier 2 of Bender, Hield, Murry, Dunn and maybe Brown. That WILL change in the pre-draft workouts. Someone may move up. Someone will move down. But there's clearly a pecking order that doesn't stretch out of the top 7.

5. "There's no difference between choosing #3 and #6 in this draft"

Oh rly? So you'd just as well rather have the #6 pick? 

Simply put, even if all things were equal - and they're not - being able to pick 3rd allows a team to pick the player who is the best fit who fills the biggest need. That was the biggest problem with the Marcus Smart pick a couple of years ago. I love the kid and I'm still very high on him long-term because I think he's going to be a star. I also think he was probably the BPA at the time. But in terms of need, he wasn't an ideal choice because the Cs already had enough guards.

At the very worst #3 allows you to pick for your system and your needs. That alone can make or break a player's career. Don't underestimate it.

6. "The Celtics have too many picks and will get held over a barrel in trades"

Come on. This is Danny we're talking about. Since when does he get held over a barrel in trades? No, the team can't use 8 picks. But the Cs are just one team. Those picks are assets that are going to be in demand by 29 other teams. He'll find willing trade partners in those teams. After all, until you get to the 2nd round ones in the mid-40s, the picks have an inherent value. Danny isn't going to be forced to just give them away because he can't use them. There's an established market for picks just like there is any other good. It may be he just trades picks for future picks but there's no worry that he's going to get fleeced in trade deals. After all, Danny is smart enough to know that helping another team in the NBA directly hurts your team. Thus he'd waste the picks before giving them away in a lopsided deal.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this all works out by June 23rd because no matter what this 48 win team is going to get better.

Thanks for a nice reality based post TP

[mef730]

Some nice points. Right now, it is clear that Ingram and Simmons are the two best prospects then there is a HUGE drop. However, as you mentioned between now and draft day so much can happen. The top 2 could have some poor showing and more importantly guys with big question marks like bender murray and Brown could answer some big questions in workouts. I mean if brown comes in and shoots lights out in workouts he will rise, Bender the same. I could see teams absolutely falling in love with heild etc etc.

Problem is, at the moment it is a 2 player draft. Today our pick doesnt have half the value as the pick ahead of it and that is a huge bummer.

The nice thing about the 3-7 log jam is that I think if you asked a hundred scouts to rate them all theyd come through pretty close in ratings across the board. however, I think a bunch of teams are going to fall in love with specific players. It makes a ton of sense for Philly to want Dunn or even Murray and we are already hearing that Phoenix loves Bender. Maybe you get a team like Denver who want to put a Murray or a Hield next to Mudiay long term, or perhaps Chicago sees Dunn as the pg of the future. What if New York decides they think Dunn or Murray could be their pg of the future?

well then we could be looking at a situation where Chicago, New York, Philly, Denver, and Phoenix are all in a bidding war for that pick, inflating its value.

I agree with you. I foresee a few scenarios:

(1) Someone separates themselves from the pack to become a clear cut #3 (or even #2 like last year)
(2) Individual teams fall in love with a particular guy and want to move up. However, Danny may very well do the same and not want to trade out of that spot.
(3) If Danny doesn't fall in love, he'll move down and take the BPA plus collect more assets.

You said "Today our pick doesnt have half the value as the pick ahead of it and that is a huge bummer. "

You're 100% right. Today it doesn't because there are two guys who are perceived to be "knowns" and then there are 3-5 guys you would have to say are more "unknowns". But that's why trades - even big ones - don't usually happen until draft night. The process has to play itself out so that guys feel more or less comfortable with the "unknowns". By the time the draft rolls around the value for the 3rd pick will be established and it will without a doubt be at a higher value than it is today.

It would have been nice but I'm not lamenting that we didn't get the 1st or 2nd pick. I'm more than happy with #3 given the original trade. That this 48 win team has such an asset is a wonderful luxury. Plus, there's always this - on June 23rd all of those 20 win teams drafting around us are going to get better. But on that night the Nets won't improve their team one bit.   

Now, be nice. The Nets did manage to salvage the 55th pick.

Mike

[Granath]

Time to bump this:

(1) As it's gotten closer to the draft there's been more talk about how it's not a two player draft. There's a lot of rumors going around about Dunn being highly coveted. Guys like Jalyen Brown have supposedly performed well in workouts. I still expect Ingram to go 2nd but the 3rd pick doesn't feel like a booby prize at the fair.

(2) The #3 pick is still highly coveted. Maybe the timing isn't right to move it for an All Star this year but there are tons of rumors, including that it's worth more than last year's #3 pick.

