Author Topic: Great read : Rich Levine debunking 5 offseason myths about the Celtics  (Read 4100 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Drucci

  • Global Moderator
  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7223
  • Tommy Points: 439
Here is a snippet of the article but it's really worth reading in its entirety, he makes great points about myths (or, in some cases, overreactions) that have fueled quite a few debates on these very boards :

Quote
What follows is an attempt to size up and eliminate five myths you’ll be hearing about the Celtics this offseason before the narrative air strikes crash down and incinerate your brain:

No. 1: The Celtics Will Never Land a Big-Time Free Agent

You know how it goes: The Celtics will never land a big-time free agent because they never have … because it’s cold, because of taxes, because of racism. But here’s the truth about the Celtics and free agency: The team was over the salary cap from 1997 until July 10, 2015.

Writing on Reddit in 2015, Ryan Bernardoni did a great job of breaking down Boston’s journey out from cap hell; the bottom line is that the Celtics were never in the running for serious free agents in large part because they could never afford one.

Even if that wasn’t the case — even if money wasn’t an issue — by my count only 15 big-time free agents have switched teams in the last 20 years. What about the ones that re-signed with their old team? Shouldn’t we count them? Sure, but in that case we need to count Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen on the Celtics’ tab and the whole argument disappears. So let’s look at the 15 who did change cities:[...]

Offline Evantime34

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11942
  • Tommy Points: 764
  • Eagerly Awaiting the Next Fantasy Draft
Very good article, tp for posting.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Offline mef730

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4422
  • Tommy Points: 907
TP. Nothing like an article that tells me what I want to hear, even if I disagree with half of it.

Mike

Offline Snakehead

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6846
  • Tommy Points: 448
TP. Nothing like an article that tells me what I want to hear, even if I disagree with half of it.

Mike

haha I was going to say.  Mostly good, but by the time it becomes a part Patriots article I think the homerism is coming out some.
"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Offline TheSundanceKid

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2493
  • Tommy Points: 199
Great article. I particularly appreciate the points on Thomas and the Nets picks

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17837
  • Tommy Points: 2661
  • bammokja
tp for the article. hopefully it heads off at least a few of those tired posts about celtics and free agents we see so often here.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Offline Casperian

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3501
  • Tommy Points: 545
TP. Nothing like an article that tells me what I want to hear, even if I disagree with half of it.

Mike

Exactly, TP.
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

3 down, 7 to go.

Offline Granath

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2154
  • Tommy Points: 567
TP.

And the author is spot on with every point of his.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Offline Ed Hollison

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 619
  • Tommy Points: 195
The best point of the article was this:

"the three biggest free-agent movers of the last two seasons went to CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE and SAN ANTONIO."

Stop thinking the problem is the city of Boston. It's not. Stars will go to places where they can win. And now we've got one of the most respected coaches in the league, a well-run ownership team and farsighted GM, a boatload of young guys and draft picks coming up, and a 48-win team with two max FA slots open.
"A thought of hatred must be destroyed by a more powerful thought of love."

http://fruittreeblog.com

Online Vermont Green

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11228
  • Tommy Points: 860
Mostly agree but the Celtics do have too may draft picks this year.  Eight is too many to make picks with.

Offline Evantime34

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11942
  • Tommy Points: 764
  • Eagerly Awaiting the Next Fantasy Draft
Mostly agree but the Celtics do have too may draft picks this year.  Eight is too many to make picks with.
That's what trades and draft & stash foreign players are for.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17837
  • Tommy Points: 2661
  • bammokja
Mostly agree but the Celtics do have too may draft picks this year.  Eight is too many to make picks with.
only three have guaranteed contracts. also, no mandates that the celtics keep and use all eight picks. they are assests and can be used a number of ways.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Offline Snakehead

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6846
  • Tommy Points: 448
Mostly agree but the Celtics do have too may draft picks this year.  Eight is too many to make picks with.
only three have guaranteed contracts. also, no mandates that the celtics keep and use all eight picks. they are assests and can be used a number of ways.

