The likelihood Ainge takes Thon Maker with 1 of his 5 2nd round picks...

[mrceltics2013]

...is high, in my opinion. You can't teach 7'1" with a handle. Worth a draft-n-stash if he can be had past the Wolves pick.

Every time someone say "you can't teach" I instantly just think FAB MELO.

[Celtics4ever]

Fab Melo would have been bearable as a second round pick, though.   Not as a first, it was terrible.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Thomas Wamukota please...

[slamtheking]

I doubt he lasts until the second round since I think some team with a pick in the late 20's will take a flyer on him but if he last until the second round and is willing to take a Marcus-Thornton-type deal to play in Europe for a year or two, he's worth a second round flyer.

[jbp126]

...is high, in my opinion. You can't teach 7'1" with a handle. Worth a draft-n-stash if he can be had past the Wolves pick.

Every time someone say "you can't teach" I instantly just think FAB MELO.

I understand Fab Melo was a bad pick but that shouldn't prevent us from taking flyers late in the draft on players with size. Skilled bigs will always be a commodity and if you can land an underdeveloped one in late in the first round (especially when you have multiple picks), you take a chance. Granted, they rarely work out and they can be total busts but the upside of a player at that point in the draft usually isn't super high (spare me the Draymond Green exception to the rule).

[acieEarl]

I remember seeing Maker video a couple years ago and he was suppose to be the next big thing. I guess the last year or so he's been exposed and really isn't that good. I wouldn't use a first maybe a second.

[gift]

I'd definitely use a second on him, especially in this draft.

[pearljammer10]

I think Thon goes in the 16-20 range....Doesn't make it to Round 2.

[sofutomygaha]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm concerned about how much Thon Maker is regressing. When he was 16 years old, he was 7'2" and he could shoot like a guard. Now, 2 years later, he has shrunk at least an inch and he can't shoot at all.

Remember, by the way, when the videos of him matching up with (and getting beat by) Skal Labissiere made everyone ooh and ahh? And now it turns out that Skal Labissiere kinda sucks actually... =)

[sofutomygaha]

...is high, in my opinion. You can't teach 7'1" with a handle. Worth a draft-n-stash if he can be had past the Wolves pick.

Every time someone say "you can't teach" I instantly just think FAB MELO.

YOU CAN'T TEACH FAB MELO

no one can

[mmmmm]

I remember seeing Maker video a couple years ago and he was suppose to be the next big thing. I guess the last year or so he's been exposed and really isn't that good. I wouldn't use a first maybe a second.

What exactly are you basing that on?   He hasn't really been available for most pro scouts to see, given that he's played a prep schedule this last year.  He was highly ranked on college recruiting boards (typically around 9th or so) until he recently decided to declare for the NBA.

FWIW: playing for the Athletic Institute (CAN) team this last year he played in 18 games, averaging 25.8 points, 14.3 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 blocks per game.  He also got to the FT line an average of 13 times per game.   Yes, that was against preps -- but at least against a pretty elite schedule.   Sure, it's not against NCAA or Spanish ACB competition, but I don't see how that performance leaves him 'exposed', though.  He's supposed to dominate those kids and he has.

He didn't have a great Nike Hoops Summit last summer, and that is what most folks are basing their downgrade of him on.   That was a long time ago.   He's not the same player -- no young kid is.  They are growing and changing too fast at that age.  The flip side of that Summit event is that Skal, who beat him out for the starting spot had the reverse effect, rocketing to the top of everybody's draft board ... only to slowly slide down ever since then.  Just as Skal probably was overrated based on that one event, Maker was probably underrated by that one event.  The difference is, everyone got to see Skal play in games over this last season and make that correction.  Maker has been out of site and so is still being assessed on data that is very old.

Whether he is worth expending a draft pick on?  I think that will be determined by the Combine and the pre-draft workouts.   I don't think we have enough information on him publicly right now to go by to make a call yeah or nay.

I trust Danny will do his due diligence and slot him into a tier somewhere on his board and if he makes sense to pick at one of his picks, he will pick him. 

[Tr1boy]

Very high. May have to use our third 1st for him

At 16 would be a reach

[CoachBo]

I remember seeing Maker video a couple years ago and he was suppose to be the next big thing. I guess the last year or so he's been exposed and really isn't that good. I wouldn't use a first maybe a second.

What exactly are you basing that on?   He hasn't really been available for most pro scouts to see, given that he's played a prep schedule this last year.  He was highly ranked on college recruiting boards (typically around 9th or so) until he recently decided to declare for the NBA.

FWIW: playing for the Athletic Institute (CAN) team this last year he played in 18 games, averaging 25.8 points, 14.3 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 blocks per game.  He also got to the FT line an average of 13 times per game.   Yes, that was against preps -- but at least against a pretty elite schedule.   Sure, it's not against NCAA or Spanish ACB competition, but I don't see how that performance leaves him 'exposed', though.  He's supposed to dominate those kids and he has.

He didn't have a great Nike Hoops Summit last summer, and that is what most folks are basing their downgrade of him on.   That was a long time ago.   He's not the same player -- no young kid is.  They are growing and changing too fast at that age.  The flip side of that Summit event is that Skal, who beat him out for the starting spot had the reverse effect, rocketing to the top of everybody's draft board ... only to slowly slide down ever since then.  Just as Skal probably was overrated based on that one event, Maker was probably underrated by that one event.  The difference is, everyone got to see Skal play in games over this last season and make that correction.  Maker has been out of site and so is still being assessed on data that is very old.

Whether he is worth expending a draft pick on?  I think that will be determined by the Combine and the pre-draft workouts.   I don't think we have enough information on him publicly right now to go by to make a call yeah or nay.

I trust Danny will do his due diligence and slot him into a tier somewhere on his board and if he makes sense to pick at one of his picks, he will pick him.

Indeed.

Maker doesn't wow me, but he looks like Jordan compared to Dragan Bender.

[IDreamCeltics]

Some quotes from the article linked to earlier in this thread:

There is no way this kid should be in this year’s draft,” one Eastern Conference scout told CSNNE.com. “He’s nowhere close to being ready to play or make any kind of impact that will help a team anytime soon. He’s one of those two years away from being two years away kind of players. If you take him near the end of the second round, he’s worth it. But a first-rounder? I just don’t see it.”

Another executive with a Western Conference team offered a similar assessment of Maker.

“He’s going to have to show some things that we haven’t seen yet, in workouts,” the executive told CSNNE.com. “Every draft has a player or two that you draft because he has upside, but he’s a project. That’s Thon Maker; a project with upside, the kind of upside that you’re probably not going to really see or really be helped by for years down the road.”

A second scout added, “He’s not ready for the NBA. Not even close. But this league drafts on potential and because of that, somebody will take him. It may not be until the second round, but he’ll be drafted by someone.”

[mef730]

p(M) = (p(D) / p(N))

Where:
p = probability of
M = Maker being drafted by the Celtics
D = Drafted before the Celtics 2nd rounder
N = Not drafted before the Celtics 2nd rounder

I wrote a program in BASIC, the only computer language that I ever looked at. It was >25 years ago, so excuse any errors.

10: Start first round
20: Go to pick #31
30: Is Maker still available? If Y goto 40. If N goto 50.
40: Draft him.
50: End.

Maker is a Top 10 pick

No

OP meant top 10 pick in the second round.

Mike