(3) This years' draft isn't shaping up to be that bad, is it? People are talking about Brown being the next Jimmy Butler (including Jimmy Butler). Dunn is being touted as a multi-year All Star.

(4) This doesn't even need to be repeated. Does anyone think that Sabonis (who is #10 in Chad Ford's mock) will get drafted 3rd or even bear consideration at that slot?

(5) I think we've seen a clear split between the top 5 and the next group. There's #1 in Simmons - he stands alone. #2 is most likely Ingram but it's a bit shakier. #3 - #5 is probably Dunn, Brown and Bender. Then the next group seems to start (Murray, etc.). We'll find out how it all shakes out tonight.

(6) - This remains to be seen. But it's nice having options, isn't it?

Now to add point 7.

(7) It's an eternity between now and the end of the evening. Danny always plays things close to the chest. He may have trade deals already worked out. He may already be set on making the pick. But whatever happens, it will be a wild ride. So breathe. Relax. Enjoy it.

And remember one thing - the Nets aren't getting any better tonight. 

[Csfan1984]

Looks like a 8 player draft to me then a big drop.

Simmons
Ingram, Dunn, Heild,
Bender, Brown, Chriss, Murray


Ellenson, Poeltl, Lab
Davis, Zizic, Korkmaz, Sabonis
And on...

[Bobshot]

I think perceptions are colored by the media. You have that nasty NY style story by Stein of ESPN saying the Celtics are basically worthless--or at least their no.3 pick is. Keep in mind the #3 pick was formerly owned by NY's own Brooklyn Nets.  Then you have a flurry of threads on here about it--reflecting a lot of the same.

You can't take the media too seriously. They have a job to do--fill copy. They also have agendas. Didn't ESPN lie about those deflated ball pressures? Sure, they did. They are in bed with the League bosses--big money talking here. Sports-TV collusion. And NY is where the networks are.

The fact is Ainge is in the driver's seat right now. He probably even has the Lakers second thinking about maybe drafting Dunn instead of Ingram, and maybe trading for Okafor themselves. Danny then winds up with Ingram. 

Is Ainge playing games here? Much like that Costner movie about the Cleveland Browns draft?
The real question is what does he want? He hasn't shown his cards yet.

[hwangjini_1]

Looks like a 8 player draft to me then a big drop.

Simmons
Ingram, Dunn, Heild,
Bender, Brown, Chriss, Murray


Ellenson, Poeltl, Lab
Davis, Zizic, Korkmaz, Sabonis
And on...

That sounds about right, but even the players you list above as "below top" are not bad at all.  This draft is deep in players who will have long careers as rotation players in the nba.

[Csfan1984]

Looks like a 8 player draft to me then a big drop.

Simmons
Ingram, Dunn, Heild,
Bender, Brown, Chriss, Murray


Ellenson, Poeltl, Lab
Davis, Zizic, Korkmaz, Sabonis
And on...

That sounds about right, but even the players you list above as "below top" are not bad at all.  This draft is deep in players who will have long careers as rotation players in the nba.

I 100% agree. We may actually see a few guys in the second round become well known players maybe even stars. It's a flat draft after top 8. Still teams will fall for certain guys and have to make trades to get them.

[aefgogreen]

I don't see having eight picks as a problem.  Even if we don't get rid of them, there is the option of stashing internationals overseas.

And most importantly, it's not that important that we try to sign each one.  These picks are swings of the bat.  We can pick the best players available and make a determination which ones have the best chance of helping us.  If we don't sign every player we draft or trade them for something better, it's not awful.

[footey]

I think perceptions are colored by the media. You have that nasty NY style story by Stein of ESPN saying the Celtics are basically worthless--or at least their no.3 pick is. Keep in mind the #3 pick was formerly owned by NY's own Brooklyn Nets.  Then you have a flurry of threads on here about it--reflecting a lot of the same.

You can't take the media too seriously. They have a job to do--fill copy. They also have agendas. Didn't ESPN lie about those deflated ball pressures? Sure, they did. They are in bed with the League bosses--big money talking here. Sports-TV collusion. And NY is where the networks are.

The fact is Ainge is in the driver's seat right now. He probably even has the Lakers second thinking about maybe drafting Dunn instead of Ingram, and maybe trading for Okafor themselves. Danny then winds up with Ingram. 

Is Ainge playing games here? Much like that Costner movie about the Cleveland Browns draft?
The real question is what does he want? He hasn't shown his cards yet.

OK, I love to bash NY style with the best of them, but this sounds a bit paranoid. Take it easy, fella.