Yeah that's true but when you have so many picks you can get fleeced a little in a trade I think.

That is what it is.  It was the right move to get all these picks.
"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Offline Evantime34

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11942
  • Tommy Points: 764
  • Eagerly Awaiting the Next Fantasy Draft
Mostly agree but the Celtics do have too may draft picks this year.  Eight is too many to make picks with.
only three have guaranteed contracts. also, no mandates that the celtics keep and use all eight picks. they are assests and can be used a number of ways.
Even the guaranteed contracts aren't necessarily guaranteed to be on the roster. If the C's select a player who is willing to stay overseas with a first then they don't need to pay that player next year.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Offline Casperian

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3501
  • Tommy Points: 545
Saying the Celtics never signed a big time free agent because they never had enough cap space is like me saying I never got to hook up with Megan Fox because I never met her. It's a ridiculous strawman that doesn't address the real argument why it's hard for the Celtics to sign one of the big fish.

First, you have to make the distinction between star FA and superstar FA. Klay Thompson is a star, Steph Curry is a superstar. When people say the Celtics have a hard time signing big name FAs, they mean players in the superstar category. Does that mean the Celtics are a terrible franchise, or that Boston is a horrible place to live? No, of course not. I've never been to Boston myself, but by all accounts, the city looks beautiful, and the Celtics are a top organization in the NBA. What they mean is, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, as on the rare occasion that a superstar becomes available, only one team in the NBA actually gets to sign him, and the overall package the Celtics can offer, while very good, probably isn't enough to win the player's signature in the end.

Now, why do people say that?
That's because pretty much all players, whether they are superstars, stars or bench warmers, value two things above anything else: money and winning. "Wait", you say, "that's precisely my argument. As long as we beat out the other teams in these two categories, why shoudn't we be able to sign a superstar?" Simple, because of the difference between star and superstar.

When Klay Thompson hits free agency, half of the teams in the NBA will offer him the max. He is that good. When Steph Curry hits free agency, every team in the NBA wants to offer him the max. They would bend over backwards, move heaven and earth, and explore every loophole in the CBA, no matter how small, to make it happen. Since you can't offer anything more than the fix max salary, money simply isn't an issue when trying to sign a superstar FA.

That leaves "winning".
"Hold on", you say, "I get the whole money thing, but why shouldn't we be able to put a good team around, say, Kevin Durant? You add Durant to this team, and we're one of the very best teams in the NBA, probably the best in the east." Again, because of the difference between star and superstar.

A superstar is a transformative kind of player, the type you can put on pretty much any team in the NBA, and you would see signifcant improvement. In some way, they bring the "winning" themselves. You put Kevin Durant on the 76ers, and they'd be an instant playoff contender in the east. "That's nonsense", you say, "no single player, no matter how good, can have that kind of impact. It takes a team to win." While that is all good and well, once you sign a player as good as Kevin Durant, it becomes much easier to put strong players around him. NBA players are like gravity, they're attracted by the biggest mass.

That means "winning", while still very important to any superstar FA, simply isn't a very good argument when you're trying to convince these players to sign with you, unless you already are a successful franchise.
What all of this combined means is, that when Superstar X is a free agent, received offers from other NBA teams, had talks with executives around the league, and now sits down to think about everything and come to a decision, the two things he should value above anything else, money and winning, all of a sudden aren't that dominant of a factor anymore, which, in turn, means the other things he values (which are different from player to player) become a lot more important.

Does that mean the Celtics don't have any chance to sign such a player, ever? No, of course not. Considering the specifics of "Kevin Durant to Boston" right now, we might actually be in a very good position to capture his signature. Personally, I would say we score pretty darn high on many of the "lesser factors". Great coach, great GM, great fans, a playoff team, stable organization, enough assets and flexibility to acquire at least one more star to put next to Durant and still have something left. But don't be surprised if it doesn't happen. The odds are still against us.

Just don't give me that crap about "we never had cap space" as some kind of argument that we're actually a free agent destination.
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

3 down, 7 to go.