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New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« on: May 05, 2016, 02:04:51 PM »

Offline mef730

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They did a mock lottery. Even the mock hates us, putting us 5th.

#thisisouryear

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The NBA draft lottery is less than two weeks away.

The Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) have the best odds of winning the lottery.

There is a debate among teams about whether Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram should be the No. 1 pick. After that, Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield are projected to be among the next college stars off the board.

Starting Thursday, we will conduct a series of mock drafts based on different outcomes from our lottery generator.

First up: The Sixers, followed by the Kings and Timberwolves.

Here is how the first 10 picks could play out under this scenario (ESPN Insider Chad Ford will select first and alternate with Kevin Pelton):

1. Philadelphia 76ers


Ben Simmons
LSU
freshman
forward


Ford: Sixers fans have been waiting patiently not only to win the lottery but to draft their first real star.

While I understand the "draft Brandon Ingram" movement and see him as potentially a better fit in Philly than Simmons, I still believe Simmons is the right player here.

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Yes, concerns about his shooting and intensity are there. But he does things as both a passer and rebounder that few prospects could ever do. And given that the Sixers actually desperately need a point guard, is it weird to consider Simmons filling that position?

Pelton: It's not weird, but I'm not sure my Sixers' co-GM is going to love that plan once he finds out I'm picking a point guard at No. 4. Either way, I agree Simmons is the pick for Philadelphia.

2. Sacramento Kings


Brandon Ingram
Duke
freshman
forward


Pelton: This is the best possible draft pick for the Kings, who would have to swap with Philadelphia if they are awarded a higher pick.

I think Vlade Divac would be tempted to swing for the fences with Dragan Bender, but ultimately there's no way he can pass on Ingram given the consensus that there's a jump down after the top two prospects.

Ford: Knowing the Kings, I think they'd grab Hield here. Seriously. I hear Vlade loves him. He loves Bender, too, but with any other team, I think there's no way Ingram falls below No. 2.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves


Jamal Murray
Kentucky
freshman
guard


Ford: A lights-out shooter seems to be the biggest need for the Wolves.

While Hield might be a better shooter overall (at least this past season), Murray was terrific from 3-point range and has the versatility to play both guard spots. For the most talented young team in basketball, the rich keep getting richer.

Pelton: I'd strongly consider Bender here since he fills a greater positional need at power forward. However, this pick is growing on me since I think Murray could play with both Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers)


Kris Dunn
Providence
junior
guard


Pelton: This is the dream scenario for the Sixers, who land both the No. 1 pick and the highest possible pick from the Lakers (which is top-three protected).

That said, with Murray off the board, the best talent is in the frontcourt, and I don't think Philadelphia can afford to take another big man. So I think Dunn is the play.

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Ford: Agreed that Dunn seems like an obvious fit, Kevin. And he's a very good one.

The Sixers can no longer play without a real point guard. But I wonder whether Hield might be the better fit if you're going to use Simmons as your de facto point guard. They desperately need shooting and a dynamic scorer, and Hield fits both needs.

5. Boston Celtics


Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
senior
guard


Ford: The Celtics could also use more shooting in their backcourt. In the postseason, no one who saw regular minutes cracked 35 percent from 3, and the guy who got closest, Marcus Smart, isn't a great shooter.

Hield is a dynamic player. And while the backcourt may already be crowded with Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley, adding an elite shooter can't hurt things.

Pelton: Agreed. Bender is again in the mix if Danny Ainge wants to swing for the fences, but you're spot on about Boston's need for shooting.

6. Phoenix Suns


Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
forward/center


Pelton: Hey, finally a team that needs Bender! I don't think where he goes in this mock should be a reflection on his talent. Phoenix should be thrilled to still get Bender despite sliding a bit in the lottery.

Ford: This is a good fit for Bender. With Markieff Morris shipped off to the Wizards at the trade deadline, I could see him filling a similar role.

7. New Orleans Pelicans


Henry Ellenson
Marquette
freshman
forward/center


Ford: I can see Ellenson doing a lot of the same things that Ryan Anderson has done for the Pelicans -- but at a fraction of the cost.

With Anderson hitting free agency this summer, he'll command a monster deal somewhere. Ellenson has the same ability to stretch the floor, and I think his versatility offensively may make him, in two or three years, the better player.

Pelton: Well, I wouldn't say the same ability to stretch the floor. Ellenson made less than 30 percent of his 3s from the college line as a freshman.

I do think Ellenson is a better shooter than that, though, and he's definitely a cheaper alternative.

8. Denver Nuggets



Marquese Chriss
Washington
freshman
forward


Pelton: I think most mock drafts will have Jaylen Brown in this spot. That's not the worst idea, though I'm skeptical of Brown's potential. His athleticism would be highlighted in transition and the Nuggets could essentially play him at power forward in smaller lineups alongside Danilo Gallinari.

