Author Topic: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine  (Read 20712 times)

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Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2016, 08:35:15 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2016, 08:36:04 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I guess one of the questions I have is, why is Bender such a dream prospect while Maker is now considered trash? What are the differences between them that make one so much more desirable than the other?

Also, I don't know how the draft combine works, but I'd imagine that if Bender really wanted to showcase his skills, he would skip his last game and come to the combine. It's not like he is an integral part of the team and he is slated as a top 3-4 pick; I am sure every team would LOVE to see him.

He can't just skip the last game, he's under contract. In fact he's under contract after the season ends too. He'd need an NBA buyout to occur. It would be very unprofessional for him to miss the last game, hardly sets a good impression to the teams. "Yeah I'm happy to skip the team stuff to further my own goals"...

As for Maker, I think its because aside from one youtube video he's not that great. When the video emerged and the hype machine got rolling the guys in the know still thought of him as a late first prospect. Bender has been touted for good things since he was 15 and scouts have followed him keenly since then.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2016, 08:36:18 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Some Dragen Bender Highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzqJyADNaJI
I had to use a different player because no highlights exist for Dragen Bender.

TP for that! haha

Well Bender pretty much is a really, really, really poor man's Bargnani so well called :)

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2016, 08:41:13 AM »

Offline ederson

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Genuine question, last year when Mudiay had been injured the whole year, or when Irving played like 3 games for Duke, why did most people give them a pass and continue to rank them at the top of the board, yet with Bender he's a scrub who suddenly can't play? Just curious if people would be saying the same things if the guy was named Dwayne Lemarcus from Ohio...

Those guys still produced when they got time.

In Bender's case, he is almost pure potential, with no foundation of production to project from.  It doesn't make him a scrub, but at the same time he hasn't proven himself.

That's the thing though. His per minute production is good, he just hasn't gotten the minutes. But he does have previous years of data, albeit at a lower level, which we can use to project forward.

So you are saying that Bender could contribute more to a struggling team but because he wants to leave they don`t use him? I find it a bit hard to believe ....

Young players do get play time if they prove they can actually help their teams. Vezenkov at 19 was MVP of the Greek league , definately better than the Israeli league.
Porzingis was a 20mpg player in ACB and 2 times All young ACB team
Galinari and Belineli were stars in Italy , so where the Gasols.

BTW B Jenkins wasn`t just some guy who played in Italy. Was considered a top prospect because of his performance and because of his body type
So some of that is misleading. Looking at basketball-reference for context;
Ginobilli was 22 in his first year recorded there so I can't compare his stats at the age of 18.
Belinelli got 16mpg at 18 averaging 5.4ppg, 1.0rpg and 0.7apg
Porzingis was a 20mpg player when he was 19, when he was 18 he was a 15mpg player 6.7ppg, 2.8rpg, 0.3apg
Vezenkov I will concede, he's a good player. He got no Euroleague play however fwiw

Bender is projected a lot higher than those guys were at 18 which is where the argument is. Not should he be drafted but are we happy using the #3 pick on him as opposed to #15-17. I think yes because he has attributes that often lead to the making of a high level player. Mental drive, very good athleticism, high motor, good work ethic, good shot mechanics, improving shooting percentages to name a few.

I think the point with Jennings is that he was a good High school player in the US that would have received heavy minutes on an NCAA team. However in Europe he received fewer minutes. The comparison being that if Bender had been in the American system then he would have received a larger role on a college team and there would be fewer questions on him deserving the #3 pick

Starting with your last point. A lot of ifs don`t you thing? Can you draft like this? The fact is that he failed to get minutes in a very bad team against very poor opposition. And (repeating myself again) he isn`t much better facing other 18yo. 
Take a look at this statline European U18 championship 2015
PF : 16ppg 8rpg 5apg  32% 3p , MVP  (while not 100% ready)

This is what IMHO a top pick should look like against guys in his age. But i  can`t find anything comparable by Bender.  (btw the player is Charalampopoulos, great player but not NBA body)

I didn`t mention Ginobili cause as you said it he was a bit of a late bloomer. But he was drafted 57th overall not 3rd!As for the others (and with a little search i can find many more examples) you are making my point. The all have better (even a little) stats in much tougher league Unless you are honestly comparing ACB and the Italian league to the Israeli league. NBA vs NBDL ......

