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A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« on: May 06, 2016, 09:52:06 AM »

Offline mkogav

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I am about to burst. There are soooooo many expectations building article on the Celtics off season right now. Too many IMO. This is especially true for the ones which are calling for or predicting Danny to trump the 2007 off season.

A large part of these inflated expectations are a result of the way Danny and especially Wyc fail to keep exceptions down. This also happened last off season with Wyc's "Fireworks" spiel.

In a way, the Cs and Danny are a victim of their own off season success. The 2007 off season was something special, which will never be repeated. The crazy thing is that b/c of that amazing Nets trades, Danny likely has a better set of assets today than he has in 2007. That doesn't mean the Cs are on the same path or team arch as the 2007 team. If this current squad is ever to reach contender/championship level, it's story will be unique.

My main worry is that the Cs don't land  #1/2 or a star via FA or trade and force something b/c of the expectations. Danny doesn't normally force anything. The only deals which felt forced were the Perk/Green and Antoine Walker/Raef LaFrentz deals. One could argue that Danny trading up during the 2013 draft to select a safe pick in KO over just selecting a high risk/high reward International player like Giannis, Schroder, or Lucas Nogueira was also forced.

Please don't get me wrong, I would be excited for the Cs to land Cousins, KD, Butler, etc... I would be equally excited to see Simmons or Ingram drafted by the Cs. If Danny drafts & develop Bender or Jaylen Brown, I am very good with that to.

I want to see the Cs build towards #18. I don't need all of the construction done in the next 75 days. I would be fine with a slower track, watching Smart, Simmons/Ingram/Bender/Brown, Young, Crowder, Rozier, Hunter, 2017 Nets pick, etc... develop.

Thoughts on this or how you would feel if the Cs go into next season with a similar team + a guy like Jaylen Brown, Bender, or Domantas Sabonis?

Mk

Sickness, insanity and death were the angels that surrounded my cradle and they have followed me throughout my life - Edvard Munch


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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2016, 10:06:58 AM »

Offline acieEarl

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Cs have too many assets to sit still. Ainge can't draft 8 guys. It would be a let down and a shock if we don't end up with at least 1 top free agent and/or a couple trades in the draft.

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2016, 10:09:33 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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In answer to the OP, the off-season would be an abysmal failure in your scenario.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2016, 10:19:01 AM »

Offline mkogav

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In answer to the OP, the off-season would be an abysmal failure in your scenario.

Yep, exceptions are out of control.

Remember the summer when D12 left the Lakers? Everybody wanted him, including Golden State. There were rumors that GS was working on a deal to move a young Klay Thompson  & Bogut to the Lakers in a S&T deal. The even signed AI2 to make GS more appealing. Howard still wanted nothing to do with them.

Two seasons ago Golden State offered everything short of Curry and Thompson for Kevin Love. There were rebuffed by the Wolves, who only had eyes for Klay.

Both of those two off seasons would be considered abysmal failures to.

Mk


Sickness, insanity and death were the angels that surrounded my cradle and they have followed me throughout my life - Edvard Munch


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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2016, 10:22:33 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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In answer to the OP, the off-season would be an abysmal failure in your scenario.
which one are you referring to, and why? OP gave us a few to consider.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2016, 10:22:44 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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In answer to the OP, the off-season would be an abysmal failure in your scenario.

Yep, exceptions are out of control.

Remember the summer when D12 left the Lakers? Everybody wanted him, including Golden State. There were rumors that GS was working on a deal to move a young Klay Thompson  & Bogut to the Lakers in a S&T deal. The even signed AI2 to make GS more appealing. Howard still wanted nothing to do with them.

Two seasons ago Golden State offered everything short of Curry and Thompson for Kevin Love. There were rebuffed by the Wolves, who only had eyes for Klay.

Both of those two off seasons would be considered abysmal failures to.

Mk

Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer. They either meet them, or they look like fools. The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2016, 10:25:10 AM »

Offline mkogav

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Cs have too many assets to sit still. Ainge can't draft 8 guys. It would be a let down and a shock if we don't end up with at least 1 top free agent and/or a couple trades in the draft.

It's true about the Cs having too many picks. They had too many picks last season to. There is no way the June draft goes by without Danny moving some picks.

I have doubts that Danny will be able to land a star via trades or FA. There are sooo many teams with both quality assets, highs picks and or good prospects, and cap space to burn, e.g. LAL, PHO, PHI, ORL, DEN, SAC, MIL, and NO. It's a seller's market. It would likely take a gross overpay to get a player at PG13, Cousins, or Bulter's level.

Mk


Sickness, insanity and death were the angels that surrounded my cradle and they have followed me throughout my life - Edvard Munch


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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2016, 10:31:52 AM »

Offline mkogav

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Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

I am not sure what you mean by muted. IMO, Ainge does very well in the draft. I noted his KO trade/pick b/c it felt forced, not as a representation of Ainge's drafting ability.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer.

Agreed.

They either meet them, or they look like fools.

This is my point. I don't believe Danny or Wyc care if they look like fools. I don't care either. I only care about them forcing bad decisions, draft, FA, or trades..


