Author Topic: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.  (Read 4808 times)

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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2016, 04:21:43 PM »

Offline bdm860

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One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

I don't know if this is necessarily true.

Sure, I would say any trades involving draft picks are more likely to happen on draft night, but just because something is more likely to happen, doesn't mean the alternative is unlikely to happen, just less likely.   Does that make sense?

Especially the higher up you go in the draft where there is less fluctuation about who gets drafted where.  Simmons is #1, Ingram is #2, Bender/Murray/Brown/Dunn will all go in between #3-#8.

If Boston ends up with #3 and drafts Bender, they can still trade him to Chicago later if Chicago had interest in Bender.  The only problem that would arise is if Boston drafts Bender, but Chicago really wanted Murray.  The higher your draft pick, the less likely this is to be a problem (since it's believed everybody is taking Simmons #1 and Ingram #2).

It's possible that the C's could play it safe, make the pick, but still have potential trade lined up if Durant agreed to sign and still make the potential trade part of their pitch to Durant.

This could be very similar to LeBron agreeing to come to Cleveland as long as Cleveland agrees to trade Wiggins for Love (which happened well after the draft).

Yeah I get that.  Ideally, we'd wait until after getting assurance from Durant before making any moves.

I think the reason people think a deal needs to get done on draft night is because of the belief that other teams are going hard after Butler.  There was a rumor here that the Lakers were prepared to trade their top 3 pick + Clarkson in an offer for Butler.  So if there's a bidding war with grand dreams of Durant, Boston might have to jump on a trade on draft night.

I'm just saying the entire premise is wonky.  I don't agree that removing guys like Bradley, Smart and the pick in favor of Butler makes our situation more desirable for Durant.  If Butler was a guarantee to get Durant, the Bulls would just sign Durant.

How much of a market do you think there is for Butler and what do you think other teams will offer.  The only teams I've really heard are Celtics, Magic, and Lakers.  Not that I don't think a lot of teams would want Butler, but more of that I don't think a lot of teams are in position to acquire him (as in a team looking to win now that can send back some combination of picks + young assets + young vets).

If the Lakers lose their pick, does it take them out of the conversation? Top 3 pick + Clarkson seems a little light if the pick is #3. Top 3 pick + Randle?  Top 3 pick + Russell?  Straight swap for Randle or Russell?  Their future pick situation is complicated owing firsts to Philly and Orlando.

Orlando has a few options with so many young guys (Oladipo, Payton, Gordon, Hezonja) and some younger vets (Ilyasova and Vucevic).  Oladipo + #11 + Ilyasova + future first?  They also get a first from the Lakers at some point in '18 or '19.

Milwaukee has lot of interesting pieces and is probably looking to win now.  Minnesota's probably not ready to make the leap yet, but could they get him for something centered around #10 + LaVine + Muhammad/Dieng + a 2020 first?

Celtics are weaker than the competition in the young asset part, but can offer more/better picks + young vets (if Chicago is even interested in that).  What do you see the potential competition offering?

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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2016, 04:55:48 PM »

Offline mctyson

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One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

I can't believe that any legitimate Celtics fan or basketball writer would propose such an insanely lop-sided trade. 

I am in general agreement with you LarBrd33.  I would much rather keep our players, keep our pick (especially if it's top 2), and sign Horford to a 4-year max deal than trade away most of our future for Jimmy Butler.  Why is everyone so obsessed with Butler all of a sudden?  He is a good player but PLEASE he is no Ray Allen.

I will also note here that I don't think Durant is going to leave OKC.  So trading all of that with the idea that Durant is going to follow is basically asking for a miracle.



Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2016, 05:05:01 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I think our chance of getting Durant is so minimal that in order to have a opportunity to get him we need to improve our team immediately.

The C's as currently constructed don't have enough to entice Durant to leave the only team he's known. I don't think a rookie even if it's the number one pick will help convince Durant because rookies are not a known quantity.
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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2016, 05:47:11 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

I can't believe that any legitimate Celtics fan or basketball writer would propose such an insanely lop-sided trade. 