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2016, 08:47:54 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Genuine question, last year when Mudiay had been injured the whole year, or when Irving played like 3 games for Duke, why did most people give them a pass and continue to rank them at the top of the board, yet with Bender he's a scrub who suddenly can't play? Just curious if people would be saying the same things if the guy was named Dwayne Lemarcus from Ohio...

Those guys still produced when they got time.

In Bender's case, he is almost pure potential, with no foundation of production to project from.  It doesn't make him a scrub, but at the same time he hasn't proven himself.

That's the thing though. His per minute production is good, he just hasn't gotten the minutes. But he does have previous years of data, albeit at a lower level, which we can use to project forward.

So you are saying that Bender could contribute more to a struggling team but because he wants to leave they don`t use him? I find it a bit hard to believe ....

Young players do get play time if they prove they can actually help their teams. Vezenkov at 19 was MVP of the Greek league , definately better than the Israeli league.
Porzingis was a 20mpg player in ACB and 2 times All young ACB team
Galinari and Belineli were stars in Italy , so where the Gasols.

BTW B Jenkins wasn`t just some guy who played in Italy. Was considered a top prospect because of his performance and because of his body type
So some of that is misleading. Looking at basketball-reference for context;
Ginobilli was 22 in his first year recorded there so I can't compare his stats at the age of 18.
Belinelli got 16mpg at 18 averaging 5.4ppg, 1.0rpg and 0.7apg
Porzingis was a 20mpg player when he was 19, when he was 18 he was a 15mpg player 6.7ppg, 2.8rpg, 0.3apg
Vezenkov I will concede, he's a good player. He got no Euroleague play however fwiw

Bender is projected a lot higher than those guys were at 18 which is where the argument is. Not should he be drafted but are we happy using the #3 pick on him as opposed to #15-17. I think yes because he has attributes that often lead to the making of a high level player. Mental drive, very good athleticism, high motor, good work ethic, good shot mechanics, improving shooting percentages to name a few.

I think the point with Jennings is that he was a good High school player in the US that would have received heavy minutes on an NCAA team. However in Europe he received fewer minutes. The comparison being that if Bender had been in the American system then he would have received a larger role on a college team and there would be fewer questions on him deserving the #3 pick

Starting with your last point. A lot of ifs don`t you thing? Can you draft like this? The fact is that he failed to get minutes in a very bad team against very poor opposition. And (repeating myself again) he isn`t much better facing other 18yo. 
Take a look at this statline European U18 championship 2015
PF : 16ppg 8rpg 5apg  32% 3p , MVP  (while not 100% ready)

This is what IMHO a top pick should look like against guys in his age. But i  can`t find anything comparable by Bender.  (btw the player is Charalampopoulos, great player but not NBA body)

I didn`t mention Ginobili cause as you said it he was a bit of a late bloomer. But he was drafted 57th overall not 3rd!As for the others (and with a little search i can find many more examples) you are making my point. The all have better (even a little) stats in much tougher league Unless you are honestly comparing ACB and the Italian league to the Israeli league. NBA vs NBDL ......

Yes there are ifs and buts. I wouldn't draft like that, but if I were a scout I'd have far more info on a highly touted prospect like Bender than some per game stats on basketball-reference. Aren't people at all curious why he's ranked so high? Why he's the consensus #3? Or do you think that the people who are really in the know have lost their minds? And it's not Porzingis hype before you start...

