I'm calling it...our #3 draft pick for 2016. Buddy Hield. Boom.

[Who]

It's hard to not to see Hield becoming a 16-17ppg in the NBA when given starter's minutes.

If he can even be an average defender & rebounder, his scoring and lethal shooting will make him a valuable starting SG. Not the main guy on a team but a valuable supporting scorer to someone else's lead.

[LarBrd33]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

He's the same age as Nik Stauskas.  Here's how their stats compared:

Sauce Freshman - 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 46%/44%/85%
Hield Freshman - 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 38%/24%/83%

Sauce Sophomore - 17.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 47%/44%/82%
Hield Sophomore - 16.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 45%/39%/75%

Sauce is 6'6 205.  Hield is 6'4 215.   Obviously, Sauce had trouble getting his shot off on the NBA level.  We'll see if Hield can do it.   

It'll be interesting to see how Sauce/Hield have developed after Sauce's two years of NBA trial by fire and Hield's two seasons of beating up on younger players in the Amateurs.

[crimson_stallion]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

Yep, he is what he is.

Because we all know that once a kid reaches 23 years old, that's it.  Moving from the college game into the professional league (where you have access to far superior trainers, coaches, teammates and the like) will not do anything for a 23 year old's game...nothing at all.

Because we all know that once NBA players reach the age of 23 they hit a hard limit and have no further capacity to improve.

But Jamal Murray, the un-athletic 6'4" shooting guard with dinosaur arms who can't run, can't jump and can't dribble, is going to skyrocket to NBA superstardom because he is only 19 years old (which makes that a given). 

On that note I really think we should offer James young to the Phoenix Suns in a trade for the #5 pick, since all the 18/19 year old guy are obviously gong to go top 4, so whoever is left available at #5 is going to have no ceiling at all - we will do them a favour and send them James Young because he was 18 when we drafted him, so he is going to be a superstar for sure.

[LarBrd33]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

Yep, he is what he is.

Can someone who is obsessed with College ball answer a question for me.  How strong is the Big 12 conference?  Ben Mclemore averaged 16 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2 assists with 50%/42%/87% shooting as a Freshman in that conference.    Considering that Hield went from averaging 7.8 points to 25 points by the time he was a Senior (3.2x more points), does this mean Ben McLemore would have averaged 51.2 points had he stayed until his Senior year?

[crimson_stallion]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

He's the same age as Nik Stauskas.  Here's how their stats compared:

Sauce Freshman - 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 46%/44%/85%
Hield Freshman - 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 38%/24%/83%

Sauce Sophomore - 17.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 47%/44%/82%
Hield Sophomore - 16.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 45%/39%/75%

Sauce is 6'6 205.  Hield is 6'4 215.   Obviously, Sauce had trouble getting his shot off on the NBA level.  We'll see if Hield can do it.   

It'll be interesting to see how Sauce/Hield have developed after Sauce's two years of NBA trial by fire and Hield's two seasons of beating up on younger players in the Amateurs.

Firstly, why do you keep on bringing up guys who are NOTHING like Hield for comparison?  The only thing Stauskas and Hield have in common is that both are good outside shooters.  That's it.  You may as well be comparing Kevin Durant to Kyle Korver while you're at it.

Secondly, Hield is not 6'4".  He is 6'5" / 212 pounds with a 6'9.25" wingspan, 6% body fat and above average NBA athleticism. 

Stauskas on draft day was  6'6" / 207 pounds with 6'7" wingspan, 12% body fat and all the athleticism of a rock that's stuck in quicksand. 

In that respect, Stauskas is FAR more like Murray then he is like Hield, which is precisely why I am far more concerned about Murray working out at the NBA level. 

[LarBrd33]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

He's the same age as Nik Stauskas.  Here's how their stats compared:

Sauce Freshman - 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 46%/44%/85%
Hield Freshman - 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 38%/24%/83%

Sauce Sophomore - 17.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 47%/44%/82%
Hield Sophomore - 16.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 45%/39%/75%

Sauce is 6'6 205.  Hield is 6'4 215.   Obviously, Sauce had trouble getting his shot off on the NBA level.  We'll see if Hield can do it.   

It'll be interesting to see how Sauce/Hield have developed after Sauce's two years of NBA trial by fire and Hield's two seasons of beating up on younger players in the Amateurs.

Firstly, why do you keep on bringing up guys who are NOTHING like Hield for comparison?  The only thing Stauskas and Hield have in common is that both are good outside shooters.  That's it.  You may as well be comparing Kevin Durant to Kyle Korver while you're at it.

Secondly, Hield is not 6'4".  He is 6'5" / 212 pounds with a 6'9.25" wingspan, 6% body fat and above average NBA athleticism. 