Still, I think Chriss is the better fit, bringing a combination of athleticism and shooting Denver doesn't have that would complement Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic.

Ford: I'm a huge fan of Chriss and personally I'd be tempted to take him ahead of both Bender and Ellenson. There's a higher risk there, but after Simmons and Ingram, I'm not sure there's a guy with a higher ceiling.

To me he's an obvious choice if he lasts this long -- especially on a team that could really use an upgrade at the 4.

9. Toronto Raptors


Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
freshman
forward/center


Ford: Labissiere is a big risk here, but Toronto GM Masai Ujiri is a big risk taker and the talent makes him an intriguing fit long term for the Raptors. They need help at power forward, and a stretch 4 seems especially appealing.

On the downside, Ujiri has always been a fan of tough players. There doesn't seem to be much of that in Labissiere, and that could cause Ujiri to perhaps go with someone like Domantas Sabonis instead.

Pelton: If Labissiere hits, I could see him fitting well with Jonas Valanciunas. The question is: How likely is that scenario?

10. Milwaukee Bucks


Jakob Poeltl
Utah
sophomore
center


Pelton: There's no more obvious meeting of talent, need and availability in the top 10 than the Bucks ending up with Poeltl. None of the teams ahead of Milwaukee really needs a center, so the Bucks will likely have the option of adding the skilled 7-footer to their center rotation.

Ford: Totally agree. I think Poeltl being a Buck is the closest thing I can find to a lock in this lottery.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2016, 02:57:52 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I thought this one had already been posted somewhere but I could be mistaken.

I can't put any faith in a mock draft that relies on both Sacramento and Minnesota jumping into the top 3.  1 of them, maybe, but not both.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 03:00:05 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I thought this one had already been posted somewhere but I could be mistaken.

I can't put any faith in a mock draft that relies on both Sacramento and Minnesota jumping into the top 3.  1 of them, maybe, but not both.

Honestly it's just our luck dude
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2016, 03:02:19 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I can't see Boston passing on Bender at 5 as I think they would take him at 3.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2016, 03:05:01 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I can't put any faith in a mock draft that relies on both Sacramento and Minnesota jumping into the top 3.  1 of them, maybe, but not both.

I think they just do one mock lotto sim and go with that.  This was just an unusual result.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2016, 03:06:40 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I wonder if getting the 2nd pick would make the Kings more likely to rebuild around whoever they get between Ingram/Simmons.

If the Kings do rebuild, it would make sense for him to deal Boogie for Buddy or Bender and other pieces.

While my initial thoughts on this mock are that we would be screwed if we picked 5th, if this lotto order makes a deal for Boogie more likely then I think this is a great outcome.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2016, 03:17:59 PM »

Offline csfansince60s

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I thought this one had already been posted somewhere but I could be mistaken.

I can't put any faith in a mock draft that relies on both Sacramento and Minnesota jumping into the top 3.  1 of them, maybe, but not both.

Honestly it's just our luck dude

Why so glum, chum?

Like this one better?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25575919/nba-mock-draft-2016-providences-kris-dunn-goes-in-top-3-in-this-scenario

Quote
or this week's mock draft, we've decided to change things up a bit in order to show how dependent the draft will be on how the lottery shakes out.

Instead of going with just the No. 1 through No. 14 based on the lottery odds, we projected our own lottery outcome. The Brooklyn Nets' pick owed to the Boston Celtics came out on top, with the Lakers staying at No. 2 and the Pelicans moving up from No. 6 to No. 3. That means Philadelphia fell to No. 4, the Suns fell to No. 5, and the Timberwolves went to No. 6.