Sorry I read Galinari as Ginobilli for some reason.. I'm not going to make excuses for him, I've covered before why he has struggled for minutes this year. However he comes into the workout season as the incumbent in the #3 slot and will need good workouts to justify it. That's when we'll start to have some clarity on whether the hype is justified or not.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #50 on: May 05, 2016, 08:52:41 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #51 on: May 05, 2016, 09:28:20 AM »

Offline clover

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Nice. He doesn't look like a SAS sort of pick.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #52 on: May 05, 2016, 09:37:04 AM »

Offline ederson

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Genuine question, last year when Mudiay had been injured the whole year, or when Irving played like 3 games for Duke, why did most people give them a pass and continue to rank them at the top of the board, yet with Bender he's a scrub who suddenly can't play? Just curious if people would be saying the same things if the guy was named Dwayne Lemarcus from Ohio...

Those guys still produced when they got time.

In Bender's case, he is almost pure potential, with no foundation of production to project from.  It doesn't make him a scrub, but at the same time he hasn't proven himself.

That's the thing though. His per minute production is good, he just hasn't gotten the minutes. But he does have previous years of data, albeit at a lower level, which we can use to project forward.

So you are saying that Bender could contribute more to a struggling team but because he wants to leave they don`t use him? I find it a bit hard to believe ....

Young players do get play time if they prove they can actually help their teams. Vezenkov at 19 was MVP of the Greek league , definately better than the Israeli league.
Porzingis was a 20mpg player in ACB and 2 times All young ACB team
Galinari and Belineli were stars in Italy , so where the Gasols.

BTW B Jenkins wasn`t just some guy who played in Italy. Was considered a top prospect because of his performance and because of his body type
So some of that is misleading. Looking at basketball-reference for context;
Ginobilli was 22 in his first year recorded there so I can't compare his stats at the age of 18.
Belinelli got 16mpg at 18 averaging 5.4ppg, 1.0rpg and 0.7apg
Porzingis was a 20mpg player when he was 19, when he was 18 he was a 15mpg player 6.7ppg, 2.8rpg, 0.3apg
Vezenkov I will concede, he's a good player. He got no Euroleague play however fwiw

Bender is projected a lot higher than those guys were at 18 which is where the argument is. Not should he be drafted but are we happy using the #3 pick on him as opposed to #15-17. I think yes because he has attributes that often lead to the making of a high level player. Mental drive, very good athleticism, high motor, good work ethic, good shot mechanics, improving shooting percentages to name a few.

I think the point with Jennings is that he was a good High school player in the US that would have received heavy minutes on an NCAA team. However in Europe he received fewer minutes. The comparison being that if Bender had been in the American system then he would have received a larger role on a college team and there would be fewer questions on him deserving the #3 pick

Starting with your last point. A lot of ifs don`t you thing? Can you draft like this? The fact is that he failed to get minutes in a very bad team against very poor opposition. And (repeating myself again) he isn`t much better facing other 18yo. 
Take a look at this statline European U18 championship 2015
PF : 16ppg 8rpg 5apg  32% 3p , MVP  (while not 100% ready)

This is what IMHO a top pick should look like against guys in his age. But i  can`t find anything comparable by Bender.  (btw the player is Charalampopoulos, great player but not NBA body)

I didn`t mention Ginobili cause as you said it he was a bit of a late bloomer. But he was drafted 57th overall not 3rd!As for the others (and with a little search i can find many more examples) you are making my point. The all have better (even a little) stats in much tougher league Unless you are honestly comparing ACB and the Italian league to the Israeli league. NBA vs NBDL ......

Yes there are ifs and buts. I wouldn't draft like that, but if I were a scout I'd have far more info on a highly touted prospect like Bender than some per game stats on basketball-reference. Aren't people at all curious why he's ranked so high? Why he's the consensus #3? Or do you think that the people who are really in the know have lost their minds? And it's not Porzingis hype before you start...