Stauskas on draft day was  6'6" / 207 pounds with 6'7" wingspan, 12% body fat and all the athleticism of a rock that's stuck in quicksand. 

In that respect, Stauskas is FAR more like Murray then he is like Hield, which is precisely why I am far more concerned about Murray working out at the NBA level.

What kind of pro do you expect Hield to be, Crimson?  I've read that he can be a nice role player.  A one-dimensional distance shooter who will struggle to create in the pros, but could still give you 8-15 points in his prime.  Could he he have a Kyle Korver-type impact on a contender someday?

[chambers]

You're right that his age is a factor, but it's the way his game has developed over time.
He's gotten better because he's added pieces to his game and become more than a spot up shooter. His IQ and work ethic are off the charts.

He may not be able to contribute more than a bench 3 pt shooter in his first year while he learns to defend and learns the system.
The hope is that of all these guys, he (along with Murray) can put the ball in the hole and has worked hard enough to get great at doing so.

My issue with Murray is that he lacks length and athleticism and will suffer like Sauce and Fredette etc...
Hield is already an average NBA athlete stength wise and his release is lightning fast.

Of all these guys, to me he looks like the closest chance to jumping to that James Harden level-even if the chance is slim.

[alldaboston]

I would rather have Murray, but I wouldn't be exactly opposed to picking Hield. I just wouldn't be as excited.

[LarBrd33]

You're right that his age is a factor, but it's the way his game has developed over time.
He's gotten better because he's added pieces to his game and become more than a spot up shooter. His IQ and work ethic are off the charts.

He may not be able to contribute more than a bench 3 pt shooter in his first year while he learns to defend and learns the system.
The hope is that of all these guys, he (along with Murray) can put the ball in the hole and has worked hard enough to get great at doing so.

My issue with Murray is that he lacks length and athleticism and will suffer like Sauce and Fredette etc...
Hield is already an average NBA athlete stength wise and his release is lightning fast.

Of all these guys, to me he looks like the closest chance to jumping to that James Harden level-even if the chance is slim.

TP.  I'm excited about the pick no matter what.  Maybe Hield will be one of those rare guys who shows up as a major contributor and just gets better despite coming out as a Senior.   Seems to happen like once every 15 years, right?  Maybe Hield is special.

[LooseCannon]

We can't assume 100% but we can be aware of trends.  I think his age, his huge jump in mock draft ranking, and concern about whether he can play NBA-level defense in some scouting reports are all red flags, but the presence of red flags doesn't guarantee failure.  They do, however, make him have a lower probability of becoming a star than some of the other players who have been mentioned as possible picks at #3, but that probability is non-zero.

For a player like Hield, who is mature and has a strong work ethic, the gap between where he is now and where his ceiling is is usually going to be much smaller than a younger, rawer player.  There is much less of a chance for some late physical change.  He doesn't seem to be someone who is still learning his craft.  There aren't glaring holes in his game which can be fixed by learning.  If you think he is going to improve, you have to have an idea of how.  This isn't some video game where you can just level him up with more experience (points).  What is he going to do, keep increasing his three-point percentage until he's up to 58%? 

It really looks like his place in the game depends on how he is going to defend and be defended by players who are either quicker or taller/longer and often both.  There is legitimate risk that he might not be good enough at defense to be more than a role player off the bench.  He has average height and length for a SG, which probably means below average for a starter and above average for a reserve.  He didn't do any athletic testing at the combine, so we don't have any data on his vertical leap, but I think we can all agree that he is not an elite athlete.  The Celtics assessment of his draftability is probably going to depend on how they assess the limits of his athleticism in a private workout.

[crimson_stallion]

heh... i'll take your guys word for it.  His age can't be ignored.  He'll be a 23 year old rookie.  You best be very confident he's not going to come in and struggle, because most likely he is what he is.

He's the same age as Nik Stauskas.  Here's how their stats compared:

Sauce Freshman - 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 46%/44%/85%
Hield Freshman - 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 38%/24%/83%

Sauce Sophomore - 17.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 47%/44%/82%
Hield Sophomore - 16.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 45%/39%/75%

Sauce is 6'6 205.  Hield is 6'4 215.   Obviously, Sauce had trouble getting his shot off on the NBA level.  We'll see if Hield can do it.   

It'll be interesting to see how Sauce/Hield have developed after Sauce's two years of NBA trial by fire and Hield's two seasons of beating up on younger players in the Amateurs.

Firstly, why do you keep on bringing up guys who are NOTHING like Hield for comparison?  The only thing Stauskas and Hield have in common is that both are good outside shooters.  That's it.  You may as well be comparing Kevin Durant to Kyle Korver while you're at it.

Secondly, Hield is not 6'4".  He is 6'5" / 212 pounds with a 6'9.25" wingspan, 6% body fat and above average NBA athleticism. 