I am in general agreement with you LarBrd33.  I would much rather keep our players, keep our pick (especially if it's top 2), and sign Horford to a 4-year max deal than trade away most of our future for Jimmy Butler.  Why is everyone so obsessed with Butler all of a sudden?  He is a good player but PLEASE he is no Ray Allen.

I will also note here that I don't think Durant is going to leave OKC.  So trading all of that with the idea that Durant is going to follow is basically asking for a miracle.
The price will be steep for him.  I've actually seen someone suggest the price might be Bradley + Crowder + the Brooklyn pick + Smart + a future Brooklyn pick.

Butler is overrated right now.  Also, another point I brought up in my article was that I think people are basing their perception of star trade value on the Andrew Wiggins/Kevin Love move.  Normally, you don't give up a phenom prospect in a trade for a star.  That only happened because of the LeBron situation. 

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2016, 06:05:52 PM »

Offline Irish Stew

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There's probably about 5 threads about Butler at this point.  We've seen it referenced in dozens of articles that Butler is the key to acquiring KD.  I don't agree with the premise.  I think (assuming he actually leaves OKC) you can convince Durant without having Butler in the fold.

Also, some of the trade ideas I see would actually make it impossible to use double-max cap space.  For instance, one of the most popular ideas I see is centered on the pick ending up top 2 and simply shipping out Amir + Jerebko and the pick for Butler.  If you did this, you'd still have 25 mil for signing Durant, but no longer have max room for acquiring a second star.  That then becomes counter-intuitive.  You're adding a star sidekick in Butler, but removing the possibility to add a star sidekick via free agency - all while losing a pick that could develop into a star in it's own right.
 
I read Ryan Bernardoni's (dangercart on Reddit) article in which he lays out a dream offseason acquiring Butler and still maintaining double-max cap room:  http://www.celticshub.com/2016/05/02/navigating-the-offseason/

One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

Quote from Ryan Bernardoni's article:
Quote
The bigger risk, and a definite possibility given the timing of the offseason, is trading away the Nets pick for that Butler or Cousins level player but then not having the other shoe drop. If you, for example, make the Butler trade for the Nets pick, Bradley, and Smart and then, failing to entice Durant, bring back Sullinger and add some other mid-tier veteran you’re pushing up your age and cost profile but not getting to the realm of title contenders.

He makes a good point here and it's one of the several reasons I'd prefer to just hang onto the picks/prospects and approach Durant in free agency with the team as-is.  I think the team is plenty appealing already and you can spell out all the potential follow-up moves to Durant directly.   I wrote a lengthy article about my rationalization for CLNS Radio here:  http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13678-boston-celtics-why-not-build-a-big-5

In it, I imagine a dream scenario in which Boston ends up with a team like:  Thomas, Ben Simmons (if the pick lands #1), Durant, Max Free Agent (Horford? Derozan?) + another impact star (Marc Gasol? Melo?). You could theoretically build a "Big 5" and depending on the price of that final impact star, you might be able to keep Smart and Crowder in the process.
Looking at this deal from Chicago's perspective: Why do I want 4 guards in return? I understand that Young might be able to play the 3, but he also might not be an NBA caliber player. It has always seemed to me that the oft reported proposal of Butler for Smart, Crowder, and Brooklyn 2016 makes sense and is painful for both teams, the mark of a fair trade. It also gives us the opportunity for two max contracts in free agency. Butler has a below market long term contract that makes him even more valuable.

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2016, 06:51:33 PM »

Offline ssspence

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One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

I can't believe that any legitimate Celtics fan or basketball writer would propose such an insanely lop-sided trade. 

I am in general agreement with you LarBrd33.  I would much rather keep our players, keep our pick (especially if it's top 2), and sign Horford to a 4-year max deal than trade away most of our future for Jimmy Butler.  Why is everyone so obsessed with Butler all of a sudden?  He is a good player but PLEASE he is no Ray Allen.