Sorry I read Galinari as Ginobilli for some reason.. I'm not going to make excuses for him, I've covered before why he has struggled for minutes this year. However he comes into the workout season as the incumbent in the #3 slot and will need good workouts to justify it. That's when we'll start to have some clarity on whether the hype is justified or not.

Please don`t refer to the scouts as Gods.... I won`t argue that they definitely are more qualified than me but there are far too many misses with Eurotalents.

Also i am just quoting stats.... I follow euroleague and i follow youth tournaments. I have ACTUALLY watched him play.

IF he kills it in the workouts then draft him first. But today Bender shouldn`t be anywhere near the lottery.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #53 on: May 05, 2016, 09:45:29 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Sounds about right.

The thing that amuses me is that nobody really has much to say about Bender that makes him sound outstanding.  Even the guys here who promote the idea of taking him at #3 don't seem to make an especially strong case for it.

1) He's seven feet tall
2) He's fairly athletic for a seven footer
3) He has decent shooting mechanics
4) He's a pretty good perimeter defender for a seven footer
5) He's an above average passer and ball handler for a seven footer
6) He has a good motor and work ethic

Every bit of writing you ever see on Bender is smothered with adjectives like "fairly", "decent", "pretty good", "above average" - and more then anything "potential". 

Pretty much everybody acknowledges that he is not even remotely close to NBA ready, and that he'd be a long work in progress.  Everybody prays that he will realise this 'potential' because right now that's pretty much all he is.

Bender appears to have the foundational skills to ensure that in time, he will eventually become an NBA calibre player.  That's all well and good, but we are talking about a #3 pick here.   

You don't gamble a #3 pick on guys who are years away from 'hopefully' becoming effective NBA players just because you think they might have some hidden upside.  You gamble on guys like when you fall back into the 14-20 range, when all the "sure things" are gone.  That's why guys like Giannis, Gobert and Whiteside were taken so late in the draft - high risk, high upside.  Nobody was wasting a top 5 pick on those guys.  Not just Ainge - nobody.

Right now Bender is firmly in Labissiere territory - very raw big man who has some nice foundational skills, solid athleticism, and who you hope (with a bit of luck) could surprise you and become really good players.  In fact I think Labissiere has a better chance of making it then Bender does, to be honest.  I wouldn't throw away a top 5 pick on either of them, but I'd take the gamble on Labissiere with the Mavs pick probably, if he's still there.

There;s just nothing at all elite about Bender's game.  His most promising talent is probably his ability to defend against quicker perimeter players, but while that is a nice trait to have it's hardly the type of trait that breeds superstars.  Not unless you can also prove you're calable of being a quality scorer, and Bender right now hasn't proven that at all.

I think the best case for Bender is a slightly taller Al Horford.  Nice player, but at #3 I want somebody who has the potential to be a bonafide All-Star.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #54 on: May 05, 2016, 09:55:57 AM »

Offline hpantazo

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I think we have to ask ourselves when we look at Bender "will he be better than Olynyk"?

I don't think so.

I was high on Porzingis , I was, and still am, high on Saric. Not so much on Bender. I think he will be decent, i.e. KO level, but that's not what you want in a top 5 pick

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #55 on: May 05, 2016, 09:58:58 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Nice. He doesn't look like a SAS sort of pick.

R.C. Buford isn't stupid enough to draft Bender.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #56 on: May 05, 2016, 10:02:44 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I think we have to ask ourselves when we look at Bender "will he be better than Olynyk"?

I don't think so.

I was high on Porzingis , I was, and still am, high on Saric. Not so much on Bender. I think he will be decent, i.e. KO level, but that's not what you want in a top 5 pick

Bingo.

I could see him becoming a bit of a Jerebko type.  Again I like Jerebko, but not with a top 5 pick.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #57 on: May 05, 2016, 10:38:31 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Sounds about right.

The thing that amuses me is that nobody really has much to say about Bender that makes him sound outstanding.  Even the guys here who promote the idea of taking him at #3 don't seem to make an especially strong case for it.

