Boston Globe: Potential FA Targets

[Eddie20]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/04/30/can-celtics-land-kevin-durant-offseason/vgettMa6P2GahhmFO

The Celtics have salary cap space, a lottery pick coming in, are on the verge of a breakthrough with a young core featuring Thomas, Crowder, Marcus Smart, and Bradley, and feature one of the brighter coaching minds in the game.

So here is a list of the Celtics’ potential free agent targets, along with a percentage that these players actually don green next season.



Big-timers

Kevin Durant, Thunder — Why the heck not? The Celtics, in basketball terms, could be the perfect landing spot for Durant, who at 27 is trying to chase his first NBA title and needs to shake the tag of “best player never to win a championship.”

Let’s take a few things into account here: Durant has played in Seattle and Oklahoma City and has enjoyed his experience, so the lure of city life may not be as persuasive as with other free agents. Durant is a basketball historian and Ainge could sell him on being the next great Celtic, with an opportunity to have his jersey number eventually hanging in the rafters.

It will take quite a sales pitch, but Thomas said he’s more than willing to push Boston as a free agent destination. Durant is also close with former Celtic Kendrick Perkins, who has made known his admiration for the city of Boston. Durant wants to win. He wants a strong supporting cast and wants the right situation.

Chance: 10 percent.

Al Horford, Hawks — The question for the Hawks is whether they want Horford to play center for the future, because they already have Paul Millsap at power forward. Horford does not want to play center into his 30s, giving the Celtics a great opportunity to sell Horford on playing a “stretch four” type of position.

With Horford, the Celtics would have their staunch defender, rim protector, and perimeter shooter in his prime. According to Tom Heinsohn, Horford is not a great player, but he is a major upgrade at a position of need. Chance: 30 percent.

Dwight Howard, Rockets — OK, here’s the deal: Howard wants to be paid like a max player but isn’t a max player anymore. The Celtics could promise him more offensive touches and a much better atmosphere. But what Howard would they get for their $30 million? That’s the tricky part. It would have to be a short-term deal with hopes that Howard revives himself after a couple of poor years. Chance: 25 percent.

Hassan Whiteside, Heat — Whiteside will be able to field offers from any team and if the Celtics really believe in his defensive skills, they can offer a max contract. Whiteside is a defensive difference maker but he’s already 26 and has maturity issues. But just imagine how much the Celtics’ defense would improve with him in the middle. Chance: 20 percent.



Next tier

Kent Bazemore, Hawks — The Celtics showed interest in Bazemore when he was a free agent two years ago. He would provide athleticism at small forward, and he showed the Celtics how easily he can get to the basket during their playoff series. He made just $2 million this season so he could garner a 600 percent raise in free agency. But he’s only 26 and has improved exponentially over the past two years. Chance: 30 percent.

Al Jefferson, Hornets — Would the Celtics bring Big Al back to Boston? He’s 31 now and coming off one of the worst years of his career, but he would give the Celtics a real post presence and dependable scorer. But he doesn’t protect the rim and isn’t a staunch defender. But in limited minutes, Jefferson would give coach Brad Stevens someone who Thomas can dump the ball into in the post. Chance: 25 percent.

Harrison Barnes, Warriors (restricted) — Barnes appears ready for a more prominent role and the Celtics could make a bid for the swingman with the promise of a starting job. Crowder is the team’s current starting small forward but he could also move to power forward when Stevens employs small lineups. Chance: 20 percent.

Jamal Crawford, Clippers — The Celtics desperately need offense off the bench, and Crawford is a three-time Sixth Man of the Year. He doesn’t play much defense but the Celtics are a good defensive team that needs scoring punch. Crawford is a young 36 and a short-term deal may be a good fit. Chance: 35 percent.

Ryan Anderson, Pelicans — He is the stretch four that the Celtics could use. He is a proven shooter who is a career 37.7 percent from the 3-point line. He is also a decent rebounder for a finesse player. Anderson put pressure on defenses because of his offensive prowess. Chance: 35 percent.

Mirza Teletovic, Suns — Another long-range shooter who could come off the bench and drain 3-pointers. He wouldn’t make the Celtics a championship club but would be an upgrade from what they have. Chance: 30 percent.

Jared Dudley, Wizards — The former Boston College standout is a free agent again. He can stretch defenses and has a high basketball IQ. He would be a solid player coming off the bench but may not be a priority as the market begins drying up. Chance: 30 percent.