In the process, that really shook up the order of players selected. Instead of Dragan Bender going No. 3, he falls a bit, As opposed to Kris Dunn falling a bit to No. 8, he rises all the way up to No. 3. This goes to show one thing: however the lottery shakes out, it's going to really shake up the draft's Nos. 3 through 11 picks, at least. The players in that area are so tightly bunched together -- and the difference in the talent level between them and the players below them is so small -- that this draft could be rather unpredictable and the way the draft shakes out will be highly dependent on how things go on May 19.
NBA Mock Draft
Round 1
1. Boston Celtics
   Ben Simmons, SF, LSU: With the Celtics winning the lottery in this iteration of the mock draft, they are the lucky team that gets to choose between Simmons and Ingram. Do the floor-spacing starved Celts go with a big shooter in Ingram, or a more versatile weapon in Simmons? They'll undoubtedly be thrilled to have the choice, but I've gone with Simmons here as Brad Stevens tends to value guys like this heavily. Also, the Celtics' superb defense and development system would seem tailor made to get the best out of the Australian forward who has potential on that end, but nothing in the way of production. Still though, this one will come all the way down to the wire and come down to how each player interviews with teams.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
   Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke: Not a change here in the lottery, as the Lakers get lucky and stay at No. 2. Ingram is the perfect fit for them, and he'd possibly be the pick even if they ended up at No. 1. Ingram is a year younger than Simmons, can space the floor in lineups with Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson on the floor, and can possibly become an all-star to build around on the wing next to D'Angelo Russell. That would be one heck of a creative duo at the 2 and 3 spots, so the Lakers would be ecstatic to end up in this situation.
3. New Orleans Pelicans
   Kris Dunn, PG, Providence: The Pelicans get lucky here and bump down some teams to jump into the lottery. The problem with projecting their pick at this point though is that no one knows who the general manager that will be making it is going to be. Will Dell Demps keep the job? Will Mickey Loomis step into a larger role? Will it be someone different? It's just about impossible to say at this point. If it's Demps, it's almost impossible to imagine this pick being Croatian Dragan Bender, given that he's still a bit of a project at this stage. Instead, I think they would go with more of a ready-made contributor and snatch up a player like Kris Dunn, who could team well with Anthony Davis both on the offensive and defensive ends. Until we news otherwise on Demps' job, let's go with that idea.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
   Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky: Undoubtedly, the Sixers here are the biggest losers of this draft projection, falling from No. 1 to No. 4. In his history as a general manager, Bryan Colangelo has never shied away from international players or from young, inexperienced wings with potential. But given that the Sixers' front court is full, let's shoot them a two-guard who can help them space the floor in Murray. The Kentucky product hit 40 percent of his 3s and has some potential still as a ball-handler and passer that he didn't get to show last season due to Kentucky's lack of spacing around him. He'd be a nice consolation prize.

Or just play on your own till you get one that you like:

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2016/mockdraft

No worries, this is our year for #1 or #2!!!


Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2016, 03:53:26 PM »

Offline the TRUTH

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I trust Danny to make the right decision if we actually use the pick (instead of trading it).

What annoys me about these mock drafts is that some GM's, and Danny definitely falls in this category, rarely draft for need. He's taking the best player available all day, especially that high in the draft. So if we end up taking Hield, it won't be to upgrade a flaw on the current roster, but it'll be because Danny legitimately thinks Hield is the best player available.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2016, 04:04:02 PM »

Offline acieEarl

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I would be pretty happy to see LA miss out on their pick. Still hoping for a top 2 pick but after the first 2 picks there's not a huge difference between 3-8.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2016, 04:33:54 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I would be pretty happy to see LA miss out on their pick. Still hoping for a top 2 pick but after the first 2 picks there's not a huge difference between 3-8.

Yeah, I have already convinced myself that we will end up at 5 and LAL will end up 1-2. Any scenario where LAL loses their pick would be AMAZING!! And if we somehow pull into the top 2, I might lose my marbles.

Either way, I don't think I will be able to watch the draft lottery live - too prepared for disappointment in real-time. I would rather just click on CB moments after and see how it panned out.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2016, 06:38:20 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I can't see Boston passing on Bender at 5 as I think they would take him at 3.

Agreed. Whilst I can appreciate people#s arguments that Bender should go below Murray and possibly Brown, to go below Hield is not at all likely.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2016, 06:43:55 PM »

Offline loco_91

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Ugh. If we take Hield with Bender and Poeltl both still on the board...

The only redeeming thing about this mock is that the Lakers lose their lotto pick. But Sacramento landing Ingram? Really?! I guess the lottery balls do sometimes love the crappiest organizations (cough, Cavs, cough).

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2016, 06:50:20 PM »

Offline Denis998

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Ugh. If we take Hield with Bender and Poeltl both still on the board...

The only redeeming thing about this mock is that the Lakers lose their lotto pick. But Sacramento landing Ingram? Really?! I guess the lottery balls do sometimes love the crappiest organizations (cough, Cavs, cough).
Without question, Buddy Hield is a vastly superior player when compared to the likes of bender and poeltl. He has had a historical season, and fills the needs we have as a team.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2016, 07:39:01 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Surprising that Brown doesn't even crack the top 10.

I'd take Bender at 5 in this scenario, although I do like Hield as well.  Prefer both to Murray or Dunn.

Re: New Ford/Pelton Top 10 Mock
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 08:27:56 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Surprising that Brown doesn't even crack the top 10.

I'd take Bender at 5 in this scenario, although I do like Hield as well.  Prefer both to Murray or Dunn.

Pelton hates Brown. He doesn't do well in the advanced metrics. Pelton often ignores anything else