1) He's seven feet tall
2) He's fairly athletic for a seven footer
3) He has decent shooting mechanics
4) He's a pretty good perimeter defender for a seven footer
5) He's an above average passer and ball handler for a seven footer
6) He has a good motor and work ethic

Every bit of writing you ever see on Bender is smothered with adjectives like "fairly", "decent", "pretty good", "above average" - and more then anything "potential". 

Pretty much everybody acknowledges that he is not even remotely close to NBA ready, and that he'd be a long work in progress.  Everybody prays that he will realise this 'potential' because right now that's pretty much all he is.

Bender appears to have the foundational skills to ensure that in time, he will eventually become an NBA calibre player.  That's all well and good, but we are talking about a #3 pick here.   

You don't gamble a #3 pick on guys who are years away from 'hopefully' becoming effective NBA players just because you think they might have some hidden upside.  You gamble on guys like when you fall back into the 14-20 range, when all the "sure things" are gone.  That's why guys like Giannis, Gobert and Whiteside were taken so late in the draft - high risk, high upside.  Nobody was wasting a top 5 pick on those guys.  Not just Ainge - nobody.

Right now Bender is firmly in Labissiere territory - very raw big man who has some nice foundational skills, solid athleticism, and who you hope (with a bit of luck) could surprise you and become really good players.  In fact I think Labissiere has a better chance of making it then Bender does, to be honest.  I wouldn't throw away a top 5 pick on either of them, but I'd take the gamble on Labissiere with the Mavs pick probably, if he's still there.

There;s just nothing at all elite about Bender's game.  His most promising talent is probably his ability to defend against quicker perimeter players, but while that is a nice trait to have it's hardly the type of trait that breeds superstars.  Not unless you can also prove you're calable of being a quality scorer, and Bender right now hasn't proven that at all.

I think the best case for Bender is a slightly taller Al Horford.  Nice player, but at #3 I want somebody who has the potential to be a bonafide All-Star.

Those 6 points sound to me like a solid base for an 18 to develop into a star. On that last sentence "at #3 I want somebody who has the potential to be a bonafide All-Star" who is that? Who else is there?

Jaylen Brown is a known risk because of his poor shooting and the struggles he has driving to the basket. I like him, he'd be my #4 pick, but he's still a risk.
Jamaal Murray is a good scorer but lacks the athleticism to be truly elite. I'd also question whether he would be able to develop on the Celtics like he would somewhere else.
Buddy Hield is a scorer but I'm yet to be sold on the fact that against physically superior players he will be as effective. He's not Steph Curry good with his shots, he comes across to me as a complementary piece when developed rather than a star.
Kris Dunn? I can't see him reaching the upper echelons of the PG role which is probably the deepest position in the NBA at the minute.

There are questions over Bender, those of us that support him have accepted that. There are also significant questions over each of the other candidates for the #3 spot. In last year's draft I don't think Bender goes top 10, I think he'd probably drop close to #20. However he isn't in last years draft, he's in this one. No matter who you pick at #3 the chances are they aren't a "bonafide All star", Bender has as much chance or more than the others though.

Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #58 on: May 05, 2016, 10:40:16 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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But his stats do not show that he does more than hover on the perimeter and shoot threes.  This alleged athleticism does not translate into a ton of blocks for him.   His blocks have went down over the course of his career.   They do not translate into a bunch of steals.   This shows me that he does not like playing defense.

This shows me that you don't understand defense. 
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Re: Dragen Bender not (yet) invited to NBA Combine
« Reply #59 on: May 05, 2016, 10:57:36 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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once again:

Bender is not a scrub. But he hasn`t shown ANYTHING good enough to be top3 pick.

Bender didn`t get minutes playing for a bad team against even worse competition. how many times have you watched Macabi this season?

Bender against other players in his age didn`t make the difference.

Scouts try to avoid another Giannis pick. Nobody wants to be the guy that missed again a 7ft playmaker...

This, in a nutshell. 