I will also note here that I don't think Durant is going to leave OKC.  So trading all of that with the idea that Durant is going to follow is basically asking for a miracle.
The price will be steep for him.  I've actually seen someone suggest the price might be Bradley + Crowder + the Brooklyn pick + Smart + a future Brooklyn pick.

Butler is overrated right now.  Also, another point I brought up in my article was that I think people are basing their perception of star trade value on the Andrew Wiggins/Kevin Love move.  Normally, you don't give up a phenom prospect in a trade for a star.  That only happened because of the LeBron situation.

Market dictates the value. There's no team that would offer anything close to this for Butler, who is one year removed from a max extension, yet somehow has found his way onto the trade market. Not exactly a seller's leverage scenario.

No one really even has the assets. Butler would probably hold out if traded to Philly.

But, none of this matters until the draft lottery. There have been a million trade proposals here since the end of the season that involve the BKN pick, and none of them matter because no one yet knows whether that pick will be 1st or 5th or whatever.

Folks just need to sit tight for two weeks.
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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2016, 07:09:15 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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One of the biggest points he makes is that Boston would be taking a bit of a risk since any Butler trade is most likely to happen on draft night and draft night is weeks before we can officially talk to Durant.  His hypothetical trade offer was the Brooklyn 1st, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, RJ Hunter, and James Young for Jimmy Butler.

I can't believe that any legitimate Celtics fan or basketball writer would propose such an insanely lop-sided trade. 

I am in general agreement with you LarBrd33.  I would much rather keep our players, keep our pick (especially if it's top 2), and sign Horford to a 4-year max deal than trade away most of our future for Jimmy Butler.  Why is everyone so obsessed with Butler all of a sudden?  He is a good player but PLEASE he is no Ray Allen.

I will also note here that I don't think Durant is going to leave OKC.  So trading all of that with the idea that Durant is going to follow is basically asking for a miracle.
The price will be steep for him.  I've actually seen someone suggest the price might be Bradley + Crowder + the Brooklyn pick + Smart + a future Brooklyn pick.

Butler is overrated right now.  Also, another point I brought up in my article was that I think people are basing their perception of star trade value on the Andrew Wiggins/Kevin Love move.  Normally, you don't give up a phenom prospect in a trade for a star. That only happened because of the LeBron situation.

This. If it's top 2, do not trade the pick (unless Danny absolutely sees nothing whatsoever in Ingram or Simmons). They'll likely both be very good players in the NBA, and it's not worth trading that pick, along with another of our best rotation players, for a 20ppg scorer who can also defend. That pick alone could become just as good.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2016, 07:14:56 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Re: ssspence - I think the assumption in many of these trade ideas is that it lands somewhere between 3-5 (6 is also possible, but very unlikely). If we somehow get 1-2, there will be many amendments to previous trade ideas and our [Cs fans] stance on the value of the pick will increase drastically - as we will officially be in a position of 'power'.

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2016, 07:21:01 PM »

Offline Who

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You don't get Jimmy Butler to get Kevin Durant.
You get Jimmy Butler to get Jimmy Butler.

The guy is an excellent player and big time addition to any team. There are lots of ways forward to build a title contender with Jimmy Butler here with or without Kevin Durant. The decision to acquire Butler should not be about Durant.

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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You don't get Jimmy Butler to get Kevin Durant.
You get Jimmy Butler to get Jimmy Butler.

The guy is an excellent player and big time addition to any team. There are lots of ways forward to build a title contender with Jimmy Butler here with or without Kevin Durant. The decision to acquire Butler should not be about Durant.

True, but at what cost, is the question for many, including me
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2016, 07:32:30 PM »

Offline loco_91

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I agree. If I'm pitching to Durant, my pitch is not that we're going to win the finals next year. No plausible combination of moves will make us favorites to beat either GS or SA. My pitch would be that we will be competitive in the East right away, and we will have a very long window to contend, adding + developing elite young talent, getting better every year as GS and SA decline.