Stauskas on draft day was  6'6" / 207 pounds with 6'7" wingspan, 12% body fat and all the athleticism of a rock that's stuck in quicksand. 

In that respect, Stauskas is FAR more like Murray then he is like Hield, which is precisely why I am far more concerned about Murray working out at the NBA level.

What kind of pro do you expect Hield to be, Crimson?  I've read that he can be a nice role player.  A one-dimensional distance shooter who will struggle to create in the pros, but could still give you 8-15 points in his prime.  Could he he have a Kyle Korver-type impact on a contender someday?

Genuine question - have you actually watched any footage of Hield from last season?  Have you jumped not YouTube and watched the highlights of any of his 2016 games?

If you haven't, then I strongly suggest you take a modest 15-20 minutes out of your day and watch 3 or 4 of those game highlight videos just to give you an indication of exactly what Hield is capable of.

See, the thing that impresses me about Hield is not that he scores, or how much he scores.  It's how he scores that leaves me gobsmacked.

He's not your typical pure shooter -  who gets all of his points off wide open corner threes.  The vast majority of threes shots he takes seem to be either (a) on the move or (b) with a hand in his face or (c) from well beyond even the NBA three point line. 

It's not like he just sits there throwing up wide open threes all day, which is what some people seem to think.  The guy is the best scorer in college basketball - teams throw everything they have at him defensively. 

But the more important part is that when you watch footage of him, he's not only making threes.  He's blowing past defenders and hitting tough, contested, off balance layups.  He's driving into the paint, stopping on a dime, and pulling up for midrange jumper.  He's hitting contested fadeaway jumpers.  He's running hard and getting tough finishes in transition.  He's getting to the line something like 7 times a night. 

People are talking about Hield as if he is just a shooter - he's not just a shooter.  He is a straight out SCORER. 

People talk about him already reaching his ceiling, but as good as he is there are still very clearly areas where he can still improve a lot such as:

1) Ball Handling
2) Playmaking
3) Defence

He's dominant despite still having limitations in those areas, and yet they are all areas he has potential to improve at.

If you look at Murray, his weaknesses are pretty much in the same areas - Ball handling, playmaking and defence.  But unlike Hield, Murray only really has the potential to improve in two of those areas - Ball handling and playmaking.  His defence is always gong to be terrible because he simply does not have the physical tools to be a good defensive player. 

Hield does. 

The way Hield scores the ball, I have no problem at all envisioning him as a 20 PPG scorer once he's had two full NBA seasons under his belt. 

I also have no trouble envisioning him becoming one of the better defensive guards in the NBA because he has all the tools to become a good defender, and the work ethic to make it happen.

I will be pretty surprised if Hield isn't an All-Star (or if not, then very close to it) by the time his 25th birthday comes along.

[crimson_stallion]

We can't assume 100% but we can be aware of trends.  I think his age, his huge jump in mock draft ranking, and concern about whether he can play NBA-level defense in some scouting reports are all red flags, but the presence of red flags doesn't guarantee failure.  They do, however, make him have a lower probability of becoming a star than some of the other players who have been mentioned as possible picks at #3, but that probability is non-zero.

For a player like Hield, who is mature and has a strong work ethic, the gap between where he is now and where his ceiling is is usually going to be much smaller than a younger, rawer player.  There is much less of a chance for some late physical change.  He doesn't seem to be someone who is still learning his craft.  There aren't glaring holes in his game which can be fixed by learning.  If you think he is going to improve, you have to have an idea of how.  This isn't some video game where you can just level him up with more experience (points).  What is he going to do, keep increasing his three-point percentage until he's up to 58%? 

It really looks like his place in the game depends on how he is going to defend and be defended by players who are either quicker or taller/longer and often both.  There is legitimate risk that he might not be good enough at defense to be more than a role player off the bench.  He has average height and length for a SG, which probably means below average for a starter and above average for a reserve.  He didn't do any athletic testing at the combine, so we don't have any data on his vertical leap, but I think we can all agree that he is not an elite athlete.  The Celtics assessment of his draftability is probably going to depend on how they assess the limits of his athleticism in a private workout.

Hield is 6'5" with 1 6'9" wingspan.

How many star shooting guards can you think of in the NBA right now who are both significantly bigger and significantly longer than that?

There is Paul George, Klay Thompson....and I'm going to need some help here.

Lets throw out some names.

* Dwyane Wade?  Same height and length.
* Bradley Beal?  Nope.
* Kobe Bryant? He's retired.
* Joe Johnson?  He's got one foot in the proverbial grave.
* James Harden?  Same height and about the same length.
* Kris Middleton?  Similar size but less length.
* Jimmy Butler? A couple of inches taller, but less length.
* Avery Bradley?  Nope.
* Wesley Matthews?  Similar size.
* JJ Reddick?  Similar size but less length.
* Tyreke Evans?  Similar size and length.