I hope to god Danny doesn't waste the highest pick we have had in probably 20 years on Bender.

Just to amuse myself, I called an advance scout I've known for 20 years with a team that's still playing, and has a much more consistent draft record than Ainge's.

His take on Bender: "Some club will be stupid enough to overpay for him the draft. It won't be us."

I asked him what he'd heard about the Celtics and Bender: "Nothing."

Sounds about right.

The thing that amuses me is that nobody really has much to say about Bender that makes him sound outstanding.  Even the guys here who promote the idea of taking him at #3 don't seem to make an especially strong case for it.

1) He's seven feet tall
2) He's fairly athletic for a seven footer
3) He has decent shooting mechanics
4) He's a pretty good perimeter defender for a seven footer
5) He's an above average passer and ball handler for a seven footer
6) He has a good motor and work ethic

Every bit of writing you ever see on Bender is smothered with adjectives like "fairly", "decent", "pretty good", "above average" - and more then anything "potential". 

Pretty much everybody acknowledges that he is not even remotely close to NBA ready, and that he'd be a long work in progress.  Everybody prays that he will realise this 'potential' because right now that's pretty much all he is.

Bender appears to have the foundational skills to ensure that in time, he will eventually become an NBA calibre player.  That's all well and good, but we are talking about a #3 pick here.   

You don't gamble a #3 pick on guys who are years away from 'hopefully' becoming effective NBA players just because you think they might have some hidden upside.  You gamble on guys like when you fall back into the 14-20 range, when all the "sure things" are gone.  That's why guys like Giannis, Gobert and Whiteside were taken so late in the draft - high risk, high upside.  Nobody was wasting a top 5 pick on those guys.  Not just Ainge - nobody.

Right now Bender is firmly in Labissiere territory - very raw big man who has some nice foundational skills, solid athleticism, and who you hope (with a bit of luck) could surprise you and become really good players.  In fact I think Labissiere has a better chance of making it then Bender does, to be honest.  I wouldn't throw away a top 5 pick on either of them, but I'd take the gamble on Labissiere with the Mavs pick probably, if he's still there.

There;s just nothing at all elite about Bender's game.  His most promising talent is probably his ability to defend against quicker perimeter players, but while that is a nice trait to have it's hardly the type of trait that breeds superstars.  Not unless you can also prove you're calable of being a quality scorer, and Bender right now hasn't proven that at all.

I think the best case for Bender is a slightly taller Al Horford.  Nice player, but at #3 I want somebody who has the potential to be a bonafide All-Star.

Those 6 points sound to me like a solid base for an 18 to develop into a star. On that last sentence "at #3 I want somebody who has the potential to be a bonafide All-Star" who is that? Who else is there?

Jaylen Brown is a known risk because of his poor shooting and the struggles he has driving to the basket. I like him, he'd be my #4 pick, but he's still a risk.
Jamaal Murray is a good scorer but lacks the athleticism to be truly elite. I'd also question whether he would be able to develop on the Celtics like he would somewhere else.
Buddy Hield is a scorer but I'm yet to be sold on the fact that against physically superior players he will be as effective. He's not Steph Curry good with his shots, he comes across to me as a complementary piece when developed rather than a star.
Kris Dunn? I can't see him reaching the upper echelons of the PG role which is probably the deepest position in the NBA at the minute.

There are questions over Bender, those of us that support him have accepted that. There are also significant questions over each of the other candidates for the #3 spot. In last year's draft I don't think Bender goes top 10, I think he'd probably drop close to #20. However he isn't in last years draft, he's in this one. No matter who you pick at #3 the chances are they aren't a "bonafide All star", Bender has as much chance or more than the others though.

We will have to agree to disagree.  I think Bender's chances of becoming a star are very, very low.

Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, Korkmaz - all have far higher upside then Bemder IMHO.  Same with Labissiere, though he's a high risk.  I'm not even wholly convinced that Bender has more upside then Poetlyl.