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2016, 08:07:06 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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My thoughts on this are that

(a) What we would send in the form of players would depend on the outcome of the lottery -- i.e., if we are trading the #1 or #2, we are sending more 'salary matching' than we are 'player value'.

(b) A deal doesn't actually have to happen on draft night.  The pick can be made and then traded later, ala Wiggins for Love two seasons ago.   If the pick is only a 3-6, then the deal may have to happen draft night.  But if it is 1 or 2, then whomever we are trading it to would probably wait for Danny to get all his ducks in order.

(c) Amir's contract isn't necessarily going to get voided.  It probably will.  But there is a small but non-zero chance he would get used instead as an expiring - if the deal happens after July 3, which it would need to if a deal is to wait on FA confirmation, which can't happen until after July 7.  While as an expiring it's less attractive than as voided, instant cap space, Amir has decent player value as a one-year big man with no long-term commitment.  An extra draft pick would be sent along in this case, as incentive.

(d) Don't overlook the potential use of Sully and/or Zeller as sign & trade fodder.

A lot depends on the lottery.  Things won't start to take shape until after May 17.  Until then, there are too many variables.
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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2016, 08:11:13 PM »

Offline chambers

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We aren't giving up the farm for Butler. He's a top 10-15 player, but Danny won't sacrifice the organization's future just to appeal to Durant.

This is Danny Ainge we're talking about. He's not giving up multiple crucial pieces to a championship run in a lopsided trade.

If the Bulls are rebuilding, they are going to want young players and picks so they can build their own utopia.

Nets pick 16'+
Nets pick 17 swap+
C's pick 16'
Rozier+
Hunter.

Maybe swap Smart or Bradley for that 17' Nets pick swap.

Just consider that Butler will be a target but if the Bulls want too much, Danny won't succumb just for the sake of appealing to Durant.
These aren't crappy mid first round picks and 2nd round picks like the Winslow draft night trade, these are the real deal with very good picks and solid sophomore players.

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Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2016, 08:17:08 PM »

Offline greece66

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We aren't giving up the farm for Butler. He's a top 10-15 player, but Danny won't sacrifice the organization's future just to appeal to Durant.

This is Danny Ainge we're talking about. He's not giving up multiple crucial pieces to a championship run in a lopsided trade.

If the Bulls are rebuilding, they are going to want young players and picks so they can build their own utopia.

Nets pick 16'+
Nets pick 17 swap+
C's pick 16'
Rozier+
Hunter.

Maybe swap Smart or Bradley for that 17' Nets pick swap.

Just consider that Butler will be a target but if the Bulls want too much, Danny won't succumb just for the sake of appealing to Durant.
These aren't crappy mid first round picks and 2nd round picks like the Winslow draft night trade, these are the real deal with very good picks and solid sophomore players.

TP for the detailed post

IMO Butler is easily a top 20 player but is far and away from the top 5 elite (KD, KAT, PG, LBJ, Curry is my top 5 with Harden and Davis following very closely). This means that you can get (probably much cheaper) a player that gives you 80-90% of what Butler offers, and this takes away much of the attraction.

Re: I don't think we need Butler to get Durant.
« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2016, 08:18:45 PM »

Offline td450

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We have a different situation depending on the draft position we get, and while we don't know what that is now, we will know prior to any move.

Our weakest positions currently are the four and five. Signing Durant would mean he would take 35 minutes at the three.

Out of the draftee possibilities, I would think Simmons could become an exciting complement to Durant, so if we get a shot at him, I would hope we just keep him. Simmons would provide a major talent upgrade right away at the four, and playing with Isaiah, Bradley and Durant would make things easy for him. He would make us better immediately.

Ingram can becoming a great player too, but he is incompatible with a Durant signing, so he would need to be traded if we got him.

Bender might work positionally, but it probably isn't great to have rail thin starters at the three and four.

All the other likely possibilities would have to take minutes from a pretty good player, and would likely require an additional trade of Bradley, Smart and/or Crowder to work.

So to me, we get Simmons or its best we trade the pick.