The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.

I used Bender and Brown as examples b/c they are rated high in almost every mock. You may sub in whoever outside of Simmons and Brown that you like the most.

Mk

Sickness, insanity and death were the angels that surrounded my cradle and they have followed me throughout my life - Edvard Munch


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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2016, 10:48:24 AM »

Offline CelticGuardian

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I just want Danny to make cohesive decisions. The team will without a doubt undergo changes via trade.

 I'm still surprised Danny got no trades done in last year's draft. We simply have too many inexperienced players potentially coming in through that door, only for them to see little to no experience on the pro level like our current inexperienced players(Smart is a special case around here). And I actually like Hunter, Mickey, and Rozier... these guys had flashes of what they can be with more reps and an opportunity to get comfortable playing at this big of a stage.

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2016, 10:48:55 AM »

Offline celticmania

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Obviously Danny is going to try to make moves. People are going to be upset if he doesn't but i definitely will not be upset if no major moves are made because I know he is going to try. Some people think this is GM mode in NBA 2k or something where you can force trades and sign any free agent you want. In real life other teams have to agree to trades and real people (players) have to agree to come here.  It's not like Danny can force moves he wants to happen.  We know for a fact he is going to be active like always trying to make big moves.  That is all we can hope for. Don't set expectations to high. If we have the same team minus Sullinger plus whatever pick we land.. That'll be disappointing but I have a feeling everyone is going to blame Danny which is totally unfair.

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2016, 11:08:58 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

I am not sure what you mean by muted. IMO, Ainge does very well in the draft. I noted his KO trade/pick b/c it felt forced, not as a representation of Ainge's drafting ability.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer.

Agreed.

They either meet them, or they look like fools.

This is my point. I don't believe Danny or Wyc care if they look like fools. I don't care either. I only care about them forcing bad decisions, draft, FA, or trades..


The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.

I used Bender and Brown as examples b/c they are rated high in almost every mock. You may sub in whoever outside of Simmons and Brown that you like the most.

Mk

Ainge's drafting record is littered with failure: James Young, Fab Melo, Sullinger, JR Giddens, JJ Johnson, R.J. Hunter ... the list goes on. Where would this franchise be had he not passed on DeAndre Jordan, the Greek Freak, etc.

He is an astute trader. That is where his strength lies. He will never be able to build a champion here through the draft. He simply is not an astute enough college talent evaluator.

Again, the status quo, which is a poorly constructed roster of players who cannot shoot, is simply not acceptable for another season. I don't for a minute believe that Brad Stevens is willing to wait forever for significant roster upgrades and continue trying to overachieve in the NBA with a clear lack of roster talent.

We get this same tired refrain from Ainge and Grousbeck every summer. It is time for them to put up or shut up.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2016, 11:11:36 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'm hoping for Simmons, Ingram, Butler, Cousins, Durant and/or Horford, but I'm expecting the team to add two draft picks and sign quality veterans to one year deals (similar to Amir's deal last year) in order to keep money open for the 2017 free agent class.

Expecting the C's to trade for a star is a bad idea IMO. I don't want Danny to trade for a star if it means wildly overpaying and stripping the team of what made it enjoyable the last two years. Jimmy Butler might be fun to add but if we are giving up Crowder, Smart, Amir and two Nets picks I don't think it makes us better long term (even though the casual fan would think it's a huge win).
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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2016, 11:26:35 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

I am not sure what you mean by muted. IMO, Ainge does very well in the draft. I noted his KO trade/pick b/c it felt forced, not as a representation of Ainge's drafting ability.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer.

Agreed.

They either meet them, or they look like fools.

This is my point. I don't believe Danny or Wyc care if they look like fools. I don't care either. I only care about them forcing bad decisions, draft, FA, or trades..


The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.

I used Bender and Brown as examples b/c they are rated high in almost every mock. You may sub in whoever outside of Simmons and Brown that you like the most.

Mk

Ainge's drafting record is littered with failure: James Young, Fab Melo, Sullinger, JR Giddens, JJ Johnson, R.J. Hunter ... the list goes on. Where would this franchise be had he not passed on DeAndre Jordan, the Greek Freak, etc.

He is an astute trader. That is where his strength lies. He will never be able to build a champion here through the draft. He simply is not an astute enough college talent evaluator.

Again, the status quo, which is a poorly constructed roster of players who cannot shoot, is simply not acceptable for another season. I don't for a minute believe that Brad Stevens is willing to wait forever for significant roster upgrades and continue trying to overachieve in the NBA with a clear lack of roster talent.

We get this same tired refrain from Ainge and Grousbeck every summer. It is time for them to put up or shut up.

Literally all the players you mention were late first round players bar Young. What expectation do you have for those picks? Getting a player that sticks around longer than 3 years is an achievement. 30 teams passed on Jordan so he can't be faulted any more than the others. The Greek Freak I can agree with but even there many GMs passed on him.