I could keep doing all day long, but I think you probably get the point by now.  Buddy Hield is big and long enough to match up any shooting guard in the NBA aside from maybe George and Thompson, and those guys are a matchup nightmare for ANY guard.

But either way, I will ask you this question.  If you're concenred about Hield having the quickness and size to defend NBA guards, who is there that you would rather take who you feel doesn't have that concern?

Lets play a game.  I will rank the top three guard prospects in the draft based on their physical attributes, and then we will allocate points for each criteria - the player with the most points at the end wins.  In the case of ties, I will split the 2nd and 3rd place points in half.


Height
1. Buddy Hield: 6'5" (3 points)
2. Jamal Murray: 6'4.25" (1.5 points)
3. Kris Dunn: 6'4.25" (1.5 points)


Wingspan
1. Kris Dunn: 6'9.5"  (3 points)
2. Buddy Hield: 6'9.25" (2 points)
3. Jamal Murray: 6'6.5" (1 point)


Standing Reach
1.  Buddy Hield: 8'5" (3 points)
2. Kris Dunn: 8'4" (2 points)
3. Jamal Murray: 8'1" (1 point)


Weight
1. Buddy Hield: 212 lbs (3 points)
2. Kris Dunn: 205 lbs (2 points)
3. Jamal Murray: 201 lbs (1 point)


Athleticism
1. Kris Dunn (3 points)
2. Buddy Hield (2 points)
3. Jamal Murray (1 point)


Total Physicals Score
1. Buddy Hield: 13 points
2. Kris Dunn: 11.5 points
3. Jamal Murray: 5,.5 points

If there is any guard in the lottery who's physicals you should be worried about, I think it's pretty obvious who that guy is...and it's not Hield.

[LooseCannon]

I buy into how Stevens categorizes players less as the traditional five positions.  Hield is a pure wing and not a ball-handler.  After thinking it over, I may end up preferring Jaylen Brown as a wing who can defend both SFs and SGs.

Of course, I currently lean towards Dragan Bender, whose greater potential justifies the greater risk.  I emphasize defensive versatility more and go-to scoring less than most people.

[crimson_stallion]

I buy into how Stevens categorizes players less as the traditional five positions.  Hield is a pure wing and not a ball-handler.  After thinking it over, I may end up preferring Jaylen Brown as a wing who can defend both SFs and SGs.

Of course, I currently lean towards Dragan Bender, whose greater potential justifies the greater risk.  I emphasize defensive versatility more and go-to scoring less than most people.

Hield has the tools to defend PG's, SG's and all but the biggest SF's at the NBA level.  Defensive versatility is not going to be a problem.

[chambers]

We can't assume 100% but we can be aware of trends.  I think his age, his huge jump in mock draft ranking, and concern about whether he can play NBA-level defense in some scouting reports are all red flags, but the presence of red flags doesn't guarantee failure.  They do, however, make him have a lower probability of becoming a star than some of the other players who have been mentioned as possible picks at #3, but that probability is non-zero.

For a player like Hield, who is mature and has a strong work ethic, the gap between where he is now and where his ceiling is is usually going to be much smaller than a younger, rawer player.  There is much less of a chance for some late physical change.  He doesn't seem to be someone who is still learning his craft.  There aren't glaring holes in his game which can be fixed by learning.  If you think he is going to improve, you have to have an idea of how.  This isn't some video game where you can just level him up with more experience (points).  What is he going to do, keep increasing his three-point percentage until he's up to 58%? 

It really looks like his place in the game depends on how he is going to defend and be defended by players who are either quicker or taller/longer and often both.  There is legitimate risk that he might not be good enough at defense to be more than a role player off the bench.  He has average height and length for a SG, which probably means below average for a starter and above average for a reserve.  He didn't do any athletic testing at the combine, so we don't have any data on his vertical leap, but I think we can all agree that he is not an elite athlete.  The Celtics assessment of his draftability is probably going to depend on how they assess the limits of his athleticism in a private workout.

The thing is though that we don't know how high is ceiling is. He's taken such a leap on his senior year that we don't know how much better he can get. As Kobe and Bill Walton said, his game is an NBA style of game and NBA spacing should benefit his game even more.
The fact that he's got length and a very fast release mean he should get his shot off in the NBA vs NBA length.

The next step is to see how much he can improve his handle and penetration skills whilst learning how to get to the line. But if he can improve his shooting that much through plain hard work, after 2 seasons of NBA coaching he'll hopefully be a serious candidate to be a top scorer in the NBA.

Just imagine how good this guy is going to be after a season of NBA strength and ball skill training and learning from Brad. (If we pick him ).
The thought makes me smile.