[Irish Stew]

TP for the interesting article. Of the "next tier" guys, only Anderson and Barnes really interests me right now, and that's only if we whiff on the big names in free agency or guys like Butler and Griffin in trades.

[Lucky17]

I love the percentages. Did the writer spin a wheel to come up with those numbers?

The only guy in the "next tier" that seems reasonable is Dudley. Everyone else is a poor fit and/or will be prohibitively expensive. When Wyc says two max FAs, I hope he's not considering one of these guys.

[Evantime34]

From the first list I would sign Horford or Durant no questions asked (obviously). I'm only signing Whiteside if we do some back ground digging and eventually feel confident he won't misbehave if he gets paid. I'd be fine with Dwight but not at the money he would want.

Dudley, and Teletovic seem like great bench options.

Bazemore is a good idea if we are moving one of our guards in a trade, but I think he's probably going to make way more than i'd be comfortable paying.

Jamal Crawford is too old, Ryan Anderson has too much injury risk.

I'd love Barnes, I think he's the type of guy who won't be worth his contract initially but by the end he will be good value.

[Granath]

Dwight Howard should be in the next tier down. I'm not interested in paying much for a big man with back problems whose entire game is based on his rapidly diminishing physical attributes.

A couple of guys beyond Whiteside / Hortford / Durant I think Danny may make a run at:

Festus Ezeli - Raw big man has talent and the Cs need help in the middle
Ryan Anderson - tailor made as a stretch 4 in Brad's offense.
Evan Fournier - Especially if he trades Bradley or doesn't resign Turner, I could see Danny going after this 40% 3 point shooting 23 year old.

[rondohondo]

Ha he is just picking random % and assigning them to a player, as if anyone could know what the chances really are .

What a joke

[jpotter33]

From the first list I would sign Horford or Durant no questions asked (obviously). I'm only signing Whiteside if we do some back ground digging and eventually feel confident he won't misbehave if he gets paid. I'd be fine with Dwight but not at the money he would want.

Dudley, and Teletovic seem like great bench options.

Bazemore is a good idea if we are moving one of our guards in a trade, but I think he's probably going to make way more than i'd be comfortable paying.

Jamal Crawford is too old, Ryan Anderson has too much injury risk.

I'd love Barnes, I think he's the type of guy who won't be worth his contract initially but by the end he will be good value.

Yeah, I would love to try and get a Teletovic type for off the bench. He's tough and shoots really well, which is exactly what we need off the bench, especially from the forward position.

[Tr1boy]

Everything is like 20-30 percent. What a joke

[heyvik]

Everything is like 20-30 percent. What a joke

agreed. this.

[Smart457]

I love the percentages. Did the writer spin a wheel to come up with those numbers?

The only guy in the "next tier" that seems reasonable is Dudley. Everyone else is a poor fit and/or will be prohibitively expensive. When Wyc says two max FAs, I hope he's not considering one of these guys.

lol I was thinking the same thing.

Maybe the writer is using advanced prediction stats and it's a very complex algorithm that he designed to come to those results. 

[Quetzalcoatl]

A lot of those would be disasters

[jambr380]

I love the percentages. Did the writer spin a wheel to come up with those numbers?

The only guy in the "next tier" that seems reasonable is Dudley. Everyone else is a poor fit and/or will be prohibitively expensive. When Wyc says two max FAs, I hope he's not considering one of these guys.

lol I was thinking the same thing.

Maybe the writer is using advanced prediction stats and it's a very complex algorithm that he designed to come to those results. 

I personally like how Crawford and Anderson have the highest percentages on the list (35% each). Weirdly random and makes it difficult to take the rest of the analyses seriously (which seem pretty reasonable without the percentages).

I am not sure who we will need to trade or how many roster spots we will have left over after picks, but Dudley seems like an obvious fit. I would also consider Bazemore if we don't re-sign Turner. Durant would be a dream.

[Onslaught]

The thought of Dwight Howard in Celtic green makes me throw up in my mouth. Not even if he paid the Celtics to play for them.

[D Dub]

In the event that a lot of the others (KD, Horford, Barnes) just resign with their current teams, and guys like Love/Cuz/Melo aren't on trade market--- Danny and Dwight could be the only two looking for dance partners...

[Onslaught]

In the event that a lot of the others (KD, Horford, Barnes) just resign with their current teams, and guys like Love/Cuz/Melo aren't on trade market--- Danny and Dwight could be the only two looking for dance partners...

Oh God, Melo? Now I threw up all over my keyboard.