To the OP, it certainly wouldn't be the best scenario to end up in. I'd at least like to see picks get consolidated, whether that be jumping into the back end of the lottery or traded for a guy on his rookie contract.
I'm confident that Danny won't rush things. If there isn't a trade he likes he can draft well and keep waiting. We have 2 more years of Nets' picks, some of the 2nd round picks can be used on draft and stash guys to see how they pan out.

A disappointing offseason would be the #5 pick and no movement in FA. That would be a gut punch

Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2016, 11:29:32 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

I am not sure what you mean by muted. IMO, Ainge does very well in the draft. I noted his KO trade/pick b/c it felt forced, not as a representation of Ainge's drafting ability.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer.

Agreed.

They either meet them, or they look like fools.

This is my point. I don't believe Danny or Wyc care if they look like fools. I don't care either. I only care about them forcing bad decisions, draft, FA, or trades..


The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.

I used Bender and Brown as examples b/c they are rated high in almost every mock. You may sub in whoever outside of Simmons and Brown that you like the most.

Mk

Ainge's drafting record is littered with failure: James Young, Fab Melo, Sullinger, JR Giddens, JJ Johnson, R.J. Hunter ... the list goes on. Where would this franchise be had he not passed on DeAndre Jordan, the Greek Freak, etc.

He is an astute trader. That is where his strength lies. He will never be able to build a champion here through the draft. He simply is not an astute enough college talent evaluator.

Again, the status quo, which is a poorly constructed roster of players who cannot shoot, is simply not acceptable for another season. I don't for a minute believe that Brad Stevens is willing to wait forever for significant roster upgrades and continue trying to overachieve in the NBA with a clear lack of roster talent.
I think your review of Ainge's draft record is littered with excessively high expectations. The success rate of players picked at the end of the first round is extremely low. The highest pick among the players you listed was the 17th pick.

Ainge is better drafter than most in the NBA (at worst he's average), but no one is perfect everyone misses on some picks and when we are selecting in the bottom third of the first most years the likelihood you miss a pick is much higher.


http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Predicting-NBA-Draft-Success-and-Failure-through-Historical-Trends-1362/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/

Here are two articles on the success based on draft positioning. The first one is old but states that 83% of the players drafted in the last quarter of the first round are either bench players or out of the NBA. The other article posts that players drafted between the 20th and 30th pick will produce between ~9 and 6 wins in the first five years of their careers. Jared Sullinger has produced 15.4 wins so I don't think he belongs in that group. James Young and RJ Hunter are too early to tell on and the other two are clearly failures.

However, you failed to mention other quality players he has drafted in that range and later E'Twaun Moore, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen, Delonte West, Al Jefferson, and Darius Songalia all well outproduced their draft slot.

My point is that you can't just cherry pick Ainge's bad picks made in the bottom third of the draft and decide he's a bad drafter.
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Re: A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2016, 11:31:42 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Yours are far too muted and clearly too reliant on the one thing Ainge does not do well - draft.

I am not sure what you mean by muted. IMO, Ainge does very well in the draft. I noted his KO trade/pick b/c it felt forced, not as a representation of Ainge's drafting ability.

He and Grousbeck have stated their own expectations for the summer.

Agreed.

They either meet them, or they look like fools.

This is my point. I don't believe Danny or Wyc care if they look like fools. I don't care either. I only care about them forcing bad decisions, draft, FA, or trades..


The status quo - and your proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender - is unacceptable.

I used Bender and Brown as examples b/c they are rated high in almost every mock. You may sub in whoever outside of Simmons and Brown that you like the most.

Mk

Ainge's drafting record is littered with failure: James Young, Fab Melo, Sullinger, JR Giddens, JJ Johnson, R.J. Hunter ... the list goes on. Where would this franchise be had he not passed on DeAndre Jordan, the Greek Freak, etc.

He is an astute trader. That is where his strength lies. He will never be able to build a champion here through the draft. He simply is not an astute enough college talent evaluator.

Again, the status quo, which is a poorly constructed roster of players who cannot shoot, is simply not acceptable for another season. I don't for a minute believe that Brad Stevens is willing to wait forever for significant roster upgrades and continue trying to overachieve in the NBA with a clear lack of roster talent.

We get this same tired refrain from Ainge and Grousbeck every summer. It is time for them to put up or shut up.

Literally all the players you mention were late first round players bar Young. What expectation do you have for those picks? Getting a player that sticks around longer than 3 years is an achievement. 30 teams passed on Jordan so he can't be faulted any more than the others. The Greek Freak I can agree with but even there many GMs passed on him.

To the OP, it certainly wouldn't be the best scenario to end up in. I'd at least like to see picks get consolidated, whether that be jumping into the back end of the lottery or traded for a guy on his rookie contract.
I'm confident that Danny won't rush things. If there isn't a trade he likes he can draft well and keep waiting. We have 2 more years of Nets' picks, some of the 2nd round picks can be used on draft and stash guys to see how they pan out.

A disappointing offseason would be the #5 pick and no movement in FA. That would be a gut punch
Agree with all of this TP!

Even if we just picked 5th and didn't sign any long term deals I don't think it will have been a bad offseason, because we have a young improving team and we put ourselves in a position to dig into a far superior free agent class in 2017.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19